SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily) | |
Spittin'Cesium User ID: 14589973 Netherlands 01/13/2013 03:56 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | It be this one [link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov] I am sure : ) The thing that hath been, is That which shall be; and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun. Ecclesiastes 9:1 |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 30846516 United States 01/13/2013 04:21 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | I don't know a lot about this stuff but it does interest me. I have been following for a while and have couple questions.. Quoting: Anonymous Coward 28236632 1- so are you guys looking for an x-class here? let's say we were to have one..what would the implications be? 2- it seems that x-class flares are not too uncommon so what is the hype? Like I said earlier... hang out here and read. Hugh called the Earth bound CME before the model was posted ! |
Hugh M Eye User ID: 31662450 United States 01/13/2013 04:27 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | INCOMING CME- Quoting: Hugh M Eye New NASA Cone Model shows direct hit @ Earth of small CME! [link to iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080] :1/13cone: CME Arrival Time Forecast for January 16. Event Issue Date: 2013-01-13 14:37:44.0 GMT CME Arrival Time: 2013-01-16 19:21:22.0 GMT Arival Time Confidence Level: ± 6 hours Disturbance Duration: 11 hours Disturbance Duration Confidence Level: ± 8 hours Magnetopause Standoff Distance: 6.3 Re [link to iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov] STEREO A Cor2difference image of Earthbound CME: [link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov] STEREO A movie: [link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov] STEREO B movie: [link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov] Earthbound CME (Stereo A diff. image w/tweaked color values) :1/13CMEc2a: |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 32097533 Portugal 01/13/2013 04:42 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Saved webcam image from northern Sweden right now: [link to img836.imageshack.us] [link to www.auroraskystation.com] rel= [link to www.auroraskystation.com] |
psyoptics User ID: 11919225 United States 01/13/2013 04:52 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | DAFQ.... if you do not post on a thread it will fall off our active threads even if they are still active.... they are not active for you....when you are not active with them. i find if i want to keep a thread to check in on...either randomly bump or place it in your fav's. the later will keep it till you remove it. Last Edited by psyoptics on 01/13/2013 04:52 PM a good video editor can make anyone say anything the editor wants. |
Hugh M Eye User ID: 31662450 United States 01/13/2013 04:55 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Saved webcam image from northern Sweden right now: [link to img836.imageshack.us] [link to www.auroraskystation.com] rel= [link to www.auroraskystation.com] Quoting: Luisport Yes, nice find, thanks Luisport! I forgot about our coronal hole windstream. Solar wind velocity has climbed to 500+km/sec.. Here's the current ACE data plot: [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov] GOES Electron Fluxx disturbed: [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov] Boulder Magnetometer: [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov] |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 31894001 Canada 01/13/2013 04:58 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | like I said from now till July we will rotate to where all that backside activity has been... the backside activity comes fron the energy comming from the center of our galaxy.... the western limb is just getting a taste of it now.... unlike most of you I step away from my computer and listen to mother earth and the galaxy above... wow the stuff I have seen with no city lights to block my imagination.... wicked awesome meteors december 12 2012..one flashed in the sky 3 time lighting up all the surounding mountains.... blue wind blowing over the moon december 20 to january 3... wild hum/vibration heard at my home since january 27 2012 and increasing in strength every day... and so on and on and on... you guys are awesome cause you stick to your computers and confirm everything I see.... here is my theory, only had a couple reply's from the sungods, wish there were more..... Thread: Must Read...Our Sun has been protecting us from our Center ....Not any more though! |
Isis One User ID: 14343270 United States 01/13/2013 05:02 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | 52 might be the first spot in a long time that didn't decay as it became earth facing. We are breaking a pattern here I think. Quoting: Isis One It seems the pattern is shifting and earth side filament numbers have declined Good point. I wonder too, if its high latitude has something to do with it. 1654 is lower and may still decay, but that would be a significant if latitude is a variable. Last Edited by Isis One on 01/13/2013 05:04 PM Spread the word, change the collective conscious...... THERE IS MORE THAN ENOUGH OF EVERYTHING TO GO AROUND When you are undisciplined, the universe is extremely forgiving and when you are disciplined, the universe is extremely generous. Me One doesn't discover new lands without consenting to lose sight, for a very long time, of the shore. Andre Gide [link to www.godlikeproductions.com] |
