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!!! Automated Earthquake predictions for 5 days !!! Check it out!!

 
PhillSmoker
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07/13/2011 03:46 PM
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!!! Automated Earthquake predictions for 5 days !!! Check it out!!
I'm testing some software to predict earthquakes that can happen within 5 days. I'll update this thread on a daily basis. For now, here is the first series of predictions for the coming 5 days:

Yellow = possible chance of a 5+ or several 4+ in a short time
Orange = possible chance of a 6+ or several 5+ in a short time
Red = possible chance of a 7+ or several 6+ in a short time

Red Alert
OFF EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN

Orange Alert
BANDA SEA
COSTA RICA
KERMADEC ISLANDS REGION
NEGROS, PHILIPPINES
SOUTHERN EAST PACIFIC RISE
SULAWESI, INDONESIA
TONGA
TONGA REGION

Yellow Alert
ASCENSION ISLAND REGION
BISMARCK SEA
CENTRAL MID-ATLANTIC RIDGE
CHIAPAS, MEXICO
EASTERN HONSHU, JAPAN
FIJI REGION
HALMAHERA, INDONESIA
JUJUY, ARGENTINA
KEPULAUAN BARAT DAYA, INDONESIA
KERMADEC ISLANDS, NEW ZEALAND
KURIL ISLANDS
KYUSHU, JAPAN
MARIANA ISLANDS REGION
MINAHASA, SULAWESI, INDONESIA
MINDANAO, PHILIPPINES
MORO GULF, MINDANAO, PHILIPPINES
MYANMAR
NEAR EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
NEAR N COAST OF PAPUA, INDONESIA
NEW IRELAND REGION, P.N.G.
NORTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA
NORTHERN XINJIANG, CHINA
OAXACA, MEXICO
SOUTH SANDWICH ISLANDS REGION
SOUTH OF FIJI ISLANDS
SOUTH OF JAVA, INDONESIA
SOUTH OF KERMADEC ISLANDS
SOUTH OF PANAMA
TAIWAN
URAL MOUNTAINS REGION, RUSSIA
VANUATU
WESTERN MEDITERRANEAN SEA
WESTERN TURKEY

Taking into account all earthquakes reported by EMSC untill july 12th 11:59pm.
Earthquake prediction for 13th - 16th july 2011
Siredamus

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07/13/2011 03:52 PM
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Re: !!! Automated Earthquake predictions for 5 days !!! Check it out!!
cool thread! bump

will watch this closely
PhillSmoker (OP)

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07/13/2011 04:00 PM
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Re: !!! Automated Earthquake predictions for 5 days !!! Check it out!!
After starting the thread ... I checked for EQ 4+ that occured today ... these are allready first results:

OFF EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN (Red Alert) : 4.6
KERMADEC ISLANDS REGION (Orange Alert) : 5.1
TONGA (Orange Alert): 5.2
JUJUY, ARGENTINA (Yellow Alert) : 4.2
KEPULAUAN BARAT DAYA, INDONESIA (Yellow Alert) : 4.8
NEAR EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN (Yellow Alert) : 4.5 & 4.3
SOUTH OF KERMADEC ISLANDS (Yellow Alert) : 5.1
TAIWAN (Yellow Alert) : 5.2
WESTERN TURKEY (Yellow Alert) : 4.2

That's a nice start I'd say :)
Anonymous Coward
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07/13/2011 04:03 PM
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Re: !!! Automated Earthquake predictions for 5 days !!! Check it out!!
hf

Awesome job OP! five stars & pin hf
PhillSmoker (OP)

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07/13/2011 04:05 PM
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Re: !!! Automated Earthquake predictions for 5 days !!! Check it out!!
hf

Awesome job OP! five stars & pin hf
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 1452374

Thx ... i'll update the list on a daily basis and add earthquakes behind the list that have allready happened, to check the system.
Anonymous Coward
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07/13/2011 04:10 PM
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Re: !!! Automated Earthquake predictions for 5 days !!! Check it out!!
bump

banana2 hf
Anonymous Coward
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07/13/2011 04:12 PM
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Re: !!! Automated Earthquake predictions for 5 days !!! Check it out!!
hf

Awesome job OP! five stars & pin hf
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 1452374

Thx ... i'll update the list on a daily basis and add earthquakes behind the list that have allready happened, to check the system.
 Quoting: PhillSmoker


Thanks, I live by Yellowstone so, the Earthquakes intrege me. hf
PhillSmoker (OP)

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07/13/2011 04:14 PM
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Re: !!! Automated Earthquake predictions for 5 days !!! Check it out!!
hf

