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UPDATED 10/23/11: Earthquake activity from 1990-2011 charted. Pin for education!

 
Mojofabulous
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UPDATED 10/23/11: Earthquake activity from 1990-2011 charted. Pin for education!
As my very first post here on GLP I thought I would share some statistics I have recently gathered for myself.

Out of all the different controversy and conspiracy theories there is only one subject I've come upon where I was able to prove without any doubt whatsoever that something is seriously wrong. Earthquake activity is that subject. I used the IRIS earthquake database to chart earthquake activity from 1990-today. Here is a link to the results: [link to imageshack.us]

UPDATE: Revised statistics for 8/24/11- [link to imageshack.us]

2nd UPDATE: Revised statistics for 10/23/11-
[link to img824.imageshack.us]

I was very careful not to make any errors. Those graphs are accurate(according to the IRIS database). I in no way distorted any of these graphs to present a favorable outcome. They depict reality. A couple things are important to note:

First, no earthquake database is complete. IRIS is simply the most accurate I could find. I started out trying to use the USGS but I quickly found that many earthquakes were simply not being included. IRIS isn't innocent of this either, unfortunately. For example, as of a week ago a heck of a lot of the New Zealand quakes this year aren't showing up on IRIS.

Second, it isn't good enough to simply total up all the earthquakes 1.0 and above every year and say "Yup, we're experiencing more earthquakes!" You have to break them down by category and exclude the lesser quakes(0-4). Those are not very accurately measured over the last few decades and become extremely misleading due to varying numbers of sensors, etc). What really matters is seismic energy output and that increases exponentially with seismic magnitude.

Third, the figures for 2011 are PROJECTIONS based on 214 days of data(I updated the statistics to August 2nd). I divided those numbers by 214 and multiplied by 365 to come to estimated year-end outcomes. Unless earthquake activity just straight up stops for the next 5 months, these projections should be pretty darn accurate. Certainly they won't be so far off that the upward trend won't manifest. The graph with the highest probability of inaccuracy is the 7.0+ graph since the sample size is so much smaller.(That's just basic statistics)

If you are wondering why 4.0-4.99 quake activity is decreasing while all the rest is increasing..That's a very good question. While charting all the data I noticed a general trend showing that if 4.0-4.99 activity increased...5.0-5.99 decreased but 6.0+ increased either that year or the following year. The fact that the last couple years 4.0-4.99 has plummeted and all 5.0-10.0 activity has increased exponentially shows something is fundamentally different.

I have looked back all the way to the early to mid 1900s and nothing like this sort of recent activity has been replicated. Certainly that does not mean recent activity is unprecedented, 20 or so years in the grand scheme of things is not very long. However, I think we can agree that such a exponential increase is not normal. Whether or not it is unprecedented is fairly irrelevant when you consider that precedence does not eliminate the possibility of disastrous consequences.

If someone knows of a ACCURATE database for worldwide volcanic activity please let me know. I am dying to chart volcanic activity as well. The problem is that virtually all the popular databases are extremely inaccurate, yielding useless graphs. I have a feeling though that volcanic activity, were I able to chart it properly, would show an even greater exponential increase than earthquakes are today. That's just my opinion.

Finally, if you see a post similar to this on haters, I didn't steal from them. THEY are ME, lol. Just FYI :-) If you would like to confirm these graphs for yourself, here is a link to the IRIS database: [link to www.iris.edu]

Thanks for reading

Last Edited by Mojofabulous on 10/23/2011 09:07 PM
Modern Earthquake Activity:
Thread: UPDATED 10/23/11: Earthquake activity from 1990-2011 charted. Pin for education!

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Zlyle14

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08/03/2011 11:01 PM
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Re: UPDATED 10/23/11: Earthquake activity from 1990-2011 charted. Pin for education!
eq

bump
Peace and Love \/m
Mojofabulous (OP)

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08/03/2011 11:23 PM
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Re: UPDATED 10/23/11: Earthquake activity from 1990-2011 charted. Pin for education!
bump cause people need to see this. Not only are earthquakes involved in immediate disasters that you should be prepared for. They are a sign of climate change and economic hardtimes. Natural disasters cost a lot of money and interrupt supply lines.
Modern Earthquake Activity:
Thread: UPDATED 10/23/11: Earthquake activity from 1990-2011 charted. Pin for education!

