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Message Subject
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SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
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Poster Handle
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Spittin'Cesium |
Post Content
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The Solar Rundown from Solen - ' Recent activity
The geomagnetic field was quiet on March 25. Solar wind speed at SOHO ranged between 321 and 403 km/s.
Solar flux measured at 20h UTC on 2.8 GHz was 92.6 (decreasing 9.3 over the last solar rotation).
The background x-ray flux was at the class B1 level.
At midnight UTC the visible solar disk had 4 spotted active regions (in 2K resolution SDO images).
Region 11702 [N08W83] was quiet and stable. Region 11704 [N15E46] was quiet and stable. New region 11705 [S12E19] emerged on March 24, developed further during the first half of March 25, then began to decay.
Spotted regions not numbered by SWPC: New region S2314 [S18E80] rotated into view with a single spot'
'Coronal Holes - A recurrent trans equatorial coronal hole (CH562) will be in an Earth facing position on March 25-27. A recurrent northern hemisphere coronal hole (CH563) could rotate into an Earth facing position on March 28.' ' Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet on March 26-27. A high speed stream from CH562 could cause quiet to active conditions on March 28-30' [ link to www.solen.info] . So,pretty shit really,hey? SWPC discussion - ' Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary... Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. Region 1704 (N16E45) has been the most active region producing multiple low level B-class events. Even though Region 1704 has been relatively active, it has remained magnetically stable. Region 1705 (S12E21) was numbered early in the period and has shown moderate growth during the period. The remaining regions on the disk remained stable and quiet. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the past 24 hours.
.Forecast... Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels with a chance for C-class events for the next three days (26-29 Mar). The slightly elevated levels are due to the growth and evolution of Region 1705.
Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at moderate to high levels reaching a peak value of 1611 particle flux units (pfu). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit was at background levels.
.Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate to high levels for the next two days (26 - 27 Mar). A return to normal background levels is expected on day three (28 Mar). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels for the next three days (26 - 28 Mar).
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters, as measured at the ACE spacecraft, were indicative of a nominal interplanetary magnetic field environment. Solar wind speeds ranged from around 360 to 425 km/s. Interplanetary magnetic field Bt values ranged from 2 to 10 nT.
.Forecast... Solar wind speed is expected to remain at nominal values for the next two days (26 - 27 Mar). However, late on day two (27 Mar), solar wind speeds are expected to increase following a noticeable density enhancement. These solar wind signatures are indicative of a co-rotating interactive region (CIR) preceding a coronal hole high-speed stream (CH HSS). On day three (28 Mar) a further increase in solar wind speed is expected as a CH HSS moves into a more geoeffective position.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels for the past 24 hours.
.Forecast... The geomagnetic field is expected to remain at mostly quiet levels for the next two days (26 - 27 Mar). Late on day two (27 Mar), a increase to quiet to unsettled levels is expected as a CH HSS moves into a geoeffective position. An further increase to unsettled to active levels with a chance for a minor storm (G1) is expected on day three (28 Mar), as solar wind speeds continue to increase in response to the CH HSS' [ link to www.swpc.noaa.gov] . X-Rays - [ link to www.swpc.noaa.gov] Averaging about B2.0< Classy.
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