PIN THIS - explanation of the correlation between SEISMS & ELENIN - WAIT FOR COMING BIG EARTHQUAKES

ALL OF THIS IS BS. The EQ, as the point of the correlation between Elenin and the alignements (oppositions), are phisically relevant enough because of the link between plasma discharges and EQs not to spent time on this kind BS.

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No, the pressure from the solar wind, even for a CME, can't change the orbit of the 4 kms wide object.


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Nope you are lying. These are the same numbers I quotes from the Horizons database. The problem is, you do not understand them







You don't understand relative velocity





Really? Do you get paid -$1000 dollars a week/month/year?

Your statements reveal your lack of understanding of math and science.



No, you show you are ineducable.



Pure bullshit from someone too stupid to see how wrong and idiotic his statments are. How can you be so stupid?

God, learn something.

None of it is BS. All of it is verifiable. You are jsut an ignorant moron.

Technically, a CME will change the orbit of a comet or asteroid, and even Earth. Practically, that change is too small to measure and can be masked by other effects. So a CME will not change an orbit enough to crash into Earth.

(YOU) No. Your numbers are all wrong. The total orbital velocity of Elenin with respect to the Sun at the March 2011 opposition was 16.0 km/sec.

YOUR OWN WORDS:

On March 11, 2011 Elein had velocities of 23.8 km/sec with respect to the Sun and 31.6 km/sec with respect to the Earth.

(YOU) Nope you are lying. These are the same numbers I quotes from the Horizons database. The problem is, you do not understand them

Do I lie in the sentence: "YOUR OWN WORDS"? These are the only words I used! The rest are YOUR words. So the lie comes from you then (?). Or, you don't know what is the definition of lies. Of course, I am stupid, everyone has understood that 16 = 23.8. Not me. Ahahah.




(YOU) You don't understand relative velocity.

First, it's not 4.1 km/s (from 16 km/s) but 7 km/s if the velocity is 23.8 km/s (the one I took into account from your own words).

Yes I do perfectly understand what relative velocity is. I perfectly understand what you mean and you are right on the first glance. However, I took the time to explain what matters in many ways that you didn't understand at all:

It suffices to say that, for the problem we are facing, it's not the velocity relative to the Earth that matters, but the velocity with respect to the magnetotail...

What we want to know is what time do we have to fill the plasma sheet between the Earth and the comet...

Lag = flexibility of time. But, for the same electric attraction of protons, the lower the angle, the more the lag will occur. Bowell is much electrically weaker than Elenin...

width of the magnetotail: 6300 kms x 25 Re = 157.500 kms. This width IS NOT what the comets must cross to fill the plasma sheet since the magnetotail can be lagged (the magnetotail follows the comet) before or after the perfect opposition (alignement)...

You must think in terms of angle, not distance. I just say it for the tenth times at least...

WHAT IS IMPORTANT IS THE LAG CAPABILITIES OF THE COMETS. ELENIN IS MUCH HIGHER THAN BOWELL IN TERMS OF ELECTRIC CHARGE!

Now, compare 157.000 kms with, let's say, BOWELL 2.5 AU x sin(1) = 6.37 millions kms. The latter is more than 40 times the first number. When I say that what matters the most is the problem with the LAG of the extended magnetotail it means that the Earth orbit velocity is not the problem. What is the problem is the power to lag the extended magnetotail. So, the relative velocity between a comet and the Earth doesn't help us to estimate this power of lagging alone.

What matters is the angle between the comet orbit and the magnetotail. Like I said the lower the angle, the more the lag will occur. That's why I only took into account the perpendicular instantaneous speed of the comets with respect to the magnetotail, not the Earth speed. The question is how much is the magnetotail lagged instantly?

When the comet travels almost perpendicular to the magnetotail (case of Bowell), its "lagging power" is less effective and efficient than the one being almost parallel to it (case of Elenin). In the first case, the depression area is aside (oriented towards the sun) and "leaking" behind the comet orbit, i.e. where the comet is no more, on the second case it's ahead (oriented towards the sun) and "leaking" the same way of the comet orbit, i.e. compressing the protons ahead of the comet Elenin, but creating a vaccum ahead of the pressure zone. Yes, in fact, that's helping the compression to occur. In the first case, the compression close to the comet doesn't acumulate, in the second case, it accumulates relatively to the small angle (case of Elenin).

So, my reasoning consists of saying that this lag power can be seen as a leak problem of the pressure close to the comet. This leak rate is showed in the instant speed with respect to the extended magnetotail because this speed is relative to the instant angle made between the comet orbit and the magnetotail.

