SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)

woah!

yeah that is bigger.

the thing is though I was expecting disturbances for this period and wrote about it before hand.
the magnetic field going crazy also currently.

Here is a screen capture that I got on December 14, 2011
[link to img51.imageshack.us]
Sometimes the computer generated red circles can become large.

did you guys see this?

chirp chirp chirp

[link to www.haarp.alaska.edu]

looks like code

from march 3rd

Magnetosphere has been crazy all day. Anyone any idea whats causing this?

The raw data looks stable, Bz closed up,

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

[link to www.n3kl.org]

No indication of a geo effective storm.

No offense, and IMHO,I really think there is too much emphasis put on a fallible simulation, NICT was far more accurate.

Yes BL, its behaving as predicted, appreciated all your screenshots of past week on your post!

i would say down in La by the sink holes...yes hole"s"...there are 2 now!

just a thought TS....
does the sim get the raw data....data that we do not see?

if so could be one of 2 things then.....bad data going into the sim....or we are not seeing the actual data....not fixed so to speak just like looking at a RMS volt meter and an ociloscope of that same voltage....
RMS would show 120 volts and the scpoe would show +175 to -175 volts

Didn't see this posted here, sorry if it was. We Solar loves would have been in 7th heaven, that is if we weren't effected by the power outages!!!!!!!!!!

Well NICT terminated their website last year blaming it on "the lease of their supercomputer expired".

Which is complete BULLSHIT!
Why?

Because they had SAVED data history in movie format going back over 10 years!
There was no reason for them to wiped out all that history!
That is unless...

Well I was checking out some of their links, and their raw data is referred to on this page (scroll down a little)

[link to ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov]

IMF data from ACE propagated to XGSM = 33 RE:
(view the most recent 24 hours of ACE data with warnings and caveats at www.sec.noaa.gov/ace/MAG_SWEPAM_24h.html)

or ACE ... [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

Now many have us started watching this simulation when the NICT program was discontinued ... and to be honest, it typically looks like a tangled mess.

Obviously, the Earth is hit with sun's radiation and solar winds as a constant, so we are going to see some impact on the magnetosphere, whether their is some addition causing increased impact or not, at all times.

When we would watch NICT, you'd see it light up, then go back to ACE to see what was "up". With this simulation, it appears to light up, but rarely has the raw data to explain it.

This is why I stopped following it. To me it's misleading, and depicts far worse magnetosphere conditions that what the actually data shows.

I think NICT is out there somewhere ... we just don't have access to it anymore.

Learning to read the raw data may be intimidating, but necessary.

When, and there have been many occasions, there is unexplainable increase of activity on ACE, that's when I start investigating.

Also, just as a reminder, both on this simulation and NICT, when actually being hit by something, the "wings" spread out, and aren't in a tangled jumble.

I'm learning it myself 7475. Here is a yt form Aug 2012. As he states when he checks out the sun as a possible source, he finds it is very quiet. My understanding is that when solar wind is LOW, it allows for more cosmic rays to penetrate earth's atmosphere and you'll see those bigger circles. I suspect that the scale of that graph USED TO work just fine. It suggests, Cosmic Ray streaming has increased significantly since the scale/graph was initially developed.


oops, here is the vid

Last Edited by Isis One on 03/11/2013 06:39 PM

Nice post WA, thanks, how bout the significance of the date? Right in BL's window again. Something out there sure is affecting us regularly.

Here's a good example of some direct hits. The first one at :50, the second, and smaller at around 3:17 or so, another at around 3:40 .... etc, etc this to me represents impact, not what we are seeing today.

there's a source with a type connection to Earth's orbit in where when Earth reaches a general orbital position the disturbances occur over and over again.

Here's an example from back in February:



Bare in mind this post from Feb 17th in mind and then look what happened on Feb 25th 2013.. and in comparison to the previous 4 years:

2013, 2012, 2011, 2010 in that sequence:





This is just one example, there's a whole lot more.
Put simply, it's one thing to document historical data that tells a story.. it's another to use it to predict coming magnetic field activity.

