SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily) | |
whiteangel also known at WA User ID: 1775746 United States 09/02/2012 06:32 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Just a C-2.1 Isaiah 5:20 KJV Woe unto them that call evil good, and good evil; that put darkness for light, and light for darkness; that put bitter for sweet, and sweet for bitter! Thread: Being Prepared - Updated Basic Food List On Page One |
Hugh M Eye User ID: 22914370 United States 09/02/2012 06:35 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | I'm anticipating a big flare from AR1560 soon. It's position near the equator leads me to believe that volatile forces are building up. In some of the SDO images it almost looks like dual hurricanes of magnetism winding in opposite directions. SDO/AIA Composite: [link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov] Latest SDO/AIA 171a image: [link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov] Any significant activity from this region would have geo-effective consequences. HMI Magetogram- :1560magneto: HMI Intensitygram- :1560-9/2: |
AkivaJeff User ID: 19183578 United States 09/02/2012 06:36 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
Hugh M Eye User ID: 22914370 United States 09/02/2012 06:42 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
whiteangel also known at WA User ID: 1775746 United States 09/02/2012 06:43 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Just surprised AR1560 hasn't got BGD yet, maybe it will by the next update, sure looks it or close to it already. Isaiah 5:20 KJV Woe unto them that call evil good, and good evil; that put darkness for light, and light for darkness; that put bitter for sweet, and sweet for bitter! Thread: Being Prepared - Updated Basic Food List On Page One |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 17137251 Venezuela 09/02/2012 06:44 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Shows mid lat aurora [link to amunters.home.xs4all.nl] Solarham shows it too [link to www.solarham.net] Quoting: BloodyT3CH its because the Bz is so far south (in the neg) ACE DATA: Right now is... ACE data as of 19:00 UTC Sept 2st 2012 Solar Wind Speed: 315.6 Density: 1.5 Bz: -7.8 Was... ACE data as of 00:24 UTC Sept 2nd 2012 Solar Wind Speed: 311.5 Density: 0.8 Bz: -2.7 The Bz represents the positive/negative (Pos = North, Neg = South) direction of the solar winds. The farther south the solar winds are when they hit our magnetosphere, the more they connect with Earths magnetic field = The larger the geomagnetic storm it creates. If the Bz is far south in the neg -, you do not need super fast solar winds or high density to stir up a geomagnetic storm. Because when it is far south in the neg-, a larger amount of what is hitting Earths magnetic field is connecting and getting in. The strong geomagnetic storms we see are caused by a far south(neg -) Bz combined along with faster Solar Winds and high amounts of Density. Because of this, the 3 main charts of data we watch are the "Solar wind speed", "Density" and the "Bz" Watching this short animation will help to put a visual to the explination above :) [link to www.youtube.com] was not logged in so my video did not post lets try this again ^^ also, for those of you wanting to learn more about whats going on, i suggest watching this [link to www.youtube.com] The bz has been south facing for some time now but no one talks about it Hi mates, I think that this -Bz are coming from the "Heliospheric Current Sheet" where the earth will be going to cross. [link to gong.nso.edu] |
PsycoCandy User ID: 23067734 Brazil 09/02/2012 06:45 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | To resume the fantastic explanation of NiN: Added 9/2/2012 @ 20:20 UTC Southward Bz The Bz component of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) is currently tipped south and this could allow the solar wind to interact with Earth's magnetosphere. This may lead to increased geomagnetic activity at very high latitudes. [link to www.solarham.net] Thanks NiN... Last Edited by PsycoCandy on 09/02/2012 06:47 PM |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 17137251 Venezuela 09/02/2012 06:58 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Just surprised AR1560 hasn't got BGD yet, maybe it will by the next update, sure looks it or close to it already. Quoting: whiteangel The guys of solen.info had catalogued the AR11560 like BGD. [link to www.solen.info] |
