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Message Subject SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Poster Handle Hugh M Eye
Post Content
AR1654 now measured at 1100 Millionths! I told ya it was growing....oh, and NOAA doesn't see a Delta either.

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary
SRS Number 12 Issued at 0030Z on 12 Jan 2013
Report compiled from data received at SWO on 11 Jan
I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 11/2400Z
Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type
1642 S25W70 252 0110 Hsx 03 01 Alpha
1644 N15W58 240 0020 Hsx 01 01 Alpha
1649 S16W21 203 0060 Cao 03 03 Beta
1650 S28W16 198 0110 Cao 05 02 Beta
1652 N19W00 182 0210 Eai 13 16 Beta-Gamma
1653 N09W08 190 0010 Cao 00 02 Beta
1654 N08E31 151 1100 Fki 17 36 Beta-Gamma
1655 S21W24 206 0010 Cro 05 02 Beta
1656 N22E52 130 0010 Axx 00 01 Alpha
1657 S17E23 159 0010 Cro 02 02 Beta
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

AR1656 is obviously a Beta region and larger than 0010 millionths. I suppose it's also growing. AR1657 can't be found by me, so I guess it's invisible now. At 1100 millionths, 1654 may be the largest active region of Cycle 24. If not, it has gotta be close to it. If I find time I'll check back in the old sunspot archives to see.

Latest Intensitygram:
[link to jsoc.stanford.edu]

NOAA Discussion:

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity has been moderate. Region 1654 (N08E31) is the most
threatening region on the solar disk. 1654 has shown slight growth
throughout the period and maintains a beta-gamma magnetic configuration
with an estimated area of 1,100 millionths.
1654 produced two M-class
flares over the past 24 hours, the first was an M1 event at 11/0911 UTC
with an associated type II radio sweep of 537 km/s and a type IV, and
the second was an M1/2f event at 11/1507 UTC. An impulsive Tenflare was
observed at 11/1845 UTC, and peaked at 330 solar flux units. Region
1652 (N19W00) also showed slight growth and maintains a beta-gamma
magnetic configuration,
but has not produced an event during this
period. Newly-numbered Region 1656 (N22E52) is an Axx type Alpha group
while newly-numbered Region 1657 (S17E23) is a Cro type Beta group. We
are currently awaiting LASCO and STEREO imagery to determine if a
possible coronal mass ejection associated with the 11/0911 UTC M1 flare
has an earthward component.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be at moderate levels (R1 radio blackouts)
over the next three days (12 - 14 Jan) with Region 1654 being the most
likely culprit.

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

AR1652 DID produce an event because I saw it! Lockheed logs a C4.5 flare from 1650 in the southern hemisphere, but their flare movie for that time period focuses on 1654. Looks like the Pros are off their game also, haha.

[link to www.lmsal.com]
 
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