abeliever Members User ID: 17868616 United States 01/13/2013 05:03 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | like I said from now till July we will rotate to where all that backside activity has been... Quoting: Anonymous Coward 31894001 the backside activity comes fron the energy comming from the center of our galaxy.... the western limb is just getting a taste of it now.... unlike most of you I step away from my computer and listen to mother earth and the galaxy above... wow the stuff I have seen with no city lights to block my imagination.... wicked awesome meteors december 12 2012..one flashed in the sky 3 time lighting up all the surounding mountains.... blue wind blowing over the moon december 20 to january 3... wild hum/vibration heard at my home since january 27 2012 and increasing in strength every day... and so on and on and on... you guys are awesome cause you stick to your computers and confirm everything I see.... here is my theory, only had a couple reply's from the sungods, wish there were more..... Thread: Must Read...Our Sun has been protecting us from our Center ....Not any more though! A New Englander! |
Spittin'Cesium User ID: 14589973 Netherlands 01/13/2013 05:05 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | 52 might be the first spot in a long time that didn't decay as it became earth facing. We are breaking a pattern here I think. Quoting: Isis One It seems the pattern is shifting and earth side filament numbers have declined Good point. I wonder too, if its high latitude has something to do with it. 1654 is lower and may still decay, but that would be a significant if latitude is a variable. Hello Luvly : ) I am sure you must have it already but just incase - The thing that hath been, is That which shall be; and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun. Ecclesiastes 9:1 |
#Geomagnetic_Storm# User ID: 26012302 United States 01/13/2013 05:10 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Wow! Thank you GM - That was pretty amazing Bro' I'm going to have to try and train my Reflector onto the Sun sometime also,what Filters do you use,just the standard 'Sun Filter'? Hello all by the way I've just come online so I'm just back-checking for a few Minutes,hope you are all fine and dandy : ) No filter. Just the Coronado pst. It comes with everything. But a sun filter will give you good shots of sunspots. Last Edited by Bomb Cyclone on 01/13/2013 05:17 PM |
Isis One User ID: 14343270 United States 01/13/2013 05:27 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Can someone clarify for me please? This thread's enlil shows a CME arrival on the 18th, Hugh's above has one on the 16th, this thread has a KP yellow alert listed. Which event is associated with which date? I was here last night for the C and the M flare. Did the M have a CME afterall? Thanks Thread: Suntards: Enlil Spiral was just updated Spread the word, change the collective conscious...... THERE IS MORE THAN ENOUGH OF EVERYTHING TO GO AROUND When you are undisciplined, the universe is extremely forgiving and when you are disciplined, the universe is extremely generous. Me One doesn't discover new lands without consenting to lose sight, for a very long time, of the shore. Andre Gide [link to www.godlikeproductions.com] |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 16845676 United States 01/13/2013 06:00 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Solar wind speed: 504.0 km/sec density: 3.3 protons/cm3 winds really picked up since am [link to spaceweather.com] |
Spittin'Cesium User ID: 14589973 Netherlands 01/13/2013 06:04 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Can someone clarify for me please? This thread's enlil shows a CME arrival on the 18th, Hugh's above has one on the 16th, this thread has a KP yellow alert listed. Which event is associated with which date? I was here last night for the C and the M flare. Did the M have a CME afterall? Thanks Quoting: Isis One Thread: Suntards: Enlil Spiral was just updated Confusion reigns. The thing that hath been, is That which shall be; and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun. Ecclesiastes 9:1 |
Spittin'Cesium User ID: 14589973 Netherlands 01/13/2013 06:10 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | I can see two on EUVI Ahead,one that starts in the North-West that appears to have something pop with it below around Mid-Disc and the other in the extreme South-East [link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov] ,can anyone see anything else? The thing that hath been, is That which shall be; and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun. Ecclesiastes 9:1 |
Cosmogenesis12 User ID: 32111303 Portugal 01/13/2013 06:16 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Can someone clarify for me please? This thread's enlil shows a CME arrival on the 18th, Hugh's above has one on the 16th, this thread has a KP yellow alert listed. Which event is associated with which date? I was here last night for the C and the M flare. Did the M have a CME afterall? Thanks Quoting: Isis One Thread: Suntards: Enlil Spiral was just updated Confusion reigns. so Slar ham heliosphric graphhics are not right? or did we missed somethin here on the thread? there were mentioned before a earlier cme could be geoefective... but how come an earlier CME arrives after... an after one no way no doubt some confusion... or miss data |
