SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily) | |
Hugh M Eye User ID: 22914370 United States 09/20/2012 09:26 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | This would explain yesterdays Kp4 according to the US Commerce Dept. Quoting: TS66 IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was at predominately quiet to unsettled levels with a period of active conditions observed between 19/2100 - 2400Z. The period began with wind speeds, as measured at the ACE spacecraft, steady at 400 km/s while the Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) was mostly south at about -10 nT. At about 19/2300Z, wind speed and temperature indicated slight increases while IMF Bz began fluctuating between +8 to -6 nT. By about 20/0100Z, the phi angle changed from a positive (away) to a negative (toward) orientation. These changes were all indicative of a co-rotating interaction region in advance of a coronal hole high speed stream. By the end of the period, wind velocities were steady at about 575 km/s while IMF Bz did not vary much beyond +/- 2 nT. I'm sure you remember this from the 16th....from the Spaceweather.com TimeMachine. If you scroll down to the coronal hole diagram on the left margin, you can see the position of 3 coronal holes spread apart by latitude and longitude. They don't always line up neatly with the Parker Spiral streams and the ambient SW, hence the "co-rotating interaction regions" (CIRS). [link to www.spaceweather.com] More on CIRS: [link to www.physics.usyd.edu.au] [link to ase.tufts.edu] |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 24058416 United States 09/20/2012 09:43 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | ... Quoting: TS66 Please indulge me and understand my confusion. We are most effected by the solar winds, density, and temp of a Coronal Hole as it faces earth, a direct influence so to speak. This spiral has been spinning for, and it's hit has been predicted by the Enlil model for at least 5 days, and without the Enlil models available prior to the 17th, we have no date of origin !!! So that would mean that this solar wind originated from a random CH as early as the 14th, 15th, or 16th ??? It just doesn't make sense. That is not typical of any Coronal Hole Solar Wind I have ever seen. If CH536 earth facing at this moment were to send solar winds right now they would be felt within 24 hours, not 6 or 7 days from now. :) Hey TS. I'm not sure I follow you. The stream that will hit us on the 22nd originates from the CH that is currently earth facing. Enlil offers us both a chart of the expected density as well as an animation showing the stream's approach to Earth. But the animation of density, wind and tempt that will hit on the 22nd begins and is shown on the 17th in the model. They cannot predict a hit of something specific that has not happened yet. Correct me if I misunderstand, I'm still not 100% sure if we're on the same page. What I see is, the dense stream from this CH "spiralling" towards earth as the Sun rotates it towards us. The model, which begins 9-16 12:00, shows that the CH was already emitting a strong stream well before it came around to face earth directly. So it's not that it shot out a burst on the 16th that took until the 22nd to arrive. It's that it's been gushing nonstop since at least the 16th, and was still gushing when it became earth facing, so on the 22nd we're gonna get wet. :) This would explain yesterdays Kp4 according to the US Commerce Dept. Quoting: TS66 IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was at predominately quiet to unsettled levels with a period of active conditions observed between 19/2100 - 2400Z. The period began with wind speeds, as measured at the ACE spacecraft, steady at 400 km/s while the Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) was mostly south at about -10 nT. At about 19/2300Z, wind speed and temperature indicated slight increases while IMF Bz began fluctuating between +8 to -6 nT. By about 20/0100Z, the phi angle changed from a positive (away) to a negative (toward) orientation. These changes were all indicative of a co-rotating interaction region in advance of a coronal hole high speed stream. By the end of the period, wind velocities were steady at about 575 km/s while IMF Bz did not vary much beyond +/- 2 nT. I'm sure you remember this from the 16th....from the Spaceweather.com TimeMachine. If you scroll down to the coronal hole diagram on the left margin, you can see the position of 3 coronal holes spread apart by latitude and longitude. They don't always line up neatly with the Parker Spiral streams and the ambient SW, hence the "co-rotating interaction regions" (CIRS). [link to www.spaceweather.com] More on CIRS: [link to www.physics.usyd.edu.au] [link to ase.tufts.edu] Thank you both, you are correct. Madjas thanks for your patience with me ... and your explanation. I'm loving that time machine, thanks Hugh, I didn't even knew it existed. Bookmarking it as I type. |
