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Will Syria's Bashar al-Assad engage Israel in a war?

 
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 1142550
Israel
04/27/2011 10:54 AM
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Will Syria's Bashar al-Assad engage Israel in a war?
What are the chances that Syria's Bashar al-Assad will engage Israel in a war, to distract the world and their local civilians, to save his regime? To me, this look like a strong probability, specifically if the UN decides to do what it did Libya, to do to Syria "a no fly zone".
Anonymous Coward
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United States
04/27/2011 10:55 AM
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Re: Will Syria's Bashar al-Assad engage Israel in a war?
Bashar is a pussy and Israel's favorite dictator. He won't fight Israel.
Anonymous Coward (OP)
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Israel
04/28/2011 11:28 AM
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Re: Will Syria's Bashar al-Assad engage Israel in a war?
For Syria's Allies, Attacking Israel Could Pay Off

The worsening crisis battering Syria threatens more than the regime of President Bashar al-Assad. It also carries with it the potential to recast the balance of power in the Middle East, with damaging results for Iran and conceivably disastrous consequences for its allies -- Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza. Given the magnitude of the stakes for these players, one can argue that it would make strategic sense from their perspective to try to lure Israel into a more intense armed conflict: not an all-out war, but clashes powerful enough to garner headlines and capture the attention and emotions of the Arab world.

The wars Israel fought against Hezbollah in 2006 and against Hamas in 2008-2009 showed that a conflict with Israel all but ensures a passionate groundswell of support in the Middle East. The players could then leverage that intensity of emotion to turn the tide of events in their favor. The battlefield experience, however, also showed that a sustained military encounter with Israel can take a costly toll in lives, ammunition and infrastructure. Hamas and Hezbollah, not to mention Syria, would rather not see their arsenals destroyed. But they could benefit enormously from the resurgence of support that would follow a dramatic news-making, face-to-face dust up with what they call the "Zionist entity."

Achieving such a delicate balance -- somewhere between serious clash and war -- requires a degree of calibration that is all but impossible in the unpredictable dynamics of armed conflict. And yet, there is ample evidence that segments of Hamas, probably encouraged by Iran and Syria, have already begun to deploy this push-and-pull of provocation and restraint.

For the Syrian regime, it probably comes too late. Now that the Assad government's heavy handed methods against protesters have left a reported 400 dead, it is much less likely that the Syrian population will be distracted by Israel. If Syria is to win this test of wills with the opposition, it will not do it by drawing attention to an external enemy.

For Iran, Hamas and Hezbollah, however, the tactic could still produce results.

Iran has struggled with its response to the Syrian uprising, because it undermines Tehran's narrative of the events unfolding in the Middle East. Tehran has expressed support for Arab uprisings in places such as Egypt, Bahrain and Yemen, arguing that the uprisings mimic the Iranian revolution of 1979. But Syria's Assad is Iran's closest ally. So while Iran has praised pro-democracy activists everywhere in the Arab world, it has berated Syria's anti-regime activists, claiming they act at the behest of Israel and the U.S. Tehran would be well-served by images of heavily armed Israeli forces firing on Palestinians. Rather than being cast as the protector of a dictator like Assad, Tehran could again take the stage as the defender of the Palestinians.

In addition to perhaps forestalling the loss of Assad's patronage, renewed battles between Hamas and Israel would also raise Hamas' standing among Palestinians, who have been pressuring the two main Palestinian political organizations, Fatah and Hamas, to reconcile. Indeed, Hamas and Fatah announced Wednesday that they have reached a preliminary agreement that would pave the way for an interim unity government and subsequent parliamentary and presidential elections.

Fighting Israel could also bring about a change in Egypt's position regarding Gaza's southern border crossing into Egypt. With Hosni Mubarak, the staunchly anti-Hamas former Egyptian president, now out of power, Israel can no longer be sure that Egypt will keep Gaza's southern border sealed, as it has during past outbreaks of fighting. This time, Cairo, which brokered the announced reconciliation deal, might just help Hamas, at the very least by making it easier for weapons to flow from the south into the Gaza Strip.

The tactic clearly puts Israeli leaders on the spot. They know that starting a war at this crucial moment in the history of the Middle East could be grievously counterproductive. Israeli strategists are familiar with all the reasons that Iran, Syria, Hamas and Hezbollah have for wanting a confrontation. From Israel's perspective, they constitute the very reasons to prevent such a conflict from flaring up. But the recent series of attacks against Israeli civilians showed how political pressure can build on Israeli officials when the population is under fire.

While anti-regime protesters in Syria keep their focus on unseating the Assad regime, their uprising could end up causing explosions far from Damascus.

To read more: [link to www.worldpoliticsreview.com]
Anonymous Coward
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United States
04/29/2011 01:35 AM
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Re: Will Syria's Bashar al-Assad engage Israel in a war?
anything could happen at this point. expect the unexpected when you least expect it.
Dont vote

User ID: 1361486
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04/29/2011 01:39 AM
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Re: Will Syria's Bashar al-Assad engage Israel in a war?
What are the chances that Syria's Bashar al-Assad will engage Israel in a war, to distract the world and their local civilians, to save his regime? To me, this look like a strong probability, specifically if the UN decides to do what it did Libya, to do to Syria "a no fly zone".
 Quoting: David the Clairvoyant


No, fist off Russia is buddy buddy, so they will veto a no fly zone. Especially after they were lied to about the Libya no fly zone. Now if the muslim brotherhood wins, then that another story, but that's months away if it happens.
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 1361544
United States
04/29/2011 01:52 AM
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Re: Will Syria's Bashar al-Assad engage Israel in a war?
OP is in Israel and is pretending to give Syria advice? You can bet that if OP is in Israel and suggests that it would be a good thing for Syria to do then you can bet its exactly what Israel wants them to do.


