SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)

Hey...can't sleep...this storm is getting pretty serious..

Here's the last two hours of the USAF Wing data from their FTP server. The 1-hr prediction is Kp=7 and the 4-hr. prediction is Kp=8.85 (!). However, it looks like the latest "observed" is Kp=6.


2012 07 15 0700 0 2012 07 15 0746 5.33 47.0 2012 07 15 1046 7.67 227.0 6.00
2012 07 15 0715 0 2012 07 15 0804 5.67 49.0 2012 07 15 1104 8.00 229.0 6.00
2012 07 15 0730 1 2012 07 15 0817 5.67 47.0 2012 07 15 1117 8.00 227.0 6.00
2012 07 15 0745 1 2012 07 15 0825 7.33 41.0 2012 07 15 1125 9.00 221.0 6.00
2012 07 15 0800 1 2012 07 15 0843 7.67 43.0 2012 07 15 1143 9.00 223.0 6.00
2012 07 15 0815 1 2012 07 15 0900 7.67 45.0 2012 07 15 1200 9.00 225.0 6.00
2012 07 15 0830 0 2012 07 15 0912 7.33 43.0 2012 07 15 1212 9.00 223.0 6.00
2012 07 15 0845 1 2012 07 15 0928 7.00 43.0 2012 07 15 1228 8.86 223.0 6.00
2012 07 15 0900 1 2012 07 15 0944 7.00 44.0 2012 07 15 1244 8.85 224.0 6.00


[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

The ACE mag-field is stuck in a rut:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

Latest SW-MF model:

[link to ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov]

GLP'ers burned out their servers, haha. Ironic, ain't it?

LOL
Shes on the rise again...C1.2 atm
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

Kp 7- now... [link to www.theusner.eu]

Good morning, Starry eyes! You should take a walk and look for aurora, or at least check out Venus, Moon, & Jupiter.

the weather in slovenia since about 10th july is reacting to the solar activity imho.

All gone:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

?

I would but I'd probably wake the kids, so I'm going to stay put..lol..also to my disappointment it is cloudy outside! I've seen the northern lights before,but my husband never has...he was looking forward to it.

That's weird..can anyone explain this?

That was the proton rise from the X flare, starting to die off now, but the geo storm is still going :)

Moderate Geomagnetic Storming
Geomagnetic Storming reaching the Moderate G2 Level (Kp=6) is currently taking place early on Sunday morning.

ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 6
Threshold Reached: 2012 Jul 15 0748 UTC
Synoptic Period: 0600-0900 UTC
Active Warning: Yes
NOAA Scale: G2 - Moderate
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 55 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude. Induced Currents - Power grid fluctuations can occur. High-latitude power systems may experience voltage alarms. Aurora may be seen as low as New York to Wisconsin to Washington state.

[link to www.solarham.net]

It went from red, in a flash to what you see now, back to red, and now back to this. Ive been watching this for a few minutes now!

At least Potsdam has no political reasons to fudge the numbers. I think the stupid competition between NOAA & NASA is becoming a grudge match. That Wash. Post story yesterday pointing out their conflicting predictions was picked up by FOX NEWS and others. I even heard it repeated on the radio's headline news last night. My point is that NOAA may be downplaying this storm to match their predictions. This is a sad indication of where America is heading...senseless, petty, bitter in-fighting among bureaucrats.

Can anyone explain what exactly is going on, or atleast their best guess?? Where did this come from???

USAF Wing plot confirms observed Kp of 7!

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

Bz holding south near -18 nT for 4 hours now!

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

The four hour is at 9. Wow

Last Edited by Starry eyes on 07/15/2012 05:57 AM

Kp 7 now here too... [link to www.theusner.eu]

Good morning everyone ????? Or should I have stayed in bed ???

When I first checked this site the chance for mid-latitude aurora was 12%. Next time I looked it was 31%. Now it's at 76%!!!

They also state the Kp Index is at 7.33!!

[link to www.spaceweatherlive.com]

I'm in a bad location (city lights) for aurora, but I'm gonna look anyway.

I'm still in bed on my phone. :P I can't sleep!

Uhh the NOAA Kp index does use a compilation:



Oops forgot to add link: [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

Only the K-index (not Kp) alerts here [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov] are based solely on Boulder.

Last Edited by madajs on 07/15/2012 06:08 AM

GOES Magnetometer(for what its' worth) [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

As well the Electron Fraggle [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

Only qualifies for a 'Official' Kp 6 on their site [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

Watch out, they revise their observations. Earlier they had up 3 hours worth of observed Kp 6 and then they retroactively downgraded most of it to 5 later on.

Well, I stayed up all Friday night and last night watching for this CME. I will say it has been eventful the last few hours, but time to sleep. I will check back in about 10 hours. Yes, I sleep about 10 hours a night; kind of feel guilty about that. Lol. Really, it is a beautiful thing! :)

Have a great day everyone!!!

Get good rest Vesper

Shouldn't you be out enjoying the gorgeous Canadian aurora this morning?

Kp=9 in a few hours?

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]