shadasonic User ID: 15732022 United States 09/20/2012 09:57 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | ... Quoting: madajs :) Hey TS. I'm not sure I follow you. The stream that will hit us on the 22nd originates from the CH that is currently earth facing. Enlil offers us both a chart of the expected density as well as an animation showing the stream's approach to Earth. But the animation of density, wind and tempt that will hit on the 22nd begins and is shown on the 17th in the model. They cannot predict a hit of something specific that has not happened yet. Correct me if I misunderstand, I'm still not 100% sure if we're on the same page. What I see is, the dense stream from this CH "spiralling" towards earth as the Sun rotates it towards us. The model, which begins 9-16 12:00, shows that the CH was already emitting a strong stream well before it came around to face earth directly. So it's not that it shot out a burst on the 16th that took until the 22nd to arrive. It's that it's been gushing nonstop since at least the 16th, and was still gushing when it became earth facing, so on the 22nd we're gonna get wet. :) This would explain yesterdays Kp4 according to the US Commerce Dept. Quoting: TS66 IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was at predominately quiet to unsettled levels with a period of active conditions observed between 19/2100 - 2400Z. The period began with wind speeds, as measured at the ACE spacecraft, steady at 400 km/s while the Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) was mostly south at about -10 nT. At about 19/2300Z, wind speed and temperature indicated slight increases while IMF Bz began fluctuating between +8 to -6 nT. By about 20/0100Z, the phi angle changed from a positive (away) to a negative (toward) orientation. These changes were all indicative of a co-rotating interaction region in advance of a coronal hole high speed stream. By the end of the period, wind velocities were steady at about 575 km/s while IMF Bz did not vary much beyond +/- 2 nT. I'm sure you remember this from the 16th....from the Spaceweather.com TimeMachine. If you scroll down to the coronal hole diagram on the left margin, you can see the position of 3 coronal holes spread apart by latitude and longitude. They don't always line up neatly with the Parker Spiral streams and the ambient SW, hence the "co-rotating interaction regions" (CIRS). [link to www.spaceweather.com] More on CIRS: [link to www.physics.usyd.edu.au] [link to ase.tufts.edu] Thank you both, you are correct. Madjas thanks for your patience with me ... and your explanation. I'm loving that time machine, thanks Hugh, I didn't even knew it existed. Bookmarking it as I type. Thanks from me also, as I hadn't kept up well enough and was confused also. I do remember Hugh posting about the 3 CHs,and should have went back and checked, my initial glance was the 22nd didn't make sense , now it does! thanks for keeping my flighty mind in line! “One of the saddest lessons of history is this: If we’ve been bamboozled long enough, we tend to reject any evidence of the bamboozle. We’re no longer interested in finding out the truth. The bamboozle has captured us. It’s simply too painful to acknowledge, even to ourselves, that we’ve been taken. Once you give a charlatan power over you, you almost never get it back.” – Carl Sagan |
shenue User ID: 5263313 United States 09/20/2012 10:08 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Good night. Peace to all of you! Watch your thoughts; they become words. Watch your words; they become actions. Watch your actions; they become habits. Watch your habits; they become your character. Watch your character; it becomes your destiny. |
AkivaJeff User ID: 19183578 United States 09/20/2012 10:09 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | ... Quoting: TS66 But the animation of density, wind and tempt that will hit on the 22nd begins and is shown on the 17th in the model. They cannot predict a hit of something specific that has not happened yet. Correct me if I misunderstand, I'm still not 100% sure if we're on the same page. What I see is, the dense stream from this CH "spiralling" towards earth as the Sun rotates it towards us. The model, which begins 9-16 12:00, shows that the CH was already emitting a strong stream well before it came around to face earth directly. So it's not that it shot out a burst on the 16th that took until the 22nd to arrive. It's that it's been gushing nonstop since at least the 16th, and was still gushing when it became earth facing, so on the 22nd we're gonna get wet. :) This would explain yesterdays Kp4 according to the US Commerce Dept. Quoting: TS66 IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was at predominately quiet to unsettled levels with a period of active conditions observed between 19/2100 - 2400Z. The period began with wind speeds, as measured at the ACE spacecraft, steady at 400 km/s while the Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) was mostly south at about -10 nT. At about 19/2300Z, wind speed and temperature indicated slight increases while IMF Bz began fluctuating between +8 to -6 nT. By about 20/0100Z, the phi angle changed from a positive (away) to a negative (toward) orientation. These changes were all indicative of a co-rotating interaction region in advance of a coronal hole high speed stream. By the end of the period, wind velocities were steady at about 575 km/s while IMF Bz did not vary much beyond +/- 2 nT. I'm sure you remember this from the 16th....from the Spaceweather.com TimeMachine. If you scroll down to the coronal hole diagram on the left margin, you can see the position of 3 coronal holes spread apart by