SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)

From the SDO blog site
Friday, July 13, 2012
A Busy Week for SDO
It has been a busy week for SDO. On Tuesday we did an EVE cruciform maneuver, where we point SDO back and forth and up and down to explore how EVE is working. At left is an AIA image taken during the cruciform.
On Wednesday the Hi-C rocket lifted off from White Sands Missile Range (just over the mountains from the SDO ground station) and took high-resolution images of the Sun. I haven't seen any images yet, but I'm sure they will look great!
Next, on Thursday we watched an X1.4 flare bloom out of AR 1520 (circled in the AIA 193 image at left.) The last X-class flare was from AR 1515 when it was near the limb (the right side of the Sun), so seeing one at disk center is pretty nice. We even got some news stories written about this flare:

Sun unleashes most powerful solar flare of the summer (msnbc.com) [link to www.msnbc.msn.com]
X-Class Solar Flare Causes Radio Outages (U.S. News & World Report): [link to www.usnews.com]
Major Solar Flare Erupts From Giant Sunspot (Space.com): [link to www.space.com]
Sun uncorks X-class blast (USA Today): [link to content.usatoday.com]

With 2 X-class flares in 2 week it looks like the southern hemisphere is moving toward solar maximum!
Posted by Dean Pesnell at 2:04 PM
The full article is here: [link to sdoisgo.blogspot.com]

If that is the case, then we are in for a wild ride.

I hope everyone is stocked up just in case!

According to the alert, yes possible.


ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 5
Threshold Reached: 2012 Jul 14 1851 UTC
Synoptic Period: 1800-2100 UTC
Active Warning: Yes
NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

And don't forget, the K index is derive from an average around the globe, so it possible some areas are being effected worse than others

WARNING: Geomagnetic K-Index of 6 expected
Valid From: 2012 Jul 14 1915 UTC
Valid To: 2012 Jul 14 2359 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
NOAA Scale: G2 - Moderate
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 55 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Power grid fluctuations can occur. High-latitude power systems may experience voltage alarms.Spacecraft - Satellite orientation irregularities may occur; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites is possible.
Radio - HF (high frequency) radio propagation can fade at higher latitudes.
Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as New York to Wisconsin to Washington state.

I believe the Kp index warning was increased to 6 a while ago..

Space Weather Message Code: WARK06
Serial Number: 199
Issue Time: 2012 Jul 14 1914 UTC

WARNING: Geomagnetic K-Index of 6 expected
Valid From: 2012 Jul 14 1915 UTC
Valid To: 2012 Jul 14 2359 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
NOAA Scale: G2 - Moderate
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 55 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Power grid fluctuations can occur. High-latitude power systems may experience voltage alarms.
Spacecraft - Satellite orientation irregularities may occur; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites is possible.
Radio - HF (high frequency) radio propagation can fade at higher latitudes.
Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as New York to Wisconsin to Washington state.

Last Edited by Starry eyes on 07/14/2012 04:24 PM

LOL, it wont be "over" for like another 30 hours bud, people need to relax, this is litereally just the beginning, IT has just started, give it time.

From NiN's page...
[link to www.defx.net]
This merging is what we have now seen on solar data and the brunt of the CME we are expecting today has yet to arrive. We are still seeing only the front. As the hours go on today, we will be able to know for sure.

Expected not officially reached ...

Ok..lol

Sorry

No sorries !!! lol. I just don't want to give the doubters ammunition

Possible, but doubtful...I'm a EE and even though I work on low voltage electronics, power grid fluctuations are somewhat normal. They can generally produce voltage dips and spikes, the kinds of fluctuations a line conditioner can handle. That was why I said doubtful, not no...

Agreed. Kp currently is 2.

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

--

i got that the night of the cat video issues on here haha

I got one of those neg. karma posts,too- I just gave everyone more green to make up for that idiot, sick SOB.

electron flux going south again...

Kp=8 in the 4 hour prediction.

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]
new update added to the blog just now

Oh,I see now why someone who most definitely is stupid posted you that - Karma comment : )

That was such a horrible thing to have posted(that video)and to have been Karma Pinned,I did'nt watch the video but did see the videos' freeze image,disgusting : (

You must have been hard at it deleting the posts of that on this thread tht night as I only saw the one yet you said you had been constantly having to delete the posts,some People are beyond help.

Anyhoo..back to the issue at hand hey my dear

The real-time Boulder magnetometer K index is 5 now (71nT):

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

What does it mean when the density spikes... sorry if that has been already answered. This is a wonderfully informative thread but it's HUGE!

it is already rising at ACE

ACE Solar Conditions @ 20:53 UTC-
July 14, 2012
Solar Wind Speed : 611.1
Density: 10.7
Bz: -12.6

density = Mass = plasma that was ejected off the sun

Thanks! And may I just say how awesome it is that you guys take time out to educate the rest of us!

yeahhhh
thats talking
and more along the lines of what i expect from this event
im sooo hoping that we get the higher Kp once it gets dark on the east coast
i want to photo auroras tonight!

Big spike on the meteor thingy, btw
[link to www.meteorscan.com]

They still have the observed at 2 which seems too low.

SOHO SW plot shows the density is climbing:

[link to umtof.umd.edu]

ACE 6-hour plot:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

Solar wind speeds at 700.

Absorption is now looking a little more like it should [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov] considering that this is(I think)the Ninth Day of elevated Protons(apart from a brief interlude where they dropped back of) [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

GOES Magnetometer showing more deviation now [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov] .

Spaceweather.com has finally been brought up to kp=5 level, we are in it now!

It may be raining space junk today, hehe.