Here is a new diapo explaining this:

[link to imageshack.us]

The comments:

The velocity with respect to the magnetotail shows that when the solar wind comes from aside the comet orbit (BOWELL) this latter won’t be able to precipitate the lag of the Earth extended magnetotail. It will do it very close
to the alignement (opposition) for a very short time. On the contrary, when the comet orbit is directly opposed to the solar wind, the lag will occur much earlier and stronger than the first case, particularly when the electric charge is much stronger (ELENIN). The velocity of the Earth do not compensate enough the lag power of the comets. We didn’t take it into account because the magnetotail width is too tiny compared to the lag.

BOWELL: Important leak of the vaccum behind the comet, curving the extended magnetotail very close to it, then quite late.

The strength of the vaccum created ahead of ELENIN accelerates and curves the extended
magnetotail much more than the other case due to the direct opposition of the comet orbit to the solar wind. When the magnetotail reaches the comet, the plasma sheet is created much faster.

So, once you have understood what I call "the magnetotail problem", the rest of your comments are irrelevant. Just a lack of understanding and anger compensation.



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Of course, we can check the facts you announced. But it wasn't what I was talking about. What is BS is the idea to link lottery winners and Elenin alignements (oppositions). You can do this kind of BS with evry kind of subject frequent enough to prove that EQs occurrence frequency is as valid as any other kind of events.

But that is NOT TRUE. I said that there is a scientific relation between plasma discharges from the sun and EQs as many scientists have observed without explaining it.

So, the relation could be realistic for a comet like Elenin discharging in the extended magnetotail. All of my purpose is to show that such a plasma discharge occured already twice for two of the 7 largest earthquake EVER RECORDED ON EARTH!

You opposed recently the number of 8+ EQ per decade. But my graph shows that EQ above 8.5 are RARE because of the logarythmic scale of their magnitude!!!!!

[link to imageshack.us]

It's like comparing the weight of a hammer with the one of a truck.

So, your example was just amusement, not scientific logic.


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I did use the velocity from the wrong opposition

The velocity projected perpendicular to the Sun (and the Earth at opposition) for Elenin is (using your angles)
23.9 km/sec * sin(15 deg) = 6.2 km/sec

The velocity projected perpendicular to the Sun (and the Earth at opposition) for Bowell is (using your angles)
22.8 km/sec * sin(67 deg) = 21.0 km/sec

The Earth orbital velocity is 29.8 km/sec. The relative speed between Earth and Elenin at opposition perpendicular to the Sun-comet line is
6.2 km/sec – 29.8 km/sec = -23.6 km/sec

The relative speed between Earth and Bowell at opposition perpendicular to the Sun-comet line is
21.0 km/sec – 29.8 km/sec = -8.8 km/sec

The velocities listed by the Horizons databse are, as they say,

"These are absolute values of the velocity vectors (total speeds) and do not indicate direction of motion."

From what you are implying, the important quantities are the directions of motion. These values are the motions in the same direction as the Earth's orbit. These are the values that would indicate the time spent in the "shadow".

As far as the "magnetotail problem", there is no real "magnetotail problem". The only problem is that you do not understand the magnetotail. You cannot define an "extended magnetotail" simply because it fits your preconcieved notions. There is no evidence that the magnetotail extends to 2 AU or to Jupiter as you claim. The wikipedia is unsubstantiated and is of no value.

You are also defining the lag out of convience to fit your preconcieved notions. IF the magnetotail did extend it would follow the Parker spiral and that shape is known and the shape has been provided. That shape does not fit your theory.

The plasma sheet does not extend to infinity.

Most of the volume of the tail is taken up by two large bundles of nearly parallel magnetic field lines (see drawing). The bundle north of the equator points earthwards and leads to a roughly circular region including the northern magnetic pole, while the southern bundle points away from Earth and is linked to the southern polar region.
These two bundles, known as the "tail lobes", extend far from Earth: ISEE-3 and Geotail found them well-defined even at 200-220 RE (Earth radii) from Earth. At those distances the lobes are already penetrated by some solar wind plasma, but near Earth they are almost empty. One may compare typical plasma densities:


Solar wind near Earth 6 ions/cubic centimeter
Dayside outer magnetosphere 1 ion/cubic centimeter
"Plasma sheet" separating tail lobes 0.3 -- 0.5 ions/cubic centimeter
Tail lobes 0.01 ion/cubic centimeter

This extremely low density suggests that field lines of the lobe ultimately connect to the solar wind, somewhere far downstream from Earth. Ions and electrons then can easily flow away along lobe field lines, until they are swept up by the solar wind; but very, very few solar wind ions can oppose the wind's general flow and head upstream, towards Earth. With such a one-way traffic, rather little plasma remains in the lobes.

