SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)

Looks a glitch in the cartoon there. The latest GOES X-Ray image shows some big energy around the east limb.

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

phew, thanks hugh.

didn't see it on any of the other spectrums so i assumed it was a mistake. the coloring of its what threw me off, didn't seem like an ordinary glitch.

Did the asteroid Vesta once have a magnetic field? Possibly, according to researchers; but their results aren't yet conclusive.

<snip>Earth has a familiar magnetic field, and little Mercury has an oddly strong one, but could a chunk of rock as small as an asteroid ever have had a magnetic field spawned by the churnings of its own molten metal core? Theorists have had their doubts because the smaller the core, the faster the churning must be. But now, scientists studying a meteorite in the lab report having found signs that the tiny core of the asteroid Vesta once churned hard enough to create a magnetic field. The discovery would give theorists a much-needed, extreme example of a dynamo to ponder.<snip>

More here:

[link to news.sciencemag.org]

Anybody out there with a few bucks may want to book an aurora trek to Iceland next April. If ya got few extra dollars, please take me with you:

[link to www.skyandtelescope.com]

Yeah. we've been looking into this. Gabe said from his info we're looking at late Oct., early Nov. Our line of thinking as the flares have been moving on the backside is that something is drawing this energy out,not nibiru.

Last Edited by Thinking out loud on 10/12/2012 09:26 PM

You know I'm sorry and feel bad for that but didn't make fun of them to their faces. I have been on countless threads trying to help and all I've been called is shill, thread killer and much worse. I've received tons of bad Karma and all I've ever done on those threads is help,so I'm a little angry with some of them. I won't venture on ridiculous threads anymore,as most of the people who have tried to help have learned faster than I have.

I'm trying to figure out why NOAA has issued that K-4 Warning. I can't find any reason for it in my search for current data. Last night they issued a k-4 warning for a 5-hour period, but this new one is for a 14-hour period!? Does anyone know why? I'm stumped here.

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

NOAA's own ENLIL model shows SW velocity projected to be declining now and density also low.

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

Boulder's Magnetometer is only showing a K=2.4 and only 14nT:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

SOHO's solar wind data shows nothing major going on there:

[link to umtof.umd.edu]

Latest ACE Mag-SW data:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

What has me puzzled is that we're usually seeing something on this thread before NOAA reluctantly posts their WARNINGs. This warning seems to be uncalled-for or at least a bit premature. Perhaps I missed something; if so please clue me in.

Convective currents pulling energy to a different area

I've seen nothing to provoke the warning?

BZ is down, solar wind much steadier uptick at about 550km/s

[link to www.solarham.net]




Dept of Commerce:

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled on day 1 (13 October). A coronal
hole high speed stream is expected to become geoeffective on days
2-3 (14-15 October) resulting in quiet to unsettled conditions with
a chance for active periods. On day 3, a slight chance exists for a
greater than 10 MeV proton event at geosynchronous orbit as Region
1589 rotates into a more geoeffective position.
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

Solen:

A high speed stream associated with CH539 became the dominant solar wind source near midnight and is currently causing unsettled to active conditions.
[link to www.solen.info]

CH539 it is

Based on the Bt/Bz separation we are seeing I'm expecting some geomagnetic disturbances too. We're almost at -10 Bz now. It may not be fast or dense, but the wind has changed to a more hostile polarity here.

Given the length of that warning, there's a lot of latitude there for their prediction to arrive.

Edit: Ah there we go, nice post by TS66 above! :)

Last Edited by madajs on 10/12/2012 09:43 PM

1589 gave me the same impression of being concave, almost like a "jet thruster" ....

sorry i know i would be misunderstood by earth's direction but had to leave....
not the earth as in our planet is pushing....just coming from this direction....i am thinking not in a pin point origin, but more like when you stand on the beach and feel the wind from over the ocean. it is blowing along the shore line all from the ocean.

Those CH winds showed up a day early!

Wing Kp [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]



Goodnight everyone .... get good rest

Just saw this

1591 (returning 1573) Still looks like it's got some juice !!!

:101212:

Thanks TS it looks juicy,if it can only develop earthside.