Isis One User ID: 14343270 United States 01/13/2013 06:18 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | I can see two on EUVI Ahead,one that starts in the North-West that appears to have something pop with it below around Mid-Disc and the other in the extreme South-East [link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov] ,can anyone see anything else? Quoting: Spittin'Cesium I see a small cme from the south western quad at 9-10:00 UTC on the 12th on the 3 day vid. The other big cme's on the 10 and 11 do not seem earthdirected to me. [link to sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov] Last Edited by Isis One on 01/13/2013 06:43 PM Spread the word, change the collective conscious...... THERE IS MORE THAN ENOUGH OF EVERYTHING TO GO AROUND When you are undisciplined, the universe is extremely forgiving and when you are disciplined, the universe is extremely generous. Me One doesn't discover new lands without consenting to lose sight, for a very long time, of the shore. Andre Gide [link to www.godlikeproductions.com] |
Cosmogenesis12 User ID: 32111303 Portugal 01/13/2013 06:26 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
Isis One User ID: 14343270 United States 01/13/2013 06:38 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | I can see two on EUVI Ahead,one that starts in the North-West that appears to have something pop with it below around Mid-Disc and the other in the extreme South-East [link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov] ,can anyone see anything else? Quoting: Spittin'Cesium I see a small cme from the south western quad at 9-10:00 UTC on the 12th on the 3 day vid. The other big cme's on the 10 and 11 do not seem earthdirected to me. [link to sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov] OK, I think there was a glancing blow from one of those big blasts (on 10th or 11th), so that's probably the cme due on the 16th. So that just leaves the cme due on the 18th coming from where? I don't read solarham so not sure I can figure it out from there. Last Edited by Isis One on 01/13/2013 06:42 PM Spread the word, change the collective conscious...... THERE IS MORE THAN ENOUGH OF EVERYTHING TO GO AROUND When you are undisciplined, the universe is extremely forgiving and when you are disciplined, the universe is extremely generous. Me One doesn't discover new lands without consenting to lose sight, for a very long time, of the shore. Andre Gide [link to www.godlikeproductions.com] |
Hugh M Eye User ID: 31662450 United States 01/13/2013 06:47 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Can someone clarify for me please? This thread's enlil shows a CME arrival on the 18th, Hugh's above has one on the 16th, this thread has a KP yellow alert listed. Which event is associated with which date? I was here last night for the C and the M flare. Did the M have a CME afterall? Thanks Quoting: Isis One Thread: Suntards: Enlil Spiral was just updated NASA and NOAA almost always give different forecasts for CME arrivals. Usually they're not this divergent. This makes it even more fun to watch. We can keep score on which model is the most ludicrous, LOL. Really they're just ballpark guesstimates. Not so many years ago there was no clue when CMEs were coming, so this is still a baby science. Personally, I have no idea what the speed of this plasma is. But NOAA's 5-day estimate would make it slow-as-molasses, so I'll tentatively go with the NASA guesstimate of late on the 16th. I'm really believing there's gonna be a bigger blast soon which will kick the first one in the ass, and move up the arrival time even more. I'm hopin' to see some CME cannibalism. Sometimes NASA gives out 2 or 3 different arrival forecasts and I bet we see a different one when the "A-Team" comes in to work on Monday, haha. As it stands, a slow-mover is bound to hang around longer although the dynamic pressure will be less. CACTus data appears to be missing on this CME. The M-flare peaked at 08:38z and there was a huge data gap (of course) with SOHO. CACTus is an automated CME detection tool, so no data input=no analysis output. Maybe NASA should employ psychics....can't hurt. [link to www.sidc.oma.be] Here's the early H-alpha movie--there's a lot going on and I couldn't pinpoint any CME here or on the SDO images. [link to halpha.nso.edu] Last Edited by Hugh M Eye on 01/13/2013 06:49 PM |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 25323670 United States 01/13/2013 06:50 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | [link to ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov] |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 25323670 United States 01/13/2013 06:51 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 25323670 United States 01/13/2013 06:52 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