Awesome job OP! five stars & pin hf
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 1452374

Thx ... i'll update the list on a daily basis and add earthquakes behind the list that have allready happened, to check the system.
 Quoting: PhillSmoker


Thanks, I live by Yellowstone so, the Earthquakes intrege me. hf
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 1452374

Minimum magnitude of earthquakes predicted here are 4+ ... so if you see Yellowstone appearing, let's hope it's only on yellow alert :)
Anonymous Coward
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07/13/2011 04:21 PM
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Re: !!! Automated Earthquake predictions for 5 days !!! Check it out!!
Curious how your software works. Is it just based on historical data or something more woo-woo-y :) ?
starshine

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07/13/2011 04:22 PM
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Re: !!! Automated Earthquake predictions for 5 days !!! Check it out!!
Here is an excellent thread on earthquake forecasting.

Thread: F.O.G.

Gabriel and El Q have different techniques for predicting quakes and both are very good.
Gabe is extremely accurate at forecasting earthquakes within 24 hrs including locations and mags.

I'll have to watch your thread for a while before being able to comment further. Hope your system works out well.
Live and learn, then learn to live
Czarcasym

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07/13/2011 04:25 PM

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Re: !!! Automated Earthquake predictions for 5 days !!! Check it out!!
Hey thanks Phil...

I will keep your thread bookmarked...

Wow now I have another EQ site to check daily...lol

Keep up the good fight...

Cz...

rockon
A person often meets his destiny on the road he took to avoid it.
Jean de La Fontaine
PhillSmoker (OP)

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07/14/2011 03:43 AM
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Re: !!! Automated Earthquake predictions for 5 days !!! Check it out!!
Here is an update, including all data untill july 13th

Status Period Region (+results)

Red 13/7-17/7 East Coast of Honshu, Japan (4.5, 4.6, 4.3)

Orange 13/7-16/7 Banda Sea
Orange 13/7-16/7 Costa Rica
Orange 13/7-16/7 East Pacific Rise
Orange 13/7-17/7 Indonesia (4.8)
Orange 13/7-17/7 Kermadec(5.1, 5.1)
Orange 13/7-17/7 Philippines (4.8)
Orange 13/7-17/7 Tonga (5.2)

Yellow 13/7-16/7 Argentina (4.2)
Yellow 13/7-16/7 Ascention Islands
Yellow 13/7-16/7 Bismarck Sea
Yellow 13/7-17/7 Chile (4.8, 4.6)
Yellow 13/7-16/7 China
Yellow 13/7-16/7 Fiji
Yellow 13/7-16/7 Kuril Islands
Yellow 13/7-16/7 Mariana Islands
Yellow 13/7-16/7 Mexico
Yellow 13/7-16/7 Mid Atlantic Ridge
Yellow 13/7-16/7 Myanmar
Yellow 13/7-16/7 P.N.G.
Yellow 13/7-16/7 Panama
Yellow 14/7-17/7 Peru
Yellow 13/7-16/7 Sandwich Islands
Yellow 13/7-17/7 Taiwan (5.2)
Yellow 13/7-16/7 Turkey (4.2)
Yellow 13/7-16/7 Ural Mountains, Russia
Yellow 13/7-16/7 Vanuatu
Yellow 13/7-16/7 Western Mediterranean Sea

Underlined regions had earthquakes during the predicted period.
Anonymous Coward
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07/14/2011 03:45 AM
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Re: !!! Automated Earthquake predictions for 5 days !!! Check it out!!
You are just guessing OP, anyone can do that these days, you just choose hot spots.


Geez....
PhillSmoker (OP)

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07/14/2011 03:50 AM
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Re: !!! Automated Earthquake predictions for 5 days !!! Check it out!!
You are just guessing OP, anyone can do that these days, you just choose hot spots.


Geez....
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 1465244

Nope, I'm not guessing. And isn't it normal that earthquakes do happen more in certain regions and that they come out in the 'prediction'? I'm developping a program myself, and it just isn't based on pure history. There are some algorithms in it to indicate the magnitude of the quakes and possibility.
Dirt Diver

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07/14/2011 04:03 AM
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Re: !!! Automated Earthquake predictions for 5 days !!! Check it out!!
Great stuff OP, might as well use them computers for something useful ;-)
Looking forward to following this thread
5* for effort
Anonymous Coward
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07/14/2011 05:18 AM
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Re: !!! Automated Earthquake predictions for 5 days !!! Check it out!!
Magnitude 5.6 - WEST CHILE RISE
2011 July 14 08:49:24 UTC


