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SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)

 
Anonymous Coward
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09/28/2012 12:45 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
Because every nut out there will be in here trolling and shilling the thread!!! This isn't solar doom and we don't need them cluttering things up to make it more difficult to share info
 Quoting: whiteangel


its not doommm


its fuck**** real right?


its dimensionaly big



no one can predict the results yes?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 24568989


We won't know the true potential until almost 20 minutes before it hits Earth when the satellites are hit and send us their data, and only then if NASA doesn't shut them down in order to protect them (they've done it in the past).
 Quoting: TS66


ty TS....
shenue

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09/28/2012 12:46 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
Hi All ~

Did any of you get a screen shot of the radar last night when the big CME let loose?

The radar has been changed it appears.

This is the current radar.

[link to iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov]

Thank you.

Tiny Trink
 Quoting: Tiny Trink


Hmmm what the heck? Up until about 1/2 hr ago, it showed the big CME heading our way. Ok why has it changed? What don't I understand here?

Thanks

Edit: As a matter of fact, I still have another window open that is still running the one showing the CME heading for us. Now I'm quite confused. There is something that I'm just not understanding. What is it?

Last Edited by shenue on 09/28/2012 12:50 PM
Watch your thoughts; they become words. Watch your words; they become actions. Watch your actions; they become habits. Watch your habits; they become your character. Watch your character; it becomes your destiny.
Anonymous Coward
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09/28/2012 12:46 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
Hi All ~

Did any of you get a screen shot of the radar last night when the big CME let loose?

The radar has been changed it appears.

This is the current radar.

[link to iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov]

Thank you.

Tiny Trink
 Quoting: Tiny Trink


WTH ???

Nice catch Trink ....
Anonymous Coward
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09/28/2012 12:47 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
Because every nut out there will be in here trolling and shilling the thread!!! This isn't solar doom and we don't need them cluttering things up to make it more difficult to share info
 Quoting: whiteangel


its not doommm


its fuck**** real right?


its dimensionaly big



no one can predict the results yes?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 24568989


If I have this right, think of it like this:
Our magnetosphere is a brick wall. The CME is a Mack truck. At 10 miles an hour, the truck hits the brick wall and little damage is done, maybe a little paint transfer. At 100 mph the brick wall becomes dust to just blow in the wind. This incoming CME is a pickup truck coming in at about 60 mph. If I have this wrong, please advise

Pretty lights, maybe a power outage or two that will never be linked to a solar storm, a few quakes.

For me, that this will happen during a full moon, how much bigger will the quakes be?
 Quoting: whiteangel


ty white Angel


welll if the dimensions of the earthquakes are like the hallo dimension...


we have hiper-ship upon us yhee?
SnakeBite

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09/28/2012 12:48 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
Hi All ~

Did any of you get a screen shot of the radar last night when the big CME let loose?

The radar has been changed it appears.

This is the current radar.

[link to iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov]

Thank you.

Tiny Trink
 Quoting: Tiny Trink


WTH ???

Nice catch Trink ....
 Quoting: TS66

MaybeTHATStheMODELforTHEsecondCME?
whiteangel
also known at WA

User ID: 1775746
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09/28/2012 12:48 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
Hi All ~

Did any of you get a screen shot of the radar last night when the big CME let loose?

The radar has been changed it appears.

This is the current radar.

[link to iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov]

Thank you.

Tiny Trink
 Quoting: Tiny Trink


WTH ???

Nice catch Trink ....
 Quoting: TS66


I still have an old screen showing which hasn't changed. I will screen shot it and put it up, I am just slow at this.
Isaiah 5:20 KJV
Woe unto them that call evil good, and good evil; that put darkness for light, and light for darkness; that put bitter for sweet, and sweet for bitter!
Thread: Being Prepared - Updated Basic Food List On Page One
SnakeBite

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09/28/2012 12:49 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
MORNINGsolarCREW!!HOPEyouALLhaveAwonderfulDAY!
RI McGuillicutty

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09/28/2012 12:49 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
Posted 3 min ago by Solarham on FB..

[link to www.facebook.com (secure)]
"A person is smart. People are dumb, panicky dangerous animals and you know it. Fifteen hundred years ago everybody knew the Earth was the center of the universe. Five hundred years ago, everybody knew the Earth was flat, and fifteen minutes ago, you knew that humans were alone on this planet. Imagine what you'll know tomorrow."
Tiny Trink

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09/28/2012 12:49 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
Hi All ~ hi

I am trying to keep Shada's thread alive however I am not as versed as all of you. Now that the CME has been removed can you come over and help on his thread?

