SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)

NOAA forecasters estimate a 40% chance of M-class solar flares and a 5% chance of X-flares during the next 24 hours

We may be seeing the Reverse Shock at the end of that coronal hole stream. The Bz is staying South for a bit and the SW speed is still over 500 km/s. Here's the current ACE data plot:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

No NOAA alerts issued yet, but the Boulder magnetometer is showing a K-index of 4 (unsettled) at 41.3 nT:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

Things should be calming down until the next stream (or CME if we get any) hits us. Good night, Suntards and Sol Sisters.

OOPS, as soon as I posted they issued a warning, haha.

Space Weather Message Code: WARK04
Serial Number: 2017
Issue Time: 2012 Oct 12 0406 UTC

WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Valid From: 2012 Oct 12 0406 UTC
Valid To: 2012 Oct 12 0900 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

OOPS, as soon as I posted they issued a warning, haha.

Space Weather Message Code: WARK04
Serial Number: 2017
Issue Time: 2012 Oct 12 0406 UTC

WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Valid From: 2012 Oct 12 0406 UTC
Valid To: 2012 Oct 12 0900 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

That looks like a nice one too, but a little too early to tell.

Finally something happening

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

Peaked at a C9.0

Hello Everyone,

The 2 min news talks about the radiation map for the USA and that the sun spots die out once turning to earth.

Have a great one!


[link to www.youtube.com]

Good morning all ....

What's up with the never ending C9.0???

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

.... and solar soft is forbidden again.

Forbidden

You don't have permission to access /solarsoft/latest_events/ on this server.

[link to www.lmsal.com]

Did anyone catch the filament eruption at 00:45 UTC today ??? I was checking on the C9 and saw it on SDO.

Here's a shot from the helioviewer.
Just think of the "could of beens" ....



Looks like the never ending C9 came from 1589 at 8:08

[link to halpha.nso.edu]

wow..i usually keep up on this thread..but just now on weather channel...12 flares in 2 days? and they said nasa keepin a eye out...pretty serious???

I am trying to understand the 'never ending C9' comment. When I look at the graph, I only see a short lived C9 at about hr 10. I am still trying to learn because so much of the sun stuff simply escapes me...still. What is it that I am missing?

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

Thank you 66.

And good morning to everyone!

Last Edited by shenue on 10/12/2012 09:09 AM

Are you serious? Is she serious? Wow!Deers can now read, according to this woman. LOL

If you look at the chart below the graph, it shows

Cur
Beg
Max
End
and the corresponding times of each.

They show the beginning of the C flare at 8:08, the Max at 8:20 (C9), but no end time. Not to mention, no note of the flares that followed after the C9.

It's as if someone decided to just go home in the middle of their shift.

Solar soft is still inaccessible too ???

They are all at caseys getting their 8 slices of pizza!

I can't get on solsoft either. I've seen them not give end times for flares before but its just weird because other sites aren't up and when I try to get on certain nasa sites it restarts my computer!

Restarts it ??? Never had that happen before. That's a little scary !

Thank You 66

2 things i have noticed.
1 it is just not SS but all solar activity fall silent when facing our planet.
2 i thought it was a issue with our position in the orbit around the sun and as we came around we would be facing these outbursts...but know they really seem to be going on on the backs ...well that backside is referenced from earths perspective.

this seems more like there is a magnetic push from earth's direction on the sun...as soon as this is out of reach blast away!

EYES open and yet again a beta/gama SS falls asleep and yes he is not the only one to notice this.
gee i feel like i just responded to a SHAD post about that very thing just before i watch the 2 min news..........

so?


NASA.....? SO?


oh smart ones......? SO?

just as the sun falls silent on this, so has info from our researchers...i mean our PAYED ones!

they must have cut the pie into 14 slices thinking they would have enough....opps needed to run back for more.

At least you guys are cracking on the big boys now. Makes me sad to see Shad and others laughing at the sheeple's stupidity - in the other thread..... (that guy didn't seem belligerent)some probably laugh at this thread and it's continual "*Gee, the data doesn't add up" denial, though. So, I guess it all balances out anyways......

At least you guys are cracking on the big boys now. Makes me sad to see Shad and others laughing at the sheeple's stupidity - in the other thread..... (that guy didn't seem belligerent)some probably laugh at this thread and it's continual "*Gee, the data doesn't add up" denial, though. So, I guess it all balances out anyways......

This would make sense IF it only happened when the sunspots were at the 60 degree longitude mark which is where it is earth directed, or there and about. Only from this direction would Earth be able to push something away, if that is even possible. The west and east limbs of the Sun are not earth directed, heck anything west of 30 degree longitude isn't Earth directed.

It has to be "something" else besides Earth itself. Something that was behind the Sun at one point and now seems to be more on the back west side (if you were looking at the Earth it is west or left side of screen lol). Something that is drawing the energy of the Sun that way. This has been happening since just after mid July. We've even had BGD sunspots pointing at us and they didn't even burp.

As you can tell with my unscientific wording, this is just observation from a person who loves solar watching.

Well, I have to say the lack of solar activity is maddening, and I suddenly have a new found admiration for the guys and gals at the space agencies have to endure, and observe the Solar MINIMUMs !!

Haha, well said TS! :)

The only thing I'm seeing at the moment is some Bz/Bt separation [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

Possibly the vanguard of CH539. Either way nothing much exciting going on with Sol for the moment :)

hi guys .just stopin by to take a look at the new region coming over the limb looks like its interacting with the next spot group just over the limb? [link to www.youtube.com]

awesome loops and good interaction from the two,almost synchronised

Space Weather Message Code: WARK04
Serial Number: 2018
Issue Time: 2012 Oct 12 2245 UTC

WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Valid From: 2012 Oct 12 2250 UTC
Valid To: 2012 Oct 13 1300 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

Bz going South again-ACE SW Data:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

In the last shot of the vid, those two sunspots coming around the eastern limb look concave to me, like as if they've been sucked down into the sun somewhat, i wondeer if that keeps them from flaring, like they are below some kind of elevation necessary for flares to occur. Also, maybe some force is pushing them into the sun, only on the frontside.

Oh my gosh Psy, see the comment I just posted above. I'm going through today's comments, watched the vid, posted and now see your post, I think we are thinking along the same lines

Last Edited by Isis One on 10/12/2012 08:11 PM

somebody tell me the line between 1589 and the upcoming region is a glitch.

[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

:for solar thread:

Last Edited by mtn_mang on 10/12/2012 08:18 PM