SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)

Hi Dettro, I'm still here too, boards waking up a bit now, LD M!

There might be some piggybacking, have to see what the speeds are on these events.

SolarSoft is saying is from 1692 too.

[link to www.lmsal.com]

I'm trying to stay awake. Yep a LDE M flare

Beautiful, nice shot, I know, I have to go to bed soon, gotta work at 10:30.

Ah, finally......

[link to www.theusner.eu]

LDE M Flare in Progress - CME Watch In Effect!
[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]
This M flare event started taking place at the same time SWPC issued an alert that there is a Geomagnetic Sudden Impulse. This indicated that the CME we were expecting for March 15th has now arrived

Very good, I'm getting better at reading charts and putting two and two together, Love learning here!!

According to Solarham, this is what looks to be a significant eruption. We shall see.

[link to stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov]

there IS a CME!
and before anyone asks... yes it will be Earth directed
almost a dead on shot
[link to stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov]
[link to stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov]

according to My Solar Alerts it is as well
wow.....

any way to get an early peak at speed?

Accuweather says Kp6 to Kp7 and will be adjusted as more info comes out.

:neat:

You were kind of dead on with this prediction.

impressive looking CME...

Much Love,

[link to www.youtube.com]

Good Morning

Last Edited by shenue on 03/15/2013 04:44 AM

Yes it is my friend. This will be interesting, the mags got to be a little out of shape.lol

Kp 7? That CME on the Enlil sim looks too small to cause a 7

Last Edited by Solar Guardian on 03/15/2013 05:37 AM

The sun is quite for how long ????

Every time I get ready to take a flight, it gets busy !!! Oy

[link to sohodata.nascom.nasa.gov]

Looks like a very decent particle event. That northern lineup may give us some more action also.

Long Duration Event sustained x-ray flux level above C1 for 5 hours! Big, fast CME on the way and initial forecasts say it may be here tomorrow 3/16/2013.

:3/15flare:

SDO close-up movie of M-flare ruined by some smelly planet getttin' in the way:

[link to sdowww.lmsal.com]

GONG H-alpha movie loop:

[link to halpha.nso.edu]

SEEDS Movie of full-halo (type IV) CME:

[link to spaceweather.gmu.edu]

Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was moderate. Minor radio blackout (R1) conditions were
observed. A long duration M1/1f flare occurred at 15/0658 UTC from the
vicinity of Regions 1696 (N05W16, Eai/beta-gamma) and 1692 (N09E02,
Hsx/alpha). Images from the GONG H-Alpha network monitor show a
filament between these two regions disappearing during that time. The
flare was accompanied by a tenflare (150 pfu). At 15/0712 UTC, imagery
from the SOHO/LASCO coronagraph showed an asymmetrical full halo CME.
This CME was also visible in STEREO-A COR2 imagery at 15/0712 UTC. A
preliminary speed estimate of 1399 km/s was obtained using a combination
of STEREO and SOHO coronagraph imagery (geometric localization). For
comparison, a speed of 807 km/s was obtained using simple plane of sky
measurements from two LASCO C3 images.

Space Weather Message Code: SUM10R
Serial Number: 573
Issue Time: 2013 Mar 15 0753 UTC

SUMMARY: 10cm Radio Burst
Begin Time: 2013 Mar 15 0631 UTC
Maximum Time: 2013 Mar 15 0649 UTC
End Time: 2013 Mar 15 0651 UTC
Duration: 20 minutes
Peak Flux: 150 sfu
Latest Penticton Noon Flux: 123 sfu
Description: A 10cm radio burst indicates that the electromagnetic burst associated with a solar flare at the 10cm wavelength was double or greater than the initial 10cm radio background. This can be indicative of significant radio noise in association with a solar flare. This noise is generally short-lived but can cause interference for sensitive receivers including radar, GPS, and satellite communications.
:3/15halo:

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. At 15/0526 UTC, a
geomagnetic sudden impulse (23 nT at BOU) was observed as the shock from
the 12 Mar CME reached the magnetosphere. Following the shock, the
field activity rose to unsettled levels.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to rise to active to minor storm
periods during the day and will likely persist into the early part of
day 2 (16 Mar). As noted in the solar wind forecast, a coarse estimate
of arrival is around 16/1800-2100 UTC, suggesting prolonged active
conditions at a minimum and the potential for minor to major storm
levels. A chance for isolated minor storm (G1) conditions has been
added to the day 2 (16 Mar) forecast. Refined estimates of the arrival
timing and magnitude of todays CME will be possible once additional
LASCO imagery is received (after 15/1405 UTC) and output from the
WSA-Enlil model is available.
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

Tomorrow, its moving at a good pace then.

[link to www.lmsal.com]

March 11th. you can see the polarity of SS and CH fields

[link to www.lmsal.com]

Those fields shifted on the 14th maybe allowing the possibility of some electromagnetic pickup.


[link to www.lmsal.com]

We've got this nice V of a CH coming around the bend also, which may have some influence on these events and some continued Storming. Won't be boring for the next week.

[link to iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov]
:bertbook:

BOOM!............ouch.

[link to stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov]

Ouch indeed.
At the least Sol was nice enough to butter us up with 2 small ones before it decided to take shit on us.



Hier kommpt die sonne



Last Edited by Da fuq on 03/15/2013 07:58 AM

CACTus CME Details show a mean velocity of 840 km/s (and mistakenly call it a type II halo). NOAA's speed guesstimate was nearly double at 1399 kms/s. This gives us a huge amount of "wiggle room" in our arrival predictions. Anybody care to guess along ? We can make it a contest, LOL.

[link to www.sidc.oma.be]