SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)

Hey, thanks for posting and alerting us to this event. This is the first I heard of it and haven't been able to dig up much info other than what you quoted above. Don't expect to see this with your naked eyes....they estimate this source to be 5 BILLION LIGHT-YEARS from Earth! That's pretty damn far out, eh? From what I can gather, they initial blast was seen optically at a magnitude 7 or so; and this supernova "after-glow" is forecasted to be around magnitude 22 or 23. In other words you'll need a huge telescope to see it. (Of course I may be in error in this because I haven't the time or data access today for any in-depth analysis. My info was found on the apod link above and the links within.)

Just imagine if an event of this size happened say, 10 LYs from Earth. We'd probably be cooked......well-done.

From the apod info cited above [link to apod.nasa.gov]

TITLE: GCN CIRCULAR
NUMBER: 14476
SUBJECT: GRB 130427A: RAPTOR Bright Counterpart Before Swift Trigger
DATE: 13/04/28 00:12:42 GMT
FROM: James Wren at LANL <[email protected]>

J. Wren, W.T. Vestrand, P. Wozniak, and H. Davis,
of Los Alamos National Laboratory report:

Three RAPTOR full-sky persistent monitors at Maui, HI, and Los Alamos, NM,
independently detected bright optical emission at the location of the
Swift trigger 554620 (Maselli, et al., GCN 14448). Starting at 07:47:07.28
UT (50.2 seconds before the Swift trigger) we detect a brightening counterpart
which peaks at magnitude R~7.4. After the peak, the source fades to below
10th magnitude at approximately the Swift trigger time. The unfiltered images
from all three monitors are calibrated to the Tycho-2 V-band catalog.
[link to gcn.gsfc.nasa.gov]

TITLE: GCN CIRCULAR
NUMBER: 14526
SUBJECT: GRB 130427A: Predictions about the occurrence of a supernova
DATE: 13/05/02 09:15:09 GMT
FROM: Remo Rufinni at ICRA <[email protected]>

R. Ruffini, C.L. Bianco, M. Enderli, M. Muccino, A.V. Penacchioni, G.B. Pisani, J.A. Rueda, N. Sahakyan, Y. Wang, L. Izzo report:

The late x ray observations of GRB 130427A by Swift-XRT clearly evidence a pattern typical of a family of GRBs associated to supernova (SN) following the Induce Gravitational Collapse (IGC) paradigm (Rueda & Ruffini 2012; Pisani et al. 2013). We assume that the luminosity of the possible SN associated to GRB 130427A would be the one of 1998bw, as found in the IGC sample described in Pisani et al. 2013. Assuming the intergalactic absorption in the I-band (which corresponds to the R-band rest-frame) and the intrinsic one, assuming a Milky Way type for the host galaxy, we obtain a magnitude expected for the peak of the SN of I = 22 - 23 occurring 13-15 days after the GRB trigger, namely between the 10th and the 12th of May 2013.

Further optical and radio observations are encouraged.
[link to gcn.gsfc.nasa.gov]

Explanation of Optical Magnitude:
[link to en.wikipedia.org]

Last Edited by Hugh M Eye on 05/08/2013 09:42 PM

More on GRB130427/ Supernova:

Swift Trigger details:

[link to www.swift.ac.uk]

Swift Raw Data Archive access:

[link to www.swift.ac.uk]

Howdy-doo-dee Hugh : )

...you say doomsday?
Yes you did, I did not, lol... yet... shivers... On another thread, here: Thread: F.O.G. (Page 845)


TT and WA posted these, relating to what shadasonic brought here earlier:







EDITO:
added red to whiteangel's quote.


Last Edited by curi0sis*SolSis on 05/08/2013 10:14 PM

Energy wise it will be very difficult to see unless your looking through a high model, but feel may be a different thing. Considering we're in the photonic bathing from Alcyone and will be for quite awhile I've been wondering if this acceleration in noticeable GRBs may be more than just low sun activity. Maybe we're entering the golden age of light. Just a hope, considering the shape of our world.

I thought the exact same thing, 5 billion light years, wow!
Looking into this at 10 LY, we would be ...gone! Very cool and alarming, but at 10 LY we probably wouldn't 'see' it coming.

Thanks for the links Mi Amigo!

Last Edited by Thinking out loud on 05/08/2013 10:28 PM

Howdy, AC, most visible meteors from comet trails are from small bits of dust like grains of sand. They cause flashes and trails as the hit the atmosphere around 60 miles up. We just passed through the cloud of dust left by Comet Halley ( the Eta-Aquarid meteor shower.
[link to spaceweather.com]

In 1910, Earth passed right through the tail of Halley's Comet and nothing bad happened. Folks were scared witless by doom-mongers selling comet protection pills, gas masks, comet umbrellas (I'm not joking), and many predictions of the End of the World.
[link to www.wired.com]

Whatever you do, don't fall for the hype and hysteria. The UFO fringe cost 39 folks their lives during Comet Hale-Bopp's passage back in '97.
[link to en.wikipedia.org]

Now it is much easier to put out phony info on YouTube, but here's the info on the UFO fraud connected to Hale-Bopp.
[link to www.ifa.hawaii.edu]

Images (real & phony):
[link to www.ifa.hawaii.edu]

More Comet Hysteria:
[link to cometography.com]

[link to www.tnonline.com]

And I won't even bring up the Comet Elenin fiasco........

about time for the customary goodbye kisses around the southwest limb.

night folks

- G'night Mah, G'night Pah.

- G'night sunspot.


: )

g'night all

So it looks as if a supernova explosion has to be less than 100 light years away (this one is billions) for it to have an effect on the biosphere of earth.