Gold and Silver Station:
[link to www.godlikeproductions.com]

Best Comedy Videos:
Thread: Laugh....DAMNIT!!!

If you appreciate these threads I have made, please share the love by giving karma.

The first step in enabling yourself to learn anything is to actively throw away all your assumptions. This is a continual process, as most assumptions aren't known to exist until you stumble upon them.
Practically ET

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08/03/2011 11:26 PM
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Re: UPDATED 10/23/11: Earthquake activity from 1990-2011 charted. Pin for education!
Good work...

bumpnow1
500 Billion Galaxies in the observable universe. 100 Trillion stars in the Milky way. 50 Million potentially habitable planets in the Milky Way. And you're telling me ETs don't exist?
Anonymous Coward
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08/03/2011 11:30 PM
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Re: UPDATED 10/23/11: Earthquake activity from 1990-2011 charted. Pin for education!
Thanks OP! I was wondering about this :) Pin suggest and Big.....bump
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Re: UPDATED 10/23/11: Earthquake activity from 1990-2011 charted. Pin for education!
bump
SigmaGarnet

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08/03/2011 11:33 PM
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Re: UPDATED 10/23/11: Earthquake activity from 1990-2011 charted. Pin for education!
bump

Last Edited by SigmaGarnet on 08/03/2011 11:33 PM
Xen_

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08/03/2011 11:36 PM
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Re: UPDATED 10/23/11: Earthquake activity from 1990-2011 charted. Pin for education!
Very interesting. bump
Anonymous Coward
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08/03/2011 11:37 PM
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Re: UPDATED 10/23/11: Earthquake activity from 1990-2011 charted. Pin for education!
nice job op

would also like to see a graph of 5.0 and above from
1900 to 2011...would be interesting
Anonymous Coward
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08/03/2011 11:39 PM
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Re: UPDATED 10/23/11: Earthquake activity from 1990-2011 charted. Pin for education!
BUMPING because this thread is made of AWESOME effort & doom.
Anonymous Coward
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08/03/2011 11:42 PM
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Re: UPDATED 10/23/11: Earthquake activity from 1990-2011 charted. Pin for education!
Great work, I had considered doing this as well - but I have enough unfinished projects to worry about - let alone charting all of this...

Thank you for sharing!

Bump - vote for pin - 5 stars
Keep Smiling

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08/03/2011 11:43 PM
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Re: UPDATED 10/23/11: Earthquake activity from 1990-2011 charted. Pin for education!
My first thought about the 4.0-4.9 graph was that MAYBE when that graph was showing higher numbers than the larger mag quakes it was a good thing. They were releasing a lot of stress and therefore there weren't the bigger ones.

Not that means anything unless we can hope that they come back in larger numbers again.

BTW great job its a long task - I've tried it myself and failed through boredom.

Last Edited by Keep Smiling on 08/03/2011 11:44 PM
icphotons

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08/03/2011 11:49 PM
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Re: UPDATED 10/23/11: Earthquake activity from 1990-2011 charted. Pin for education!
great post! bump
Opinionated2

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08/03/2011 11:52 PM
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Re: UPDATED 10/23/11: Earthquake activity from 1990-2011 charted. Pin for education!
You are a legend Mojofabulous!

I wanted to do this as part of another project and this proves to me that the project I was about to embark on is worthwhile!

Fabulous timing! Now all I have to do is find the time.

Thankyou!

bump

sharksharksharksharksharksharkshark

Last Edited by Opinionated2 on 08/03/2011 11:52 PM
El Quisqueyano

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Re: UPDATED 10/23/11: Earthquake activity from 1990-2011 charted. Pin for education!
As my very first post here on GLP I thought I would share some statistics I have recently gathered for myself.

Out of all the different controversy and conspiracy theories there is only one subject I've come upon where I was able to prove without any doubt whatsoever that something is seriously wrong. Earthquake activity is that subject. I used the IRIS earthquake database to chart earthquake activity from 1990-today. Here is a link to the results: [link to imageshack.us]

I was very careful not to make any errors. Those graphs are accurate(according to the IRIS database). I in no way distorted any of these graphs to present a favorable outcome. They depict reality. A couple things are important to note:

First, no earthquake database is complete. IRIS is simply the most accurate I could find. I started out trying to use the USGS but I quickly found that many earthquakes were simply not being included. IRIS isn't innocent of this either, unfortunately. For example, as of a week ago a heck of a lot of the New Zealand quakes this year aren't showing up on IRIS.

