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Message Subject SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Poster Handle Hugh M Eye
Post Content
I'm thinking we may see a strong flare from this fast-growing AR1619 (I'm talking M or X-strength). The region is directly facing Earth so any CMEs would certainly be geoeffective. I notice on the Big Bear movie that a flare shockwave from 1619 (mid-disk north) travelled west and slammed into a large filament....like driving into a brick wall. A stronger flare may dislodge the filament and send it zooming towards Earth. What do you folks think? Here's the Big Bear h-alpha movie:

[link to halpha.nso.edu]

Look how the magnetic structure of this region has strengthened in less than 24 hours!

AR1619-Approx. 20 hrs. ago-
:1618mag:

AR1619 NOW (1700z)-
:1619HMIBC:
 
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