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Message Subject SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)

Poster Handle NiNzrez

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Expected CME Update:
this is my unofficial view
this because we have had so much activity with flares and CMEs that we would have to factor in Quantum entanglement.
We have talked about this in extent in the past here.
It is not just about the earth direction and size of a given CME, But there is a LOT of physics that plays into all this as well! Because of this, i do not have enough time to research into all the data and calculations before the arrival of the following CMEs.
So here we go :)

the ENLIL model is showing a hit from 2 CMEs starting around 00:30 UTC July 8th
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
right now, it is 21:07 UTC
That would make the shortest ETA for the 1st hit to be somewhere in around 3-4 hours (8-9 pm EST)
these CMEs would be 1 from July 4th
the 1st one occurring @ 01:24 UTC July 4th
[link to stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov]
the 2nd one occurring @ 23:54 UTC July 4th
[link to stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov]

Then we have the CME associated with the early July 7th X flare
[link to stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov]
We will see at least a glancing blow from this CME around late July 8th, into July 9th
we have the "Expected Events" list updated on the solar blog (on the right hand side)
[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]

Also lets note that there was a lot of CMEs between July 4th and today, July 7th, that could have been caught up at least partialy in a magnetic connection between earth and the sun. thus we could see some mass from these CMEs being caught up with the earth directed CME's and giving a combined hit. i would say we can expect at lease a Kp5 storm starting later tonight, that has the potential of reaching as high as a Kp8 at times, with the geomagnetic conditions being unsettled to Storm conditions over the period of the next 60hrs

With the ionospheric conditions being what they have been from the rash of M flares we have had over a 7 day period (33 M flares and 1 X flare as of the time of this post)combined with the heat wave we have had in North America this past week, i would caution as to the possibility of strong, strange storms for the period that the CMEs are expected to hit/arrive.

If i missed anything, please feel free to chim in and add your data so that we may have a complete run down of what to expect and when :)

Edit: I went ahead and put this into a Solar Alerts blog post so that it would easier to share for those who wish to do so :)
[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]

Quoting: NiNzrez

I hate to second-guess you, SunQueen,

, but I was watching these events unfold almost minute by minute and I did post the info as it became available. You did request some input, so here's my breakdown....

The first Earth-directed CME was launched late on July 3rd from a C9.3 flare from 1513. Note the time-stamp on this STEREO A image-
:E-D CME#1:

The second Earth-directed CME was launch also from 1513, an M1.8 which peaked at 16:39 on July 4th. This came amidst a flurry of CMEs from 1515 (all directed south) and a bright CME from a north pole filament eruption. In this STEREO A image it's the center Earth-pointing one. Again, note the time-stamp.
:E-D CME#2:

I believe the first CME already hit us and caused a brief storm yesterday. It was predicted to arrive around 06:00 on the 7th, but showed early. The second, bigger one should be here shortly. Anyway, to my surprise, SIDC seems to back up my claims-

"Geomagnetic conditions were at active levels (K=4, Kp=5) between 21 and
24 UT on July 6th in response to the CME activity in the previous days.
The southward component of the interplanetary magnetic field went down
to -10 nT while the solar wind speed jumped to 500 km/s. Currently, we
are experiencing quiet geomagnetic conditions but geomagnetic activity
is expected to increase later today or early tomorrow, when we expect
the arrival of the ICME associated to the M1.8 flare on July 4th. A
glancing blow from the CME associated to the X-flare is also possible
around 12 UT on July 9th. We expect unsettled (K=3) to active (K=5)
geomagnetic conditions in the coming days."
[link to sidc.oma.be]

SEEDS movie of second E-D CME:

[link to spaceweather.gmu.edu]

SEEDS movie entire July 4th fireworks seen from SOHO:

[link to spaceweather.gmu.edu]

Flare details of the M1.8:

[link to www.lmsal.com]

I agree with you on the X-flare CME (as does SIDC) and will post on that after another beer or two,hehe.

Quoting: Hugh M Eye

i changed the wording to "we see here" for the CME images on stereo, cause they did occurre earlier, your right
but i disagree about the 1st one already hitting
it just was not fast enough of an ejection to arrive earlier than the 06:00 predicted time. This 1st one could have very well been slowed by the mass of the 2nd one (as im suspecting). again physics play in here. and we have seen this happen many many times on here as we sat for sometimes hours upon hours waiting for the expected 1st of many CME's to arrive at the time they stated, just to see a big impact later with the arrival of 2 CME's one right after another.

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