I am trying to move things that Hugh is posting over there.

Thread: A BIG ONE ON THE WAY

Much Love,

Tiny Trink
Tiny Trink, Double T, Tink Tink, T x 2

"You are responsible for the Energy you bring into a space" ~ Dr. Jill Bolte Taylor

Shine Brightly as someone is needing your Inner Light to find theirs.
Anonymous Coward
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09/28/2012 12:50 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
Hi All ~

Did any of you get a screen shot of the radar last night when the big CME let loose?

The radar has been changed it appears.

This is the current radar.

[link to iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov]

Thank you.

Tiny Trink
 Quoting: Tiny Trink


WTH ???

Nice catch Trink ....
 Quoting: TS66

MaybeTHATStheMODELforTHEsecondCME?
 Quoting: SnakeBite


They should BOTH be on there, it's the same time frame .... they best be having issues with the program, because that it is blatant mis-info !!!!

Hear that NASA redface???!!!
mistersplinter

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09/28/2012 12:52 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
[link to i1165.photobucket.com]

screencap showing impact
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." -- Albert Einstein
Anonymous Coward
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09/28/2012 12:54 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
[link to i1165.photobucket.com]

screencap showing impact
 Quoting: mistersplinter



Splinter ... you are the man !!! hf
SnakeBite

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09/28/2012 12:55 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
HUGHgetONyourSTATIONSandHELPmeUNDERSTANDwhatISgoingONhereWITH​theNOWmissingCME,ANDstillNOTHIIINGatALLfromENLILuuuuugh
mistersplinter

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09/28/2012 12:55 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
[link to i1165.photobucket.com]

screencap showing impact
 Quoting: mistersplinter



Splinter ... you are the man !!! hf
 Quoting: TS66


I's just a screencappin' fool

rockon
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." -- Albert Einstein
NiNzrez
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09/28/2012 12:56 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
More NASA cone models:

Dynamic Pressure (looks bad near Earth):

[link to iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080]

Density:

[link to iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080]

Velocity:

[link to iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080]

NASA has again changed their prediction for arrival time (this the 3rd so far). Of course they keep all 3 three posted on the alert cygnet so they'll be right no matter when it hits, haha.

Event Issue Date: 2012-09-28 10:28:53.0 GMT
CME Arrival Time: 2012-09-29 22:47:45.0 GMT
Arival Time Confidence Level: ± 6 hours
Disturbance Duration: 8 hours
Disturbance Duration Confidence Level: ± 8 hours
Magnetopause Standoff Distance: 4.6 Re


[link to iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080]
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


after going over data this morning, i would have to say i agree more with this arrival time than any other. sometime mid to lat day UTC time on Sept 29th
whiteangel
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09/28/2012 12:56 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
[link to s1240.photobucket.com]

[link to s1240.photobucket.com]
Isaiah 5:20 KJV
Woe unto them that call evil good, and good evil; that put darkness for light, and light for darkness; that put bitter for sweet, and sweet for bitter!
Thread: Being Prepared - Updated Basic Food List On Page One
madajs

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09/28/2012 12:56 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
Hi All ~

Did any of you get a screen shot of the radar last night when the big CME let loose?

The radar has been changed it appears.

This is the current radar.

[link to iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov]

Thank you.

Tiny Trink
 Quoting: Tiny Trink


WTH ???

Nice catch Trink ....
 Quoting: TS66

MaybeTHATStheMODELforTHEsecondCME?
 Quoting: SnakeBite


They should BOTH be on there, it's the same time frame .... they best be having issues with the program, because that it is blatant mis-info !!!!

Hear that NASA redface???!!!
 Quoting: TS66

Haha, this is the way that model has always worked in my experience. That model updates whenever there is a new CME, it doesn't care if the previous one was a gigantic full halo CME and the new one is a runt, out with the old and in with the new.

I saved the simulation hours ago because I knew this would happen. Still waiting on the geoeffective model to update...
And always, he fought the temptation to choose a clear, safe course, warning: "That path leads ever down into stagnation."
Anonymous Coward
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09/28/2012 12:57 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)


You guys are awesome !!!
Tiny Trink

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09/28/2012 12:58 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
[link to i1165.photobucket.com]

screencap showing impact
 Quoting: mistersplinter


Splinter you are awesome!!!