I agree. I've seen that mag sim go bonkers over nothing much. Its been consistent lately though which does have me wondering. Theres been energy coming in as I've felt it big time over the last week. Very strange days.
So as I jump back and forth I realize this dilemma. The simulations are showing me mild to moderate events, no worries.... except we haven't had anything to give us this type of energy, unless the mags pooping out.
This reminds me of what Gabe had been saying before he stopped posting. An energy will enter our system disrupt electromagnetic currents and bring with it lots of dense junk (comets,meteors). He thought this would be right after the first of the year, he may have been a couple months off!

Last Edited by Thinking out loud on 03/11/2013 07:28 PM

:magn311:

Pretty hard to refute Bending Lights predictions.

And I'd agree completely, except isn't indicating any great energy. Regardless if it originates from the sun, behind the sun, or from deep space, ACE would show it .... solar winds aren 't even hitting 350 ....


I would love to agree, disagreeing iso unpleasant, ..... I'm still watching with you all.

I agree with you.LOL Just hoping it isn't the start of something bigger. What I'm feeling could be ground induced also, as I'm close to the new madrid and the sinkholes been very seismic of late.Peace TS, and lets hope we get some good explainable solar action.

Yes ..... please, at least we had a couple Cs today .... unfortunately nothing enough to rock the mag ......

Shada

It's the plasma cloud the whole solar system is flying through at 58,000 MPH and the unknown areas of this Milky Way Galaxy arm that will take us hundreds of years to exit, 'They Say' . Our solar system is NOT part of the MWG, as all of you should know.

It is being assimilated.

Yes and we've got new black holes showing up daily, the oort cloud interfering with fluffy, no actual sytem bowshock, massive galactic magnetic bubbles and another massive cloud getting eaten by our black hole, with the potential to release jet particles. What a couple of years we' ve had. LOL Thanks for the reminder we may be a galactic stepchild, I sometimes forget important things.Peace my friend! We wait and see what tomorrow brings!

I hate to get bogged down in this nonsense for the nth time, but the so-called 'Magnetopause reversal' has been explained, debunked, and thrown in the wastebin already.

First of all, it's an impossibility (unless a black hole appears nearby). The Earth's magnetic field is generated by thermal convection and electrical currents in the planet's molten core; and the magnetopause is the result of pressure from the everpresent solar winds (most of which is deflected around the field). So unless the solar winds start sucking instead of blowing, no reversal is possible.

Secondly, the geomagnetic storm of March 12, 2012 was moderately strong (yesterday I said severe, but it was only rated a G2 storm) and the CME arrival played havoc with the ACE sensors (this is not unusual during CME impact events). As you should know, that lousy NASA simulation model is based on ACE data fed to it in real-time. I pulled the archival ACE solar wind data from 2012 and I'll post a link you so you can see for yourself.

ACE data archive for March 2012:
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

Now at the top you'll see what the different codes mean: 0=good data; 1-8=bad data; and 9=no data. For some unknown reason they sometimes input a -9999 for missing proton density or wind speed. On the 3/12/12 data you'll also see many 0.0 protons (remember this is during an incoming CME!) and at 1800-1900z we see the SW speed go from 720 km/s to NEGATIVE 9999.9 km/s. I wish I'd saved the real-time ACE graphs from that day....it was a mess. Here's the archived ACE plot from the week of 3/7/2012....we definitely took a pounding and it was all from the Sun ;)
[link to www.srl.caltech.edu]

To simplify things, there was lots of bad data, and missing data being fed into what I believe is a flawed model anyway and , y'know, GARBAGE IN= GARBAGE OUT- it's really as simple as that. By the way, for those who remember the NICT simulation, you may recall that they shut it down several times during extreme events for the same reason--the ACE data stopped making sense.

For anyone with questions or curiosity, here's an in-depth tutorial on the magnetosphere (you can pick any topic on the menu from Radiation Belts to Ring Currents to even Cosmic Rays). Many answers can be found here:
[link to www.phy6.org]

And this page on geomagnetism explains the formation of the Earth's Magnetic field and some nice graphics:
[link to www.nationalatlas.gov]

Last Edited by Hugh M Eye on 03/11/2013 08:39 PM