mistersplinter User ID: 12261497 United States 09/02/2012 07:04 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | I am still around...lurking and waiting. This things been a tangled mess for hours [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov] "I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." -- Albert Einstein |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 2215477 United States 09/02/2012 07:05 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Since this morning I believe ..... I don't understand why the agencies aren't on the same page on this. Good morning all Quoting: TS66 According to Solen [link to www.solen.info] Region 11560 [N03W05] developed further with a magnetic delta structure forming in the trailing spot section. A major flare is possible. The region was the source of a long duration C2.8 event peaking before 04h UTC on September 2. This event was associated with a CME which could be aimed at Earth given the center disk location of the source. STEREO-A displays a CME, however, LASCO imagery may change the evaluation of the importance of the CME. The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on September 2. A CME could reach Earth on September 3 and cause active to major storm conditions that day and on September 4. The CME observed early on September 2 could reach Earth on September 5 and cause unsettled to minor storm conditions. 20-60% chance of M and/or X flares Just surprised AR1560 hasn't got BGD yet, maybe it will by the next update, sure looks it or close to it already. Quoting: whiteangel The guys of solen.info had catalogued the AR11560 like BGD. [link to www.solen.info] |
Hugh M Eye User ID: 22914370 United States 09/02/2012 07:15 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | To resume the fantastic explanation of NiN: Quoting: PsycoCandy Added 9/2/2012 @ 20:20 UTC Southward Bz The Bz component of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) is currently tipped south and this could allow the solar wind to interact with Earth's magnetosphere. This may lead to increased geomagnetic activity at very high latitudes. [link to www.solarham.net] Thanks NiN... The predictive models show the IMF should be North (+) now. NOAA and NASA seem to have dart-throwing chimps making their forecasts lately. By the way, whatever became of the 4 million MPH CME that supposed to slam us yesterday? At least the chimps work for bananas; the no-nothing Phd.'s are a festering, bottomless money pit. The Rise of the Chimps, Part II will continue after this commercial............. IMF 3-Day Model: [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov] More useless models here: [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov] |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 2215477 United States 09/02/2012 07:21 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | To resume the fantastic explanation of NiN: Quoting: PsycoCandy Added 9/2/2012 @ 20:20 UTC Southward Bz The Bz component of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) is currently tipped south and this could allow the solar wind to interact with Earth's magnetosphere. This may lead to increased geomagnetic activity at very high latitudes. [link to www.solarham.net] Thanks NiN... The predictive models show the IMF should be North (+) now. NOAA and NASA seem to have dart-throwing chimps making their forecasts lately. By the way, whatever became of the 4 million MPH CME that supposed to slam us yesterday? At least the chimps work for bananas; the no-nothing Phd.'s are a festering, bottomless money pit. The Rise of the Chimps, Part II will continue after this commercial............. IMF 3-Day Model: [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov] More useless models here: [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov] Yup you're right. Dr Strong let us down again ... |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 2215477 United States 09/02/2012 07:22 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Looks like we just reached a 4. ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 Threshold Reached: 2012 Sep 02 2305 UTC Synoptic Period: 2100-2400 UTC Active Warning: Yes Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude. Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur. Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska. |
shadasonic User ID: 15732022 United States 09/02/2012 07:41 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Just surprised AR1560 hasn't got BGD yet, maybe it will by the next update, sure looks it or close to it already. Quoting: whiteangel Needs the penumbra around the center bi polar umbrae “One of the saddest lessons of history is this: If we’ve been bamboozled long enough, we tend to reject any evidence of the bamboozle. We’re no longer interested in finding out the truth. The bamboozle has captured us. It’s simply too painful to acknowledge, even to ourselves, that we’ve been taken. Once you give a charlatan power over you, you almost never get it back.” – Carl Sagan |
shadasonic User ID: 15732022 United States 09/02/2012 07:43 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | To resume the fantastic explanation of NiN: Quoting: PsycoCandy Added 9/2/2012 @ 20:20 UTC Southward Bz The Bz component of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) is currently tipped south and this could allow the solar wind to interact with Earth's magnetosphere. This may lead to increased geomagnetic activity at very high latitudes. [link to www.solarham.net] Thanks NiN... The predictive models show the IMF should be North (+) now. NOAA and NASA seem to have dart-throwing chimps making their forecasts lately. By the way, whatever became of the 4 million MPH CME that supposed to slam us yesterday? At least the chimps work for bananas; the no-nothing Phd.'s are a festering, bottomless money pit. The Rise of the Chimps, Part II will