[link to en.wikipedia.org]

Goodnight Daddy, Goodnight Elizabeth, Goodnight John Boy, Goodnight Jim Bob, Goodnight Grampa, Goodnight Erin, Goodnight Jason, Goodnight Mama, Goodnight Grandma Walton, Goodnight!

Japan Quake caused by massive gamma ray burst after it arrives here on Earth!!!
Thread: Japan Quake caused by MASSIVE GAMMA RAY BURST

Thanks for posting this, Isis One , that link has some very interesting info there including this morsel -

Past events

Evidence from daughter products of short-lived radioactive isotopes shows that a nearby supernova helped determine the composition of the Solar System 4.5 billion years ago, and may even have triggered the formation of this system. Supernova production of heavy elements over astronomic periods of time ultimately made the chemistry of life on Earth possible.
In 1996, astronomers at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign theorized that traces of past supernovae might be detectable on Earth in the form of metal isotope signatures in rock strata. Subsequently, iron-60 enrichment has been reported in deep-sea rock of the Pacific Ocean by researchers from the Technical University of Munich. 23 atoms of this iron isotope were found in the top 2 cm of crust, and these date from the last 13 million years or so. It is estimated that the supernova must have occurred in the last 5 million years or else it would have had to have happened very close to the solar system to account for so much iron-60 still being here. A supernova occurring so close would have probably caused a mass extinction, which didn't happen in that time frame. The quantity of iron seems to indicate that the supernova was less than 30 parsecs away. On the other hand, the authors estimate the frequency of supernovae at a distance less than D (for reasonably small D) as around (D/10 pc)3 per Ga, which gives a probability of only around 5% for a supernova within 30 pc in the last 5 million years. They point out that the probability may be higher because we are entering the Orion arm of the Milky Way.
Adrian L. Melott et al. estimated that gamma ray bursts from "dangerously close" supernova explosions occur two or more times per billion years, and this has been proposed as the cause of the end Ordovician extinction, which resulted in the death of nearly 60% of the oceanic life on Earth.

We had a C3.4 flare from AR1734 today:

[link to www.lmsal.com]

Movie:
[link to sdowww.lmsal.com]

AR1734-
:5/8-1734:

How far away is the one that is getting all the attention now?
EDIT: My apologies...Eventhough I read Isis One's post, my brain somehow managed to miss the part where she mentioned how far away this one is. I just now saw it. Sorry

Last Edited by shenue on 05/09/2013 10:36 AM

And Good Morning everyone!

Thanks Hug.

aparently ISON Tail is 2 million kms or milles...

and its not only grains of Sand

I believe we some how protected yes

but one has to see what have been hapening on the meteor crash and light ... on strange ways lately... insistently... in diferent parts...

ty for your amazing work Hugh `s

If all is calm, why has pain level shot up so suddenly? Any flares in progress or Gamma ray or CME or can solar eclipse have effect on pain? Just trying to learn how to discern what my body is trying to communicate. Thanks!

There's been a HUMONGOUS filament eruption and giant CME (farside west). To me it looks to be about 30% the length of the sun's diameter. That's pretty big! No SOHO images yet, but I guarantee they'll be astounding. Check out the CME it produced on the STEREO coronagraph movies-

STEREO Ahead:
[link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

STEREO Behind:
[link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

The eruption can be seen in the southern hemisphere on the Ahead EUVI movie:

[link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

This is not Earth-directed and most likely will have no geoeffective consequences. Still awaiting SOHO data/images.

Almost an M Flare

C9.0 [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

:prm09:

Oh my Fuck!?

Wowz,that is incredulously incredible - What is the Object that enters stage Left on Behind [link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov] just prior to the CME...anyone!?

It is not listed as a Planet on the Stereo Site so was wondering if anyone may happen to know if it is a Star/Cluster or just freak Space object..?

It looks pretty large.

That CME,again,wow.

Must dash.

Hello Dettro(and all)

The X-rays looks pretty beastial,that large Flare was from just beyond the North-East limb [link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov] [link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov] so chances are that it was a M Flare.

Quite tasty [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov] .

Erm,is this [link to halpha.nso.edu] the Moon entering Frame on the Left?

Hope so,LoL.

Looks like it came from the East limb of the sun:
[link to www.lmsal.com]
EVE image:
[link to img542.imageshack.us]
It warmed things up a bit as well:
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
Here is the earth sun position today:
[link to iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov]

Thanks SC......

Last Edited by joinca on 05/09/2013 07:49 PM

I wonder why the weather and some rain is traveling from east to west across Nevada to California right now?
BACKWARDS
[link to radar.weather.gov]
and
[link to weather.unisys.com]

Hello JCA

Good to be here,if only for 10 Minutes or so

There is lots of movement all about the disk [link to halpha.nso.edu] nice.

Hmmm...?

[link to weather.unisys.com] ?

Last Edited by Spittin'Cesium on 05/09/2013 08:05 PM

Nice work, dettro! SOHO images are coming in now-here's the latest C3 image:

[link to sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov]

CME seen from STEREO Behind-
:5/9-bigCME:

Giant Filament Liftoff!-
:5/9-liftoff:

SOHO C3 Image of CME near West Limb-
:5/9-cmeC3:

Hi, jo, that is really bizarre. Must be a massive low pressure somewhere to pull in clouds from Montana & Colorado to the West coast. And there's a group of powerful-looking storms out-flowing from the TX Panhandle to the southeast. Here's the GOES Satellite images:

[link to goes.gsfc.nasa.gov]

Howdy, Cesium, STEREO B is now facing Sagittarius, ie. Galactic Center, so it's one of several Messier objects in the region (most likely a star cluster in the Milky way's galactic bulge). You may be able to pinpoint it with the nifty SECCHI Star-mapping Tool:

[link to secchi.nrl.navy.mil]