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Message Subject
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SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
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Anonymous Coward |
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Post Content
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Yeah, what we have been talking about, it's just a very strong wind from a large coronal hole becoming increasingly geoeffective, had me going for a while trying to figure out if I missed something.
Quoting: SpiderJones They show CH winds on the Enlil model? That's my question, I've never seen it before. Yeah, Enlil models the solar wind streams (the spirals you can see imaged). You can see on the model how the spiral hitting us on the 22nd is far more dense than usual. Thus the spike in forecasted readings for that time. Also, the catch-all Enlil model is currently displaying one of those far side CME's. Looks pretty fast. [ link to iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080] Please indulge me and understand my confusion. We are most effected by the solar winds, density, and temp of a Coronal Hole as it faces earth, a direct influence so to speak. This spiral has been spinning for, and it's hit has been predicted by the Enlil model for at least 5 days, and without the Enlil models available prior to the 17th, we have no date of origin !!! So that would mean that this solar wind originated from a random CH as early as the 14th, 15th, or 16th ??? It just doesn't make sense. That is not typical of any Coronal Hole Solar Wind I have ever seen. If CH536 earth facing at this moment were to send solar winds right now they would be felt within 24 hours, not 6 or 7 days from now.
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