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TWC Dr. Greg Forbes' TOR:CON (Tornado Forecast) for DANGEROUS Tornado Outbreak 4/26-4/28

 
Watch the Weather!
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04/26/2011 05:28 PM
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TWC Dr. Greg Forbes' TOR:CON (Tornado Forecast) for DANGEROUS Tornado Outbreak 4/26-4/28
Several states are already under multiple tornado warnings this afternoon and today's outbreak in many states will continue well into the early morning hours.

Then, more of the same tomorrow and Thursday too.


TOR:CON values are all the way up to NINE in somes states today and tomorrow.

[link to www.weather.com]

Updated: April 26, 2011 1:45 pm EST

The Weather Channel (TWC) Exclusive TOR:CON index
by Dr. Greg Forbes, TWC Severe Weather & Tornado Expert

What is the TOR:CON Index?

the TOR:CON index is an estimate of the likelihood of tornado activity within a given time period.

TOR:CON Value Descriptions

8: High probability of a tornado
6: Moderate possibility of a tornado
4: Low chance of a tornado nearby, but hail and/or strong wind gusts possible
2: Very low chance of a tornado, but hail and/or strong wind gusts possible
0: Near-zero chance of a tornado or a severe thunderstorm

Areas listed below have an above-average threat of having severe thunderstorms with damaging winds, hail, and/or tornadoes for the specified days.

Severe Weather Overview

All ingredients are coming together for a dangerous tornado situation in northeast TX, south AR as a surface low forms in TX, wind shear is favorable, instability is very large, and an upper level jet stream is blasting into the area. Farther north and east, lesser-instability and wind shear will bring severe thunderstorms and an isolated tornado threat. Severe thunderstorm and tornado outbreak will continue Wednesday and Thursday as the cold front marches east.

TOR:CON Predictions

Forecast for Tuesday, April 26

AL north and west-central - 3
AR north - 6
AR south - 9
GA north - 2
IL south - 3
IN - 4
KY west - 5
KYcentral and east - 3 to 4
LA north - 8
LA central - 4
MI southeast - 3 to 4
MO southeast - 4
MS northwest - 8
MS northeast - 5
MS central - 4
NC west - 2
NY west - 3
NY east-central - 2 to 3
OH west - 4
OH east - 3 to 4
OK west and south-central - 2
OK southeast - 6
PA west - 3
PA northeast - 2 to 3
TN west - 7
TN middle - 5
TN east - 3 to 4
TX northeast - 9
TX north-central - 4
VA southwest - 2
WV - 2
other areas - 2 or less


Forecast for Wednesday, April 27

AL north - 8 to 9
AL south - 6
AR south-central and east - 3 to 4
DC - 2 to 3
FL west panhandle - 4 to 5
FL east panhandle - 3 to 4 night
GA northwest - 6
GA west-central - 4
GA northeast - 3
GA central and south - 4 night
IL south - 3
IN south and east-central - 4
KY east - 7
KY west - 4
LA west - 3 to 4
LA east - 4 to 5
MD west - 2 to 3
MI - southeast 2
MO southeast - 2 to 3
MS west and southeast - 4
MS east -central and northeast- 9
NC west - 3
NC central - 3 night
NY - 2 to 3
OH south - 5
OH north - 3
PA - 3
SC west and central - 3
SC east - 3 night
TN middle - 8
TN west - 4 to 5
TN east - 6
VA west and central - 3
VT - 2
WV west - 5
WV east - 3


Forecast for Thursday, April 28
DC - 2 to 3
DE -- 2 to 3
FL north and central peninsula - 2 to 3
GA southeast - 2 to 3
NJ - 2 to 3
NC northeast - 4
NC central and southeast - 2 to 3
NY central and east - 2 to 3
MD - 2 to 3
PA east half - 2 to 3
SC east half - 2 to 3
VA southeast - 4
VA central and northeast - 2 to 3
VT west - 2 to 3
Anonymous Coward
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04/26/2011 05:36 PM
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Re: TWC Dr. Greg Forbes' TOR:CON (Tornado Forecast) for DANGEROUS Tornado Outbreak 4/26-4/28
4-7 the next few days... =\ not lookin good. Hate to be in a 9 section, god forbid 10
Anonymous Coward
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04/26/2011 05:37 PM
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Re: TWC Dr. Greg Forbes' TOR:CON (Tornado Forecast) for DANGEROUS Tornado Outbreak 4/26-4/28
bumpbump
Anonymous Coward (OP)
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04/26/2011 05:42 PM
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Re: TWC Dr. Greg Forbes' TOR:CON (Tornado Forecast) for DANGEROUS Tornado Outbreak 4/26-4/28
4-5 today and tomorrow for me (northwestern KY).

