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USGS Welcomes Earthquake Prediction Council’s Confirmation That Scientific Basis for New Madrid Hazard is Sound

 
bootsnbolts
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04/25/2011 09:56 AM
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USGS Welcomes Earthquake Prediction Council’s Confirmation That Scientific Basis for New Madrid Hazard is Sound
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USGS Welcomes Earthquake Prediction Council’s Confirmation That Scientific Basis for New Madrid Hazard is Sound
Released: 4/25/2011 9:00:00 AM
Contact Information:
U.S. Department of the Interior, U.S. Geological Survey
Office of Communication
119 National Center
Reston, VA 20192 Dr. Michael Blanpied 1-click interview
Phone: 703-648-6696

Clarice Nassif Ransom 1-click interview
Phone: 703-648-4299


The level of seismic hazards posed by the New Madrid Seismic Zone, along with the uncertainties that still remain, is the subject of a new report by the National Earthquake Prediction Evaluation Council (NEPEC).

The report was recently presented to USGS Director Marcia McNutt and it comes during the Bicentennial of the 1811-1812 New Madrid Earthquakes that struck the central United States.

“I commend NEPEC for assembling an independent expert panel to weigh scientific evidence regarding the threat posed by large earthquakes in the New Madrid Seismic Zone,” said USGS Director Marcia McNutt. “This is an important issue that has spurred decades of excellent research on the large, yet enigmatic, earthquakes of 1811 and 1812; the geologic evidence of similar earthquakes in previous centuries; and how our modern cities and towns would be shaken if similar earthquakes were to occur today.”

The report concluded that:

* The New Madrid Seismic Zone represents a significant hazard for large earthquakes that would cause widespread damage.
* The scientific community does not share the view of some individuals that the region has “shut down” in its production of large earthquakes.
* The region’s seismic hazard must be accounted for in urban planning and development.
* The USGS national seismic hazard maps remain a good current estimate of overall hazard and should continue to be used until new maps replace them.
* Significant uncertainties include:
o The actual level of effects of a major earthquake
o What magnitude earthquakes are likely
o How often will future earthquakes occur in the New Madrid Seismic Zone

The report is the result of an independent panel of experts, chaired by Professor John Vidale of the University of Washington. NEPEC sponsored the panel.

NEPEC was congressionally established in legislation authorizing the four-agency National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program. The Council provides advice and recommendations to the USGS Director on earthquake predictions and related scientific research.

The report is posted on the Council’s website. More information on earthquake hazards can be found on the USGS website.


[link to www.usgs.gov]
when was the last time YOU dug a ditch, baby? -oingo boingo
bootsnbolts (OP)

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04/25/2011 10:11 AM
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Re: USGS Welcomes Earthquake Prediction Council’s Confirmation That Scientific Basis for New Madrid Hazard is Sound
so yes...they're admitting there's a problem.

i've come to the conclusion that there is not one safe place on the planet right now. i'll take my cascadia subduction zone.
when was the last time YOU dug a ditch, baby? -oingo boingo
ookie

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04/25/2011 10:46 AM
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Re: USGS Welcomes Earthquake Prediction Council’s Confirmation That Scientific Basis for New Madrid Hazard is Sound
I've done a little research on this area and learned there will be more quakes there. But not for a while. The evidence points to a regular cycle of earthquakes on the New Madrid every 500 years. So we have another 300 years to wait for the next one.

The New Madrid is a place under immense stress. It is trying desperately to spread apart. It's trying to make a new ocean and split this continent in two. But it can't because there is no subduction area. From the mid-atlantic ridge to California there is no subduction zone. There is another plate at Cali, but it is moving north, not subducting. It doesn't start subducting until Oregon. There is a gap from Oregon to South America where no subduction is happening.

That is squeezing the continent together. So it's being squeezed while it's being pulled apart at the same time. To us it appears to be not moving or just barely. I think the rate of spreading there is one millimeter a year.


Eventually a subduction zone will form. Most probably the one in the Caribbean will extend up the East Coast of the USA. When that happens the New Madrid will be free to spread and then you can expect things to really heat up in that area.

Give it 25 million years or so and it will be rocking and rolling. Until then, don't expect much.
bootsnbolts (OP)

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04/25/2011 11:44 AM
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Re: USGS Welcomes Earthquake Prediction Council’s Confirmation That Scientific Basis for New Madrid Hazard is Sound
wrong.

executive report, JUST ISSUED this morning on usgs.

you have to google:

nmsz_expert_panel_report

there's no direct link, as the report is in doc form.
when was the last time YOU dug a ditch, baby? -oingo boingo
bootsnbolts (OP)

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04/25/2011 11:47 AM
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Re: USGS Welcomes Earthquake Prediction Council’s Confirmation That Scientific Basis for New Madrid Hazard is Sound
[link to news.nationalgeographic.com]

some goodies on africa subduction zone. :)

right now, all scientists are finding is that there was SO MUCH they didn't know.
when was the last time YOU dug a ditch, baby? -oingo boingo
bootsnbolts (OP)

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04/25/2011 02:06 PM
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Re: USGS Welcomes Earthquake Prediction Council’s Confirmation That Scientific Basis for New Madrid Hazard is Sound
NMFZ: very good article!

[link to www.lewrockwell.com]

article: jan 6, 2011
when was the last time YOU dug a ditch, baby? -oingo boingo

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