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Message Subject SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Poster Handle Anonymous Coward
Post Content
Bradford updated and gave 1654 a 52% for an M and 57% for an X!!

[link to spaceweather.inf.brad.ac.uk]
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 25323670

I wonder if those are based on older images though. Maybe those probabilities are based on imagery from before the M flare earlier.
 Quoting: AR1654 Monster

fromdirectly below the solar flare model on the site

"How does flare monitor work?
Our agent program "SPIDER" connects to the SDO website every two minutes to search for the new HMI images and download them to our server.

These images are then processed using "ASAP" to automatically detect, group and then classify the sunspot groups and calculate their flaring probabilities.

[link to spaceweather.inf.brad.ac.uk]
 Quoting: NiNzrez 28232082

They retrieve the images every two minutes but they only run the model periodically (and not on a set schedule). The ASAP model run time-stamp is in the beige bar below the sun. You will notice that the flare probabilities only change when the time-stamp changes.
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