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SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)

 
Anonymous Coward
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09/02/2012 02:27 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
Big Bear H-alpha movie shows AR1560 flaring. Keep in mind we saw a CME from a C3 flare earlier today.

[link to halpha.nso.edu]
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


C-7 or so?
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
BONK :dubya: for doom status updates
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09/02/2012 02:28 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
Big Bear H-alpha movie shows AR1560 flaring. Keep in mind we saw a CME from a C3 flare earlier today.

[link to halpha.nso.edu]
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


C-7 or so?
 Quoting: SpiderJones


C5.5
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
Anonymous Coward
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09/02/2012 02:29 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
Big Bear H-alpha movie shows AR1560 flaring. Keep in mind we saw a CME from a C3 flare earlier today.

[link to halpha.nso.edu]
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


C-7 or so?
 Quoting: SpiderJones


C5.5
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
 Quoting: TS66


thanks!
this is definately the spot to watch today!
shadasonic

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09/02/2012 02:40 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
Big Bear H-alpha movie shows AR1560 flaring. Keep in mind we saw a CME from a C3 flare earlier today.

[link to halpha.nso.edu]
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


Ramping up !!!

[link to lasp.colorado.edu]
 Quoting: TS66


Yes indeed, we've been waiting for that one to show up
“One of the saddest lessons of history is this: If we’ve been bamboozled long enough, we tend to reject any evidence of the bamboozle. We’re no longer interested in finding out the truth. The bamboozle has captured us. It’s simply too painful to acknowledge, even to ourselves, that we’ve been taken. Once you give a charlatan power over you, you almost never get it back.” – Carl Sagan
Anonymous Coward
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09/02/2012 02:50 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
Quakedoom and Sundoom instead of writing papers and solving equations...life as a 30 year old college student.



*Not the smilie I was going for, but a funny one nonetheless! hf
:headache:
madajs

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09/02/2012 03:07 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
Good morning all hf

According to Solen [link to www.solen.info]

Region 11560 [N03W05] developed further with a magnetic delta structure forming in the trailing spot section. A major flare is possible. The region was the source of a long duration C2.8 event peaking before 04h UTC on September 2. This event was associated with a CME which could be aimed at Earth given the center disk location of the source. STEREO-A displays a CME, however, LASCO imagery may change the evaluation of the importance of the CME.

The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on September 2. A CME could reach Earth on September 3 and cause active to major storm conditions that day and on September 4. The CME observed early on September 2 could reach Earth on September 5 and cause unsettled to minor storm conditions.

20-60% chance of M and/or X flares
 Quoting: TS66

This 2nd CME looks to hit us square on the nose

[link to iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080]

Nice little one-two punch, with the filament ejection hitting us tomorrow then this second cme hitting us wednesday. First one holds the arms while the second one punches the gut? : )
And always, he fought the temptation to choose a clear, safe course, warning: "That path leads ever down into stagnation."
mistersplinter

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09/02/2012 03:16 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
Good morning all hf

According to Solen [link to www.solen.info]

Region 11560 [N03W05] developed further with a magnetic delta structure forming in the trailing spot section. A major flare is possible. The region was the source of a long duration C2.8 event peaking before 04h UTC on September 2. This event was associated with a CME which could be aimed at Earth given the center disk location of the source. STEREO-A displays a CME, however, LASCO imagery may change the evaluation of the importance of the CME.

The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on September 2. A CME could reach Earth on September 3 and cause active to major storm conditions that day and on September 4. The CME observed early on September 2 could reach Earth on September 5 and cause unsettled to minor storm conditions.