latitude and longitude. They don't always line up neatly with the Parker Spiral streams and the ambient SW, hence the "co-rotating interaction regions" (CIRS). [link to www.spaceweather.com] More on CIRS: [link to www.physics.usyd.edu.au] [link to ase.tufts.edu] Thank you both, you are correct. Madjas thanks for your patience with me ... and your explanation. I'm loving that time machine, thanks Hugh, I didn't even knew it existed. Bookmarking it as I type. Thanks from me also, as I hadn't kept up well enough and was confused also. I do remember Hugh posting about the 3 CHs,and should have went back and checked, my initial glance was the 22nd didn't make sense , now it does! thanks for keeping my flighty mind in line! Thanks for all of your input. I finally got it, as well. I was confused because of the reports of 3 seperate CMEs but none heading this way. There were no real reports of a steady (but powerful) stream that has been ongoing. It looks pretty potent on enlil. Thanks again. Life is short... But it's WIDE. |
Hugh M Eye User ID: 22914370 United States 09/20/2012 10:58 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Anyway, back on December 28, 2011 I bookmarked this site for future reference. It's called CEDAR-WIKI and I believe it may be the "Holy Grail" portal for much of the mythical "hidden data". Some of the data links require you to register (which I haven't done yet) and a lot of stuff here is over my head; but someone out in GLP-land may have the time and wherewithal to navigate the belly of this beast, so I'm putting it out there. CEDAR-Wiki Main Page: [link to cedarweb.hao.ucar.edu] First off, CEDAR stands for Coupling, Energetics and Dynamics of Atmospheric Regions and is part of the GLOBAL CHANGE Program of the National Science Foundation. This web-portal seems to have access to data sites known only to "insiders" of the Scientific/University/Military-Industrial complex. Here's a list of their ground-based instruments: [link to cedarweb.hao.ucar.edu] And data services instruments: [link to cedarweb.hao.ucar.edu] I know...it's mind boggling. Of general interest to the viewers of this thread, I found a link here for the MIT Space Plasma Group (no, it's not a punk rock band): [link to web.mit.edu] And I never knew that MIT has up-to-date data on the solar wind (!) from the VOYAGER space probes (last update Sept. 9, 2012!): [link to web.mit.edu] Let me know what kind of data goodies you all can find here--it looks like a bottomless pit from here, LOL. Last Edited by Hugh M Eye on 09/20/2012 11:03 PM |
Solar Guardian User ID: 24151531 Malaysia 09/20/2012 11:02 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | I could have sworn that SOHO said that nothing is heading our way. This begs to disagree. Interesting how density goes up on the chart for the 22nd, with nothing visible? That 22nd date again? Like Nin said a page back they give us 1 to 5% of their info. There has been nothing on the deterioration of ss earthside then going ballistic like 1564 has. This has happened time and time again, but I guarantee you they have an idea,its probably not good.The same reason they won't tell us why they've chemtrailed so hard today I literally can't see the sun, massive trails, its almost like you can feel it on you when you're out.It was supposed to be a completely clear day, how can people not see these things,or question them.@#$@%^&#@*(&%$#@@, now i've went and pissed myself off!!!!!!!!!!! LOL Maybe the threads below have answers? Thread: 23rd september magnetic storm Thread: I just got the call; MAJOR Energy event + Blackout ~ 9/22 |
NiNzrez User ID: 12844841 United States 09/20/2012 11:30 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | I've managed to accumulate over 600 links for solar-related data, reports, press releases, papers, etc. This also includes magnetosphere-related stuff and other outer-space goodies. At this point, it's almost unmanageable, haha. Anyway, I occasionally see a link that I don't remember anything about so I click on it to what was about. Quoting: Hugh M Eye Anyway, back on December 28, 2011 I bookmarked this site for future reference. It's called CEDAR-WIKI and I believe it may be the "Holy Grail" portal for much of the mythical "hidden data". Some of the data links require you to register (which I haven't done yet) and a lot of stuff here is over my head; but someone out in GLP-land may have the time and wherewithal to navigate the belly of this beast, so I'm putting it out there. CEDAR-Wiki Main Page: [link to cedarweb.hao.ucar.edu] First off, CEDAR stands for Coupling, Energetics and Dynamics of Atmospheric Regions and is part of the GLOBAL CHANGE Program of the National Science Foundation. This web-portal seems to have access to data sites known only to "insiders" of the Scientific/University/Military-Industrial complex. Here's a list of their ground-based instruments: [link to cedarweb.hao.ucar.edu] And data services instruments: [link to cedarweb.hao.ucar.edu] I know...it's mind boggling. Of general interest to the viewers of this thread, I found a link here for the MIT Space Plasma Group (no, it's not a punk rock band): [link to web.mit.edu] And I never knew that MIT has up-to-date data on the solar wind (!) from the VOYAGER space probes (last update Sept. 9, 2012!): [link to web.mit.edu] Let me know what kind of data goodies you all can find here--it looks like a bottomless pit from here, LOL. its a never ending bottomless pit! i cant even begin to count how many saved links i have that all how important info i refer back onto all the time i need to find some sort of "fave link organizer app" for my oc haha ohhh man can you imagine how popular that would be if someone designed it?!?!?! |