continue after this commercial............. IMF 3-Day Model: [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov] More useless models here: [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov] Its VERY NICE to have you around again! Aaaaarrrrrggggge model is right! Last Edited by Thinking out loud on 09/02/2012 07:44 PM “One of the saddest lessons of history is this: If we’ve been bamboozled long enough, we tend to reject any evidence of the bamboozle. We’re no longer interested in finding out the truth. The bamboozle has captured us. It’s simply too painful to acknowledge, even to ourselves, that we’ve been taken. Once you give a charlatan power over you, you almost never get it back.” – Carl Sagan |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 2215477 United States 09/02/2012 07:58 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Just surprised AR1560 hasn't got BGD yet, maybe it will by the next update, sure looks it or close to it already. Quoting: whiteangel Needs the penumbra around the center bi polar umbrae Shad would you happen to have a shot of a true Delta configuration for comparison. I really want to know what what a penumbra looks like, because looking at the configuration on the left side of 1560, pos and neg encompassed by a single penumbra, at least what I believe to be a single penumbra. This is an image of a beta-gamma-delta, and I'm finding it hard to find the difference between this configuration (1520) and the current 1560 ??? [link to earthpurification.blogspot.com] |
nerdrage88sasr User ID: 23038949 Australia 09/02/2012 08:02 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | To resume the fantastic explanation of NiN: Quoting: PsycoCandy Added 9/2/2012 @ 20:20 UTC Southward Bz The Bz component of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) is currently tipped south and this could allow the solar wind to interact with Earth's magnetosphere. This may lead to increased geomagnetic activity at very high latitudes. [link to www.solarham.net] Thanks NiN... The predictive models show the IMF should be North (+) now. NOAA and NASA seem to have dart-throwing chimps making their forecasts lately. By the way, whatever became of the 4 million MPH CME that supposed to slam us yesterday? At least the chimps work for bananas; the no-nothing Phd.'s are a festering, bottomless money pit. The Rise of the Chimps, Part II will continue after this commercial............. IMF 3-Day Model: [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov] More useless models here: [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov] Heya Hugh! Headed out to the desert for a few days so im gonna miss some of the action, good to see you back here 'at work' Peace and stay safe all Nerd "Luck is what happens when preparation meets Oppurtunity"-- Seneca (5BC-65AD) |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 2215477 United States 09/02/2012 08:04 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | To resume the fantastic explanation of NiN: Quoting: PsycoCandy Added 9/2/2012 @ 20:20 UTC Southward Bz The Bz component of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) is currently tipped south and this could allow the solar wind to interact with Earth's magnetosphere. This may lead to increased geomagnetic activity at very high latitudes. [link to www.solarham.net] Thanks NiN... The predictive models show the IMF should be North (+) now. NOAA and NASA seem to have dart-throwing chimps making their forecasts lately. By the way, whatever became of the 4 million MPH CME that supposed to slam us yesterday? At least the chimps work for bananas; the no-nothing Phd.'s are a festering, bottomless money pit. The Rise of the Chimps, Part II will continue after this commercial............. IMF 3-Day Model: [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov] More useless models here: [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov] Heya Hugh! Headed out to the desert for a few days so im gonna miss some of the action, good to see you back here 'at work' Peace and stay safe all Nerd Enjoy the piece, safe travels Nerd |
shadasonic User ID: 15732022 United States 09/02/2012 08:04 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Just surprised AR1560 hasn't got BGD yet, maybe it will by the next update, sure looks it or close to it already. Quoting: whiteangel Needs the penumbra around the center bi polar umbrae Shad would you happen to have a shot of a true Delta configuration for comparison. I really want to know what what a penumbra looks like, because looking at the configuration on the left side of 1560, pos and neg encompassed by a single penumbra, at least what I believe to be a single penumbra. You know the penumbra was there this morning and had the two opposite polarities 'surrounded' but it receded ever so slightly. Should be able to find one for ya pretty quick. “One of the saddest lessons of history is this: If we’ve been bamboozled long enough, we tend to reject any evidence of the bamboozle. We’re no longer interested in finding out the truth. The bamboozle has captured us. It’s simply too painful to acknowledge, even to ourselves, that we’ve been taken. Once you