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SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
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Anonymous Coward |
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I'm surprised and disappointed that CACTus and SEEDS have no updated CME analysis available after all this time. However SIDC forecasts CME arrival for the 29th. So we have 3 vastly different predictions for the same CME just like last time. Here's what SIDC has to say: COMMENT: A C3.7 flare occurred in the vicinity of NOAA AR 1577 on Sept. 27, 2336 UT (peak time). It triggered both a weak proton event (>10 Mev protons) whose level is near the threshold of 10 pfu at the moment, and a fully developed halo CME as observed with LASCO C2 data. The expansion speed estimated from this instrument ranges from about 700 to 1000 km/s.At the moment, only partial observations of the CME are available from the COR2 instruments onboard STEREO, allowing only a crude speed estimate of about 1300 km/s. On-disk signatures of a coronal EUV waves extending to the East of the region, nearly up to the central meridian, together with the halo nature of the CME, suggest this event will be geoeffective with a risk for minor storm conditions or greater by midday on Sept. 29. [ link to sidc.oma.be] I believe the first NASA prediction was way off, hence their updated prediction. I can't fathom why they leave the old predictions up on the iSWA CME alerts page. The CME can be seen in all its glory at the SOHO movie-maker page. Check the last 24 images for C3 and 34 images for the C2 imager. [ link to sohodata.nascom.nasa.gov] Quoting: Hugh M Eye The sun is approximately 93 million miles away , so .... At 1000km/sec is 2,236,936 mph = 40 hrs which will mean the CME will arrive at 16:00 UTC on the 30th (12 pm EST) At 700km/sec is 1,565,855 mph = 60hrs which will mean the CME will arrive at 12:00 UTC Oct 1st (8 am EST) And anywhere there between. Other than the fact we had an X and many many M flares this time last year, seems we have the same anticipatory excitement with these two, don't you think Hugh ? I'm really starting to believe that we seem to hit the sun's "sweet spot" at this time of year.
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