SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily) | |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 19720771 United States 07/15/2012 10:42 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov] it states: The predictions are color coded according to the amount of solar wind data that was available for each model run, ranging from green (most data) to yellow (little data). Well, it just switched from yellow to green on the graph. I'm assuming due to "more" data, this prediction is now "more" accurate ? |
Parvati User ID: 7521845 New Zealand 07/15/2012 10:45 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Serious dancing... [link to iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080] :Inan: Truth [Satya] indeed conquers! Not untruth, falsehood. Untruth is all discord, out of harmony with the Real. The Real is a spontaneous unfolding of the One. - Mundaka Upanishad III.1.6 |
madajs User ID: 6377684 Canada 07/15/2012 10:45 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
nerdrage88sasr User ID: 19662783 Australia 07/15/2012 10:45 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | According to the user's guide at USAF Wing Kp Quoting: TS66 [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov] it states: The predictions are color coded according to the amount of solar wind data that was available for each model run, ranging from green (most data) to yellow (little data). Well, it just switched from yellow to green on the graph. I'm assuming due to "more" data, this prediction is now "more" accurate ? thats what i believe..?? Tec chart.. [link to www.haarp.alaska.edu] "Luck is what happens when preparation meets Oppurtunity"-- Seneca (5BC-65AD) |
aaronnoraa711 User ID: 18841244 United States 07/15/2012 10:47 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | The proton density is starting to rise. If the BznT stays -, this could get wicked. Quoting: tomasgod1 Latest Ace Data 2012 07 15 14:18 UTC Proton Density 3.4 P/cc Solar wind 562.7 km/s BznT - 16.4 This is nuts.. Does anyone know when was the last time we got hit like this? Last month. ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 6 Threshold Reached: 2012 Jun 16 2245 UTC So far it hasn't been any worse than that on the NOAA timeline. [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov] This is grossly misleading. Using K index alone to compare the severity of storms is not accurate. Compare the HAARP fluxgate magnetometer's reading from June 16th to today and you have just one example of why the K index alone (that of which is up to debate on it's accuracy in the first place) can't be used for storm comparison. [link to www.haarp.alaska.edu] Select "one month" under Plot Width and 1000 nt under Plot Scale, then select the "update" button below to see the graph. Last Edited by aaronnoraa711 on 07/15/2012 11:10 AM |
nerdrage88sasr User ID: 19662783 Australia 07/15/2012 10:48 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | as SC would say...were 'Fokked'...check out the Magnetopause.. [link to ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov] "Luck is what happens when preparation meets Oppurtunity"-- Seneca (5BC-65AD) |
nerdrage88sasr User ID: 19662783 Australia 07/15/2012 10:50 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | The proton density is starting to rise. If the BznT stays -, this could get wicked. Quoting: tomasgod1 Latest Ace Data 2012 07 15 14:18 UTC Proton Density 3.4 P/cc Solar wind 562.7 km/s BznT - 16.4 This is nuts.. Does anyone know when was the last time we got hit like this? Last month. ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 6 Threshold Reached: 2012 Jun 16 2245 UTC So far it hasn't been any worse than that on the NOAA timeline. [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov] This is grossly misleading. Using K index alone to compare the severity of storms is not accurate. Compare the HAARP fluxgate magnetometer's reading from June 16th to today and you have just one example of why the K index alone (that of which is up to debate on it's accuracy in the first place) can't be used for storm comparison. [link to www.haarp.alaska.edu] Select "one month" under Plot Width to see the graph. agree, there are far too many variables for comparisons really... This is the worst one (with some weird happenings) that i hae seen for a while... And it could have been worse...lucky no large Flares while we are quite vulnerable.. Peace "Luck is what happens when preparation meets Oppurtunity"-- Seneca (5BC-65AD) |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 1792728 United Kingdom 07/15/2012 10:52 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
nerdrage88sasr User ID: 19662783 Australia 07/15/2012 10:53 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Lets not forget...we may have more 'coming around the mountain..' check out this from Ismal.. [link to www.lmsal.com] Peace "Luck is what happens when preparation meets Oppurtunity"-- Seneca (5BC-65AD) |
psyoptics User ID: 14240707 United States 07/15/2012 10:53 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | [link to www.bartol.udel.edu] [link to neutronm.bartol.udel.edu] CR's going down again. getting close to last march what happened on 7/10?????? look at MCMurdo data? very odd a good video editor can make anyone say anything the editor wants. |
psyoptics User ID: 14240707 United States 07/15/2012 10:55 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Lets not forget...we may have more 'coming around the mountain..' Quoting: nerdrage88sasr check out this from Ismal.. [link to www.lmsal.com] Peace [link to sidc.oma.be] is that it right behind old 1512? a good video editor can make anyone say anything the editor wants. |
psyoptics User ID: 14240707 United States 07/15/2012 10:58 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | just a silly question? do all the worlds countries get their data from NASA? so if the data is off...NASA would be behind this....or would all countries need to follow at data changes? a good video editor can make anyone say anything the editor wants. |
nerdrage88sasr User ID: 19662783 Australia 07/15/2012 10:58 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | [link to www.bartol.udel.edu] Quoting: psyoptics [link to neutronm.bartol.udel.edu] CR's going down again. getting close to last march what happened on 7/10?????? look at MCMurdo data? very odd lol..McMurdo went to McMaccas? sorry has to be a glitch Peace Psy "Luck is what happens when preparation meets Oppurtunity"-- Seneca (5BC-65AD) |