Second, it isn't good enough to simply total up all the earthquakes 1.0 and above every year and say "Yup, we're experiencing more earthquakes!" You have to break them down by category and exclude the lesser quakes(0-4). Those are not very accurately measured over the last few decades and become extremely misleading due to varying numbers of sensors, etc). What really matters is seismic energy output and that increases exponentially with seismic magnitude.

Third, the figures for 2011 are PROJECTIONS based on 214 days of data(I updated the statistics to August 2nd). I divided those numbers by 214 and multiplied by 365 to come to estimated year-end outcomes. Unless earthquake activity just straight up stops for the next 5 months, these projections should be pretty darn accurate. Certainly they won't be so far off that the upward trend won't manifest. The graph with the highest probability of inaccuracy is the 7.0+ graph since the sample size is so much smaller.(That's just basic statistics)

If you are wondering why 4.0-4.99 quake activity is decreasing while all the rest is increasing..That's a very good question. While charting all the data I noticed a general trend showing that if 4.0-4.99 activity increased...5.0-5.99 decreased but 6.0+ increased either that year or the following year. The fact that the last couple years 4.0-4.99 has plummeted and all 5.0-10.0 activity has increased exponentially shows something is fundamentally different.

I have looked back all the way to the early to mid 1900s and nothing like this sort of recent activity has been replicated. Certainly that does not mean recent activity is unprecedented, 20 or so years in the grand scheme of things is not very long. However, I think we can agree that such a exponential increase is not normal. Whether or not it is unprecedented is fairly irrelevant when you consider that precedence does not eliminate the possibility of disastrous consequences.

If someone knows of a ACCURATE database for worldwide volcanic activity please let me know. I am dying to chart volcanic activity as well. The problem is that virtually all the popular databases are extremely inaccurate, yielding useless graphs. I have a feeling though that volcanic activity, were I able to chart it properly, would show an even greater exponential increase than earthquakes are today. That's just my opinion.

Finally, if you see a post similar to this on ATS, I didn't steal from them. THEY are ME, lol. Just FYI :-) If you would like to confirm these graphs for yourself, here is a link to the IRIS database: [link to www.iris.edu]

Thanks for reading
 Quoting: Mojofabulous


It's fascinating isn't it?
Texas Truthseeker
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08/03/2011 11:52 PM
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Re: UPDATED 10/23/11: Earthquake activity from 1990-2011 charted. Pin for education!
Since this is your first posting on GLP and... you got pinned... and... it is apparent you put alot of research and effort in bringing this forth... and.. because of all this... I shall be on the outlook for all your future threads as well!!!!

hfbumphf
Anonymous Coward
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08/03/2011 11:54 PM
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Re: UPDATED 10/23/11: Earthquake activity from 1990-2011 charted. Pin for education!
bump because I appreciate this very good thread.
littlemiracles

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08/03/2011 11:54 PM
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Re: UPDATED 10/23/11: Earthquake activity from 1990-2011 charted. Pin for education!
bump
Anonymous Coward
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08/03/2011 11:56 PM
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Re: UPDATED 10/23/11: Earthquake activity from 1990-2011 charted. Pin for education!
Make a chart of EQ frequency by year by Gamma Ray Bursts per years frequency/intensity.

[link to grb.sonoma.edu]
Anonymous Coward
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08/03/2011 11:57 PM
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Re: UPDATED 10/23/11: Earthquake activity from 1990-2011 charted. Pin for education!
could you normalize it in turns of total energy?
Anonymous Coward
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Re: UPDATED 10/23/11: Earthquake activity from 1990-2011 charted. Pin for education!
Nice job, OP. Certainly quite an upward trend there. Now lets wait for the shills responses....let's see, they might be a little something like...

