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Are these weird wonky shapes an indication of the mysterious quadrupolar Sun?


Solar poles to become quadrupolar in May
The Yomiuri Shimbun

Magnetic field polarity at the solar poles will reverse and become quadrupolar in May, meaning positive fields will emerge in the North and South poles and negative fields will emerge on the equator, according to the National Astronomical Observatory of Japan and other institutes.

When a similar phenomenon occurred about 300 years ago, the Earth's average temperature fell slightly.

A research team led by Saku Tsuneta, a professor at the observatory, analyzed solar magnetic fields data using Hinode, an observational satellite, and confirmed that the polarity of the magnetic field at the North Pole began to reverse in July last year.

The researchers also found the magnetic field at the South Pole, which was expected to reverse along with the North Pole, maintained a positive polarity, ensuring the formation of a quadrupole magnetic field.

The cause behind the shifts in polar fields is not understood. However, it is known that the shifts coincide with the increase and decrease in the number of sunspots over an about 11-year cycle.

The current sunspot cycle has stretched for close to 13 years. A similar situation occurred in the 17th to 18th century, when the average temperature of the Northern Hemisphere decreased by 0.6 C. The research team believes the quadrupolar pattern also emerged at that time.

(Apr. 21, 2012)
[link to www.yomiuri.co.jp]

the big boy is numbered 1520 on solarham, thought that was the region Bradford has numbered as 04 on the model

edit: they have also upped the probs on 1520 to 67%M 69%X

Last Edited by mtn_mang on 07/07/2012 08:34 PM

hes just getting a jump start on the number sunspot game
it is still un numbered but should be numbered later today :)

Heya NiNz

I had read somewhere that the Region we are referring to as 1520 is the return of 1507(I think) - Though I can't remember where it is I read that,I think it was from an Australian Solar Alert Bulletin.

(Edit:may be completely incorrect)

Last Edited by Spittin'Cesium on 07/07/2012 08:39 PM

This chart reached a new weirdness today.
Missing data?
July 8 noon NZ time.

[link to neutronm.bartol.udel.edu]

big shift in electrons and protons detected at ACE

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

Dr.Keith Strongs' Video(from the 5th?)has the Region Numbered as 1519:


[link to www.youtube.com]

BOHICA!
Peace

We have a G1,S1 and R3 Alert from NOAA [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

And again this chart is beginning to look like it did yesterday.

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

The energy was so intense here in NZ.
Increasing now around noon July 8 here.
Amazing. Gets me high.
I can't imagine how it will feel once the CMEs go repeatedly X.
Seems to me the key is the breaches in earth's magnetic field.

i believe the big region that should be numbered 1520, and not 1519, is the return of 1504
we can compair todays sunspot regions

[link to www.solen.info] 26 days ago and see this
[link to www.solen.info]
here you can see it 27 days earlier
[link to www.solen.info]

this is what we saw from old sunspot 1504 on the last rotation
M1.9 Flare on 6/14/2012 @ 14:30 UTC - Sunspot 1504
- LDE lasting 7hrs
- CME produced- ETA: June 16, 2012
M1.2 Flare on 6/13/2012 @ 13:17 UTC - Sunspot 1504
- LDE lasting 2hrs
- CME produced- ETA: June 16. 2012
M1.3 Flare on 6/10/2012 @ 06:45 UTC - Sunspot 1504
M1.8 Flare on 6/09/2012 @ 16:53 UTC - Sunspot 1504
M1.9 Flare on 6/09/2012 @ 11:32 UTC - Sunspot 1504

Last Edited by NiNzrez on 07/07/2012 08:53 PM

Total spike!
Thanks.

Now it's "official"

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary
SRS Number 190 Issued at 0030Z on 08 Jul 2012
Report compiled from data received at SWO on 07 Jul
I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 07/2400Z
Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type
1513 N16W78 221 0180 Hsx 04 02 Alpha
1515 S17W63 206 0780 Fki 16 43 Beta-Gamma
1517 N19W53 196 0020 Cro 02 03 Beta
1518 N10E24 119 0030 Cro 06 04 Beta
1519 S15E34 109 0070 Hsx 02 01 Alpha
1520 S15E54 088 0510 Fhc 16 14 Beta-Gamma
IA. H-alpha Plages without Spots. Locations Valid at 07/2400Z Jul
Nmbr Location Lo
1514 S13W80 223
1516 N20W65 208
II. Regions Due to Return 08 Jul to 10 Jul
Nmbr Lat Lo
1510 S16 038

Weighing in at a respectable 510 millionths and rated as Beta-Gamma.

Latest HMI Intensitygram:

[link to jsoc.stanford.edu]

Just as 1515 and 1513 were connected so are the new Regions on the East of the Disc [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

Cheers SolLuv,I agree and it appears it is now officially 1520 as posted by Hugh above : )

Good work GASA.

