SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily) | |
Isis One User ID: 14343270 United States 10/02/2013 09:27 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Nice catch Geo, I was wondering what that was on the purple image. Spread the word, change the collective conscious...... THERE IS MORE THAN ENOUGH OF EVERYTHING TO GO AROUND When you are undisciplined, the universe is extremely forgiving and when you are disciplined, the universe is extremely generous. Me One doesn't discover new lands without consenting to lose sight, for a very long time, of the shore. Andre Gide [link to www.godlikeproductions.com] |
Hugh M Eye User ID: 39479530 United States 10/02/2013 09:42 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Summary of the 3 major Kp index estimates for the peak of last nights storm: Quoting: madajs. IAGA/GFZ: Kp 7+ [link to www-app3.gfz-potsdam.de] : estimate with 11 of it's 13 observatories reported in so far, the estimate may decrease further as the final 2 observatories submit their readings in the next couple days USAF: Kp 6.67 [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov] NOAA: Kp 6 [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov] Thanks for the update and thanks to everyone who posted (or not) on the Storm thread last night. Over 20,000 page views ....not bad. Special thanks to you Madajs for seeing the sudden impulse alert when no one was expecting arrival for another 12 hours; and also to NINzrez for picking me up when I started passing out. All-in-all it was a pleasant group effort and a very interesting evening/morning. Kudos to all participants. Peace to Agent Truthseeker 66 if you're out there....please accept my apologies and come back to your suntard peeps here. Your input here was always appreciated. |
shadasonic User ID: 41520215 United States 10/02/2013 09:56 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Good catch there GeoStorm. Nice double-ribbon flare, too. I think Sol's cleaning house to get ready for entertaining company for Thanksgiving (ISON). We may see some big active regions and a pole-flip soon as well. I would agree HMI! “One of the saddest lessons of history is this: If we’ve been bamboozled long enough, we tend to reject any evidence of the bamboozle. We’re no longer interested in finding out the truth. The bamboozle has captured us. It’s simply too painful to acknowledge, even to ourselves, that we’ve been taken. Once you give a charlatan power over you, you almost never get it back.” – Carl Sagan |
Hugh M Eye User ID: 39479530 United States 10/03/2013 12:13 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | NOAA Solar Wind update is an essential (World) government service- Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... ACE data indicated the arrival of the CME associated with the September 29 filament eruption at about 02/0120 UTC. Solar wind speed quickly increased to over 600 km/s (peak speed 664 km/s at 02/0241 UTC) and imbedded magnetic fields were over 30 nT (peak IMF Bt 33 nT at 02/0424 UTC) with strong southward Bz (maximum southward deflection - 29 nT at 02/0425 UTC). IMF Phi data indicated a negative-polarity (Toward) solar sector during most of the period. .Forecast... The CME passage is expected to continue through Oct. 3 with elevated wind speed and increased variability of the magnetic fields. Solar wind conditions are expected to gradually return to background levels by Oct. 4. [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov] CME Impact Exposed Geosynchronus Satellites to Strong Solar Winds- New AR 1856- :10/3-1856: Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary SRS Number 276 Issued at 0030Z on 03 Oct 2013 Report compiled from data received at SWO on 02 Oct I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 02/2400Z Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type 1854 N05E04 290 0020 Hsx 01 01 Alpha 1855 S14W11 307 0130 Dsi 07 16 Beta 1856 N08E69 225 0050 Cao 02 01 Beta 1857 S06E66 228 0070 Hax 02 01 Alpha New AR1857- :10/3-1857: |
Hugh M Eye User ID: 39479530 United States 10/03/2013 12:53 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 21765116 Netherlands 10/03/2013 01:12 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | [link to iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080] Quoting: Hugh M Eye I also just noticed that they added ISON to their model. I've never seen them do that for a comet before. Methinks NASA is really feeding some of this ISON hysteria/frenzy, don't you? Kudos to Isis One (Is--On-? Hmmmm) for bringing ISON up in context of this recent CME! They removed it AGAIN. |
