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Message Subject SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Poster Handle AkivaJeff
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The New Solar Cycle Prediction came out today here [link to solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov]
"The current prediction for Sunspot Cycle 24 gives a smoothed sunspot number maximum of about 75 in the Fall of 2013. The smoothed sunspot number (for 2012/02) is already nearly 67 due to the strong peak in late 2011 so the official maximum will be at least this high. We are currently well over three years into Cycle 24. The current predicted and observed size makes this the smallest sunspot cycle since Cycle 14 which had a maximum of 64.2 in February of 1906..."

To see just how low it is, see this chart [link to satdat.ngdc.noaa.gov]
That article the other day "Solar maximum? Oh, you just missed it" here [link to www.newscientist.com] was talking with Richard Altrock, who was also one of the ones in this article last year "Sun's Fading Spots Signal Big Drop in Solar Activity" [link to www.space.com]

Looks like even quieter times ahead, it's already been quieter than even I predicted a couple years ago. I'm starting to think we may not get that second higher spike upwards a lot of people are waiting for. Oh well.
 Quoting: TBar1984


I'll have to disagree with you on this. I don't think that the prolonged minimum has any influence whatsoever on the the coming maximum. The 11 year cycle has demonstrated time and again to fluctuate. I'm not saying that I am predicting a higher maximum, I'm asserting that you have no way of predicting "quieter times ahead" with any accuracy or data to back it up. Bottom line... we don't have a clue what the sun is going to do within the next week, let alone the next year. If you have some substatiating evidence, please, we would absolutely LOVE to see it for our own digestion.
Personally, I predict that solar activity will continue to increase throughout 2012 and into the spring of 2013. The basis of my prediction is "puckering".

edit: I recall that I called the "big pussy" X-flare within one hour.
 
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