20-60% chance of M and/or X flares
 Quoting: TS66

This 2nd CME looks to hit us square on the nose

[link to iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080]

Nice little one-two punch, with the filament ejection hitting us tomorrow then this second cme hitting us wednesday. First one holds the arms while the second one punches the gut? : )
 Quoting: madajs


sure does look like it.

good catch!
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." -- Albert Einstein
NiNzrez
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09/02/2012 03:21 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
Shows mid lat aurora [link to amunters.home.xs4all.nl] Solarham shows it too [link to www.solarham.net] wtf
 Quoting: BloodyT3CH


its because the Bz is so far south (in the neg)

ACE DATA:

Right now is...
ACE data as of 19:00 UTC Sept 2st 2012
Solar Wind Speed: 315.6
Density: 1.5
Bz: -7.8

Was...
ACE data as of 00:24 UTC Sept 2nd 2012
Solar Wind Speed: 311.5
Density: 0.8
Bz: -2.7


The Bz represents the positive/negative (Pos = North, Neg = South) direction of the solar winds.
The farther south the solar winds are when they hit our magnetosphere, the more they connect with Earths magnetic field = The larger the geomagnetic storm it creates.
If the Bz is far south in the neg -, you do not need super fast solar winds or high density to stir up a geomagnetic storm. Because when it is far south in the neg-, a larger amount of what is hitting Earths magnetic field is connecting and getting in.

The strong geomagnetic storms we see are caused by a far south(neg -) Bz combined along with faster Solar Winds and high amounts of Density.


Because of this, the 3 main charts of data we watch are the "Solar wind speed", "Density" and the "Bz"

Watching this short animation will help to put a visual to the explination above :)


[link to www.youtube.com]
Anonymous Coward
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09/02/2012 03:24 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
Hi everyone!hf Anyone knows how much time lefts to this dense plasma to arrive? Thank you again for all this wonderfull brainstorming!
 Quoting: Luisport


the HI2 image has not updates since this mornings latest image at 07:48
[link to stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov]
it is now 19:21 UTC
NiNzrez  (OP)

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09/02/2012 03:26 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
Shows mid lat aurora [link to amunters.home.xs4all.nl] Solarham shows it too [link to www.solarham.net] wtf
 Quoting: BloodyT3CH


its because the Bz is so far south (in the neg)

ACE DATA:

Right now is...
ACE data as of 19:00 UTC Sept 2st 2012
Solar Wind Speed: 315.6
Density: 1.5
Bz: -7.8

Was...
ACE data as of 00:24 UTC Sept 2nd 2012
Solar Wind Speed: 311.5
Density: 0.8
Bz: -2.7


The Bz represents the positive/negative (Pos = North, Neg = South) direction of the solar winds.
The farther south the solar winds are when they hit our magnetosphere, the more they connect with Earths magnetic field = The larger the geomagnetic storm it creates.
If the Bz is far south in the neg -, you do not need super fast solar winds or high density to stir up a geomagnetic storm. Because when it is far south in the neg-, a larger amount of what is hitting Earths magnetic field is connecting and getting in.

The strong geomagnetic storms we see are caused by a far south(neg -) Bz combined along with faster Solar Winds and high amounts of Density.


Because of this, the 3 main charts of data we watch are the "Solar wind speed", "Density" and the "Bz"

Watching this short animation will help to put a visual to the explination above :)


[link to www.youtube.com]
 Quoting: NiNzrez 12844841


was not logged in so my video did not post
lets try this again ^^



also, for those of you wanting to learn more about whats going on, i suggest watching this


[link to www.youtube.com]

Last Edited by NiNzrez on 09/02/2012 03:27 PM
AkivaJeff

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09/02/2012 03:30 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
Shows mid lat aurora [link to amunters.home.xs4all.nl] Solarham shows it too [link to www.solarham.net] wtf
 Quoting: BloodyT3CH


its because the Bz is so far south (in the neg)

ACE DATA:

Right now is...
ACE data as of 19:00 UTC Sept 2st 2012
Solar Wind Speed: 315.6
Density: 1.5
Bz: -7.8

Was...
ACE data as of 00:24 UTC Sept 2nd 2012
Solar Wind Speed: 311.5
Density: 0.8
Bz: -2.7


The Bz represents the positive/negative (Pos = North, Neg = South) direction of the solar winds.
The farther south the solar winds are when they hit our magnetosphere, the more they connect with Earths magnetic field = The larger the geomagnetic storm it creates.
If the Bz is far south in the neg -, you do not need super fast solar winds or high density to stir up a geomagnetic storm. Because when it is far south in the neg-, a larger amount of what is hitting Earths magnetic field is connecting and getting in.

