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Message Subject SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Poster Handle Hugh M Eye
Post Content
Sol may be waking up! We just had a B6 flare from AR1635-

[link to halpha.nso.edu]

NOAA says 60% chance of C-flares!

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2012 Dec 21 0030 UTC

# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. Region
1633 (S07W00) and Region 1634 (S13W00) have both remained stable and
quiet for the past 24 hours. Region 1635 (N09E44) has changed the most
since the last report with multiple new areas of emerging flux and new
sunspots. SDO magnetogram imagery shows a new flux region emerging about 8 degrees east of Region 1635. It is too early to determine if this is
an extension of Region 1635 or a new separate region
. Further analysis
will be needed. LASCO C2 and C3 imagery showed a partial halo CME
lifting off the solar disk around 20/1600 UTC. STEREO Behind COR2
imagery verified that this CME was a back-sided event, thus not Earth
directed.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is likely to be low for the next three days (21-23 Dec).
Initial analysis suggested a lowering of C-class flare probabilities;
however, the new growth of sunspots around 1635 suggests C-class events are still likely and probabilities around 60% are appropriate.

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary
SRS Number 356 Issued at 0030Z on 21 Dec 2012
Report compiled from data received at SWO on 20 Dec
I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 20/2400Z
Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type
1633 S07W00 111 0260 Eko 12 13 Beta
1634 S13W00 111 0060 Hsx 02 02 Alpha
1635 N09E44 066 0250 Eki 12 08 Beta

Also, I notice an equatorial coronal hole growing SW of AR1635. It seems well-positioned to become geoeffective and may be worth keeping an eye on.
[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

AR1633 & 1634-
:1633-34HMIBC:

AR1635-
:1635HMIBC:
 
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