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SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)

 
Hugh M Eye

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07/07/2012 01:46 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
Well, so disappointed. Didn't feel great yesterday and just didn't check in and ....

I MISSED THE X1.1 FLARE!!!!!!!!!!!

grumpy2 grumpy2 grumpy2 grumpy2 grumpy2 grumpy2 grumpy2
 Quoting: whiteangel


AAAAwwwwww, don't bum out, whaiteangel,hf we mat see more X's soon as this solar max seems to nearing a crescendo phase. Besides we saved all the pics, vids, and charts here for ya so you didn't miss anything.
whiteangel
also known at WA

User ID: 1775746
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07/07/2012 01:57 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
Well, so disappointed. Didn't feel great yesterday and just didn't check in and ....

I MISSED THE X1.1 FLARE!!!!!!!!!!!

grumpy2 grumpy2 grumpy2 grumpy2 grumpy2 grumpy2 grumpy2
 Quoting: whiteangel


AAAAwwwwww, don't bum out, whaiteangel,hf we mat see more X's soon as this solar max seems to nearing a crescendo phase. Besides we saved all the pics, vids, and charts here for ya so you didn't miss anything.
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


Thank you hon! I have been going through everything and cursing the rain for not getting here one day earlier. All the smoke in the air caused the problems and now feel better, of course, lol
Isaiah 5:20 KJV
Woe unto them that call evil good, and good evil; that put darkness for light, and light for darkness; that put bitter for sweet, and sweet for bitter!
Thread: Being Prepared - Updated Basic Food List On Page One
Hugh M Eye

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07/07/2012 02:14 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
I think the brief magnetic storm we had yesterday was from the early arrival of the first CME. It was a relatively small CME from 1513's C 9.3 flare and may have been speeded-up by all of the subsequent shocks behind it. The next CME is due tonight but I think it, too, may arrive earlier than predicted. This next one should have a stronger impact as it was from an M-flare (from1513) and was more Earth-directed. It could arrive at any time now IMO.

Event Issue Date: 2012-07-04 19:49:57.0 GMT
CME Arrival Time: 2012-07-08 06:10:15.0 GMT
Arival Time Confidence Level: ± 6 hours
Disturbance Duration: 12 hours

Disturbance Duration Confidence Level: ± 8 hours
Magnetopause Standoff Distance: 6.6 Re

[link to iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080]

It seems all of the 2 dozen or so CMEs from 1515 (including from the X1) were directed away from Earth but I think we'll see some unsettled to stormy conditions for a few days due to all of the Earth-facing Interplanetary shocks. Just a hunch. I'm still perplexed at the acute southern angle for all of these big CMEs. Also the impulsive short-duration of these flares is indicative of the lack of full-halo proton storm-producing CMEs as we've seen in the past from LDEs.

The ACE EPAM plot shows a nice rise in hi-energy electrons following the X-flare:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

The modest proton event seems to have peaked for now:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

SOHO solar wind data shows yesterday's spike in density:

[link to umtof.umd.edu]
Hugh M Eye

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07/07/2012 02:51 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
Latest HMI Intensitygram:

[link to jsoc.stanford.edu]

Latest Color Magnetogram:

[link to jsoc.stanford.edu]
Hugh M Eye

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07/07/2012 03:09 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
newsflashnewsflash
STAR'S PLANET-FORMING DISK MYSTERIOUSLY DISAPPEARS INTO THIN SPACE!

I Love A Mystery Dept:

"The star - designated TYC 8241 2652 and a young analog of our Sun - only a few years ago displayed all of the characteristics of hosting a solar system in the making. Now, it has transformed completely: very little of the warm dusty material thought to originate from collisions of rocky planets is apparent - it's a mystery that has astronomers baffled.

Carl Melis of the University of California, San Diego, led the discovery team, whose report is published in the July 5th issue of the journal Nature. He said, "It's like the classic magician's trick: now you see it, now you don't. Only in this case we're talking about enough dust to fill an inner solar system and it really is gone!"

Co-author Ben Zuckerman of the University of California Los Angeles, observed, "It's as if you took a conventional picture of the planet Saturn today and then came back two years later and found that its rings had disappeared."