The strong geomagnetic storms we see are caused by a far south(neg -) Bz combined along with faster Solar Winds and high amounts of Density.


Because of this, the 3 main charts of data we watch are the "Solar wind speed", "Density" and the "Bz"

Watching this short animation will help to put a visual to the explination above :)


[link to www.youtube.com]
 Quoting: NiNzrez 12844841


Thanks NiN, that was great. So the solar wind compresses the sun facing side, high density penetrates further?
again, thanks

(didn't mean to use the word "penetrate")

Last Edited by AkivaJeff on 09/02/2012 03:32 PM
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whiteangel
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09/02/2012 03:36 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

Kp-6 on College

[link to www.haarp.alaska.edu]
Heating up

Bz -7.9

Last Edited by WhiteAngel on 09/02/2012 03:37 PM
Isaiah 5:20 KJV
Woe unto them that call evil good, and good evil; that put darkness for light, and light for darkness; that put bitter for sweet, and sweet for bitter!
Thread: Being Prepared - Updated Basic Food List On Page One
madajs

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09/02/2012 03:40 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
For 3 hours today the DST index read -28 -32 -34; a minor geomagnetic storm consists of the range -30 to -50, so a storm, albeit very weak, occurring just a couple hours ago.

[link to wdc.kugi.kyoto-u.ac.jp]
And always, he fought the temptation to choose a clear, safe course, warning: "That path leads ever down into stagnation."
Isis One

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09/02/2012 04:46 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
Just want to thank NiN and everyone for this thread - it's the first thing I check in the morning, and the last thing I check at night. I'm a lurker because I am learning the sun science and don't have anything smart to contribute yet.

You've all inspired me so much that I went back to school (after being a stay at home mom for 25 years) this past week, and the first class I signed up for was Astronomy! I'm having so much fun!

Thanks, one and all! hf
 Quoting: parrotsandwhiskey


Thats sooo fantastic parrotmom!!!
Spread the word, change the collective conscious......
THERE IS MORE THAN ENOUGH OF EVERYTHING TO GO AROUND

When you are undisciplined, the universe is extremely forgiving and when you are disciplined, the universe is extremely generous. Me

One doesn't discover new lands without consenting to lose sight, for a very long time, of the shore. Andre Gide
[link to www.godlikeproductions.com]
SnakeBite

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09/02/2012 05:00 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
WOOHOO i finally got myself a new computer! Have not been able to access the site for a while now! SO GLAD to be back, looks like i have some catching up to do! We've got some fun brewing up in the skies i see5a
shenue

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09/02/2012 05:06 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
WOOHOO i finally got myself a new computer! Have not been able to access the site for a while now! SO GLAD to be back, looks like i have some catching up to do! We've got some fun brewing up in the skies i see5a
 Quoting: SnakeBite


Welcome Back !! :SmilyThumbsUp:
Watch your thoughts; they become words. Watch your words; they become actions. Watch your actions; they become habits. Watch your habits; they become your character. Watch your character; it becomes your destiny.
Isis One

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
 Quoting: Luisport


Here's the vid Luisport was trying to embed, interesting POV


Spread the word, change the collective conscious......
THERE IS MORE THAN ENOUGH OF EVERYTHING TO GO AROUND

When you are undisciplined, the universe is extremely forgiving and when you are disciplined, the universe is extremely generous. Me

One doesn't discover new lands without consenting to lose sight, for a very long time, of the shore. Andre Gide
[link to www.godlikeproductions.com]
Isis One

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09/02/2012 05:25 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
looks like spaceweather added to their report on thei Filament CME
"NOAA forecasters estimate a 40% chance of strong polar geomagnetic storms when the cloud arrives on Sept. 3rd."

