SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)

SPACE WEATHER
NOAA Forecasts
Updated at: 2012 Jul 12 2200 UTC
FLARE

CLASS X 35 %


[link to www.spaceweather.com]

SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 12 Jul 2012 until 14 Jul 2012)
SOLAR FLARES : Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)
GEOMAGNETISM : Quiet (A<20 and K<4)
SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet
PREDICTIONS FOR 12 Jul 2012 10CM FLUX: 160 / AP: 010
PREDICTIONS FOR 13 Jul 2012 10CM FLUX: 160 / AP: 007
PREDICTIONS FOR 14 Jul 2012 10CM FLUX: 160 / AP: 007
COMMENT: Quiet space weather conditions are expected, despite the presence of NOAA AR 1520 (beta-gamma-delta) and NOAA AR 1521 (beta-gamma) near central solar meridian. These two active regions are expected to produce C-class flares.
[link to sidc.oma.be]

What? Really??

My wife thinks the government is going to come after me for looking at this site. I keep telling her I am a proud American and post nothing but positive things on GLP. After being here a year, she does see how much faster I get breaking news.

Anyways, back on track. I find it interesting that 1520 is holding together after this blast. Maybe we get our largest flare yet out of it. Need X 6.9+

heard it here 1st!!!! :)
the ego part of me likes to think they do
but the humble part in me says we just agree
:)

same reaction i got from my daughter hahaha

yup back then it hit Kp9 for a few there
if i remember right, it was with the super high solar activity we saw in Nov 2011

35?

35?!?!?!?!

i do not recall them EVER putting that high of a % chance for a X
this cycle anyways

"Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 194 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Jul 2012

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z
to 12/2100Z: Solar activity was high. At 12/1649Z, a long-duration
X1/2b flare was observed from Region 1520 (S16W09). The event was
visible in GONG H-alpha imagery as a bright ribbon flare that
erupted along the region?s long E/W oriented inversion line.
Associated with this event were Type II (1268 km/s) and Type IV
radio emissions along with an 800 sfu Tenflare. Limited satellite
imagery indicated a CME was associated with this event. STEREO
Behind COR2 imagery observed a CME lifting off the west limb, first
visible at 12/1710Z. Further analysis of this CME is ongoing.
During the past 24 hours, Region 1520 grew in both area and spot
count and maintained a complex beta-gamma-delta magnetic
configuration. Region 1521 (S21W21) also grew in area and spot
count and remained a beta-gamma magnetic classification. New
Regions 1522 (N13W21) and 1523 (S27E31) emerged on the disk as
simple bi-polar spot groups.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be
moderate with a chance for X-class events for the next three days
(13 - 15 July).


VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Jul-15 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/40/35
Minor storm 05/15/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes
Active 20/10/15
Minor storm 25/30/30
Major-severe storm 25/55/45 "

55% chance of a major-severe storm in high latitudes Saturday.

Yes it was. I wasn't on here then but somewhere else!

It was November 3, 2011, it was AR1339, and it was X1.9 or X2.0. There were two X-class flares in 48 hours.

Last Edited by WhiteAngel on 07/12/2012 06:54 PM

i was just going to ask if anyone else noticed the extreem growth of un numbered regions S1793 and to the west (right) of S1783?
[link to www.solen.info]

this occurred in the hours directly before todays X flare
and the growth continues now

you can look on SDO movie for today to see what im talking about
[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

I am guessing this is why they are giving 35% for another X.

X1.9 Flare on 11/03/2011 @ 20:27 UTC - sunspot 1339

Hey Nin. Do you know if the polarity of that CMe, from the X flare, will be pulling the Bz South?

Thats a good question Q, alot depends on the Bz

I like this.
Thanks, NiNzrez.
Awesome reporting and amazing day!

:eme3:

Wow IWTB ..... I may have to try again tomorrow to take this all in !!! Way above my learning curve so far !!

Still pretty hot on the poles:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

whats up with SOHO? can't find anything from lasco from 1500-2200

You might want to peek at this El Q as it also related to quakes.

[link to www.youtube.com]

hiya ts66


have saved it also^^

Ah thanks for this!


Have a look...^^
Thread: Help with all this solar flare talk

^^ EE gads, sounds like a nightmare !!! You're a saint IWTB !!

This is the one that 'gets' me.
I live in NZ and I seem to feel these "red days" intensely.
This is the most intense I have ever observed.
The top 4 bars are all the way across at 35.
And big red under little NZ.

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]



:eme3:

I'm not quite sure exactly where you are located , but you may want to keep a heads up for the Aurora Australis aka, Southern lights !!! [link to www.solarham.net]



Doesn't look like they'll be hitting NY State, at least tonight....

[...]Joe Kunches of NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center in Boulder said
one of the NASA satellites tasked with watching for solar weather,
SOHO, was “on maneuvers” when the flare launched.
That will make the task of predicting the course of any subsequent CME more difficult.

[link to www.liveleak.com]

there were also frames missing on Stereo A following the initial eruption, and a couple of frames missing after this was taken

[link to stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov]

Last Edited by RTS REDUX on 07/12/2012 07:52 PM

does this have to do with helioseismology at all, they may be connected?

Looking at the projected time of impact (from [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov] ) it's going to impact the Far East the most.

It will be around 12pm in Time Zone GMT +7, which is Beijing, Singapore, and Ho Chi Minh. Every one that's within a few hours either way of that will be affected. Australia/NZ, Japan, Iran, the Eastern parts of Russia.

Those will be the places seeing the most of the sun at the time, I wonder just how bad things will get.

how convenient...a maneuver at a critical moment.

I've seen it all the way across at 17 Mhz, which might have been last november, my minds horrible about as bad as my record keeping. Anything at the level its at today gives me crazy physical symptoms. You being closer to the poles where the saturation is usually higher, can feel it intensely! I Enjoy your posts Parvati!

Last Edited by Thinking out loud on 07/12/2012 07:51 PM

Ooorrgghhh!?

My Head is killing : /

Must be due to [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

And [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

I missed the beginning of the X but the effects are for sure persistant,my skull is banging,hard..OouchhH.

Big Luv by the way