SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)

I just saw a new line of Plasma form on EVE [link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

Just to the Right hand side of the Regions but going Northward..I'd watch that,could be a Bi-Polar connection has been loaded and primed.

We shall see : )

Last Edited by Spittin'Cesium on 07/12/2012 09:24 PM

I'm home from work. It looks like it was a pretty eventful day I see.

:)

I get a very strong feeling its reloading

Hi SE, maybe it will pick up for you now your off!

The line I mentioned is clearly visable here [link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov] on the top-right of the Region.

Check out the Filament Lift off in the North [link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov] !

Howdy, Starry eyes, - Me,too. and it took me 2 hours to go thru all the posts in the last 6 hours. Wow, this thread may reach 1000 pages by Monday morning!

After my prediction of a major flare event within 36-48 hours, I was ready today to re-name GIGANTOR the "Gentle Giant" and eat some crow, but NOOOOOOO!-1520 came through big time. After the flare I checked the magnetogram and very little had changed since it was in the B-range. This region seems ready to explode at a moment notice so stay alert. This region actually seems more typical of an active region than AR1515. I've never seen so many staccato, short-lived M-flares before, not to mention the deflected nature of the CMEs.

Now I have to go back and find out which posts to quote and comment on, hahaha.

Great job here by everyone!

I get a strong feeling too...

I am excited about this first x-ray since I started watching, and another feeling too, loss for one...

Thank you, I thought the "O" was short for "OMG"!

Good to have you here always feels like somethings missing without your posts!

yw..the movie NBC played looked like a SDO image but was offset which makes me wonder if they have a secret sun scope mounted on Hubble or Spitzer. In that movie the filament looked like a whip as long as about half the diameter of the sun. It was well N of 1520. I just tried to find it on Jhelioviewer in about 1/2 dozen different filters but haven't been able to find it yet. If I do find something I'll make a video or post a screenshot.

Yes, you are right, looks like it is ripening.

Perhaps, Perhaps!

and i will sleep now^^

Good night suncrew, wish you a good hunt and please dont post that much haha

The filament to the north looks like a skeleton sitting on a rock

It certainly has picked up, Hugh :)

With today's performance, the 1520 region seems promising!

I'll hang around for a while.

Great work as usual, IWTB! That second link shows all of the varios cone models and the "Dynamic Pressure" and "Density" puts Earth in the black (strongest) part of the storm. Even in the best-case-scenario we'll receive quite a jolt.

Event Issue Date: 2012-07-12 13:37:29.0 GMT
CME Arrival Time: 2012-07-14 10:20:38.0 GMT
Arival Time Confidence Level: ± 6 hours
Disturbance Duration: 8 hours
Disturbance Duration Confidence Level: ± 8 hours
Magnetopause Standoff Distance: 4.6 Re

Now we have something to talk about, haha!

This X1.4 Flare from 1520 peaked around 16:49 July 12, 2012 UTC. The CME first shows up ejecting from around the occulting disk on Stereo A Cor2 at 16:54:50, while the flare is still peaking. This was a very fast plane of sky ejection speed. This is a large CME with a lot of material being pushed out from the center or the disk in an Earthward direction, this time. The CMEs thick cloud is very discernable on both Stereo A and B Cor2 images below...



[link to stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov]



[link to stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov]

This CME is moving so quickly that it was already seen in the Stereo B HI1 images starting at 23:18UT (that is Venus about to get blasted) below..



[link to stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov]

It looks like CCMC NASA ISWA currently is forcasting the arrival for around 2012 07 14 for approx 18:00 UTC or 2:00pm Sat afternoon, and WSA-Enlil Solar Wind Prediction from NOAA/SWPC is predicting the arrival for approx 2012 07 14 20:00 UTC.

I would not be at all suprised if it arrived within 30-36 hrs from the ejection, putting it's arrival here Fri night into Sat morning between 2012 07 13 22:00 - 2012 07 14 04:00 UTC.

Glad to see ISWA/CCMC shortning those arrival times up. NOAA still going with 1:00 pm Eastern.

"The R3 (Strong) Radio Blackout today at 12:49 EDT (1649 UTC) was accompanied by an earth-directed CME. Hampered by limited observations of the event, SWPC forecasters are now anticipating the passage of the CME around 1:00 a.m. EDT, Saturday, July 14."
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
Their cone model,showing the arrival at 20:00UTC.

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]



Last Edited by tomasgod1 on 07/12/2012 10:36 PM

i would say it is very hard to tell and we will have to wait and see
this becuase the sunspot the CME came from, 1520, had many intermixing polarities some + and some -
all woven together

Exactly my thoughts on this one as well.

NiN

mine was too then i took a shower and feel brand new

a great thing to do when were having this solar activity is take off your shoes and go stand/walk in the grass or sand or dirt
get grounded! doing this will help reduce the negative electrons that sometimes build up in the human body from the bombardment of solar particles/radaition etc
[link to www.naturalbodyhealing.com]
[link to health.howstuffworks.com]

if you still feel yukky after that, a shower will do the job. it does the same thing as the grounding with earth as i said above and a double dose of antioxidants durring this solar weather will also help :)

when you can, do all 3

omg

ahhhhh bingo!
so so many miss that connection ^^
sounds like something i say on a night at my house while sitting around with friends talking theory ;)

hey tom! yay back just in time :)
i calculated the time around 06:00 on the 14th
+/- 4hrs
almost the exact same as you


Last Edited by NiNzrez on 07/12/2012 10:50 PM

Incredible.

Blooming Plasma Plumage..should be a mighty whack,Multiple wild polarities within you would think from the images and positions of the HSBs.

Thank you Tom for posting : )

Hey there NiNz

Wow what a day. Hiya all.
Saw the flare, had to leave, just got caught up. Big cme.
When the flare was hitting I had a sharp pain on right side of head. I felt sick too.
I do all of Nin's suggestions, including ingesting some organic xtra Virgin Olive oil. It really does help.

Howdy, TG1, great to see you, SunBro! I'm not sure where to begin with this event. First of all, I'm somewhat surprised at the lack of "proton snow" on SOHO considering the size and direction of the CME. The Sun seems to guard its secrets very well indeed, haha.

Space Weather Message Code: WARPC0
Serial Number: 65
Issue Time: 2012 Jul 13 0034 UTC

CANCEL WARNING: Proton 100MeV Integral Flux above 1pfu expected
Cancel Serial Number: 64
Original Issue Time: 2012 Jul 12 1740 UTC

Comment: Conditions no longer present for warning.
Potential Impacts: An enhancement in the energetic portion of the solar radiation spectrum may indicate increased biological risk to astronauts or passengers and crew in high latitude, high altitude flights. Additionally, energetic particles may represent an increased risk to all satellite systems susceptible to single event effects. This information should be used in conjunction with the current Solar Radiation Storm conditions when assessing overall impact.
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

... more when I gather my wits, LOL.

I think there is a bigger one coming tonight. I understand LDEs, but I haven't seen an X yet. I've also noticed that they've been coming in pairs.

I hope I'm wrong.