the front of the CME arrived yesterday and barley glanced or did anything at all
but, it would appear that NOAA is also watching what i am, and thats the super black dense mass from this CME that is still enrout in space
Here you can see the mass im speaking of off to the fer left in this image as it is seen at 01:47 UTC
[link to stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov]
and here we can see it much better in the latest HI2 image at 07:48
[link to stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov]

believe me, it that does hit, we will all know it

here is the images of the CME cloud on HI1 for Sept 26, 2011
that cloud caused a Kp8 Geomagnetic Storm
[link to stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov]
[link to stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov]
i added these to show how its more about impact
and when we see very dense mass such as what we see today, we are super lucky when it does not give a direct hit
Because if the cloud on the 2 images directly above can cause a Kp8 (with a good hit) can you just imagine what the CME cloud we see today would do if it hit us just right?
 Quoting: NiNzrez 12844841


Thanks much for that and this is what makes you and this thread so awesome, the comparative analysis, that is where one really learns, you are an excellent thinker and teacher NIN!!
Spread the word, change the collective conscious......
THERE IS MORE THAN ENOUGH OF EVERYTHING TO GO AROUND

When you are undisciplined, the universe is extremely forgiving and when you are disciplined, the universe is extremely generous. Me

One doesn't discover new lands without consenting to lose sight, for a very long time, of the shore. Andre Gide
[link to www.godlikeproductions.com]
whiteangel
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09/02/2012 05:41 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
Shows mid lat aurora [link to amunters.home.xs4all.nl] Solarham shows it too [link to www.solarham.net] wtf
 Quoting: BloodyT3CH


its because the Bz is so far south (in the neg)

ACE DATA:

Right now is...
ACE data as of 19:00 UTC Sept 2st 2012
Solar Wind Speed: 315.6
Density: 1.5
Bz: -7.8

Was...
ACE data as of 00:24 UTC Sept 2nd 2012
Solar Wind Speed: 311.5
Density: 0.8
Bz: -2.7


The Bz represents the positive/negative (Pos = North, Neg = South) direction of the solar winds.
The farther south the solar winds are when they hit our magnetosphere, the more they connect with Earths magnetic field = The larger the geomagnetic storm it creates.
If the Bz is far south in the neg -, you do not need super fast solar winds or high density to stir up a geomagnetic storm. Because when it is far south in the neg-, a larger amount of what is hitting Earths magnetic field is connecting and getting in.

The strong geomagnetic storms we see are caused by a far south(neg -) Bz combined along with faster Solar Winds and high amounts of Density.


Because of this, the 3 main charts of data we watch are the "Solar wind speed", "Density" and the "Bz"

Watching this short animation will help to put a visual to the explination above :)


[link to www.youtube.com]
 Quoting: NiNzrez 12844841


Bz is now -8.5, winds still low at only 308.

[link to www.haarp.alaska.edu]
Isaiah 5:20 KJV
Woe unto them that call evil good, and good evil; that put darkness for light, and light for darkness; that put bitter for sweet, and sweet for bitter!
Thread: Being Prepared - Updated Basic Food List On Page One
Isis One

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09/02/2012 05:46 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
WOOHOO i finally got myself a new computer! Have not been able to access the site for a while now! SO GLAD to be back, looks like i have some catching up to do! We've got some fun brewing up in the skies i see5a
 Quoting: SnakeBite


Hi SB, glad you have your funny self back, you were missed
Spread the word, change the collective conscious......
THERE IS MORE THAN ENOUGH OF EVERYTHING TO GO AROUND

When you are undisciplined, the universe is extremely forgiving and when you are disciplined, the universe is extremely generous. Me

One doesn't discover new lands without consenting to lose sight, for a very long time, of the shore. Andre Gide
[link to www.godlikeproductions.com]
Isis One

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09/02/2012 05:47 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
Where'd everybody go???? ITs just startin to get real???
Spread the word, change the collective conscious......
THERE IS MORE THAN ENOUGH OF EVERYTHING TO GO AROUND

When you are undisciplined, the universe is extremely forgiving and when you are disciplined, the universe is extremely generous. Me

One doesn't discover new lands without consenting to lose sight, for a very long time, of the shore. Andre Gide
[link to www.godlikeproductions.com]
Anonymous Coward
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09/02/2012 05:49 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
Cant get enough sleep today.... dooooom.
nerdrage88sasr

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09/02/2012 05:57 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
WOOHOO i finally got myself a new computer! Have not been able to access the site for a while now! SO GLAD to be back, looks like i have some catching up to do! We've got some fun brewing up in the skies i see5a
 Quoting: SnakeBite


Welcome Back !! :SmilyThumbsUp:
 Quoting: shenue


Heya Snake!
Peace
"Luck is what happens when preparation meets Oppurtunity"-- Seneca (5BC-65AD)
nerdrage88sasr

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09/02/2012 05:58 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
Bz is now -8.5, winds still low at only 308.