Hugh M Eye User ID: 39479530 United States 10/03/2013 02:05 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | [link to iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080] Quoting: Hugh M Eye I also just noticed that they added ISON to their model. I've never seen them do that for a comet before. Methinks NASA is really feeding some of this ISON hysteria/frenzy, don't you? Kudos to Isis One (Is--On-? Hmmmm) for bringing ISON up in context of this recent CME! They removed it AGAIN. Wow, they're awfully busy for a shut down government agency. Now I'm even more weirded-out by this. I would email NASA for an explanation but their email, twitters, etc. are symbolically shut down now, LOL. Thanks for bringing that to our attention. |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 17754867 United States 10/03/2013 02:16 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | [link to iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080] Quoting: Hugh M Eye I also just noticed that they added ISON to their model. I've never seen them do that for a comet before. Methinks NASA is really feeding some of this ISON hysteria/frenzy, don't you? Kudos to Isis One (Is--On-? Hmmmm) for bringing ISON up in context of this recent CME! They removed it AGAIN. Wow, they're awfully busy for a shut down government agency. Now I'm even more weirded-out by this. I would email NASA for an explanation but their email, twitters, etc. are symbolically shut down now, LOL. Thanks for bringing that to our attention. wtf? I saw it too.. now it's gone! Juno is still right by earth though... |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 47001552 United States 10/03/2013 06:30 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 47001552 United States 10/03/2013 06:36 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | I did a thread on this once but have you ever noticed when sun is active there are more vehicle accidents?? [link to hisz.rsoe.hu] |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 46766538 United States 10/03/2013 08:59 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Summary of the 3 major Kp index estimates for the peak of last nights storm: Quoting: madajs. IAGA/GFZ: Kp 7+ [link to www-app3.gfz-potsdam.de] : estimate with 11 of it's 13 observatories reported in so far, the estimate may decrease further as the final 2 observatories submit their readings in the next couple days USAF: Kp 6.67 [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov] NOAA: Kp 6 [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov] Thanks for the update and thanks to everyone who posted (or not) on the Storm thread last night. Over 20,000 page views ....not bad. Special thanks to you Madajs for seeing the sudden impulse alert when no one was expecting arrival for another 12 hours; and also to NINzrez for picking me up when I started passing out. All-in-all it was a pleasant group effort and a very interesting evening/morning. Kudos to all participants. Peace to Agent Truthseeker 66 if you're out there....please accept my apologies and come back to your suntard peeps here. Your input here was always appreciated. I'm here |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 47811753 Portugal 10/03/2013 09:49 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
Hugh M Eye User ID: 39479530 United States 10/03/2013 09:53 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | THE IMPENDING DEMISE OF COMET ISON ? Cometary scientist Ignacio Ferrin predicts doom for c/2012 S1/ISON.- " In view of the evidence presented above there is a 100% probability that comet ISON will disintegrate. The reason is that it exhibits the same SDE+U-shape signature as comets Hönig and Tabur that disintegrated. This dispels the notion that comets are not predictable. Comets announce that they are going to disintegrate by exhibiting the SDE+U-shape signature. " See all of his evidence and conclusions here: [link to astronomia.udea.edu.co] |
Hugh M Eye User ID: 39479530 United States 10/03/2013 09:59 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 47811753 Portugal 10/03/2013 10:02 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
WatcherJ User ID: 37673292 United States 10/03/2013 10:10 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | THE IMPENDING DEMISE OF COMET ISON ? Quoting: Hugh M Eye Cometary scientist Ignacio Ferrin predicts doom for c/2012 S1/ISON.- " In view of the evidence presented above there is a 100% probability that comet ISON will disintegrate. The reason is that it exhibits the same SDE+U-shape signature as comets Hönig and Tabur that disintegrated. This dispels the notion that comets are not predictable. Comets announce that they are going to disintegrate by exhibiting the SDE+U-shape signature. " See all of his evidence and conclusions here: [link to astronomia.udea.edu.co] To be fair, I think you should have pasted the entire paragraph of what you posted above, because it shows it's not as cut and dried as you quoted from the article. So I will. " In the case of comet Hönig it took 54 days after the SDE to disintegrate. Comet Tabur took about 90 days. Comet ISON is taking more than 9 months. Also, the very sharp discontinuity of slope at the SDE implies that this can not be an outburst. There is some fundamental physical process that goes on here that we do not understand. Or if this is an outburst, it is a very different outburst than the ones we have known up to now. The location of the Slope Discontinuity Event is also puzzling in the following diagram, Figure 9." go to [link to astronomia.udea.edu.co] to see the diagram. |
