SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)

Hugh, you know full well that a lot of the regulars here follow s0, so your derisive tone towards s0 watchers is disrespectful to the posters in this thread. Why is it so hard for you to just maintain minimal respect for your threadmates here?

Back to the topic...

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Space Weather Message Code: WATA20
Serial Number: 503
Issue Time: 2012 Nov 10 2015 UTC

WATCH: Geomagnetic Storm Category G1 Predicted

Highest Storm Level Predicted by Day:
Nov 11: None (Below G1) Nov 12: G1 (Minor) Nov 13: G1 (Minor)

THIS SUPERSEDES ANY/ALL PRIOR WATCHES IN EFFECT

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/NOAAscales

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

==============

EDIT: There's a second Earth directed CME incoming. [link to iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080]

This one is only predicted to clip us, whereas the 11-9 CME is modelled to hit us square on the jaw. In the next few days in quick succession we will be hit by 2 separate CME's and a CH stream.

Last Edited by madajs on 11/10/2012 05:39 PM

I appreciate each and every one of you. The scientific data and opinions make this thread great. I can't imagine going elsewhere as my 'base' for sun information. Love to you all!!

[link to www.n3kl.org]

We've got a slow moving trend towards a C flux base line.It will be interesting to see the progress of these spots in the next few days

[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

Check out the mass swirling in the SW corner,wow

[link to halpha.nso.edu]

Looks to be releasing on here,can't tell if this is a backside release

[link to halpha.nso.edu]


Looks as if 1611 has some energy brewing,looks almost like steam coming out. Looking again on SDO that SW release was backside


Heres amuch better shot of the prominence that lifted off
[link to www.solarham.net]

Last Edited by Thinking out loud on 11/10/2012 08:33 PM

Hi shada :)

Hey Madajs,will be interesting if that prominence did lift and what direction. Me thinks we'll see some more direct action soon. Peace my friend!

Last Edited by Thinking out loud on 11/10/2012 08:54 PM

DOOM-TARD SPECIAL!

The UNIVERSE IS PAST ITS PRIME & IS IN ONGOING DECLINE-

* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *

The study produced about 10 times the data of any previous effort and allowed the team to assess the rate at which stars are being born.

Their data shows the production of stars in the universe as a whole has been continuously declining over the last 11 billion years, being 30 times lower today than at its likely peak 11 billion years ago.

"You might say that the universe has been suffering from a long, serious 'crisis': Cosmic GDP output is now only 3 percent of what it used to be at the peak in star production!" Sobral said.


[link to www.spacedaily.com]

now how can we humans even begin to use any data collected in the entire time we, in this round of human's history, have been collecting.....
give us a benefit here at 1000 years....and the universe at 11 billion....our 1000 years would not even show up as a dot in the time line........was this a bone for the doomtards?

now i have piles of papers copied from the NY public library getting into odd energies....strange magnetic fields....and interaction between the sun and our atmosphere. from the 70's on scientists across the spectrum of 'ologiist have been looking into how all these anomalies have and might have effected the creatures on earth as well as the earth.

some here seem to throw this into the files under pseudo-science....well we will never know the truth of any of this by doing that......

Last Edited by psyoptics on 11/10/2012 09:26 PM

Hello Mr. 1614!

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

M1 from the NE limb I think.

:m1-11-11:

Well it got one good shot off before the ceasefire

Hey, Nerd, ya beat me again, haha. Oh I guess I saved another smilie for a rainy day.

Here's some fresh SDO images of the M-flare-

AIA 131 shows possible ejecta:
[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

AIA 171 w/post flare loops and trans-equatorial arcing:
[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

New Region 1614(?)-

:1614?:

yep, this time you beat me!
looks like definite ejection (plasma spasma)to me...chance of us copping a face-full of that? what say you?
Peace

and 1614 seems logical to me...

[link to jsoc.stanford.edu]
not in full view and it already looks very magnetically complex

That is clearly a sign that our Sun will expand to within Venus' orbit by the end of December 2012 or the start of January 2013.

agreed...nice pick-up AC
Peace

That NE limb has been popping C-flares for over 24 hours. This region shows some promise for more Earth-side flares. We'll have to get a better look at it tomorrow as it comes around. To me it looks like 3 or more umbra there.

Nice catch, Shada, on that huge prominence. It's a shame it couldn't hang on until the total eclipse. That's exactly the type of thing that would be visible during totality. I bet it would've been jaw-droppingly beautiful, too. Well maybe we'll see some more awesome events soon.

11 11 2012

I think we will, sun seems revived and geared up.

