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Message Subject SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Poster Handle Hugh M Eye
Post Content
Can someone clarify for me please? This thread's enlil shows a CME arrival on the 18th, Hugh's above has one on the 16th, this thread has a KP yellow alert listed. Which event is associated with which date? I was here last night for the C and the M flare. Did the M have a CME afterall? Thanks

Thread: Suntards: Enlil Spiral was just updated
 Quoting: Isis One

NASA and NOAA almost always give different forecasts for CME arrivals. Usually they're not this divergent. This makes it even more fun to watch. We can keep score on which model is the most ludicrous, LOL. Really they're just ballpark guesstimates. Not so many years ago there was no clue when CMEs were coming, so this is still a baby science.

Personally, I have no idea what the speed of this plasma is. But NOAA's 5-day estimate would make it slow-as-molasses, so I'll tentatively go with the NASA guesstimate of late on the 16th. I'm really believing there's gonna be a bigger blast soon which will kick the first one in the ass, and move up the arrival time even more. I'm hopin' to see some CME cannibalism.

Sometimes NASA gives out 2 or 3 different arrival forecasts and I bet we see a different one when the "A-Team" comes in to work on Monday, haha. As it stands, a slow-mover is bound to hang around longer although the dynamic pressure will be less.

CACTus data appears to be missing on this CME. The M-flare peaked at 08:38z and there was a huge data gap (of course) with SOHO. CACTus is an automated CME detection tool, so no data input=no analysis output. Maybe NASA should employ psychics....can't hurt.
[link to www.sidc.oma.be]

Here's the early H-alpha movie--there's a lot going on and I couldn't pinpoint any CME here or on the SDO images.
[link to halpha.nso.edu]
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye

Thank you very much Hugh. Do you see the fair bit of ejecta coming out at the 4 o'clock position at around 9-10:00 UTC on the 12th on this vid? It is the only thing that seems earthbound to me in the past 72 hours and maybe that can account for the cme due in around the 16th. If there is going to be a piggyback, we need it soon, no?

[link to sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov]
 Quoting: Isis One

I think you mean the 13th, the CME is definitely around the time of the M1.7 flare from 1652. I'm nearly certain this came from the flare, but there were multiple regions sparking and a large eruption on the west limb at the same time. CME was first spotted on the STEREO A coronagraph (they just took the movie off so you'll have to find my earlier post for the link). The CME forecast came out this afternoon.
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