nerdrage88sasr User ID: 19662783 Australia 07/15/2012 11:05 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Could you simplify that for your average idiot please? I can see lots of colours, including red round the earth.. That's bad right? The 'Fokk Ring' simulation..(and remember, these are just sims, guesswork if you like)..shows the RC boundary wrapped close to the earth...look at the image below to see what it normally looks like. heres a good read if your REALLY interested.. [link to mcf.gsfc.nasa.gov] Peace "Luck is what happens when preparation meets Oppurtunity"-- Seneca (5BC-65AD) |
tomasgod1 User ID: 19599487 United States 07/15/2012 11:13 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | I see NOAA is adding alerts on their timeline to YESTERDAY! haha They added an expected k index of 6 under their k index of 5 reached...what a bunch. [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov] Last Edited by tomasgod1 on 07/15/2012 11:14 AM _______ Blog [link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com] YouTube Channel [link to www.youtube.com] "Give me Liberty, or give me Death!" FOUNDING FATHER, Patrick Henry (May 29, 1736 – June 6, 1799) |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 13216008 United States 07/15/2012 11:17 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
madajs User ID: 6377684 Canada 07/15/2012 11:23 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | K indices updated [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov] And always, he fought the temptation to choose a clear, safe course, warning: "That path leads ever down into stagnation." |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 19141775 Netherlands 07/15/2012 11:23 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | I am learning so much from all of you! You all are truly amazing with your knowledge! Quoting: Anonymous Coward 17338098 I have a few questions. Does earths magnetic field begin to weaken when we are experiencing a longer lasting geomagnetic storm? If we are experiencing a geomagnetic storm and there would be another X Flare, would that worsen the effects when the first particles reach earth in that 8 minute time frame? I am still learning so I hope I worded my questions right. Good questions, I'll try answer but I can barely type at this point. Hopefully someone else will help out here. The first question depends on many factors. In this case, with the Bz well-south for a long period of time, I would tend to say "yes". Because of the direct connection to the solar wind plasma, more energy from the sun is charging up the ionosphere, the magneto-tail, and the radiation belts. This causes stronger aurora, magnetic disturbances, and ground currents. Usually, most of this energy is deflected by the Earth's magnetic field. Another X-flare now would probably not have any more severe effects on the surface, but a proton storm may have a bigger effect on the ionosphere which is already disturbed. Now another big CME would definitely have a stronger effect because the radiation belts are already charged up. I hope that's corrrect, lol. |
aaronnoraa711 User ID: 18841244 United States 07/15/2012 11:24 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Radio reception here in Seattle is going in and out in waves. This takes a while to get through the whole simulation, but it's worth watching, gets a bit scary over the last two hours, pushing inside the bounds of geosynchronous orbit. [link to iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080] |
Cosmogenesis12 User ID: 19613410 Portugal 07/15/2012 11:29 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Ninn and People see this 1h 30 mns U gonna be amazed with the info contained... and dont give up at the beginin cause it really says the true.... [link to www.youtube.com] |
Cosmogenesis12 User ID: 19613410 Portugal 07/15/2012 11:30 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Ninn and People see this 1h 30 mns Quoting: Cosmogenesis12 19613410 U gonna be amazed with the info contained... and dont give up at the beginin cause it really says the true.... [link to www.youtube.com] It says the true why is all this hapenin... and what we need a do Namasté |
Starry eyes User ID: 13160787 United States 07/15/2012 11:32 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
Starry eyes User ID: 13160787 United States 07/15/2012 11:33 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 1792728 United Kingdom 07/15/2012 11:36 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
SnakeBite User ID: 13658852 Canada 07/15/2012 11:39 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Is it normal for this to get to such a low point??? [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov] |
Starry eyes User ID: 13160787 United States 07/15/2012 11:50 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
Starry eyes User ID: 13160787 United States 07/15/2012 11:50 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
SnakeBite User ID: 13658852 Canada 07/15/2012 11:53 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Okay, thanks for the response:D I think im going to pass out, ive fallen asleep once already :P Happy Hunting, see you guys when im up (hope theres something awesome for me to come back to Last Edited by SnakeBite on 07/15/2012 11:57 AM |
Starry eyes User ID: 13160787 United States 07/15/2012 11:54 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | No problem This by no means indicates the CME has passed. We still have a while. :) Last Edited by Starry eyes on 07/15/2012 11:55 AM ***Earth was once considered to be flat. Anything is possible.*** |
aaronnoraa711 User ID: 18841244 United States 07/15/2012 12:00 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | It's weird that the magnetic field looks like it is really being pushed, but the Kp is going down. Is this suppose to work this way? I don't think it is.. considering that the magnetic field is widening again.. further than it has been over any time the last 4 hours, [link to www.haarp.alaska.edu] the proton density is at 2.9 [link to www.spaceweatherlive.com] and the magnetopause is in disarray [link to ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov] (once the page loads, hit reload to see the graph showing the field lines if it doesn't show the first time.. it isn't for me) Last Edited by aaronnoraa711 on 07/15/2012 12:02 PM |