NiNzrez User ID: 12844841 United States 09/20/2012 11:33 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | I've managed to accumulate over 600 links for solar-related data, reports, press releases, papers, etc. This also includes magnetosphere-related stuff and other outer-space goodies. At this point, it's almost unmanageable, haha. Anyway, I occasionally see a link that I don't remember anything about so I click on it to what was about. Quoting: Hugh M Eye Anyway, back on December 28, 2011 I bookmarked this site for future reference. It's called CEDAR-WIKI and I believe it may be the "Holy Grail" portal for much of the mythical "hidden data". Some of the data links require you to register (which I haven't done yet) and a lot of stuff here is over my head; but someone out in GLP-land may have the time and wherewithal to navigate the belly of this beast, so I'm putting it out there. CEDAR-Wiki Main Page: [link to cedarweb.hao.ucar.edu] First off, CEDAR stands for Coupling, Energetics and Dynamics of Atmospheric Regions and is part of the GLOBAL CHANGE Program of the National Science Foundation. This web-portal seems to have access to data sites known only to "insiders" of the Scientific/University/Military-Industrial complex. Here's a list of their ground-based instruments: [link to cedarweb.hao.ucar.edu] And data services instruments: [link to cedarweb.hao.ucar.edu] I know...it's mind boggling. Of general interest to the viewers of this thread, I found a link here for the MIT Space Plasma Group (no, it's not a punk rock band): [link to web.mit.edu] And I never knew that MIT has up-to-date data on the solar wind (!) from the VOYAGER space probes (last update Sept. 9, 2012!): [link to web.mit.edu] Let me know what kind of data goodies you all can find here--it looks like a bottomless pit from here, LOL. its a never ending bottomless pit! i cant even begin to count how many saved links i have that all how important info i refer back onto all the time i need to find some sort of "fave link organizer app" for my oc haha ohhh man can you imagine how popular that would be if someone designed it?!?!?! and see what happens when i dont log in! i cant even edit all my damn typos from typing in the dark i am SO glad this thread is casual enough to not get killed from spelling nazis now ^^ |
madajs User ID: 6377684 Canada 09/20/2012 11:44 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Thank you both, you are correct. Quoting: TS66 Madjas thanks for your patience with me ... and your explanation. I'm loving that time machine, thanks Hugh, I didn't even knew it existed. Bookmarking it as I type. Thanks from me also, as I hadn't kept up well enough and was confused also. I do remember Hugh posting about the 3 CHs,and should have went back and checked, my initial glance was the 22nd didn't make sense , now it does! thanks for keeping my flighty mind in line! Thanks for all of your input. I finally got it, as well. I was confused because of the reports of 3 seperate CMEs but none heading this way. There were no real reports of a steady (but powerful) stream that has been ongoing. It looks pretty potent on enlil. Thanks again. If the lesser streams got us up to nearly Kp 5, let's see what this bigger one can do on the equinox. Edited out the second part of this post after realizing there were some base errors in it... Last Edited by madajs on 09/20/2012 11:54 PM And always, he fought the temptation to choose a clear, safe course, warning: "That path leads ever down into stagnation." |
<+MarketSellOff+> User ID: 1426914 United States 09/21/2012 12:08 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Hopefully this solar wind that's expected to come reaches a KP-7+. Wishful thinking though. |
Solar Guardian User ID: 24158545 Malaysia 09/21/2012 12:22 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Hopefully this solar wind that's expected to come reaches a KP-7+. Wishful thinking though. Quoting: <+MarketSellOff+> May reach above KP-8, if lots of plasma from the interstellar plasma cloud outside of the Sun's heliosphere has already reached significant levels in the inner planetary environment. I asked Hagel and Valugua about this CH stream, but they told me that more plasma would only stream into our inner solar system after the solar system fully enters the denser regions of the Plasma Cloud in October 2012, after the heliosphere shrinks to within 8-10 AUs away from the Sun sometime in mid-October 2012. Therefore, based on info given to me by online Extraterrestrial contacts, it is not expected for us to have massive electricity grid breakdowns due to CME doom until mid to late October 2012. Last Edited by Solar Guardian on 09/21/2012 12:24 AM |
