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Message Subject SOLAR WATCH * M2.4 Solar Flare July 14 2017! Earth directed CME (Updated Daily)
Poster Handle Isis One
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Funny you mention that now...I have just been trawling through some older Solar Data/Stats and concluded that the period around November 2011 resembled a Solar Max. in terms of Sunspot Number and Flare Output,here -

[link to www.solen.info] Note the Sunspot Number around 2011/11/06 is 209 which is higher than present.

I will post some of the images and data from that period to try and show that this cycle(as we know)is way,way off...here is the Sun as of November 6th 2011 [link to www.solen.info] Stats. page [link to www.solen.info] Note that the Southern CH is Blue(positive)and the North CH Red(negative) - Compare the CH Polarity with the present,I'll use the December Rotation to illustrate my point [link to www.solen.info] Yes,opposite.

Now some other images from the late 2011 period along with the page so that you can view the Stats. for yourselves -

Solar Image October 2011 [link to www.solen.info] and page [link to www.solen.info]

November 4th 2011 [link to www.solen.info] Stats. - The background x-ray flux is at the class C3 level.

At midnight UTC the visible solar disk had 9 spotted regions (in 2K resolution SDO images).

Region 11330 [N07W85] rotated partly out of view at the northwest limb.
Region 11332 [N32W54] was quiet and stable.
Region 11334 [N13W33] was quiet and stable.
Region 11336 [N15E13] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 11337 [N18E27] developed slowly and was quiet.
Region 11338 [S13E43] was quiet and stable.
Region 11339 [N19E58] is a complex, compact, very large region with the potential to produce X10+ class flares. There is a significant magnetic delta structure in the central part and the region will likely continue to produce lots of flares. Flares: C4.4 at 00:18, C3.4 at 01:30, C2.9 at 03:25, C3.2 at 07:15, C2.1 at 09:44, C3.4 at 10:11, M2.5 at 11:11, C1.5 at 14:08, C3.8 at 14:54, C2.2 at 18:09, C4.5 at 18:53, impulsive major X1.9/2B at 20:27, C5.4/1N at 22:18, C9.2 at 23:13, M2.1 at 23:36 UTC. Initially it appeared as if a large CME observed late in the day was associated with the X1 event. However, the source of that CME was backsided.

Jumping forward to July 5th 2012 [link to www.solen.info] [link to www.solen.info] Stats. - The background x-ray flux is at the class C5 level.

At midnight UTC the visible solar disk had 11 spotted active regions (in 2K resolution SDO images).

Region 11512 [S15W84] added trailing spots and was quiet.
Region 11513 [N15W37] decayed slowly and remains capable of producing C and M class flares. Flare: M1.8/2N at 16:39 UTC. This event was associated with a very weak type II radio sweep and a small CME. The CME was observed off the east limb in STEREO-A and west limb in STEREO-B and could reach Earth on July 7. The CME was not easily observed in LASCO imagery.
Region 11514 [S16W36] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 11515 [S18W25] displayed impressive development in the central spot section. Several magnetic delta structures are evident as negative polarity spots are trapped inside positive polarity flux. This has caused a significant increase in the background x-ray level. There's a high probability of major M or X class flares. Flares: C5.1/1F at 01:45, C6.1 at 04:10, M2.3 at 04:37, C6.7 at 09:06, major M5.3/2B at 09:55, C5.8 at 11:17, C5.6 at 14:13, M1.3/1F at 14:40, C8.2 at 14:49, C6.4 at 15:50, C6.9 at 16:12, C9.5 at 21:27, M4.6 at 22:09, C7.4 at 22:45, M1.2 at 23:55 UTC.
Region 11516 [N12W53] decayed slowly and quetly.
Region 11517 [N19W13] decayed slowly and quietly.
New region 11518 [N09E68] rotated into view on July 3 and was numbered by SWPC the next day.
New region 11519 [S15E76] rotated into view with a single spot. (I can clearly remember AR1515(Isis)as she put out a great show)

July 6th [link to www.solen.info] Stats. - The background x-ray flux is at the class C2 level.

At midnight UTC the visible solar disk had 14 spotted active regions (in 2K resolution SDO images).

Region 11513 [N15W51] decayed losing most of the small spots and simpified magnetically. The single penumbra was mostly unchanged.
Region 11514 [S18W49] decayed further and could soon become spotless.
Region 11515 [S17W38] lost a few spots and what was a major magnetic delta decreased in size and importance. There are currently small magnetic delta structures in all large penumbrae. M class flares are highly likely and there's a chance of an X class flare. Flares: M1.2 at 00:38, M3.7 at 01:10, M1.2 at 01:31, C9.9 at 01:41, C8.1 at 02:05, C7.9 at 02:26, M3.3 at 02:42, M1.1 at 03:31, M7.8 at 03:36, M3.0 at 03:42, M1.1 at 04:45, C8.5 at 05:05, M1.2 at 06:53, M1.6 at 07:45, C8.0 at 09:30, M2.3 at 10:48, C9.2 at 10:56, M8.7 at 11:44, M1.4 at 13:20, C9.5 at 13:55, C8.4 at 14:46, C6.1 at 15:59 ... UTC. In addition 2 M and several C flares were recorded later in the day. The flare list is according to SDO/SAM/EVE 1 minute measurements.
Region 11517 [N19W26] added a few spots but lost mature penumbra.
Region 11518 [N09E53] was quiet and stable.
Region 11519 [S16E62] was quiet and stable.

Anyway,I'll stop there(excuse me folks)I am pretty sure you get the point I am trying to make...I invite anyone to go back and view other Dates ranging from around October/November 2011 through Mid 2012 and note the Magnetic Complexity of the Active Regions,the SS Number and output in X-Rays as well as the SW Speeds and migrating CHs' and I think you may conclude the same as I am beginning to - That Solar Max. happened already though we may get another short round if the Solar output in X-Rays increases and the Sunspot count goes above the November 2011 high of 209.

Again,please excuse my diatribe,I can't help itsunhf
 Quoting: Spittin'Cesium

This is no diatribe, it is POETRY! You have biographied the sun in such a way as to bring tears to my eyes. I've never seen this done before quite like you did it SC. Your whole post here feels divinely inspired. It coincides with our early initial musings here past couple days about the consciousness of the Sun. Namastehf
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