Question (I know, I'm new here...):
Are the breaches & cracks in the earth's magnetosphere the result of these magnetic reconnections?



from NiN's blog:

[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.co.nz]

"Also lets note that there was a lot of CMEs between July 4th and today, July 7th, that could have been caught up at least partially in a magnetic connection between earth and the sun. thus we could see some mass from these CMEs being caught up with the earth directed CME's and giving a combined hit."

just ran across this and wanted to add it in here for those of you watching earth conditions as well as solar


Sea Ice Retreat in the Beaufort Sea:
Image of the Day

As the summer solstice approaches in the Northern Hemisphere, long hours of sunlight warm the Arctic and melt snow and sea ice. Sea ice retreat in June is typical, but the first half of June 2012 brought unusually rapid ice loss, the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) reported on June 19.


The rapid melt north of Alaska was part of a larger phenomenon. Sea ice across the entire Arctic reached record-low levels for this time of year, NSIDC stated, slightly below the previous record set in June 2010. It was also lower than the extent in June 2007; Arctic sea ice reached its lowest extent ever recorded by satellite in September 2007.
[link to earthobservatory.nasa.gov]

ALARMING!

All of those spikes match up time-wise with the last C8.4 Flare at 2400 [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

I think.

Stereo behind shows it well also...
[link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

A movie from HEK showing the set of transequatorial loops associated with 1515 earlier this week...
[link to sdowww.lmsal.com]

--

Thank you for that : )

Here are some pretty shapes [link to iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080]

Is SDO still down : (

SOHO are crap [link to sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov] <--- see,how have they still not uploaded since the bloody 2nd of July!?

Useless.

Last Edited by Spittin'Cesium on 07/07/2012 09:25 PM

Just after posting that they revised it down to G1,S1 and R1 [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

I tend to agree with NIN and SIDC (and disagree with NASA) that yesterday's CME from the X-flare will give Earth a glancing blow or at least a strong shock wave. The CACTus details give this a type II halo designation, but it's not hard to see a 360 degree shock on the difference movie. Also, near the 7 o'clock position I see an Earth-directed stream of plasma. However, like all of the many CMEs from 1515 the brunt of the force is directed well away from Earth, but I think we'll see at least some minor effects.

CACTus Details of X-CME:

[link to www.sidc.oma.be]

Also, as a side note, I believe that 1520 produced an X-flare on July 2nd (or at least an extreme M-flare). IWTB76 and I noted this eruption at the time. Of course this region was well behind the limb at the time. But check out this far-side halo CME it produced and compare it to yesterdays' X.

CACTus details of far-side CME from July 2nd:

[link to www.sidc.oma.be]

AR1520 a/k/a Gigantor
:1520off:

AR1520 Magnetogram
:1520magneto:

The EIT is in keyhole mode now. Here's a link to the SDO latest images:

[link to sdodata.oma.be]

And here's for the HMI Instrument:

[link to jsoc.stanford.edu]

I had also noted a large Flare from this Region just before it came over the limb..on the SDO Images you were able to see the usual bright stuttered X shaped flash we see with larger Flares.

I had posted the image link at the time.

SDO blog has this to say..........
Saturday, July 7, 2012
SDO Data Site Under Repair, X-flare Erupts
The GSFC SDO website is having a disk replaced and should be back online tomorrow. Many thanks to Joe and Joe for installing the new drives. Repairs at the SDO ground station in New Mexico also delayed delivery of data to the SOCs in Palo Alto and Boulder. Both systems are repaired and delivery of the science data has resumed.
Of course, trouble with the data system means the Sun will do something interesting. An X1.1 flare erupted late yesterday (UT, 7 pm ET). Here is the EVE irradiances showing a peak in the top frame at 2300 UTC. The flare was in AR 11515, very close to the receding limb of the Sun, and in the southern hemisphere.
The image is here: [link to 1.bp.blogspot.com]
The article is here: [link to sdoisgo.blogspot.com]

Hello by the way Hugh.

the Polarities of Gigantor should become even more Fragglistic as it continues to wind up as it rotates the disc,should be fun.

: )

Last Edited by Spittin'Cesium on 07/07/2012 09:50 PM

Ahhh ok...thanks NiN

[This is flying now...]

Prediction for magnetospheric and ionospheric conditions using a SWMF realtime simulation (GM-BATSRUS, IE-RidleySerial) together with the Fok ring current model.

This page was generated at: Sun Jul 8 00:53:55 UTC 2012

[link to ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov]


And the area near Antarctica and NZ/OZ getting larger, more red.
Highest absorption levels?

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

makes me think about my old thread....

Thread: OK what really happened with the sun and our earth (feb 14th and 15th) CRACKS in our MAGNETIC FIELDS and they are still happening!

they still are very tight lipped about all this.
only let out info in little drips. there is no real data stores we have access to. and little data at all on the Themsis project.

could this be connected to CR getting in...i do not know.
i think it is more in tune with not protecting earth from the sun and solar activity.

but there is a lot of research on my thread...scientists looking into the heliosphere shrinking...energy changing....matter changing. all because our solar system is moving into a area that is not so good for us.

it is very hard to find any current data or info on any of this either. i think it all stopped around 2007 or so.
around the start of the Themsis project...funny.

Last Edited by psyoptics on 07/07/2012 10:34 PM