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Message Subject SOLAR WATCH * M2.4 Solar Flare July 14 2017! Earth directed CME (Updated Daily)
Poster Handle Spittin'Cesium
Post Content
Funny you mention that now...I have just been trawling through some older Solar Data/Stats and concluded that the period around November 2011 resembled a Solar Max. in terms of Sunspot Number and Flare Output,here -

[link to www.solen.info] Note the Sunspot Number around 2011/11/06 is 209 which is higher than present.

I will post some of the images and data from that period to try and show that this cycle(as we know)is way,way off...here is the Sun as of November 6th 2011 [link to www.solen.info] Stats. page [link to www.solen.info] Note that the Southern CH is Blue(positive)and the North CH Red(negative) - Compare the CH Polarity with the present,I'll use the December Rotation to illustrate my point [link to www.solen.info] Yes,opposite.

Now some other images from the late 2011 period along with the page so that you can view the Stats. for yourselves -

Solar Image October 2011 [link to www.solen.info] and page [link to www.solen.info]

November 4th 2011 [link to www.solen.info] Stats. - The background x-ray flux is at the class C3 level.

At midnight UTC the visible solar disk had 9 spotted regions (in 2K resolution SDO images).

Region 11330 [N07W85] rotated partly out of view at the northwest limb.
Region 11332 [N32W54] was quiet and stable.
Region 11334 [N13W33] was quiet and stable.
Region 11336 [N15E13] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 11337 [N18E27] developed slowly and was quiet.
Region 11338 [S13E43] was quiet and stable.
Region 11339 [N19E58] is a complex, compact, very large region with the potential to produce X10+ class flares. There is a significant magnetic delta structure in the central part and the region will likely continue to produce lots of flares. Flares: C4.4 at 00:18, C3.4 at 01:30, C2.9 at 03:25, C3.2 at 07:15, C2.1 at 09:44, C3.4 at 10:11, M2.5 at 11:11, C1.5 at 14:08, C3.8 at 14:54, C2.2 at 18:09, C4.5 at 18:53, impulsive major X1.9/2B at 20:27, C5.4/1N at 22:18, C9.2 at 23:13, M2.1 at 23:36 UTC. Initially it appeared as if a large CME observed late in the day was associated with the X1 event. However, the source of that CME was backsided.

Jumping forward to July 5th 2012 [link to www.solen.info] [link to www.solen.info] Stats. - The background x-ray flux is at the class C5 level.

At midnight UTC the visible solar disk had 11 spotted active regions (in 2K resolution SDO images).

Region 11512 [S15W84] added trailing spots and was quiet.
Region 11513 [N15W37] decayed slowly and remains capable of producing C and M class flares. Flare: M1.8/2N at 16:39 UTC. This event was associated with a very weak type II radio sweep and a small CME. The CME was observed off the east limb in STEREO-A and west limb in STEREO-B and could reach Earth on July 7. The CME was not easily observed in LASCO imagery.
Region 11514 [S16W36] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 11515 [S18W25] displayed impressive development in the central spot section. Several magnetic delta structures are evident as negative polarity spots are trapped inside positive polarity flux. This has caused a significant increase in the background x-ray level. There's a high probability of major M or X class flares. Flares: C5.1/1F at 01:45, C6.1 at 04:10, M2.3 at 04:37, C6.7 at 09:06, major M5.3/2B at 09:55, C5.8 at 11:17, C5.6 at 14:13, M1.3/1F at 14:40, C8.2 at 14:49, C6.4 at 15:50, C6.9 at 16:12, C9.5 at 21:27, M4.6 at 22:09, C7.4 at 22:45, M1.2 at 23:55 UTC.
Region 11516 [N12W53] decayed slowly and quetly.
Region 11517 [N19W13] decayed slowly and quietly.
New region 11518 [N09E68] rotated into view on July 3 and was numbered by SWPC the next day.
New region 11519 [S15E76] rotated into view with a single spot. (I can clearly remember AR1515(Isis)as she put out a great show)

July 6th [link to www.solen.info] Stats. - The background x-ray flux is at the class C2 level.

At midnight UTC the visible solar disk had 14 spotted active regions (in 2K resolution SDO images).

Region 11513 [N15W51] decayed losing most of the small spots and simpified magnetically. The single penumbra was mostly unchanged.
Region 11514 [S18W49] decayed further and could soon become spotless.
Region 11515 [S17W38] lost a few spots and what was a major magnetic delta decreased in size and importance. There are currently small magnetic delta structures in all large penumbrae. M class flares are highly likely and there's a chance of an X class flare. Flares: M1.2 at 00:38, M3.7 at 01:10, M1.2 at 01:31, C9.9 at 01:41, C8.1 at 02:05, C7.9 at 02:26, M3.3 at 02:42, M1.1 at 03:31, M7.8 at 03:36, M3.0 at 03:42, M1.1 at 04:45, C8.5 at 05:05, M1.2 at 06:53, M1.6 at 07:45, C8.0 at 09:30, M2.3 at 10:48, C9.2 at 10:56, M8.7 at 11:44, M1.4 at 13:20, C9.5 at 13:55, C8.4 at 14:46, C6.1 at 15:59 ... UTC. In addition 2 M and several C flares were recorded later in the day. The flare list is according to SDO/SAM/EVE 1 minute measurements.
Region 11517 [N19W26] added a few spots but lost mature penumbra.
Region 11518 [N09E53] was quiet and stable.
Region 11519 [S16E62] was quiet and stable.

Anyway,I'll stop there(excuse me folks)I am pretty sure you get the point I am trying to make...I invite anyone to go back and view other Dates ranging from around October/November 2011 through Mid 2012 and note the Magnetic Complexity of the Active Regions,the SS Number and output in X-Rays as well as the SW Speeds and migrating CHs' and I think you may conclude the same as I am beginning to - That Solar Max. happened already though we may get another short round if the Solar output in X-Rays increases and the Sunspot count goes above the November 2011 high of 209.

Again,please excuse my diatribe,I can't help itsunhf
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