Isis One User ID: 14343270 United States 01/13/2013 06:54 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Can someone clarify for me please? This thread's enlil shows a CME arrival on the 18th, Hugh's above has one on the 16th, this thread has a KP yellow alert listed. Which event is associated with which date? I was here last night for the C and the M flare. Did the M have a CME afterall? Thanks Quoting: Isis One Thread: Suntards: Enlil Spiral was just updated NASA and NOAA almost always give different forecasts for CME arrivals. Usually they're not this divergent. This makes it even more fun to watch. We can keep score on which model is the most ludicrous, LOL. Really they're just ballpark guesstimates. Not so many years ago there was no clue when CMEs were coming, so this is still a baby science. Personally, I have no idea what the speed of this plasma is. But NOAA's 5-day estimate would make it slow-as-molasses, so I'll tentatively go with the NASA guesstimate of late on the 16th. I'm really believing there's gonna be a bigger blast soon which will kick the first one in the ass, and move up the arrival time even more. I'm hopin' to see some CME cannibalism. Sometimes NASA gives out 2 or 3 different arrival forecasts and I bet we see a different one when the "A-Team" comes in to work on Monday, haha. As it stands, a slow-mover is bound to hang around longer although the dynamic pressure will be less. CACTus data appears to be missing on this CME. The M-flare peaked at 08:38z and there was a huge data gap (of course) with SOHO. CACTus is an automated CME detection tool, so no data input=no analysis output. Maybe NASA should employ psychics....can't hurt. [link to www.sidc.oma.be] Here's the early H-alpha movie--there's a lot going on and I couldn't pinpoint any CME here or on the SDO images. [link to halpha.nso.edu] Thank you very much Hugh. Do you see the fair bit of ejecta coming out at the 4 o'clock position at around 9-10:00 UTC on the 12th on this vid? It is the only thing that seems earthbound to me in the past 72 hours and maybe that can account for the cme due in around the 16th. If there is going to be a piggyback, we need it soon, no? [link to sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov] Last Edited by Isis One on 01/13/2013 06:54 PM Spread the word, change the collective conscious...... THERE IS MORE THAN ENOUGH OF EVERYTHING TO GO AROUND When you are undisciplined, the universe is extremely forgiving and when you are disciplined, the universe is extremely generous. Me One doesn't discover new lands without consenting to lose sight, for a very long time, of the shore. Andre Gide [link to www.godlikeproductions.com] |
Spittin'Cesium User ID: 14589973 Netherlands 01/13/2013 06:59 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | There are some awesome Anomalies on COR2 Ahead starting on the 5th January that are included in this video,I don't subscribe to the video producers notions but do think these are incredible - [link to www.youtube.com] The chap sounds very,very stoned. (Disclaimer:Drugs are Bad) The thing that hath been, is That which shall be; and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun. Ecclesiastes 9:1 |
Hugh M Eye User ID: 31662450 United States 01/13/2013 07:07 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Can someone clarify for me please? This thread's enlil shows a CME arrival on the 18th, Hugh's above has one on the 16th, this thread has a KP yellow alert listed. Which event is associated with which date? I was here last night for the C and the M flare. Did the M have a CME afterall? Thanks Quoting: Isis One Thread: Suntards: Enlil Spiral was just updated NASA and NOAA almost always give different forecasts for CME arrivals. Usually they're not this divergent. This makes it even more fun to watch. We can keep score on which model is the most ludicrous, LOL. Really they're just ballpark guesstimates. Not so many years ago there was no clue when CMEs were coming, so this is still a baby science. Personally, I have no idea what the speed of this plasma is. But NOAA's 5-day estimate would make it slow-as-molasses, so I'll tentatively go with the NASA guesstimate of late on the 16th. I'm really believing there's gonna be a bigger blast soon which will kick the first one in the ass, and move up the arrival time even more. I'm hopin' to see some CME cannibalism. Sometimes NASA gives out 2 or 3 different arrival forecasts and I bet we see a different one when the "A-Team" comes in to work on Monday, haha. As it stands, a slow-mover is bound to hang around longer although the dynamic pressure will be less. CACTus data appears to be missing on this CME. The M-flare peaked at 08:38z and there was a huge data gap (of course) with SOHO. CACTus is an automated CME detection tool, so no data input=no analysis output. Maybe NASA should employ psychics....can't hurt. [link to www.sidc.oma.be] Here's the early H-alpha movie--there's a lot going on and I couldn't pinpoint any CME here or on the SDO images. [link to halpha.nso.edu] Thank you very much Hugh. Do you see the fair bit of ejecta coming out at the 4 o'clock position at around 9-10:00 UTC on the 12th on this vid? It is the only thing that seems earthbound to me in the past 72 hours and maybe that can account for the cme due in around the 16th. If there is going to be a piggyback, we need it soon, no? [link to sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov] I think you mean the 13th, the CME is definitely around the time of the M1.7 flare from 1652. I'm nearly certain this came from the flare, but there were multiple regions sparking and a large eruption on the west limb at the same time. CME was first spotted on the STEREO A coronagraph (they just took the movie off so you'll have to find my earlier post for the link). The CME forecast came out this afternoon. |