Hugh M Eye User ID: 39479530 United States 10/03/2013 10:18 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Solarsoft-SDO close-up movie of last night's filament eruption and CME in the SE. Most likely not geo-effective, but I can't see it because SOHO and STEREO weren't awake at the time; and NASA isn't filling in the missing SOHO data due to government shutdown, I guess. Note: the jerky motions are due to the satellite roll maneuver which happened during that time frame. [link to sdowww.lmsal.com] The other CME (the big one on the NW limb) seems to be headed straight at Comet ISON! We may see the comet brighten significantly in about 3 days (or possibly fall apart). iSWA Enlil Cone model cygnet: [link to iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080] |
madajs. User ID: 35856189 Canada 10/03/2013 10:27 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
TryToGetTheTruth User ID: 46927110 Canada 10/03/2013 10:35 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | THE IMPENDING DEMISE OF COMET ISON ? Quoting: Hugh M Eye Cometary scientist Ignacio Ferrin predicts doom for c/2012 S1/ISON.- " In view of the evidence presented above there is a 100% probability that comet ISON will disintegrate. The reason is that it exhibits the same SDE+U-shape signature as comets Hönig and Tabur that disintegrated. This dispels the notion that comets are not predictable. Comets announce that they are going to disintegrate by exhibiting the SDE+U-shape signature. " See all of his evidence and conclusions here: [link to astronomia.udea.edu.co] To be fair, I think you should have pasted the entire paragraph of what you posted above, because it shows it's not as cut and dried as you quoted from the article. So I will. " In the case of comet Hönig it took 54 days after the SDE to disintegrate. Comet Tabur took about 90 days. Comet ISON is taking more than 9 months. Also, the very sharp discontinuity of slope at the SDE implies that this can not be an outburst. There is some fundamental physical process that goes on here that we do not understand. Or if this is an outburst, it is a very different outburst than the ones we have known up to now. The location of the Slope Discontinuity Event is also puzzling in the following diagram, Figure 9." go to [link to astronomia.udea.edu.co] to see the diagram. In other words... they KNOW very little still Open mind required ! I am in SOUTHWESTERN ONTARIO, CANADA |
WatcherJ User ID: 37673292 United States 10/03/2013 10:39 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | THE IMPENDING DEMISE OF COMET ISON ? Quoting: Hugh M Eye Cometary scientist Ignacio Ferrin predicts doom for c/2012 S1/ISON.- " In view of the evidence presented above there is a 100% probability that comet ISON will disintegrate. The reason is that it exhibits the same SDE+U-shape signature as comets Hönig and Tabur that disintegrated. This dispels the notion that comets are not predictable. Comets announce that they are going to disintegrate by exhibiting the SDE+U-shape signature. " See all of his evidence and conclusions here: [link to astronomia.udea.edu.co] To be fair, I think you should have pasted the entire paragraph of what you posted above, because it shows it's not as cut and dried as you quoted from the article. So I will. " In the case of comet Hönig it took 54 days after the SDE to disintegrate. Comet Tabur took about 90 days. Comet ISON is taking more than 9 months. Also, the very sharp discontinuity of slope at the SDE implies that this can not be an outburst. There is some fundamental physical process that goes on here that we do not understand. Or if this is an outburst, it is a very different outburst than the ones we have known up to now. The location of the Slope Discontinuity Event is also puzzling in the following diagram, Figure 9." go to [link to astronomia.udea.edu.co] to see the diagram. In other words... they KNOW very little still Exactly what I thought when I read the entire article. It seems they may be onto something, but they have questions as Ison is acting somewhat differently than the two they compare it to as quoted in the above. So I think it's a best guess theory based on past events. |
WatcherJ User ID: 37673292 United States 10/03/2013 10:44 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Solarsoft-SDO close-up movie of last night's filament eruption and CME in the SE. Most likely not geo-effective, but I can't see it because SOHO and STEREO weren't awake at the time; and NASA isn't filling in the missing SOHO data due to government shutdown, I guess. Quoting: Hugh M Eye Note: the jerky motions are due to the satellite roll maneuver which happened during that time frame. [link to sdowww.lmsal.com] The other CME (the big one on the NW limb) seems to be headed straight at Comet ISON! We may see the comet brighten significantly in about 3 days (or possibly fall apart). iSWA Enlil Cone model cygnet: [link to iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080] and when you look at this Hugh just posted actually makes you question whether Ison could have been magnetically attached now to the sun that the above CME went towards ISON? or just another departing spot as always on the western limb of the sun. We'll never know without research from the now shut down NASA huh? |