More on this shocking discovery here:
[link to www.spacedaily.com]
wtfwtf
newsflashnewsflash
Anonymous Coward
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07/07/2012 03:26 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
hi good afternoon all.
psyoptics

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07/07/2012 03:55 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
Is the new big one already a BGD? :)
 Quoting: Kael

once they give it it's number this is a fast look at the SS
[link to sidc.oma.be]
as of now no number yet.
a good video editor can make anyone say anything the editor wants.
psyoptics

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07/07/2012 03:57 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
[link to spaceweather.com]

you would think a SS this big would get a NASA approved number by now!
maybe they think if they do not give it a number it will go away.

a good video editor can make anyone say anything the editor wants.
NiNzrez  (OP)

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07/07/2012 05:13 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 1271552


Well-done summary! More informative than Spaceweather.com's error-filled blurbs and regurgitated NASA press releases. Kudos.
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


ok ok ok i have to rant here for a moment about this site you just praised

-the 1st part of their report is mainly from solarham
(they do this a lot to solarham)

-the 2nd part is word for word c&p from SWPC
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

-the 3rd part (Sudden ionospheric disturbances) is word for word c&c from spaceweather.com for july 6
[link to spaceweather.com]

-the 4th part (new sunspot) again a word for word c&p from spaceweather.com for july 6th
[link to www.spaceweather.com]

thats all they do
report after report after effing report
all the solar reports anyone reads on their site, you HAVE ALREADY read elsewhere!
they see something solar happens, scan a quick google search and copy what looks good from others that bust their asses getting you all correct and fast info.
then they run to their site and PASTE it in all pretty to make a whole new report that they now try to call their own

now, if they stated that their reports were put together from reports found on the net, and maybe gave credited links back to the people they took the reports from, then it might be fine. i cant speak for those that wrote the reports and had them taken, some stuff writen is copyrited, i can only speak for myself

ya know how FAST i could put together a full report if i just ran around copying others hard work?!
but, then, it would not be my report now... would it?!

(not harshing on you HUGE, just venting some about this link, cause i knew they did this many many months back and have kept my mouth mostly shut about it. i couldnt do it anymore)
 Quoting: NiNzrez


NINz, thanks for the tip-off, I wasn't aware of that. But shame on me, I should've recognized the blurb from Spaceweather which I read more than once. Now I feel duped again,LOL. I very much enjoyed your rant.

If they plagiarize other writers without attribution and//or permission they're in violation of the law. That's why we quote snippets and give links or references to the original source. They should be shunned and driven from the web until they clean up their act. Selah.

linksucksanontool
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


hf
NiNzrez  (OP)

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07/07/2012 05:34 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
Expected CME Update:
this is my unofficial view
this because we have had so much activity with flares and CMEs that we would have to factor in Quantum entanglement.
We have talked about this in extent in the past here.
It is not just about the earth direction and size of a given CME, But there is a LOT of physics that plays into all this as well! Because of this, i do not have enough time to research into all the data and calculations before the arrival of the following CMEs.
So here we go :)

the ENLIL model is showing a hit from 2 CMEs starting around 00:30 UTC July 8th
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
right now, it is 21:07 UTC
That would make the shortest ETA for the 1st hit to be somewhere in around 3-4 hours (8-9 pm EST)
these CMEs would be 1 from July 4th
the 1st one we see here @ 01:24 UTC July 4th
[link to stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov]
the 2nd one we see here @ 23:54 UTC July 4th
[link to stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov]

Then we have the CME associated with the early July 7th X flare
[link to stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov]
We will see at least a glancing blow from this CME around late July 8th, into July 9th
we have the "Expected Events" list updated on the solar blog (on the right hand side)
[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]

Also lets note that there was a lot of CMEs between July 4th and today, July 7th, that could have been caught up at least partialy in a magnetic connection between earth and the sun. thus we could see some mass from these CMEs being caught up with the earth directed CME's and giving a combined hit. i would say we can expect at lease a Kp5 storm starting later tonight, that has the potential of reaching as high as a Kp8 at times, with the geomagnetic conditions being unsettled to Storm conditions over the period of the next 60hrs

With the ionospheric conditions being what they have been from the rash of M flares we have had over a 7 day period (33 M flares and 1 X flare as of the time of this post)combined with the heat wave we have had in North America this past week, i would caution as to the possibility of strong, strange storms for the period that the CMEs are expected to hit/arrive. Stay safe!

