SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)

Dst Index at -63 nT, confirming moderate storming, forecasting -112 nT which would be strong storming. The forecast is usually way off, but still interesting to see that they are even going there!

[link to wdc.kugi.kyoto-u.ac.jp]

=================
Space Weather Message Code: ALTK06
Serial Number: 293
Issue Time: 2012 Oct 01 0151 UTC

ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 6
Threshold Reached: 2012 Oct 01 0148 UTC
Synoptic Period: 0000-0300 UTC

Active Warning: Yes
NOAA Scale: G2 - Moderate

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/NOAAscales

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 55 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Power grid fluctuations can occur. High-latitude power systems may experience voltage alarms.
Spacecraft - Satellite orientation irregularities may occur; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites is possible.
Radio - HF (high frequency) radio propagation can fade at higher latitudes.
Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as New York to Wisconsin to Washington state.
=================

Last Edited by madajs on 09/30/2012 10:04 PM

1584 is south and to the left of 1582, right?

Yup.

[link to jsoc.stanford.edu]

Gakona (HAARP) magnetometer spike, ~1000nt between vertical and north fields.

[link to www.haarp.alaska.edu]

Thank you, have just used [link to www.solarham.net] for the easy visual but on the weekends it is never up to date.

Someone might want to screen-save this for T-Bar....

Boulder K-index at 6.9! 192.3 nT!!!

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

And Boulder is at K-6.9. I find it strange that the measured disturbance is not matching ACE data.. furthermore the ACE temp, speed and density figures all have an odd structure and patterned behavior that I wouldn't expect from a wad of protons. Just my observation..

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

-Edit- Beat me to it, Hugh!

Last Edited by aaronnoraa711 on 09/30/2012 10:40 PM

HAARP Fluxgate Magnetometer near 500 nT!!!!!!!!!

[link to www.haarp.alaska.edu]

Space Weather Message Code: WARK06
Serial Number: 209
Issue Time: 2012 Oct 01 0140 UTC

WARNING: Geomagnetic K-Index of 6 expected
Valid From: 2012 Oct 01 0145 UTC
Valid To: 2012 Oct 01 0600 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
NOAA Scale: G2 - Moderate

They should have issued a K-7 warning by now. Watch....if it stays at 6.9 they'll round it off to 6.0. They've done it before.

Space Weather Message Code: WARK07
Serial Number: 40
Issue Time: 2012 Oct 01 0243 UTC

WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 7 or greater expected
Valid From: 2012 Oct 01 0245 UTC
Valid To: 2012 Oct 01 0600 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
NOAA Scale: G3 or greater - Strong to Extreme

Comment: This warning upgrades the previous G2 warning.
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 50 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Power system voltage irregularities possible, false alarms may be triggered on some protection devices.
Spacecraft - Systems may experience surface charging; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites and orientation problems may occur.
Navigation - Intermittent satellite navigation (GPS) problems, including loss-of-lock and increased range error may occur.
Radio - HF (high frequency) radio may be intermittent.
Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as Pennsylvania to Iowa to Oregon.

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

Last Edited by PsycoCandy on 09/30/2012 10:50 PM

Space Weather Message Code: WARK07
Serial Number: 40
Issue Time: 2012 Oct 01 0243 UTC

WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 7 or greater expected
Valid From: 2012 Oct 01 0245 UTC
Valid To: 2012 Oct 01 0600 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
NOAA Scale: G3 or greater - Strong to Extreme

Comment: This warning upgrades the previous G2 warning.

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/NOAAscales

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 50 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Power system voltage irregularities possible, false alarms may be triggered on some protection devices.
Spacecraft - Systems may experience surface charging; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites and orientation problems may occur.
Navigation - Intermittent satellite navigation (GPS) problems, including loss-of-lock and increased range error may occur.
Radio - HF (high frequency) radio may be intermittent.
Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as Pennsylvania to Iowa to Oregon.

Psycho Candy beat me, lol

USAF Wing Prediction Model predicts a Kp 7.75!

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

Space Weather Message Code: WARK07
Serial Number: 40
Issue Time: 2012 Oct 01 0243 UTC

WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 7 or greater expected
Valid From: 2012 Oct 01 0245 UTC
Valid To: 2012 Oct 01 0600 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
NOAA Scale: G3 or greater - Strong to Extreme

Comment: This warning upgrades the previous G2 warning.
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 50 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Power system voltage irregularities possible, false alarms may be triggered on some protection devices.
Spacecraft - Systems may experience surface charging; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites and orientation problems may occur.
Navigation - Intermittent satellite navigation (GPS) problems, including loss-of-lock and increased range error may occur.
Radio - HF (high frequency) radio may be intermittent.
Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as Pennsylvania to Iowa to Oregon.

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

Real time auroral oval, visibility nearing the northern US border.

[link to solar.uleth.ca]

Good thing I copied it to paint, seems to have disappeared, I will put a photobucket on here in a few

[link to s1240.photobucket.com]

G3:
[link to www.theusner.eu]

Last Edited by PsycoCandy on 09/30/2012 11:07 PM

So where's Cesium, SnAkEbItE, TS66, Shada et al? Shouldn't someone be sending mail to T-Bar about now,hehe. This is why we watch, because no one KNOWS what's goin' to happen. NASA is always backtracking to find out WHY things happened the way they did. I had a hunch this could be strong because of the similarities to the Oct. 2011 event which caught everybody off-guard. But now I know better than to make a firm prediction because no 2 CMEs are exactly alike. I hope T-Bar logs in and humbles himself to those he belittled. Knowledge is a double-edged sword.

HERE IT IS:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]



Last Edited by Hugh M Eye on 09/30/2012 11:16 PM

BAZINKA!!!!!.....and thar she blows mateys

[link to www.theusner.eu]

Last Edited by Isis One on 09/30/2012 11:11 PM

Has there been a massive solar flare?

Was just wondering where everyone was also, usually they are all on now and there is finally something to really see !!

good catch Tink, do we know the source?

electrons and protons at ACE
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

If not im starting to feel that there has been a massive GRB from somewhere. As iv said my 1st guess would be betelgeuse.

i was wondering where they were as well
you pointed out the main thing that should always be said (i bolded)
no one can EVER tell for sure till the entire event has passed. NO ONE
great work Hugh and everyone else
this group has been so on top of this event over the last few days
your all amazing :)

Nice, I like this one better tho-

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]