shadasonic User ID: 41520215 United States 10/03/2013 10:56 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | [link to iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080] Quoting: Hugh M Eye I also just noticed that they added ISON to their model. I've never seen them do that for a comet before. Methinks NASA is really feeding some of this ISON hysteria/frenzy, don't you? Kudos to Isis One (Is--On-? Hmmmm) for bringing ISON up in context of this recent CME! They removed it AGAIN. Wow, they're awfully busy for a shut down government agency. Now I'm even more weirded-out by this. I would email NASA for an explanation but their email, twitters, etc. are symbolically shut down now, LOL. Thanks for bringing that to our attention. They are either trying to push this doom or trying to keep us from becoming freaked out? Very weird actions by Nasa(playing their part in the govt. bullshit) The last cme was dead on ison hit, probably was drawing to much attention , one way or the other. They are very busy for a 97% furlough Last Edited by Thinking out loud on 10/03/2013 10:58 AM “One of the saddest lessons of history is this: If we’ve been bamboozled long enough, we tend to reject any evidence of the bamboozle. We’re no longer interested in finding out the truth. The bamboozle has captured us. It’s simply too painful to acknowledge, even to ourselves, that we’ve been taken. Once you give a charlatan power over you, you almost never get it back.” – Carl Sagan |
zacksavage User ID: 3950479 United States 10/03/2013 11:09 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | They are either trying to push this doom or trying to keep us from becoming freaked out? Very weird actions by Nasa(playing their part in the govt. bullshit) The last cme was dead on ison hit, probably was drawing to much attention , one way or the other. Quoting: shadasonic They are very busy for a 97% furlough Hard to be kept from being freaked out with the Dark Pumpkin ever looming Shad. Z Free your mind,...your ass will follow. --- parliament funkadelic |
shadasonic User ID: 41520215 United States 10/03/2013 11:17 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | They are either trying to push this doom or trying to keep us from becoming freaked out? Very weird actions by Nasa(playing their part in the govt. bullshit) The last cme was dead on ison hit, probably was drawing to much attention , one way or the other. Quoting: shadasonic They are very busy for a 97% furlough Hard to be kept from being freaked out with the Dark Pumpkin ever looming Shad. Z :end pull: LOL nice to see you Z! “One of the saddest lessons of history is this: If we’ve been bamboozled long enough, we tend to reject any evidence of the bamboozle. We’re no longer interested in finding out the truth. The bamboozle has captured us. It’s simply too painful to acknowledge, even to ourselves, that we’ve been taken. Once you give a charlatan power over you, you almost never get it back.” – Carl Sagan |
Hugh M Eye User ID: 39479530 United States 10/03/2013 11:19 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | THE IMPENDING DEMISE OF COMET ISON ? Quoting: Hugh M Eye Cometary scientist Ignacio Ferrin predicts doom for c/2012 S1/ISON.- " In view of the evidence presented above there is a 100% probability that comet ISON will disintegrate. The reason is that it exhibits the same SDE+U-shape signature as comets Hönig and Tabur that disintegrated. This dispels the notion that comets are not predictable. Comets announce that they are going to disintegrate by exhibiting the SDE+U-shape signature. " See all of his evidence and conclusions here: [link to astronomia.udea.edu.co] To be fair, I think you should have pasted the entire paragraph of what you posted above, because it shows it's not as cut and dried as you quoted from the article. So I will. " In the case of comet Hönig it took 54 days after the SDE to disintegrate. Comet Tabur took about 90 days. Comet ISON is taking more than 9 months. Also, the very sharp discontinuity of slope at the SDE implies that this can not be an outburst. There is some fundamental physical process that goes on here that we do not understand. Or if this is an outburst, it is a very different outburst than the ones we have known up to now. The location of the Slope Discontinuity Event is also puzzling in the following diagram, Figure 9." go to [link to astronomia.udea.edu.co] to see the diagram. Howdy, WatcherJ, I appreciate the post. Please note that I added the question mark to the title....although the author is 100% certain, I'm a bit