If i missed anything, please feel free to chim in and add your data so that we may have a complete run down of what to expect and when :)

Edit: I went ahead and put this into a Solar Alerts blog post so that it would easier to share for those who wish to do so :)
[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]

Last Edited by NiNzrez on 07/07/2012 07:33 PM
Anonymous Coward
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07/07/2012 06:40 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)

the ENLIL model is showing a hit from 2 CMEs starting around 00:30 UTC July 8th
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
right now, it is 21:07 UTC
That would make the shortest ETA for the 1st hit to be somewhere in around 3-4 hours (8-9 pm EST)
these CMEs would be 1 from July 4th
the 1st one occurring @ 01:24 UTC July 4th
[link to stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov]
the 2nd one occurring @ 23:54 UTC July 4th
[link to stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov]

Then we have the CME associated with the early July 7th X flare
[link to stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov]
We will see at least a glancing blow from this CME around late July 8th, into July 9th
we have the "Expected Events" list updated on the solar blog (on the right hand side)
[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]


 Quoting: NiNzrez


Is NASA's model saying differently?

[link to iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080]
NiNzrez  (OP)

User ID: 12844841
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07/07/2012 06:45 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)

the ENLIL model is showing a hit from 2 CMEs starting around 00:30 UTC July 8th
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
right now, it is 21:07 UTC
That would make the shortest ETA for the 1st hit to be somewhere in around 3-4 hours (8-9 pm EST)
these CMEs would be 1 from July 4th
the 1st one occurring @ 01:24 UTC July 4th
[link to stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov]
the 2nd one occurring @ 23:54 UTC July 4th
[link to stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov]

Then we have the CME associated with the early July 7th X flare
[link to stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov]
We will see at least a glancing blow from this CME around late July 8th, into July 9th
we have the "Expected Events" list updated on the solar blog (on the right hand side)
[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]


 Quoting: NiNzrez


Is NASA's model saying differently?

[link to iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080]
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 5263313


the problem we have seen with the link you just gave, is that its constantly updated with each CME event, small or large.
and the moment it is updated, it no longer shows any event prior to the update. We have had multiple events to take into account

Last Edited by NiNzrez on 07/07/2012 06:45 PM
Kael

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07/07/2012 07:05 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
[link to spaceweather.com]

you would think a SS this big would get a NASA approved number by now!
maybe they think if they do not give it a number it will go away.

 Quoting: psyoptics


Thanks for the reply :D
"Thou we are not now that strength which in old days moved earth and heaven that which we are, we are.
One equal temper of heroic hearts made weak by time and fate but strong in will to strive, to seek, to find and not to yield"
Hugh M Eye

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07/07/2012 07:06 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
Expected CME Update:
this is my unofficial view
this because we have had so much activity with flares and CMEs that we would have to factor in Quantum entanglement.
We have talked about this in extent in the past here.
It is not just about the earth direction and size of a given CME, But there is a LOT of physics that plays into all this as well! Because of this, i do not have enough time to research into all the data and calculations before the arrival of the following CMEs.
So here we go :)

the ENLIL model is showing a hit from 2 CMEs starting around 00:30 UTC July 8th
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
right now, it is 21:07 UTC
That would make the shortest ETA for the 1st hit to be somewhere in around 3-4 hours (8-9 pm EST)
these CMEs would be 1 from July 4th
the 1st one occurring @ 01:24 UTC July 4th
[link to stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov]
the 2nd one occurring @ 23:54 UTC July 4th
[link to stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov]

Then we have the CME associated with the early July 7th X flare
[link to stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov]
We will see at least a glancing blow from this CME around late July 8th, into July 9th
we have the "Expected Events" list updated on the solar blog (on the right hand side)
[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]

Also lets note that there was a lot of CMEs between July 4th and today, July 7th, that could have been caught up at least partialy in a magnetic connection between earth and the sun. thus we could see some mass from these CMEs being caught up with the earth directed CME's and giving a combined hit. i would say we can expect at lease a Kp5 storm starting later tonight, that has the potential of reaching as high as a Kp8 at times, with the geomagnetic conditions being unsettled to Storm conditions over the period of the next 60hrs

With the ionospheric conditions being what they have been from the rash of M flares we have had over a 7 day period (33 M flares and 1 X flare as of the time of this post)combined with the heat wave we have had in North America this past week, i would caution as to the possibility of strong, strange storms for the period that the CMEs are expected to hit/arrive.