Spittin'Cesium User ID: 14589973 Netherlands 01/13/2013 07:12 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Can someone clarify for me please? This thread's enlil shows a CME arrival on the 18th, Hugh's above has one on the 16th, this thread has a KP yellow alert listed. Which event is associated with which date? I was here last night for the C and the M flare. Did the M have a CME afterall? Thanks Quoting: Isis One Thread: Suntards: Enlil Spiral was just updated NASA and NOAA almost always give different forecasts for CME arrivals. Usually they're not this divergent. This makes it even more fun to watch. We can keep score on which model is the most ludicrous, LOL. Really they're just ballpark guesstimates. Not so many years ago there was no clue when CMEs were coming, so this is still a baby science. Personally, I have no idea what the speed of this plasma is. But NOAA's 5-day estimate would make it slow-as-molasses, so I'll tentatively go with the NASA guesstimate of late on the 16th. I'm really believing there's gonna be a bigger blast soon which will kick the first one in the ass, and move up the arrival time even more. I'm hopin' to see some CME cannibalism. Sometimes NASA gives out 2 or 3 different arrival forecasts and I bet we see a different one when the "A-Team" comes in to work on Monday, haha. As it stands, a slow-mover is bound to hang around longer although the dynamic pressure will be less. CACTus data appears to be missing on this CME. The M-flare peaked at 08:38z and there was a huge data gap (of course) with SOHO. CACTus is an automated CME detection tool, so no data input=no analysis output. Maybe NASA should employ psychics....can't hurt. [link to www.sidc.oma.be] Here's the early H-alpha movie--there's a lot going on and I couldn't pinpoint any CME here or on the SDO images. [link to halpha.nso.edu] Thank you very much Hugh. Do you see the fair bit of ejecta coming out at the 4 o'clock position at around 9-10:00 UTC on the 12th on this vid? It is the only thing that seems earthbound to me in the past 72 hours and maybe that can account for the cme due in around the 16th. If there is going to be a piggyback, we need it soon, no? [link to sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov] I see it,that was part of the Southern Crown Filament ejecting from NiNz Magic Corner(never fails to produce)and does look to be heading partially this way as do a couple of others but I don't think that is the one on the other Sim. I think they are just differing forecasts for the same CME. Did you catch the one that appears to be going North on your link Isis? That looks(though faint)to maybe be partially ours - I'll have another look see. The thing that hath been, is That which shall be; and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun. Ecclesiastes 9:1 |
Spittin'Cesium User ID: 14589973 Netherlands 01/13/2013 07:17 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Possible joint Flaring from 1654 and 52 [link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov] . Edit:Scuse' moi! Anyway,check out the bridges being made between the Sunspot grouping in the North-West [link to sdodata.oma.be] ! Looking ready to let one go if you ask me. Last Edited by Spittin'Cesium on 01/13/2013 07:23 PM The thing that hath been, is That which shall be; and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun. Ecclesiastes 9:1 |
Isis One User ID: 14343270 United States 01/13/2013 07:44 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Possible joint Flaring from 1654 and 52 [link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov] . Quoting: Spittin'Cesium Edit:Scuse' moi! Anyway,check out the bridges being made between the Sunspot grouping in the North-West [link to sdodata.oma.be] ! Looking ready to let one go if you ask me. Thanks for your excellent eagle eye (I may go spotting tomorrow if its nice). I did see the northern one. Yes, if that bridge blows, Hugh may get the piggyback cme's. Also interesting, how much brighter/active 52 looks than 54, I see couple bright spots coming over the limb also. Last Edited by Isis One on 01/13/2013 07:46 PM Spread the word, change the collective conscious...... THERE IS MORE THAN ENOUGH OF EVERYTHING TO GO AROUND When you are undisciplined, the universe is extremely forgiving and when you are disciplined, the universe is extremely generous. Me One doesn't discover new lands without consenting to lose sight, for a very long time, of the shore. Andre Gide [link to www.godlikeproductions.com] |
Hugh M Eye User ID: 31662450 United States 01/13/2013 07:51 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Space Weather Message Code: WARK04 Serial Number: 2036 Issue Time: 2013 Jan 13 2305 UTC WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected Valid From: 2013 Jan 13 2305 UTC Valid To: 2013 Jan 14 1000 UTC Warning Condition: Onset Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude. Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur. Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska. [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov] |