POLAR STORM WARNING: Two CMEs are heading for Earth. The plasma clouds were expelled from the sun on August 20-21 by a pair of erupting magnetic filaments. NOAA forecasters expect the CMEs to arrive on August 23-24, possibly sparking geomagnetic storms around the poles
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link to spaceweather.com]
CME projection on the 22nd
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link to iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov]
The long, cold, dark Antarctic winters allow the formation of polar stratospheric clouds, the particles of which form an ideal surface for ozone destruction. The returning sunlight provides energy to start the complex chemical reaction that results in ozone destruction. The ozone hole above Antarctica typically lasts about four months, from mid-August to late November.
Quoting: [link to www.nsf.gov] I love how spaceweather.com glams this up to make it sound like something "fun" and "good"
AURORA SEASON BEGINS: Around the Arctic Circle, summer is long and bright. Auroras vanish in the glow of the midnight sun. News flash: the auroras are back. "Tonight I saw the first auroras of the new season in Oulu, Finland," says Thomas Kast, who took this picture on August 22nd
With autumn approaching, Arctic nights are rapidly darkening. This means more auroras are in the offing. NOAA forecasters estimate a 30% - 45% chance of polar geomagnetic storms on August 22 - 23
Quoting: [link to spaceweather.com] i also love how they leave out how the "aurora season" is mainly due to the hole in the ozone :(
but anyways, because of this, any CME that are directed at Earth will have a bit more of an affect than they normally would. a CME that would cause a Kp5 in the spring time, can now be capable of producing up to Kp7 - Kp9
2011 and 2012, we seen most of the Strong geomagnetic storms in the Kp7+ range from the month of Aug through Dec
The strength of many of them surprised a lot of us because the CME that produced them did not look to be strong enough to cause such strong geomagnetic storming.
But when we remember the opening of the Antarctic ozone hole from mid-August to late November, thus allowing solar particles to freely flow into Earths atmosphere, it then all becomes a bit more clear of a pictureHello, NINz
everyone misses your presence here on a daily basis and I pray all is well with you. I'm somewhat loathe to debunk your 'ozone hole' theory, but forgive me for pointing out a few facts....
First, the ozone layer is many kilometers below the aurora, so hole or no-hole wouldn't effect the aurora one bit.
The ozone layer is mainly found in the lower portion of the stratosphere from approximately 20 to 30 kilometres (12 to 19 mi) above Earth, though the thickness varies seasonally and geographically.
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link to en.wikipedia.org]
Auroras result from emissions of photons in the Earth's upper atmosphere, above 80 km (50 mi), from ionized nitrogen atoms regaining an electron, and oxygen and nitrogen atoms returning from an excited state to ground state.They are ionized or excited by the collision of solar wind and magnetospheric particles being funneled down and accelerated along the Earth's magnetic field lines; excitation energy is lost by the emission of a photon, or by collision with another atom or molecule...
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link to en.wikipedia.org]
That being said, there IS an 'aurora season' for the ARCTIC near the equinoxes due to the Earth's axial tilt.
" The aurora borealis most often occurs near the equinoctes." "Geomagnetic storms that ignite auroras actually happen more often during the months around the equinoctes. It is not well understood why geomagnetic storms are tied to Earth's seasons while polar activity is not. But it is known that during spring and autumn, the interplanetary magnetic field and that of Earth link up. At the magnetopause, Earth's magnetic field points north. When Bz becomes large and negative (i.e., the IMF tilts south), it can partially cancel Earth's magnetic field at the point of contact. South-pointing Bzs open a door through which energy from the solar wind reaches Earth's inner magnetosphere.The peaking of Bz during this time is a result of geometry. The IMF comes from the Sun and is carried outward with the solar wind. The rotation of the Sun causes the IMF to have a spiral shape called the Parker spiral. The southward (and northward) excursions of Bz are greatest during April and October, when Earth's magnetic dipole axis is most closely aligned with the Parker spiral." [
link to en.wikipedia.org]
What amazes me about the ozone layer is that it's CREATED by solar activity AND it PROTECTS US from solar activity. Without the ozone layer life on Earth would most likely not exist. The ozone layer absorbs 97–99% of the Sun's medium-frequency ultraviolet light (from about 200 nm to 315 nm wavelength), which otherwise would potentially damage exposed life forms on Earth
"UV radiation capable of penetrating nitrogen is divided into three categories, based on its wavelength; these are referred to as UV-A (400–315 nm), UV-B (315–280 nm), and UV-C (280–100 nm).(snip)
Ozone is transparent to most UV-A, so most of this type of longer wavelength radiation reaches the surface and it constitutes most of the UV reaching the Earth. This type of UV radiation is significantly less harmful to DNA, although it may still potentially cause physical damage, indirect genetic damage, and skin cancer.(snip)
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link to en.wikipedia.org]
Secondly, Ozone Doom Cancelled. That's right the ozone hole is being self-repaired and even the UN Environmental Committee has forecast a complete recovery within 40 years.
"The latest satellite data indicate that in 2012, the hole in the ozone layer over Antarctica was smaller than it has ever been in the last 10 years.The new observations, announced by the European Space Agency (ESA) on Feb. 8, come from Europe’s Met Op weather satellite, which has an instrument specifically designed to sense ozone concentrations. The findings suggest that the phase-out of CFCs is working, the ESA reports.
CFCs persist in the atmosphere for a long time, so it may take until the middle of the century for ozone concentrations to rebound to 1960s levels, the ESA reports. However, the hole in the ozone over Antarctica should completely close in the next few decades."
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link to fellowshipofminds.wordpress.com]
I just wanted to shed some more light on this topic which could easily have a thread of its own. The rebound/healing of the ozone layer is truly a cause for worldwide celebration! Peace.