I already had plenty of "fun" last evening and until 4 a.m. tracking the tornadic storms come my way that destroyed Vilonia, AR yesterday.

When they finally arrived, it was 4:15 a.m. and two tornado warnings came within 5 miles of my home.

My husband made fun of me for staying up. Whatever.

I will be up again tonight - I can already tell.

This severely tornadic April from hell is REALLY getting old.
Kristina

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04/26/2011 05:44 PM

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Re: TWC Dr. Greg Forbes' TOR:CON (Tornado Forecast) for DANGEROUS Tornado Outbreak 4/26-4/28
I will be watching tomorrow VERY closely as I live in a "9 section." I hope everyone in the path of these storms take them very seriously!
DOOM better not interrupt my Walking Dead!!
Anonymous Coward (OP)
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04/26/2011 06:11 PM
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Re: TWC Dr. Greg Forbes' TOR:CON (Tornado Forecast) for DANGEROUS Tornado Outbreak 4/26-4/28
Link to National Map at The Weather Channel (TWC) showing counties from texas to Michigan that are under severe Thunderstrom Warning or Tornado Warning:

[link to www.weather.com]

Link to Map of Severe thunderstorm Warnings and Tornado Warnings in Arkansas, Tennessee, & Kentucky:

[link to www.weather.com]

There are already incredibly dangerous conditions in Arkansas: Counties under Tornado Warning in AR right now:

[link to www.weather.com]

Arkansas (Alert #1)
Arkansas (Alert #2)
Conway
Cross
Desha
Grant
Jefferson (Alert #1)
Jefferson (Alert #2)
Jefferson (Alert #3)
Lee
Lincoln
Logan (Alert #1)
Logan (Alert #2)
Lonoke (Alert #1)
Lonoke (Alert #2)
Monroe
Perry
Phillips
Prairie
Pulaski (Alert #1)
Pulaski (Alert #2)
Saint Francis
Saline
Scott (Alert #1)
Scott (Alert #2)
Yell (Alert #1)
Yell (Alert #2)


There are 8 counties in Kentucky under Tornado Warning right now:

[link to www.weather.com]

Daviess (Alert #1)
Daviess (Alert #2)
Daviess (Alert #3)
Fulton
Henderson
Hopkins (Alert #1)
Hopkins (Alert #2)
Mc Lean (Alert #1)
Mc Lean (Alert #2)
Mc Lean (Alert #3)
Muhlenberg
Trigg
Webster
LA-LA-LA

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04/26/2011 06:24 PM
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Re: TWC Dr. Greg Forbes' TOR:CON (Tornado Forecast) for DANGEROUS Tornado Outbreak 4/26-4/28
wow, what a nightmare!
Anonymous Coward
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04/26/2011 06:25 PM
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Re: TWC Dr. Greg Forbes' TOR:CON (Tornado Forecast) for DANGEROUS Tornado Outbreak 4/26-4/28
Quote: OP:
"There are already incredibly dangerous conditions in Arkansas..."
Check those links! Truly crazy and dangerous, please send warnings if you can folks!
Anonymous Coward (OP)
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04/26/2011 06:58 PM
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Re: TWC Dr. Greg Forbes' TOR:CON (Tornado Forecast) for DANGEROUS Tornado Outbreak 4/26-4/28
Michigan counties under tornado warning now:

[link to www.weather.com]

Tornado Warning for:
Ionia
Montcalm

Arkansas - per Dr. Forbes Tornado Expert at the Weather Channel: "All quadrants of Arkansasare in a "Particularly Dangerous Situation" ("PDS", VERY rare); counties in AR under tornado warning now:

Tornado Warning for:
Arkansas (Alert #1)
Arkansas (Alert #2)
Arkansas (Alert #3)
Crawford
Crittenden (Alert #1)
Crittenden (Alert #2)
Desha (Alert #1)
Desha (Alert #2)
Jefferson (Alert #1)
Jefferson (Alert #2)
Lee
Lincoln
Logan
Lonoke
Monroe (Alert #1)
Monroe (Alert #2)
Monroe (Alert #3)
Phillips (Alert #1)
Phillips (Alert #2)
Pope
Prairie
Saint Francis
Sebastian
Woodruff
Yell



Memphis, TN: per Dr. Forbes: "A confirmed tornado on the ground is coming your way".
Anonymous Coward (OP)
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04/26/2011 07:00 PM
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Re: TWC Dr. Greg Forbes' TOR:CON (Tornado Forecast) for DANGEROUS Tornado Outbreak 4/26-4/28
Arkansas' only nuclear reactor is in the path of a large tornado NOW.