confused by some of these graphs and I'm no expert on comets' light curves. NASA still seems to be pushing this 'Comet of the Century' meme, but many of the amateur reports, astro-bloggers, and now this Columbian astronomer have been pointing out the weaker-than-expected showing of ISON thus far; especially since it passed the so-called 'frost-line'. I myself have always thought that ISON would be ripped apart as it nears perihelion. Mostly it's just a gut-feeling and my respect for the Sun's awesome power. Also, the comet will pass within the Roche Limit, so if it survives perihelion it will be against all odds. "Explanation- Typically, the Roche limit applies to a satellite disintegrating due to tidal forces induced by its primary, the body about which it orbits. Parts of the satellite that are closer to the primary are attracted by stronger gravity from the primary, whereas parts farther away are repelled by stronger centrifugal force from the satellite's curved orbit. Some real satellites, both natural and artificial, can orbit within their Roche limits because they are held together by forces other than gravitation. Jupiter's moon Metis and Saturn's moon Pan are examples of such satellites, which hold together because of their tensile strength (that is, they are solid and not easily pulled apart). In extreme cases, objects resting on the surface of such a satellite could actually be lifted away by tidal forces. A weaker satellite, such as a comet, could be broken up when it passes within its Roche limit." [link to en.wikipedia.org] Recent (10/01) images of comet ISON: [link to brucegary.net] |
zacksavage User ID: 3950479 United States 10/03/2013 11:29 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | They are either trying to push this doom or trying to keep us from becoming freaked out? Very weird actions by Nasa(playing their part in the govt. bullshit) The last cme was dead on ison hit, probably was drawing to much attention , one way or the other. Quoting: shadasonic They are very busy for a 97% furlough It is quite troubling to see NASA gutted by Obama and now this 97 percent furlough thing after the sequester crap. It seems like all they do up there in Washington is posture and lie. Was the last cme really a dead on hit toward ISON? Z Last Edited by zacksavage on 10/03/2013 11:30 AM Free your mind,...your ass will follow. --- parliament funkadelic |
Hugh M Eye User ID: 39479530 United States 10/03/2013 11:33 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | BREAKING NEWS- The first images of ISON from Mars' HiRise mission. Very unimpressive pics IMO. [link to www.uahirise.org] Read the press release here: [link to www.uahirise.org] Comet ISON Observering Campaign: [link to www.isoncampaign.org] |
zacksavage User ID: 3950479 United States 10/03/2013 11:37 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | BREAKING NEWS- Quoting: Hugh M Eye The first images of ISON from Mars' HiRise mission. Very unimpressive pics IMO. [link to www.uahirise.org] Read the press release here: [link to www.uahirise.org] Comet ISON Observering Campaign: [link to www.isoncampaign.org] Cool Hugh,...thank you kindly. Z Free your mind,...your ass will follow. --- parliament funkadelic |
Hugh M Eye User ID: 39479530 United States 10/03/2013 11:39 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | They are either trying to push this doom or trying to keep us from becoming freaked out? Very weird actions by Nasa(playing their part in the govt. bullshit) The last cme was dead on ison hit, probably was drawing to much attention , one way or the other. Quoting: shadasonic They are very busy for a 97% furlough It is quite troubling to see NASA gutted by Obama and now this 97 percent furlough thing after the sequester crap. It seems like all they do up there in Washington is posture and lie. Was the last cme really a dead on hit toward ISON? Z Howdy, Z, yes, er..uh..maybe, haha. ISON just passed Mars which is where that CME is headed. I don't have a definitive 3D map showing the position of ISON and the CME in relation to the ecliptic plane. If the comet is presently near or slightly north of the ecliptic it will probably get slammed by this energetic CME. |
zacksavage User ID: 3950479 United States 10/03/2013 11:48 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Howdy, Z, yes, er..uh..maybe, haha. ISON just passed Mars which is where that CME is headed. I don't have a definitive 3D map showing the position of ISON and the CME in relation to the ecliptic plane. If the comet is presently near or slightly north of the ecliptic it will probably get slammed by this energetic CME. Quoting: Hugh M Eye Thanks Hugh, I was checking out the pics of ISON you posted and am left wondering why in the hell they hyped this thing so much? Holmes was 10 times better in visibility and whatnot,... and received little to zero build up or main stream press. Hm,... Z Last Edited by zacksavage on 10/03/2013 11:56 AM Free your mind,...your ass will follow. --- parliament funkadelic |