If i missed anything, please feel free to chim in and add your data so that we may have a complete run down of what to expect and when :)

Edit: I went ahead and put this into a Solar Alerts blog post so that it would easier to share for those who wish to do so :)
[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]
 Quoting: NiNzrez


I hate to second-guess you, SunQueen, worshipsun, but I was watching these events unfold almost minute by minute and I did post the info as it became available. You did request some input, so here's my breakdown....

The first Earth-directed CME was launched late on July 3rd from a C9.3 flare from 1513. Note the time-stamp on this STEREO A image-
:E-D CME#1:

The second Earth-directed CME was launch also from 1513, an M1.8 which peaked at 16:39 on July 4th. This came amidst a flurry of CMEs from 1515 (all directed south) and a bright CME from a north pole filament eruption. In this STEREO A image it's the center Earth-pointing one. Again, note the time-stamp.
:E-D CME#2:

I believe the first CME already hit us and caused a brief storm yesterday. It was predicted to arrive around 06:00 on the 7th, but showed early. The second, bigger one should be here shortly. Anyway, to my surprise, SIDC seems to back up my claims-

"Geomagnetic conditions were at active levels (K=4, Kp=5) between 21 and
24 UT on July 6th in response to the CME activity in the previous days.

The southward component of the interplanetary magnetic field went down
to -10 nT while the solar wind speed jumped to 500 km/s. Currently, we
are experiencing quiet geomagnetic conditions but geomagnetic activity
is expected to increase later today or early tomorrow, when we expect
the arrival of the ICME associated to the M1.8 flare on July 4th
. A
glancing blow from the CME associated to the X-flare is also possible
around 12 UT on July 9th. We expect unsettled (K=3) to active (K=5)
geomagnetic conditions in the coming days."
[link to sidc.oma.be]

SEEDS movie of second E-D CME:

[link to spaceweather.gmu.edu]

SEEDS movie entire July 4th fireworks seen from SOHO:

[link to spaceweather.gmu.edu]

Flare details of the M1.8:

[link to www.lmsal.com]

I agree with you on the X-flare CME (as does SIDC) and will post on that after another beer or two,hehe.beer2
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 1540313
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07/07/2012 07:19 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
Expected CME Update:
this is my unofficial view
this because we have had so much activity with flares and CMEs that we would have to factor in Quantum entanglement.
We have talked about this in extent in the past here.
It is not just about the earth direction and size of a given CME, But there is a LOT of physics that plays into all this as well! Because of this, i do not have enough time to research into all the data and calculations before the arrival of the following CMEs.
So here we go :)

the ENLIL model is showing a hit from 2 CMEs starting around 00:30 UTC July 8th
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
right now, it is 21:07 UTC
That would make the shortest ETA for the 1st hit to be somewhere in around 3-4 hours (8-9 pm EST)
these CMEs would be 1 from July 4th
the 1st one occurring @ 01:24 UTC July 4th
[link to stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov]
the 2nd one occurring @ 23:54 UTC July 4th
[link to stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov]

Then we have the CME associated with the early July 7th X flare
[link to stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov]
We will see at least a glancing blow from this CME around late July 8th, into July 9th
we have the "Expected Events" list updated on the solar blog (on the right hand side)
[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]

Also lets note that there was a lot of CMEs between July 4th and today, July 7th, that could have been caught up at least partialy in a magnetic connection between earth and the sun. thus we could see some mass from these CMEs being caught up with the earth directed CME's and giving a combined hit. i would say we can expect at lease a Kp5 storm starting later tonight, that has the potential of reaching as high as a Kp8 at times, with the geomagnetic conditions being unsettled to Storm conditions over the period of the next 60hrs

With the ionospheric conditions being what they have been from the rash of M flares we have had over a 7 day period (33 M flares and 1 X flare as of the time of this post)combined with the heat wave we have had in North America this past week, i would caution as to the possibility of strong, strange storms for the period that the CMEs are expected to hit/arrive. Stay safe!