GLP thread:

Thread: Arkansas's only Nuclear Reactor in path of Large Tornado
Anonymous Coward (OP)
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04/26/2011 07:09 PM
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Re: TWC Dr. Greg Forbes' TOR:CON (Tornado Forecast) for DANGEROUS Tornado Outbreak 4/26-4/28
Memphis, TN: per Dr. Forbes: "A confirmed large rain wrapped tornado on the ground is on its way into Memphis, TN from Arkansas NOW".

Memphis is under tornado warning NOW.

[link to www.weather.com]
Anonymous Coward (OP)
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04/26/2011 07:10 PM
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Re: TWC Dr. Greg Forbes' TOR:CON (Tornado Forecast) for DANGEROUS Tornado Outbreak 4/26-4/28
bump
Lilhippychic

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04/26/2011 07:12 PM
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Re: TWC Dr. Greg Forbes' TOR:CON (Tornado Forecast) for DANGEROUS Tornado Outbreak 4/26-4/28
I'm in a 9 and it's getting dark out
hiding
"I yam what I yam and that's all that I yam" ~ Popeye
Anonymous Coward
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04/26/2011 07:18 PM
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Re: TWC Dr. Greg Forbes' TOR:CON (Tornado Forecast) for DANGEROUS Tornado Outbreak 4/26-4/28
ThaT'S A LOT OF twistershiding
Anonymous Coward
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04/26/2011 07:31 PM
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Re: TWC Dr. Greg Forbes' TOR:CON (Tornado Forecast) for DANGEROUS Tornado Outbreak 4/26-4/28
Got a funny feeling about the weather are we going to see a global earth storm? Radar looks strange for us
Anonymous Coward (OP)
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04/26/2011 07:56 PM
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Re: TWC Dr. Greg Forbes' TOR:CON (Tornado Forecast) for DANGEROUS Tornado Outbreak 4/26-4/28
We've got a supercell tornado barrelling down on the metro Louisville, KY area right now.

Confirmed tornado on the ground a county and a half away from Louisville and moving Northeast.

Louisville is immediately northeast of the tornado's current position.

It is moving across Grayson county and moving into Breckinridge county.

Rough River lake to Leitchfield, KY is ground zero right now.

This super cell is aloft to 50,000 ft, is contacting the jet stream, has a large hail core, and is laying down golfball to softball size hail.

It has a history of causing damage downstate KY already.

Hail is extending into eastern Hardin county.

per WLKY TV Louisville storm analyzer 3D suoer doppler radar.

[link to www.wlky.com]
Anonymous Coward
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04/26/2011 08:00 PM
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Re: TWC Dr. Greg Forbes' TOR:CON (Tornado Forecast) for DANGEROUS Tornado Outbreak 4/26-4/28
it's twisters, flooding & hailing-head for the hills!
Anonymous Coward (OP)
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04/26/2011 08:01 PM
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Re: TWC Dr. Greg Forbes' TOR:CON (Tornado Forecast) for DANGEROUS Tornado Outbreak 4/26-4/28
Got a funny feeling about the weather are we going to see a global earth storm? Radar looks strange for us
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 1358359


What state/region are you in?
Anonymous Coward
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04/26/2011 08:04 PM
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Re: TWC Dr. Greg Forbes' TOR:CON (Tornado Forecast) for DANGEROUS Tornado Outbreak 4/26-4/28
FinalCountdown

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04/26/2011 08:09 PM
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Re: TWC Dr. Greg Forbes' TOR:CON (Tornado Forecast) for DANGEROUS Tornado Outbreak 4/26-4/28
4-5 today and tomorrow for me (northwestern KY).

I already had plenty of "fun" last evening and until 4 a.m. tracking the tornadic storms come my way that destroyed Vilonia, AR yesterday.

When they finally arrived, it was 4:15 a.m. and two tornado warnings came within 5 miles of my home.

My husband made fun of me for staying up. Whatever.

I will be up again tonight - I can already tell.

This severely tornadic April from hell is REALLY getting old.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 919411


I feel for you guys...I'm in SW MO and I've spent my share of late nights up watching for tornados...been lucky so far...had a little one come through my backyard once though....
"Women who seek equality with men lack ambition."
Anonymous Coward (OP)
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04/26/2011 08:11 PM
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Re: TWC Dr. Greg Forbes' TOR:CON (Tornado Forecast) for DANGEROUS Tornado Outbreak 4/26-4/28
A rotating wallcloud supercellular tornado like you see the storm chasers go after on the Oklahoma Plains is being tracked by the National Weather Service out of Louisville, KY.

It is presently over northeastern sections of Grayson County, KY on the northern side of the town of Leitchfield, KY, near Clarkson, and is moving into Breckinridge and Hardin counties in KY and is moving northeast at 25-30 mph.