1. More monitoring equipment, so more eq's recorded
2. More locations being monitored, so more eq's recorded
3. Newer and more sensitive monitoring equipment, so more eq's picked up
4. IRIS doing a better job at data collection nowadays, so more eq's listed

That should about sum up the shills explanations for the data. All bullshit, of course.
babycakes

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bump

hf for all your work~

thank you!

ps great avatar!
Seeker of Universal Truths.
Live from MT Summit!
Anonymous Coward
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08/03/2011 11:58 PM
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Re: UPDATED 10/23/11: Earthquake activity from 1990-2011 charted. Pin for education!
Last night I was charting the major Earthquakes of the last 20 years using USGS myself! Great Post. Great info. Thank you.
Anonymous Coward
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08/04/2011 12:00 AM
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Re: UPDATED 10/23/11: Earthquake activity from 1990-2011 charted. Pin for education!
Great work but aren't these results slightly skewed? You've included larger quakes twice perhaps? You've done 4-4.99 mag but then for the larger quakes together? Or was this compensated for?
JFav

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08/04/2011 12:06 AM
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Re: UPDATED 10/23/11: Earthquake activity from 1990-2011 charted. Pin for education!

"I try to imagine that the guitar's kind of singing, you know?" - David Gilmour
El Quisqueyano

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08/04/2011 12:06 AM
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Re: UPDATED 10/23/11: Earthquake activity from 1990-2011 charted. Pin for education!
Make a chart of EQ frequency by year by Gamma Ray Bursts per years frequency/intensity.

[link to grb.sonoma.edu]
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 1493279


Now there's another culprit, GRB's. You must be doing your homework poster.
Anonymous Coward
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08/04/2011 12:12 AM
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Re: UPDATED 10/23/11: Earthquake activity from 1990-2011 charted. Pin for education!
Make a chart of EQ frequency by year by Gamma Ray Bursts per years frequency/intensity.

[link to grb.sonoma.edu]
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 1493279


Now there's another culprit, GRB's. You must be doing your homework poster.
 Quoting: El Quisqueyano


Correlation of EQ to GRB (r = .48). GRB leads EQ by 10 days to 13 days. Eg., you see a 120 sec GRB, expect a 7.0 EQ within 10-13 days, (r = .48, p<.05).
Mojofabulous (OP)

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08/04/2011 12:14 AM
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Re: UPDATED 10/23/11: Earthquake activity from 1990-2011 charted. Pin for education!
Thanks for all the positive feedback folks(and for the pin)!

nice job op

would also like to see a graph of 5.0 and above from
1900 to 2011...would be interesting
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 1244883


So would I! I didn't do such a graph for two primary reasons:

First, it would be extraordinarily time consuming to do it properly.

Second, it's impossible to do it properly! The problem with charting old earthquake activity compared to modern activity is that the number of seismic monitors has increased rapidly over the years. If the databases say there were 5000 5.0+ earthquakes in 1900 but there are only 1000 seismic monitors, there is no way to know how many earthquakes there ACTUALLY were relative to modern times when 5,000 occurred with 10,000 seismic monitors. Add to that the fact that record keeping is much more accurate with today's technology and you just can't make real comparisons. Make sense? That is why I limited the activity from 1990-2011.

My first thought about the 4.0-4.9 graph was that MAYBE when that graph was showing higher numbers than the larger mag quakes it was a good thing. They were releasing a lot of stress and therefore there weren't the bigger ones.

Not that means anything unless we can hope that they come back in larger numbers again.

BTW great job its a long task - I've tried it myself and failed through boredom.
 Quoting: Keep Smiling


I agree with you completely. I am certainly no expert on seismic activity but intuitively that is what makes the most sense. Plus, it goes along with the data trends.

BUMPING because this thread is made of AWESOME effort & doom.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 1220210


Lol, I thought some of you might appreciate the tangible doom I could provide :-p

You are a legend Mojofabulous!

I wanted to do this as part of another project and this proves to me that the project I was about to embark on is worthwhile!

Fabulous timing! Now all I have to do is find the time.

Thankyou!

bump

sharksharksharksharksharksharkshark
 Quoting: Opinionated2


Whether or not they end up proving your point, all projects to learn are worthwhile. As long as the goal is to simply learn, being right or wrong is irrelevant!

Since this is your first posting on GLP and... you got pinned... and... it is apparent you put alot of research and effort in bringing this forth... and.. because of all this... I shall be on the outlook for all your future threads as well!!!!

hfbumphf
 Quoting: Texas Truthseeker 1309684


Cheers :-)
Modern Earthquake Activity:
Thread: UPDATED 10/23/11: Earthquake activity from 1990-2011 charted. Pin for education!

Gold and Silver Station:
[link to www.godlikeproductions.com]

Best Comedy Videos:
Thread: Laugh....DAMNIT!!!