If i missed anything, please feel free to chim in and add your data so that we may have a complete run down of what to expect and when :)

Edit: I went ahead and put this into a Solar Alerts blog post so that it would easier to share for those who wish to do so :)
[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]
 Quoting: NiNzrez


You summed that all up very nicely! Thanks Nin.peace
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 1540313
United States
07/07/2012 07:31 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
Expected CME Update:
this is my unofficial view
this because we have had so much activity with flares and CMEs that we would have to factor in Quantum entanglement.
We have talked about this in extent in the past here.
It is not just about the earth direction and size of a given CME, But there is a LOT of physics that plays into all this as well! Because of this, i do not have enough time to research into all the data and calculations before the arrival of the following CMEs.
So here we go :)

the ENLIL model is showing a hit from 2 CMEs starting around 00:30 UTC July 8th
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
right now, it is 21:07 UTC
That would make the shortest ETA for the 1st hit to be somewhere in around 3-4 hours (8-9 pm EST)
these CMEs would be 1 from July 4th
the 1st one occurring @ 01:24 UTC July 4th
[link to stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov]
the 2nd one occurring @ 23:54 UTC July 4th
[link to stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov]

Then we have the CME associated with the early July 7th X flare
[link to stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov]
We will see at least a glancing blow from this CME around late July 8th, into July 9th
we have the "Expected Events" list updated on the solar blog (on the right hand side)
[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]

Also lets note that there was a lot of CMEs between July 4th and today, July 7th, that could have been caught up at least partialy in a magnetic connection between earth and the sun. thus we could see some mass from these CMEs being caught up with the earth directed CME's and giving a combined hit. i would say we can expect at lease a Kp5 storm starting later tonight, that has the potential of reaching as high as a Kp8 at times, with the geomagnetic conditions being unsettled to Storm conditions over the period of the next 60hrs

With the ionospheric conditions being what they have been from the rash of M flares we have had over a 7 day period (33 M flares and 1 X flare as of the time of this post)combined with the heat wave we have had in North America this past week, i would caution as to the possibility of strong, strange storms for the period that the CMEs are expected to hit/arrive.

If i missed anything, please feel free to chim in and add your data so that we may have a complete run down of what to expect and when :)

Edit: I went ahead and put this into a Solar Alerts blog post so that it would easier to share for those who wish to do so :)
[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]
 Quoting: NiNzrez


I hate to second-guess you, SunQueen, worshipsun, but I was watching these events unfold almost minute by minute and I did post the info as it became available. You did request some input, so here's my breakdown....

The first Earth-directed CME was launched late on July 3rd from a C9.3 flare from 1513. Note the time-stamp on this STEREO A image-
:E-D CME#1:

The second Earth-directed CME was launch also from 1513, an M1.8 which peaked at 16:39 on July 4th. This came amidst a flurry of CMEs from 1515 (all directed south) and a bright CME from a north pole filament eruption. In this STEREO A image it's the center Earth-pointing one. Again, note the time-stamp.
:E-D CME#2:

I believe the first CME already hit us and caused a brief storm yesterday. It was predicted to arrive around 06:00 on the 7th, but showed early. The second, bigger one should be here shortly. Anyway, to my surprise, SIDC seems to back up my claims-

"Geomagnetic conditions were at active levels (K=4, Kp=5) between 21 and
24 UT on July 6th in response to the CME activity in the previous days.

The southward component of the interplanetary magnetic field went down
to -10 nT while the solar wind speed jumped to 500 km/s. Currently, we
are experiencing quiet geomagnetic conditions but geomagnetic activity
is expected to increase later today or early tomorrow, when we expect
the arrival of the ICME associated to the M1.8 flare on July 4th
. A
glancing blow from the CME associated to the X-flare is also possible
around 12 UT on July 9th. We expect unsettled (K=3) to active (K=5)
geomagnetic conditions in the coming days."
[link to sidc.oma.be]

SEEDS movie of second E-D CME:

[link to spaceweather.gmu.edu]

SEEDS movie entire July 4th fireworks seen from SOHO:

[link to spaceweather.gmu.edu]

Flare details of the M1.8:

[link to www.lmsal.com]

I agree with you on the X-flare CME (as does SIDC) and will post on that after another beer or two,hehe.beer2
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


I don't know how anyone could untangle the mess of the last 3-4 days, U R awesome for doing it, I did not even try.I am not awesomescratching.
NiNzrez  (OP)

User ID: 12844841
United States
07/07/2012 07:40 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
Expected CME Update:
this is my unofficial view
this because we have had so much activity with flares and CMEs that we would have to factor in Quantum entanglement.
We have talked about this in extent in the past here.
It is not just about the earth direction and size of a given CME, But there is a LOT of physics that plays into all this as well! Because of this, i do not have enough time to research into all the data and calculations before the arrival of the following CMEs.
So here we go :)

the ENLIL model is showing a hit from 2 CMEs starting around 00:30 UTC July 8th
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
right now, it is 21:07 UTC
That would make the shortest ETA for the 1st hit to be somewhere in around 3-4 hours (8-9 pm EST)
these CMEs would be 1 from July 4th
the 1st one occurring @ 01:24 UTC July 4th
[link to stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov]
the 2nd one occurring @ 23:54 UTC July 4th
[link to stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov]