give a charlatan power over you, you almost never get it back.” – Carl Sagan |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 2215477 United States 09/02/2012 08:08 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Just surprised AR1560 hasn't got BGD yet, maybe it will by the next update, sure looks it or close to it already. Quoting: whiteangel Needs the penumbra around the center bi polar umbrae Shad would you happen to have a shot of a true Delta configuration for comparison. I really want to know what what a penumbra looks like, because looking at the configuration on the left side of 1560, pos and neg encompassed by a single penumbra, at least what I believe to be a single penumbra. You know the penumbra was there this morning and had the two opposite polarities 'surrounded' but it receded ever so slightly. Should be able to find one for ya pretty quick. I found and just posted one above. Let me see if they can approve a smilie for me. |
AkivaJeff User ID: 19183578 United States 09/02/2012 08:12 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | To resume the fantastic explanation of NiN: Quoting: PsycoCandy Added 9/2/2012 @ 20:20 UTC Southward Bz The Bz component of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) is currently tipped south and this could allow the solar wind to interact with Earth's magnetosphere. This may lead to increased geomagnetic activity at very high latitudes. [link to www.solarham.net] Thanks NiN... The predictive models show the IMF should be North (+) now. NOAA and NASA seem to have dart-throwing chimps making their forecasts lately. By the way, whatever became of the 4 million MPH CME that supposed to slam us yesterday? At least the chimps work for bananas; the no-nothing Phd.'s are a festering, bottomless money pit. The Rise of the Chimps, Part II will continue after this commercial............. IMF 3-Day Model: [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov] More useless models here: [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov] Heya Hugh! Headed out to the desert for a few days so im gonna miss some of the action, good to see you back here 'at work' Peace and stay safe all Nerd Enjoy the piece, safe travels Nerd Freudian Slip? Life is short... But it's WIDE. |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 2215477 United States 09/02/2012 08:13 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | ... Quoting: Hugh M Eye The predictive models show the IMF should be North (+) now. NOAA and NASA seem to have dart-throwing chimps making their forecasts lately. By the way, whatever became of the 4 million MPH CME that supposed to slam us yesterday? At least the chimps work for bananas; the no-nothing Phd.'s are a festering, bottomless money pit. The Rise of the Chimps, Part II will continue after this commercial............. IMF 3-Day Model: [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov] More useless models here: [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov] Heya Hugh! Headed out to the desert for a few days so im gonna miss some of the action, good to see you back here 'at work' Peace and stay safe all Nerd Enjoy the piece, safe travels Nerd Freudian Slip? LMAO ... it's possible Although as you may have noticed, I HAVE TO go back an edit almost every fricken thing I post, and it's getting worse and worse !!! |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 2215477 United States 09/02/2012 08:17 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
madajs User ID: 6377684 Canada 09/02/2012 08:20 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Looks like we just reached a 4. Quoting: TS66 ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 Threshold Reached: 2012 Sep 02 2305 UTC Synoptic Period: 2100-2400 UTC Active Warning: Yes Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude. Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur. Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska. To add to this, the official kp index at potsdam showing a Kp 5 [link to www-app3.gfz-potsdam.de] DST staying around -30 [link to wdc.kugi.kyoto-u.ac.jp] definitely a storm going on right now, although still weak (for now) let's see if it picks up more in the next 24 hours! And always, he fought the temptation to choose a clear, safe course, warning: "That path leads ever down into stagnation." |
shenue User ID: 5263313 United States 09/02/2012 08:25 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Looks like we just reached a 4. Quoting: TS66 ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 Threshold Reached: 2012 Sep 02 2305 UTC Synoptic Period: 2100-2400 UTC Active Warning: Yes Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude. Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur. Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska. To add to this, the official kp index at potsdam showing a Kp 5 [link to www-app3.gfz-potsdam.de] DST staying around -30 [link to wdc.kugi.kyoto-u.ac.jp] definitely a storm going on right now, although still weak (for now) let's see if it picks up more in the next 24 hours! I believe this is the one where they get an average from around the world. [link to www.theusner.eu] Watch your thoughts; they become words. Watch your words; they become actions. Watch your actions; they become habits. Watch your habits; they become your character. Watch your character; it becomes your destiny. |