If you appreciate these threads I have made, please share the love by giving karma.

The first step in enabling yourself to learn anything is to actively throw away all your assumptions. This is a continual process, as most assumptions aren't known to exist until you stumble upon them.
hcc2010
User ID: 1422475
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08/04/2011 12:14 AM
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Re: UPDATED 10/23/11: Earthquake activity from 1990-2011 charted. Pin for education!
As my very first post here on GLP I thought I would share some statistics I have recently gathered for myself.

Out of all the different controversy and conspiracy theories there is only one subject I've come upon where I was able to prove without any doubt whatsoever that something is seriously wrong. Earthquake activity is that subject. I used the IRIS earthquake database to chart earthquake activity from 1990-today. Here is a link to the results: [link to imageshack.us]

I was very careful not to make any errors. Those graphs are accurate(according to the IRIS database). I in no way distorted any of these graphs to present a favorable outcome. They depict reality. A couple things are important to note:

First, no earthquake database is complete. IRIS is simply the most accurate I could find. I started out trying to use the USGS but I quickly found that many earthquakes were simply not being included. IRIS isn't innocent of this either, unfortunately. For example, as of a week ago a heck of a lot of the New Zealand quakes this year aren't showing up on IRIS.

Second, it isn't good enough to simply total up all the earthquakes 1.0 and above every year and say "Yup, we're experiencing more earthquakes!" You have to break them down by category and exclude the lesser quakes(0-4). Those are not very accurately measured over the last few decades and become extremely misleading due to varying numbers of sensors, etc). What really matters is seismic energy output and that increases exponentially with seismic magnitude.

Third, the figures for 2011 are PROJECTIONS based on 214 days of data(I updated the statistics to August 2nd). I divided those numbers by 214 and multiplied by 365 to come to estimated year-end outcomes. Unless earthquake activity just straight up stops for the next 5 months, these projections should be pretty darn accurate. Certainly they won't be so far off that the upward trend won't manifest. The graph with the highest probability of inaccuracy is the 7.0+ graph since the sample size is so much smaller.(That's just basic statistics)

If you are wondering why 4.0-4.99 quake activity is decreasing while all the rest is increasing..That's a very good question. While charting all the data I noticed a general trend showing that if 4.0-4.99 activity increased...5.0-5.99 decreased but 6.0+ increased either that year or the following year. The fact that the last couple years 4.0-4.99 has plummeted and all 5.0-10.0 activity has increased exponentially shows something is fundamentally different.

I have looked back all the way to the early to mid 1900s and nothing like this sort of recent activity has been replicated. Certainly that does not mean recent activity is unprecedented, 20 or so years in the grand scheme of things is not very long. However, I think we can agree that such a exponential increase is not normal. Whether or not it is unprecedented is fairly irrelevant when you consider that precedence does not eliminate the possibility of disastrous consequences.

If someone knows of a ACCURATE database for worldwide volcanic activity please let me know. I am dying to chart volcanic activity as well. The problem is that virtually all the popular databases are extremely inaccurate, yielding useless graphs. I have a feeling though that volcanic activity, were I able to chart it properly, would show an even greater exponential increase than earthquakes are today. That's just my opinion.

Finally, if you see a post similar to this on ATS, I didn't steal from them. THEY are ME, lol. Just FYI :-) If you would like to confirm these graphs for yourself, here is a link to the IRIS database: [link to www.iris.edu]

Thanks for reading
 Quoting: Mojofabulous



Oh man! That is one cute puppy. Love it. :)

Nice graphs, too. But I don't understand why you have a graph for 5-10, one for 6-10, and one for 7-10.

Why not 5-6, 7-8, and 9-10?
my2centsworth

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08/04/2011 12:15 AM

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Re: UPDATED 10/23/11: Earthquake activity from 1990-2011 charted. Pin for education!
Wow! OP, that is one heck of a "first post" Very well done and well explained. I love this site, for exactly the kind of posts, like this one, that you posted. I have learned something, and have to confess, I'm surprised that the "professionals" out there, haven't done the kind of work you just completed and posted. Kudo's to you, for your efforts in bringing this information forward.
Anonymous Coward
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08/04/2011 12:28 AM
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Re: UPDATED 10/23/11: Earthquake activity from 1990-2011 charted. Pin for education!
Great Work. Thank you.

Maybe interesting for you:

[link to research.dlindquist.com]

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