Then we have the CME associated with the early July 7th X flare
[link to stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov]
We will see at least a glancing blow from this CME around late July 8th, into July 9th
we have the "Expected Events" list updated on the solar blog (on the right hand side)
[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]

Also lets note that there was a lot of CMEs between July 4th and today, July 7th, that could have been caught up at least partialy in a magnetic connection between earth and the sun. thus we could see some mass from these CMEs being caught up with the earth directed CME's and giving a combined hit. i would say we can expect at lease a Kp5 storm starting later tonight, that has the potential of reaching as high as a Kp8 at times, with the geomagnetic conditions being unsettled to Storm conditions over the period of the next 60hrs

With the ionospheric conditions being what they have been from the rash of M flares we have had over a 7 day period (33 M flares and 1 X flare as of the time of this post)combined with the heat wave we have had in North America this past week, i would caution as to the possibility of strong, strange storms for the period that the CMEs are expected to hit/arrive.

If i missed anything, please feel free to chim in and add your data so that we may have a complete run down of what to expect and when :)

Edit: I went ahead and put this into a Solar Alerts blog post so that it would easier to share for those who wish to do so :)
[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]
 Quoting: NiNzrez


I hate to second-guess you, SunQueen, worshipsun, but I was watching these events unfold almost minute by minute and I did post the info as it became available. You did request some input, so here's my breakdown....

The first Earth-directed CME was launched late on July 3rd from a C9.3 flare from 1513. Note the time-stamp on this STEREO A image-
:E-D CME#1:

The second Earth-directed CME was launch also from 1513, an M1.8 which peaked at 16:39 on July 4th. This came amidst a flurry of CMEs from 1515 (all directed south) and a bright CME from a north pole filament eruption. In this STEREO A image it's the center Earth-pointing one. Again, note the time-stamp.
:E-D CME#2:

I believe the first CME already hit us and caused a brief storm yesterday. It was predicted to arrive around 06:00 on the 7th, but showed early. The second, bigger one should be here shortly. Anyway, to my surprise, SIDC seems to back up my claims-

"Geomagnetic conditions were at active levels (K=4, Kp=5) between 21 and
24 UT on July 6th in response to the CME activity in the previous days.

The southward component of the interplanetary magnetic field went down
to -10 nT while the solar wind speed jumped to 500 km/s. Currently, we
are experiencing quiet geomagnetic conditions but geomagnetic activity
is expected to increase later today or early tomorrow, when we expect
the arrival of the ICME associated to the M1.8 flare on July 4th
. A
glancing blow from the CME associated to the X-flare is also possible
around 12 UT on July 9th. We expect unsettled (K=3) to active (K=5)
geomagnetic conditions in the coming days."
[link to sidc.oma.be]

SEEDS movie of second E-D CME:

[link to spaceweather.gmu.edu]

SEEDS movie entire July 4th fireworks seen from SOHO:

[link to spaceweather.gmu.edu]

Flare details of the M1.8:

[link to www.lmsal.com]

I agree with you on the X-flare CME (as does SIDC) and will post on that after another beer or two,hehe.beer2
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


i changed the wording to "we see here" for the CME images on stereo, cause they did occurre earlier, your right
but i disagree about the 1st one already hitting
it just was not fast enough of an ejection to arrive earlier than the 06:00 predicted time. This 1st one could have very well been slowed by the mass of the 2nd one (as im suspecting). again physics play in here. and we have seen this happen many many times on here as we sat for sometimes hours upon hours waiting for the expected 1st of many CME's to arrive at the time they stated, just to see a big impact later with the arrival of 2 CME's one right after another.
Parvati

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07/07/2012 07:54 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
Thanks to you all for this intelligent instructive thread.
Especially to the OP - NiNzrez!

If you go to ISWA

[link to iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080]

and click on All Cygnets

then on the number 16

you can pull up SWMF North-South Cut and animate it.

Title reads: SWMF Magnetosphere Y Cut - Mag Field

When this shows magnetic reconnections,
is this an indication of breaches in the earth's magnetic field.

Also can this chart be an indicator of breaches, cracks in earth's magnetic field?