Thank you Thank you Thank You!!

hugs
Tiny Trink, Double T, Tink Tink, T x 2

"You are responsible for the Energy you bring into a space" ~ Dr. Jill Bolte Taylor

Shine Brightly as someone is needing your Inner Light to find theirs.
MamaHasAwakened

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09/28/2012 12:58 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
[link to i1165.photobucket.com]

screencap showing impact
 Quoting: mistersplinter



Splinter ... you are the man !!! hf
 Quoting: TS66


I's just a screencappin' fool

rockon
 Quoting: mistersplinter


We like those!!

applause2
Anonymous Coward
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09/28/2012 12:59 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
Posted 3 min ago by Solarham on FB..

[link to www.facebook.com (secure)]
 Quoting: RI McGuillicutty


its not online....
madajs

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09/28/2012 01:00 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
nvm this post had some base errors in it

Last Edited by madajs on 09/28/2012 01:03 PM
And always, he fought the temptation to choose a clear, safe course, warning: "That path leads ever down into stagnation."
Anonymous Coward
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09/28/2012 01:03 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
More NASA cone models:

Dynamic Pressure (looks bad near Earth):

[link to iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080]

Density:

[link to iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080]

Velocity:

[link to iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080]

NASA has again changed their prediction for arrival time (this the 3rd so far). Of course they keep all 3 three posted on the alert cygnet so they'll be right no matter when it hits, haha.

Event Issue Date: 2012-09-28 10:28:53.0 GMT
CME Arrival Time: 2012-09-29 22:47:45.0 GMT
Arival Time Confidence Level: ± 6 hours
Disturbance Duration: 8 hours
Disturbance Duration Confidence Level: ± 8 hours
Magnetopause Standoff Distance: 4.6 Re


[link to iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080]
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye

I'm not convinced that all of these are meant to be updates on the original CME. The original post shows the CME erupting at 0120 UTC, the one you are displaying shows a CME erupting at 1028 UTC. Even NASA doesn't get 9 hours worth of confused about when a CME began.

I think some, if not all, of these posts are separate CME's.
 Quoting: madajs


I agree, these CMEs are getting confused, however iSwa has also shown multiple eruptions simultaneously without issue or omitting one or the other.
whiteangel
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09/28/2012 01:05 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
[link to i1165.photobucket.com]

screencap showing impact
 Quoting: mistersplinter


And sure a lot faster than I am at it, lol!! (((hugs)))
Isaiah 5:20 KJV
Woe unto them that call evil good, and good evil; that put darkness for light, and light for darkness; that put bitter for sweet, and sweet for bitter!
Thread: Being Prepared - Updated Basic Food List On Page One
Tiny Trink

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09/28/2012 01:06 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
[link to i1165.photobucket.com]

screencap showing impact
 Quoting: mistersplinter


And sure a lot faster than I am at it, lol!! (((hugs)))
 Quoting: whiteangel


Angel you are awesome too!!

hugs
Tiny Trink, Double T, Tink Tink, T x 2

"You are responsible for the Energy you bring into a space" ~ Dr. Jill Bolte Taylor

Shine Brightly as someone is needing your Inner Light to find theirs.
madajs

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09/28/2012 01:07 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
I agree, these CMEs are getting confused, however iSwa has also shown multiple eruptions simultaneously without issue or omitting one or the other.
 Quoting: TS66

I edited out that post, I don't feel I understand that cygnet well enough to speak on it :)
And always, he fought the temptation to choose a clear, safe course, warning: "That path leads ever down into stagnation."
Anonymous Coward
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09/28/2012 01:08 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
[link to i1165.photobucket.com]

screencap showing impact
 Quoting: mistersplinter


Umm, is it just me or does that look really bad? I've benn following this thread for awhile now and don't remember seeing a hit quite that big or direct.. Hope I'm wrong!
Anonymous Coward
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09/28/2012 01:11 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
I agree, these CMEs are getting confused, however iSwa has also shown multiple eruptions simultaneously without issue or omitting one or the other.
 Quoting: TS66

I edited out that post, I don't feel I understand that cygnet well enough to speak on it :)
 Quoting: madajs


Well there are 2 separate CMEs on the way, we are focusing on only one, data gets confused, however, Hugh's posting is correct for the "big one" wink
Anonymous Coward
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09/28/2012 01:13 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
For those of you that may underestimate this resulting CME from a "Mere C class eruption"

This one rivals an X5 flare eruption and CME from March wink

madajs

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09/28/2012 01:13 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
Here's the entire original simulation that got overrode by the new CME

[link to postimage.org]
And always, he fought the temptation to choose a clear, safe course, warning: "That path leads ever down into stagnation."





GLP