NOAA Discussion forecasts CME arrival on 1/17 @21:00z (more than 24 hrs. later than NASA'a forecast)-.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity has been moderate. Region 1652 (N19W28) produced the
largest event of the previous 24 hours, an M1 flare at 13/0838 UTC with
a Type II radio sweep estimated at 649 km/s. Region 1652, a Cao-type
spot group with a beta-gamma magnetic configuration, continued to decay.
Region 1654 (N08E04), an Fkc-type spot group with a beta-gamma magnetic
configuration, remained the most threatening region on the solar disk,
but showed slight decay in its intermediate spots. Newly-numbered
Region 1658 (S12E63) was a simple Cso-type, beta spot group. An earthward directed coronal mass ejection (CME) was observed on STEREO
Ahead/Behind imagery, as well as LASCO C2 imagery, starting at 13/0938
UTC. The CME was associated with the M1 flare at 13/0838 UTC from
Region 1652. An initial ENLIL model run indicated that the CME will
likely impact Earth at approximately 17/2100 UTC based on a speed
estimate of 371 km/s.
Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an
X-class flare for days one, two, and three (14 - 16 Jan).
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov
] Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary
SRS Number 14 Issued at 0030Z on 14 Jan 2013
Report compiled from data received at SWO on 13 Jan
I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 13/2400Z
Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type
1649 S16W49 205 0060 Cao 03 03 Beta
1650 S28W44 200 0060 Cao 03 03 Beta1652 N19W28 184 0210 Cao 04 16 Beta-Gamma
1654 N08E04 152 0950 Fkc 17 31 Beta-Gamma
1656 N22E25 131 0030 Cro 07 07 Beta1658 S12E63 090 0100 Cso 04 06 Beta