Hugh M Eye User ID: 22914370 United States 09/21/2012 12:34 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Hey, I just saw a bolide a/k/a fireball shooting from near Cassiopeia towards the NW. It was a bright bluish white one. Pretty cool. I actually filed a report with the American Meteor Society. I've seen a lot of meteors before but didn't know where to report them. Here's a link to bookmark for future reference of meteor showers and how to report sightings: [link to amsmeteors.org] Meteor Live Detection feed: [link to www.meteorscan.com] Meteor Radar Audio feed: [link to topaz.streamguys.tv] Last Edited by Hugh M Eye on 09/21/2012 12:41 AM |
C3Music User ID: 1534352 United States 09/21/2012 01:31 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
Solar Guardian User ID: 24158545 Malaysia 09/21/2012 01:32 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 9968554 United States 09/21/2012 01:44 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
madajs User ID: 6377684 Canada 09/21/2012 01:56 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | We need the Solar Doom like yesterday. I believe the only things that is going to save us from ourselves (current events and what they are leading up to) is Solar Doom to knock out the power around the globe. I know I have said this before, numerous times, and many think I am crazy for wanting it but I tell you it would be a savior. Quoting: Anonymous Coward 9968554 The way TPTB has deliberately set up society as a gigantic electromagnetic house of cards, I think they want it to happen too. You know TPTB, never ones to waste a crisis. And always, he fought the temptation to choose a clear, safe course, warning: "That path leads ever down into stagnation." |
Solar Guardian User ID: 24158545 Malaysia 09/21/2012 02:15 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Can anyone pin this shitz? |
SnakeBite User ID: 20003075 Canada 09/21/2012 02:26 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 21205062 United States 09/21/2012 02:28 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 24150747 Portugal 09/21/2012 02:31 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
Solar Guardian User ID: 24158545 Malaysia 09/21/2012 02:35 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | I don't think there will be any major problems to the power grids worldwide this month. That would only happen from October 2012, according to info I stated above. If it happens now or the days ahead, we have to kiss the Internet goodbye.... Last Edited by Solar Guardian on 09/21/2012 02:35 AM |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 24150747 Portugal 09/21/2012 02:43 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | I don't think there will be any major problems to the power grids worldwide this month. That would only happen from October 2012, according to info I stated above. If it happens now or the days ahead, we have to kiss the Internet goodbye.... Quoting: Solar Guardian was thinkin about that just now.... and Planes.... and Satelites.... serious doom arrivin ladys and Gentleman |
<+MarketSellOff+> User ID: 1426914 United States 09/21/2012 04:01 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 24144655 Germany 09/21/2012 05:36 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | I guess you noticed it also We have another huge eruption on the farside.. This time on the farside west [link to www.youtube.com] Stereo Ahead C2: [link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov] Stereo Ahead EUVI: [link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov] Blog will be updated soon :) Nice Scandinavian aurora from the last night(s) [link to tomeklund.kuvat.fi] and nice Video by Helge Mortensen: [link to vimeo.com] dark enough now! |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 24058416 United States 09/21/2012 06:53 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | According to Solen: [link to www.solen.info] New region S1928 [N02E14] emerged in the easternmost part of a large filament (the filament we have been watching). This development could cause the filament to become unstable and erupt. In addition, The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on September 21-22 due to weak effects from CH536. Guess we'll have to wait and see . |
Tiny Trink User ID: 24169056 United States 09/21/2012 07:26 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
shenue User ID: 5263313 United States 09/21/2012 07:26 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Good Morning everyone. Have to get caught up here from last night. Watch your thoughts; they become words. Watch your words; they become actions. Watch your actions; they become habits. Watch your habits; they become your character. Watch your character; it becomes your destiny. |
Solar Guardian User ID: 24168410 Malaysia 09/21/2012 07:31 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Here in Malaysia is nightime. Good Night. |
El Quisqueyano User ID: 23937718 United States 09/21/2012 07:58 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | I guess you noticed it also Quoting: IwantToBelieve76 We have another huge eruption on the farside.. This time on the farside west [link to www.youtube.com] Stereo Ahead C2: [link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov] Stereo Ahead EUVI: [link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov] Blog will be updated soon :) Nice Scandinavian aurora from the last night(s) [link to tomeklund.kuvat.fi] and nice Video by Helge Mortensen: [link to vimeo.com] dark enough now! That's gonna be facing us soon. |