It has a history of putting down tornadoes downstate, KY.

It is in the process of cycling and restrengthening.

It is heading into Big Clifty, KY and Clarkson, KY near state Hwy 54 and along the Bluegrass Parkway.

[link to www.wlky.com]
snark

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04/26/2011 08:13 PM

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Re: TWC Dr. Greg Forbes' TOR:CON (Tornado Forecast) for DANGEROUS Tornado Outbreak 4/26-4/28
UGH I'm tired from staying awake because of last night's storms and tonight's are supposed to be worse. And are gonna hit in the middle of the night. Sigh.
T For Texas, T For Tennessee!


The virtue of courage is a prerequisite for the practice of all other virtues, because otherwise one is virtuous only when virtue has no cost. There are times when something needs to be done, and yet we know that if we step up and do this needful thing, we will pay a heavy personal price. -C.S. Lewis
Anonymous Coward (OP)
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04/26/2011 08:15 PM
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Re: TWC Dr. Greg Forbes' TOR:CON (Tornado Forecast) for DANGEROUS Tornado Outbreak 4/26-4/28
Supercellular tornado moving NE across state Hwy 259 just north of Leitchfirld, KY.
Anonymous Coward (OP)
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04/26/2011 08:21 PM
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Re: TWC Dr. Greg Forbes' TOR:CON (Tornado Forecast) for DANGEROUS Tornado Outbreak 4/26-4/28
Leitchfield, KY

Big Clifty, KY

Elizabethtown, KY

ALL take shelter now.

Tornado is confirmed on the ground.

I see it on webcam from stormchasers being broadcast on WLKY TV out of Louisville, KY.
Anonymous Coward (OP)
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04/26/2011 08:23 PM
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Re: TWC Dr. Greg Forbes' TOR:CON (Tornado Forecast) for DANGEROUS Tornado Outbreak 4/26-4/28
Tornado will be in Eastview, KY within 5 minutes.

Take cover now.
VulpesInculta (PTM)

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04/26/2011 08:23 PM
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Re: TWC Dr. Greg Forbes' TOR:CON (Tornado Forecast) for DANGEROUS Tornado Outbreak 4/26-4/28
As if my sleep wasn't crappy enough, good thing Georgia is mostly in the clear according to TWC's Tornado Index. Still gonna keep an eye on it myself.
Always in a moment of extreme danger things can be done which had previously been thought impossible.
- Field Marshal Erwin Rommel
Anonymous Coward (OP)
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04/26/2011 08:30 PM
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Re: TWC Dr. Greg Forbes' TOR:CON (Tornado Forecast) for DANGEROUS Tornado Outbreak 4/26-4/28
Tornado on the ground 5 mi north of Clarkson reported by the public 5 min ago.

100 mph winds indicated by super doppler radar.

Tornado is moving out of Grayson County and into Hardin County.

Hardin, KY is under tornado warning NOW.
Anonymous Coward
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04/26/2011 08:31 PM
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Re: TWC Dr. Greg Forbes' TOR:CON (Tornado Forecast) for DANGEROUS Tornado Outbreak 4/26-4/28
Lightning off the East coast (Florida on up); was there yesterday; still there today; if anything, its intensified

[link to www.intellicast.com]
Anonymous Coward
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04/26/2011 08:34 PM
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Re: TWC Dr. Greg Forbes' TOR:CON (Tornado Forecast) for DANGEROUS Tornado Outbreak 4/26-4/28
Lightning interacts with radiation; makes it all better.
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04/26/2011 08:35 PM
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Re: TWC Dr. Greg Forbes' TOR:CON (Tornado Forecast) for DANGEROUS Tornado Outbreak 4/26-4/28
Purges it from the air; strange, no?
Anonymous Coward (OP)
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04/26/2011 08:50 PM
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Re: TWC Dr. Greg Forbes' TOR:CON (Tornado Forecast) for DANGEROUS Tornado Outbreak 4/26-4/28
Heads up. barns being blown over, trees uprooted.

Tornado will next be in:

Glendale 3 min

Tonieville 15 min

Mathers Mill 19 min

Hodgenville 20 min

White City 28 min

Tornado is moving east at 35 mph.

Northwestern Larue County, KY and eastern Hardin County, KY heads up.

E-town will be getting sizeable hail very soon.

The Tornado is about to pass from Hardin County into Larue County, KY.

The tornado appears to be passing just to the south of Elizabethtown, KY.

Confirmed touchdowns in Ohio and Grayson counties.

Confirmed funnel cloud in Hardin County.

WLKY Louisville, KY reporting.

[link to www.wlky.com]