shadasonic User ID: 15732022 United States 09/02/2012 08:26 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Shad would you happen to have a shot of a true Delta configuration for comparison. I really want to know what what a penumbra looks like, because looking at the configuration on the left side of 1560, pos and neg encompassed by a single penumbra, at least what I believe to be a single penumbra. You know the penumbra was there this morning and had the two opposite polarities 'surrounded' but it receded ever so slightly. Should be able to find one for ya pretty quick. I found and just posted one above. Let me see if they can approve a smilie for me. [link to akshaydeoras.blogspot.com] Heres an example of the progression of a SS to BGD [link to www.spaceweatherlive.com] In the example here the penumbra is the grey area surrounding the bipolar spots [link to images.search.yahoo.com] Theres a load of them here,some are good, some aren't “One of the saddest lessons of history is this: If we’ve been bamboozled long enough, we tend to reject any evidence of the bamboozle. We’re no longer interested in finding out the truth. The bamboozle has captured us. It’s simply too painful to acknowledge, even to ourselves, that we’ve been taken. Once you give a charlatan power over you, you almost never get it back.” – Carl Sagan |
shadasonic User ID: 15732022 United States 09/02/2012 08:35 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | That was quick, thanks mods Quoting: TS66 Ok Shada, please tell me, because I hate not understanding this, why the area I have circled is not a BGD. TIA :penumbra3: Well in my eyes that is BGD, you've got both polarities, no discernible division between them and the penumbra has enclosed the umbrae= BGD “One of the saddest lessons of history is this: If we’ve been bamboozled long enough, we tend to reject any evidence of the bamboozle. We’re no longer interested in finding out the truth. The bamboozle has captured us. It’s simply too painful to acknowledge, even to ourselves, that we’ve been taken. Once you give a charlatan power over you, you almost never get it back.” – Carl Sagan |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 2215477 United States 09/02/2012 08:35 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | ... Quoting: TS66 Shad would you happen to have a shot of a true Delta configuration for comparison. I really want to know what what a penumbra looks like, because looking at the configuration on the left side of 1560, pos and neg encompassed by a single penumbra, at least what I believe to be a single penumbra. You know the penumbra was there this morning and had the two opposite polarities 'surrounded' but it receded ever so slightly. Should be able to find one for ya pretty quick. I found and just posted one above. Let me see if they can approve a smilie for me. [link to akshaydeoras.blogspot.com] Heres an example of the progression of a SS to BGD [link to www.spaceweatherlive.com] In the example here the penumbra is the grey area surrounding the bipolar spots [link to images.search.yahoo.com] Theres a load of them here,some are good, some aren't Thanks, I'm pretty sure I understand the classifications, separately and collectively of Beta-Gamma-Delta, but isn't that what is happening in my last smilie (ps lastest shot from SDO), the area that is circled ??? What's missing ? |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 2215477 United States 09/02/2012 08:36 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | That was quick, thanks mods Quoting: TS66 Ok Shada, please tell me, because I hate not understanding this, why the area I have circled is not a BGD. TIA :penumbra3: Well in my eyes that is BGD, you've got both polarities, no discernible division between them and the penumbra has enclosed the umbrae= BGD Exactly, that's the latest shot from SDO ... OK so now at least I feel like I have a clue, and 1560 is a BGD, thank you so much Shada |
shadasonic User ID: 15732022 United States 09/02/2012 08:41 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | That was quick, thanks mods Quoting: TS66 Ok Shada, please tell me, because I hate not understanding this, why the area I have circled is not a BGD. TIA :penumbra3: Well in my eyes that is BGD, you've got both polarities, no discernible division between them and the penumbra has enclosed the umbrae= BGD Exactly, that's the latest shot from SDO ... OK so now at least I feel like I have a clue, and 1560 is a BGD, thank you so much Shada Yeah looking at it that close seems cut and dried, good pic and good investigating! “One of the saddest lessons of history is this: If we’ve been bamboozled long enough, we tend to reject any evidence of the bamboozle. We’re no longer interested in finding out the truth. The bamboozle has captured us. It’s simply too painful to acknowledge, even to ourselves, that we’ve been taken. Once you give a charlatan power over you, you almost never get it back.” – Carl Sagan |