[link to www.haarp.alaska.edu]
Truth [Satya] indeed conquers! Not untruth, falsehood.
Untruth is all discord, out of harmony with the Real.
The Real is a spontaneous unfolding of the One.
- Mundaka Upanishad III.1.6
nerdrage88sasr

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07/07/2012 08:01 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
[link to www.n3kl.org]
"Luck is what happens when preparation meets Oppurtunity"-- Seneca (5BC-65AD)
Spittin'Cesium

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07/07/2012 08:04 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
Evening all : )

I missed alot of action,greatwoohoo.

Hope all are good all the samesun

Anyways,just thought I'd post this here for anyone who has'nt seen it yet.

[link to www.youtube.com]

The YT Channel that ^ came from is 'Suspicious0bservers' incase anyone did'nt know already : )

I recommend subbing if you want Daily,succinct updates on all things Geo-effective etc as well as(obviously)checking Daily [link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.co.uk]

I'm going to do some data mining now - be back soon.
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
NiNzrez  (OP)

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07/07/2012 08:08 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
Chances of moderate to major solar flares increase

Sunspot Region 1515
60% chance for M flare
63% chance for X flare

Sunspot Region 1519
60% chance for M flare
63% chance for X flare

[link to spaceweather.inf.brad.ac.uk]
mtn_mang

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07/07/2012 08:10 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
somethings a brewin'...
nerdrage88sasr

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07/07/2012 08:13 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
Chances of moderate to major solar flares increase

Sunspot Region 1515
60% chance for M flare
63% chance for X flare

Sunspot Region 1519
60% chance for M flare
63% chance for X flare

[link to spaceweather.inf.brad.ac.uk]
 Quoting: NiNzrez


Yeah, the ' gigantor' (as a wise man named it), appears to be BDG already, yet i think, as it aint as flashy/showy as 1515, when it does go off, will go off with a BANG!
hiding
"Luck is what happens when preparation meets Oppurtunity"-- Seneca (5BC-65AD)
Parvati

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07/07/2012 08:19 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
This red is increasing now in this graphic.
Even near Antarctica.

Time: 2012-07-08 00:14 UTC

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
Truth [Satya] indeed conquers! Not untruth, falsehood.
Untruth is all discord, out of harmony with the Real.
The Real is a spontaneous unfolding of the One.
- Mundaka Upanishad III.1.6
mtn_mang

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07/07/2012 08:21 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
Chances of moderate to major solar flares increase

Sunspot Region 1515
60% chance for M flare
63% chance for X flare

Sunspot Region 1519
60% chance for M flare
63% chance for X flare

[link to spaceweather.inf.brad.ac.uk]
 Quoting: NiNzrez


isn't it 1520, not 1519?
Spittin'Cesium

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07/07/2012 08:24 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
Amazing [link to iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080] check out the geometry of the different field components of the Sun..the Coronal Holes shape does resemble a Triangle as pointed out by IWTB or Hugh and the HSB appears as a Triquetra Symbol [link to en.wikipedia.org]

.
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
Parvati

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07/07/2012 08:26 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
The large new Sunspot located in the southeast quadrant should be numbered 1520 later today.

[link to www.solarham.net]
Truth [Satya] indeed conquers! Not untruth, falsehood.
Untruth is all discord, out of harmony with the Real.
The Real is a spontaneous unfolding of the One.
- Mundaka Upanishad III.1.6
nerdrage88sasr

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07/07/2012 08:28 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
"Luck is what happens when preparation meets Oppurtunity"-- Seneca (5BC-65AD)
NiNzrez  (OP)

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07/07/2012 08:29 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
Chances of moderate to major solar flares increase

Sunspot Region 1515
60% chance for M flare
63% chance for X flare

Sunspot Region 1519
60% chance for M flare
63% chance for X flare

[link to spaceweather.inf.brad.ac.uk]
 Quoting: NiNzrez


isn't it 1520, not 1519?
 Quoting: mtn_mang


its 1519 according to bradfords model
but the still un numbered region coming in behind it is the one thats causing this i believe
[link to www.solen.info]
that area will be numbered 1520
did they finally number it?

chances in the 1519/1520 region just increased!
67% and 69%

Last Edited by NiNzrez on 07/07/2012 08:32 PM
Spittin'Cesium

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
March 11th 2011 [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

Present [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

Where are the Earthquake/Solar Correlators?

We now have the Protons and A20 making a match between the two Dates(almost).
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1





GLP