.
Anonymous Coward
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Canada
04/29/2011 01:53 AM
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Re: Will Syria's Bashar al-Assad engage Israel in a war?
Well Titor said the arabs would attack Israel.

So it might be happening.


Titor said Israel would nuke them back... and Israel would nuke Syria if Syria were to use chemicals and biological weapons against Israel.



WE SHALL SEE.
Anonymous Coward
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Israel
05/15/2011 01:50 AM
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Re: Will Syria's Bashar al-Assad engage Israel in a war?
Syrian authorities are especially keen on the plan as a diversion from their universally condemned crackdown against their own protesters.
MAF_UK

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United Kingdom
05/15/2011 07:13 AM
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Re: Will Syria's Bashar al-Assad engage Israel in a war?
4 People killed by Israeli Forces on Syrian border, breaking now on Sky News.

The start?
mathetes

User ID: 1207860
United States
05/15/2011 07:21 AM

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Re: Will Syria's Bashar al-Assad engage Israel in a war?
4 People killed by Israeli Forces on Syrian border, breaking now on Sky News.

The start?
 Quoting: MAF_UK


IDF opens fire as masses infiltrate from Syria; four reportedly killed

Residents in border town of Majdal Sham say 400-1,000 Palestinian refugees managed to cross border fence,

[link to www.haaretz.com]

Last Edited by mathetes on 05/15/2011 07:22 AM
For I would not, brethren, that ye should be ignorant of this mystery, lest ye should be wise in your own conceits; that blindness in part is happened to Israel, until the fulness of the Gentiles be come in.
Anonymous Coward (OP)
User ID: 1142550
Israel
05/15/2011 07:31 AM
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Re: Will Syria's Bashar al-Assad engage Israel in a war?
4 People killed by Israeli Forces on Syrian border, breaking now on Sky News.

The start?
 Quoting: MAF_UK


IDF opens fire as masses infiltrate from Syria; four reportedly killed

Residents in border town of Majdal Sham say 400-1,000 Palestinian refugees managed to cross border fence,

[link to www.haaretz.com]
 Quoting: mathetes


The IDF opened fire and deployed helicopters against the invaders causing casualties including several dead. Three Israel civilians were injured in the battle. Out of several thousands who mobbed the border on the Syrian side, scores smashed their way through the border and got through. The exchange of fire continues. [link to www.debka.com]
mathetes

User ID: 1207860
United States
05/15/2011 07:32 AM

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Re: Will Syria's Bashar al-Assad engage Israel in a war?
4 People killed by Israeli Forces on Syrian border, breaking now on Sky News.

The start?
 Quoting: MAF_UK


IDF opens fire as masses infiltrate from Syria; four reportedly killed

Residents in border town of Majdal Sham say 400-1,000 Palestinian refugees managed to cross border fence,

[link to www.haaretz.com]
 Quoting: mathetes


The IDF opened fire and deployed helicopters against the invaders causing casualties including several dead. Three Israel civilians were injured in the battle. Out of several thousands who mobbed the border on the Syrian side, scores smashed their way through the border and got through. The exchange of fire continues. [link to www.debka.com]
 Quoting: David the Clairvoyant


Stay safe!


Jew Jitsu
For I would not, brethren, that ye should be ignorant of this mystery, lest ye should be wise in your own conceits; that blindness in part is happened to Israel, until the fulness of the Gentiles be come in.
mathetes

User ID: 1207860
United States
05/15/2011 07:36 AM

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Re: Will Syria's Bashar al-Assad engage Israel in a war?
Golan Heights update: Israeli military says it fired warning shots when Syrians tried to cross border; Channel 2 TV reports 4 deaths - AP

[link to twitter.com]
For I would not, brethren, that ye should be ignorant of this mystery, lest ye should be wise in your own conceits; that blindness in part is happened to Israel, until the fulness of the Gentiles be come in.
Anonymous Coward
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United States
05/15/2011 07:36 AM
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Re: Will Syria's Bashar al-Assad engage Israel in a war?
Israel should just cast lead.
CXT

User ID: 1078074
United Kingdom
05/15/2011 07:38 AM
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Re: Will Syria's Bashar al-Assad engage Israel in a war?
things don't look good
Anonymous Coward
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Australia
05/15/2011 07:38 AM
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Re: Will Syria's Bashar al-Assad engage Israel in a war?
What are the chances that Syria's Bashar al-Assad will engage Israel in a war, to distract the world and their local civilians, to save his regime? To me, this look like a strong probability, specifically if the UN decides to do what it did Libya, to do to Syria "a no fly zone".
 Quoting: David the Clairvoyant


I think this will happen your own the money my friend

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