[link to www.haarp.alaska.edu]
 Quoting: whiteangel


YEP, here she comes in Haarp...
"Luck is what happens when preparation meets Oppurtunity"-- Seneca (5BC-65AD)
whiteangel
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09/02/2012 06:03 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
Got my eyes glued and was surprised this thread isn't popping with everyone talking about it.
Isaiah 5:20 KJV
Woe unto them that call evil good, and good evil; that put darkness for light, and light for darkness; that put bitter for sweet, and sweet for bitter!
Thread: Being Prepared - Updated Basic Food List On Page One
SnakeBite

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09/02/2012 06:12 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
WOOHOO i finally got myself a new computer! Have not been able to access the site for a while now! SO GLAD to be back, looks like i have some catching up to do! We've got some fun brewing up in the skies i see5a
 Quoting: SnakeBite


Welcome Back !! :SmilyThumbsUp:
 Quoting: shenue


Heya Snake!
Peace
 Quoting: nerdrage88sasr


Howdy, howdy, howdy! I can now resume my learning experience:D
I have work in 2 hours which sucks, hopefully i can keep up on my phone. Keeping my eyes glued to the sky and the screen:D
shadasonic

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09/02/2012 06:17 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
[link to iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080]

Silly question whats the white ring going right of sol in the simulation, a magnetic line circle?
“One of the saddest lessons of history is this: If we’ve been bamboozled long enough, we tend to reject any evidence of the bamboozle. We’re no longer interested in finding out the truth. The bamboozle has captured us. It’s simply too painful to acknowledge, even to ourselves, that we’ve been taken. Once you give a charlatan power over you, you almost never get it back.” – Carl Sagan
whiteangel
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09/02/2012 06:24 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
Isaiah 5:20 KJV
Woe unto them that call evil good, and good evil; that put darkness for light, and light for darkness; that put bitter for sweet, and sweet for bitter!
Thread: Being Prepared - Updated Basic Food List On Page One
optimum judgment

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09/02/2012 06:25 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
Shows mid lat aurora [link to amunters.home.xs4all.nl] Solarham shows it too [link to www.solarham.net] wtf
 Quoting: BloodyT3CH


its because the Bz is so far south (in the neg)

ACE DATA:

Right now is...
ACE data as of 19:00 UTC Sept 2st 2012
Solar Wind Speed: 315.6
Density: 1.5
Bz: -7.8

Was...
ACE data as of 00:24 UTC Sept 2nd 2012
Solar Wind Speed: 311.5
Density: 0.8
Bz: -2.7


The Bz represents the positive/negative (Pos = North, Neg = South) direction of the solar winds.
The farther south the solar winds are when they hit our magnetosphere, the more they connect with Earths magnetic field = The larger the geomagnetic storm it creates.
If the Bz is far south in the neg -, you do not need super fast solar winds or high density to stir up a geomagnetic storm. Because when it is far south in the neg-, a larger amount of what is hitting Earths magnetic field is connecting and getting in.

The strong geomagnetic storms we see are caused by a far south(neg -) Bz combined along with faster Solar Winds and high amounts of Density.


Because of this, the 3 main charts of data we watch are the "Solar wind speed", "Density" and the "Bz"

Watching this short animation will help to put a visual to the explination above :)


[link to www.youtube.com]
 Quoting: NiNzrez 12844841


was not logged in so my video did not post
lets try this again ^^



also, for those of you wanting to learn more about whats going on, i suggest watching this


[link to www.youtube.com]
 Quoting: NiNzrez


The bz has been south facing for some time now but no one talks about it





GLP