[link to earthquake.usgs.gov]
Anonymous Coward
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07/14/2011 05:38 AM
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Re: !!! Automated Earthquake predictions for 5 days !!! Check it out!!
and another one

Magnitude 5.4 - WEST CHILE RISE
2011 July 14 08:52:32 UTC


[link to earthquake.usgs.gov]
Instance

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07/14/2011 05:50 AM
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Re: !!! Automated Earthquake predictions for 5 days !!! Check it out!!
This should be pinned, if only for test value.
n·stance/ˈinstəns/Noun 1. An example or single occurrence of something: "an instance of corruption"
Enchanted Wanderer

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07/14/2011 05:51 AM
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Re: !!! Automated Earthquake predictions for 5 days !!! Check it out!!
Well you didnt put Western Australia in there and I guess who would of thought it.. but they had a mag 4.5 this afternoon

[link to www.ga.gov.au]
Time for a new reality [link to www.thevenusproject.com]
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stormer

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07/14/2011 05:52 AM

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Re: !!! Automated Earthquake predictions for 5 days !!! Check it out!!
wtf
eq
Emancipate yourselves from mental slavery - Bob Marley
Anonymous Coward
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07/14/2011 07:41 AM
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Re: !!! Automated Earthquake predictions for 5 days !!! Check it out!!
next one

Magnitude 5.2 - WEST CHILE RISE
2011 July 14 11:17:32 UTC


[link to earthquake.usgs.gov]
PhillSmoker (OP)

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07/14/2011 07:42 AM
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Re: !!! Automated Earthquake predictions for 5 days !!! Check it out!!
Well you didnt put Western Australia in there and I guess who would of thought it.. but they had a mag 4.5 this afternoon

[link to www.ga.gov.au]
 Quoting: Enchanted Wanderer

No indeed. I don't take any 5- quakes into account when they occur in a not so active area. Same for France (they also had a 4.5 today). I'm only interested in regions where quakes can occur of magn. 5+ (or multiple 4.5+ in a small time-period). There are way too many 4+ quakes to take them also into account.
PhillSmoker (OP)

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07/14/2011 07:43 AM
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Re: !!! Automated Earthquake predictions for 5 days !!! Check it out!!
next one

Magnitude 5.2 - WEST CHILE RISE

[link to earthquake.usgs.gov]
 Quoting: IwantToBelieve76

Thx for the update :) I'll give an updated overview later on.
Chile was expected to have a 5+.
Anonymous Coward
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07/14/2011 08:33 AM
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Re: !!! Automated Earthquake predictions for 5 days !!! Check it out!!
Come on!!

Give us the link.
PhillSmoker (OP)

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07/14/2011 09:04 AM
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Re: !!! Automated Earthquake predictions for 5 days !!! Check it out!!
Come on!!

Give us the link.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 1433265

I have to test my application. It's still in design phase. I'm gonna try to show results as accurate as possible. This is pure statistics and maths. I have to be sure there are enough valid results, before I start talking about the system.
El Quisqueyano

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07/14/2011 11:35 AM
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Re: !!! Automated Earthquake predictions for 5 days !!! Check it out!!
Nice job Phil. And a pin.
Anonymous Coward
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07/14/2011 11:36 AM
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Re: !!! Automated Earthquake predictions for 5 days !!! Check it out!!
Interesting thread, but I thought earthquakes were undpredictable?
Anonymous Coward
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07/14/2011 12:15 PM
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Re: !!! Automated Earthquake predictions for 5 days !!! Check it out!!
Op,

So how are you determining the risk?

Do you look at an aggregate of the number and frequency of quakes in a given region, or more than that? How complex is your algorithm?

I've actually been working on something similar.
Anonymous Coward
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07/14/2011 12:16 PM
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Re: !!! Automated Earthquake predictions for 5 days !!! Check it out!!
Op,

So how are you determining the risk?

Do you look at an aggregate of the number and frequency of quakes in a given region over time, or more than that? How complex is your algorithm?

I've actually been working on something similar.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 1002820
Anonymous Coward
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07/14/2011 12:30 PM
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Re: !!! Automated Earthquake predictions for 5 days !!! Check it out!!
cool idea!! hf
El Quisqueyano

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07/14/2011 12:54 PM
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Re: !!! Automated Earthquake predictions for 5 days !!! Check it out!!
Significant precursor signal seen at 1645utc/1245est. Possible 5 to 6

Not the time for fun and games. All in Quake prone areas be wary next 3 hours.

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