I doubt it was at all Earth-directed this time, but in a week we may get a face-full,LOL. Another AR is due to come over in the south and appears to be interacting with this one. With a total eclipse, the Taurid meteors, 2 small CMEs on the way, more filaments and new sunspots--I think we can say it won't be too boring this week.

Peace.

Yup. Finally some good solar doomtertainment before the main event kicks in next month on the 21st.

Gamma Rays emanating from the sun isn't that unusual during extremely energetic solar flares. The week of March 7 was about the most energetic we've seen this cycle (according to NIN's list we had 2 X-flares on the 7th plus 13 M-flares that week-including 3 M6 or greater!). Solar gamma ray events are not GRB's. GRB's are many (billion) magnitudes more energetic and only a few have been detected from the Milky Way galaxy. Here's a gif of a GRB to compare with that Fermi chart from March.

[link to science.hq.nasa.gov]

It came from this page of Gamma Ray info:

[link to science.hq.nasa.gov]

Just found this, don't know if it has been posted or not, sorry if it has, just posting bits.....


Is there a planetary influence on solar activity? It seems so according to this new paper

Long suspected, it seems that this has now been confirmed by a paper in Astronomy and Astrophysics with the title “Is there a planetary influence on solar activity?” by Abreu et al that was published on 22nd October, 2012.

From the Discussion and Conclusions section:

The excellent spectral agreement between the planetary tidal effects acting on the tachocline and the solar magnetic activity is
surprising, because until now the tidal coupling has been considered to be negligible. In Appendix A we show that the possibility of an accidental coincidence can be ruled out. We therefore suggest that a planetary modulation of the solar activity does take place on multidecadal to centennial time scales.

The idea that planetary motions may influence solar activity seems to have been initiated by Rudolf Wolf in the 1850s. While energy considerations clearly show that the planets cannot be the direct cause of solar activity, they may perturb the solar dynamo.

The match between theory and the physical evidence is very, very good. As the authors put it,”there is highly statistically significant evidence for a causal relationship between the power spectra of the planetary torque on the Sun and the observed magnetic activity at the solar surface as derived from cosmogenic radionuclides.”

They also advance a plausible mechanism which is that the tachocline, playing a key role in the solar dynamo process, is a layer of strong shear which coincides more or less with the layer of overshooting convection at the bottom of the convection zone. The overshoot layer is thought to be crucial for the storage and amplification of the magnetic flux tubes that eventually erupt at the solar photosphere to form active regions.

Conclusion

This paper is a major advance in our understanding of how solar activity is modulated and in turn its effect on the earth’s climate. It can be expected that planetary torque will progress to being useful as a tool for climate prediction – for several hundred years ahead.

[link to wattsupwiththat.com]

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Geo-Lurking on Volcano Cafe had this to say:

It proposes a mechanism. An actual physical mechanism that could conceivably be the link between the phenomena. It then goes on to try and test that linkage.

If it’s valid or not… well, that has yet to be seen. The authors think it’s valid, others do not. But it is real science, not mindless yammering by loons.

The link? Well, the Sun undergoes something called Differential Rotation. That’s where the equatorial regions rotate at a different speed than the higher latitude regions. The Sun, being mostly gas/plasma, that is not such a weird thing. But down about 30% solar radii down, the Sun rotates as a Solid Body. The transition zone is where it is beleived that the sheer forces generate the magnetic flux that drives eventually the sunspots. That is where the proposed link occurs. From the tidal forces on that layer.

How do they know this? By analyzing and studying the spectral lines of the light at wavelengths specific to different levels. Elements emit photons characteristic of the environment that they are in… pressure, temperature, etc. These show up as emission/absorption lines. Looking at the Doppler shift of these lines allow the researchers to learn a lot about the motion and environment of the atoms/molecule that emitted/absorbed the light.

That is one reason that we know about the Livingston-Penn thing. Livingston-Penn noted that the magnetic field inside the cores of suspots (the dark area) were getting weaker over time. Below about 1500 Gauss, they won’t be strong enough to evacuate enough material from the core of the Sunspot to be visible. They will still be there, they just won’t show up in the visible spectrum.

[link to volcanocafe.wordpress.com]

Few links:

[link to www.leif.org]

[link to www.leif.org]

[link to halpha.nso.edu]

1608 looks like its trying to juice that curled up filament to let go,has had energetic ripples going through it for awhile.
I've had my head in different sciences for most of my life . 4 years ago I got interested in the solar aspect of physics,so I'm new at the history of previous cycles,and I am wondering if the filament increase was anything like this in previous solar max completions,as I am having difficulty finding answers to this?

It reminds me of a snake shedding its skin,and starting anew. An exfoliating plasma release.lol

Last Edited by Thinking out loud on 11/10/2012 11:18 PM

I could tell that guy was lying 3 seconds in.