I agree with you,-sonic, it seems too early to me also. I looked for a solar sector boundary crossing...no, that wasn't it, either.

IMF Polarity model:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

Derived Coronal Holes:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

ACE SW velocity is pretty much where it was for the past 24 hours (although the Bz has dipped further south):

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

Again, the SOHO data shows a declining windspeed:

[link to umtof.umd.edu]

Just for the record, those CH numbers are a creation made up by Mr. Alvstad at Solen.info (bless his soul, he's usually more reliable than NOAA or Spaceweather.com). Coronal Holes, like Filaments, are so amorphous it would be nearly impossible to keep meaningful statistics on them.

If this is indeed any early arrival of that CH stream, why haven't the winds maintained a higher speed. Could it be another co-rotational interactive region "forward shock"?

I guess my real question is: If NOAA was expecting this, why didn't their models OR their forecast show it?

Okay, Hugh, now if only I can make some real dough before next April I'll go and take you too! Hey maybe we should have a Solar family field trip?! LOL

Thats funny I thought of the forward shock event before the CH was announced,and like you said there was no forecast and the winds are giving no indication. The Bz has been behaving slightly off the last two weeks, to me at least. Theres always a little give and take with CH arrival,but this doesn't seem right.

Thanks, Tropicalgirl! I only need a one-way ticket, LOL.

[link to www.earthcam.com]

Yep, the holes are very hard to forecast. We watched the last one grow almost 2X the size before it reached mid-disk;and it was close to the equator. Anyway something's coming in on the GOES electron flux now:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

[link to www.n3kl.org]

Mags dropping also along with electrons,something coming. Has to be the CH,no?

Its funny I find myself second guessing simple things anymore. The solar anomalies followed a pattern and cycle, and I studied these and felt confident, now its like I'm seeing a new star that I have to become acquainted with all over again. Oh well!

Good night everyone. Peace

It must be, although I still don't see anything for NOAA to be warning about. As I said, usually they wait 'til the magnetometers are popping all over the place before they issue a warning. I know because many times we call it here before NOAA acts on it. We can see the morphing of this coronal hole in the AIA 193a 48-hr. Mpeg movie:
[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

It seems much more squashed and irregular-shaped than the last one, and further south of the equator. I suppose the leading edge could be affecting us already considering the CIR effect.

Boulder K-index still unremarkable:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

Here's the latest SDO composite image w/field lines super-imposed:

[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

I'm waiting for big flare, so we have something else to talk about, hehe.

Last Edited by Hugh M Eye on 10/12/2012 11:35 PM

[link to spaceweather.com]

while we wait and watch....lets look at the beauty of it all!

Last Edited by psyoptics on 10/12/2012 11:42 PM

I know my brother a fat M with alot of ejecta would be nice,earth friendly of course.

Thx, awesome lights there!

I just had to laugh-out-loud when I guurgled "AR1583-images". I clicked on the nicest close-up pic that popped up. Of course, it brought me to this very thread and an HMI image posted by myself, haha. I didn't think to check my smilies....it's sobering to think that everything we post on GLP is in the GOOGLE archives somewhere (so be careful!).

I'm eagerly awaiting the return of 1583. If you recall, it formed quickly on the west limb and grew very large and volatile as it disappeared. We never did get a good look at it....well, soon we'll see it coming back over the NE limb. Here's what it looked like on Sept. 30th-

:AR1583:

Now we got some action on the Boulder magnetometer...K=4.4, 54.8nT:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

ACE 2-hr. mag-field plot is just flatlining??

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

Not much change in the ACE Solar wind data:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

These graphs still don't show me anything to account for the high magnetic fluctuations at GOES/Earth...always somethin' new to ponder, eh? Could it maybe be a FEMA space weather emergency drill?....just kidding....or am I?

OVATION Auroral Oval lighting up:
[link to helios.swpc.noaa.gov]

GOES Magnetometer:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

Last Edited by Hugh M Eye on 10/13/2012 12:20 AM

Exactly the graphs aren't showing the mag flux, thats the first sign of an anomalitical anomaly. LOL

Just doesn't fit Hugh,very strange. Maybe incoming energy has a kick to it!