[link to www-istp.gsfc.nasa.gov]

The theory is just as valid as yours, has just as much observational evidence, and has more correlations.

At last, you recognize your mistake! 16 doesn't equal 23.8! I feel better.

(YOU)The velocity projected perpendicular to the Sun (and the Earth at opposition) for Elenin is (using your angles)
23.9 km/sec * sin(15 deg) = 6.2 km/sec

I found something close to 7 km/s. But your number is better to prove me right.

I did like this sentence in your url:

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It was widely believed then that auroral electrons came from the Sun, and the fact that aurora seemed concentrated on the side facing away from the Sun puzzled everyone.

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It helps my theory. For the rest of your text, it is usual debunking already debunked by me (magnetotail, Parker spiral, and so on). For the tail lobes density, it's not the subject of the formation of the plasma sheet created by a comet. Note that densities values change according to the references, and not a little. It remains that the magnetosphere is known to be 10^5 p/cc, especially for the magnetopause.

(YOU) There is no evidence that the magnetotail extends to 2 AU or to Jupiter as you claim. The wikipedia is unsubstantiated and is of no value.

There is no evidence that the magnetotail doesn't extend to 2 AU or to Jupiter neither. Like I said, there is a reason for such a statement in wikipedia. They often use references like we do. At least, they mention it, not the opposite. Your link says that the magnetotail goes to 200 Re. The year of your link is 2001 (last update). Somewhere else we saw "probably 1,000 Re". Again, we don't know for sure. It means that I may be right like the wikipedia reference (often updated) suggests it.


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Here is a reference that helps the theory of plasma sheet between Earth and Elenin:

Thread: ### THE ELECTRIC COMET THEORY ### AN ENCOUNTER WITH A COMETARY TAIL.

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Electric current from the Sun powers auroras.

On March 23, 2007 an auroral substorm erupted over Alaska and Canada, producing vivid auroras for more than two hours. Substorms are sudden bursts of energy in Earth's atmosphere that turn the undulating curtains of the Northern Lights into hyperactive light shows lasting from minutes to hours. Estimates of the total energy of the two-hour event were put at five hundred thousand billion (5 x 1014) Joules. That's approximately equivalent to the energy of a magnitude 5.5 earthquake.

Where does all that energy come from? THEMIS may have found an answer: "The satellites have found evidence for magnetic ropes connecting Earth's upper atmosphere directly to the Sun," says Dave Sibeck, project scientist for the mission at the Goddard Space Flight Center. "We believe that solar wind particles flow in along these ropes, providing energy for geomagnetic storms and auroras."

This report was written within days of the 140th anniversary of the birth of the Norwegian-born physicist Kristian Birkeland. Birkeland correctly hypothesized and demonstrated experimentally in the early 20th century that electric current from the Sun powers the earth's auroras. The 'magnetic ropes' connecting the Sun and the Earth are more correctly named after him- 'Birkeland currents.' The solar wind is not a mechanical 'wind' of particles, it is an electric current from the Sun that takes the form of twisted filament pairs and plasma sheets.

"We have much more to learn about all these things," says Angelopoulos. "I can't wait to see what comes next." Reading Birkeland's century-old works would be a good start for NASA scientists. Terry Pratchett's wry remark applies to science, "Most of what you get taught is lies. It has to be. Sometimes if you get the truth all at once, you can't understand it."

"It seems to be a natural consequence of our points of view to assume that the whole of space is filled with electrons and flying electric ions of all kinds."

— Kristian Birkeland

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Well, if there are 1 AU electric ropes between the sun and the Earth despite the protection of the bow shock and the magnetopause, why not a 2 AU electric rope between Elenin and the Earth, or even a 6 AU rope (what I call the brutal discharge in a plasma sheet created by Elenin). Imagine such a rope at only 0.6 AU next Nov 22nd, 2011, (about half the distance between the sun and the Earth) without any protection (the bow shock)!


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This the FINAL VERSION of the 33 diapos of the theory:

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I think that it could be the last list of diapos I post here. I might be no more available due to an expected ET encounter (Rapture) forecast since years in visions for these coming days. GOD BLESS YOU and TAKE CARE.

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Two things.

FIRST, this quote:

Thread: ### THE ELECTRIC COMET THEORY ### AN ENCOUNTER WITH A COMETARY TAIL. (Page 4)



SECOND, here is a photo of a "rope" ahead of a comet! Like the one I am speaking about that would discharge on Earth.

[link to www.bibliotecapleyades.net]


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From:

Thread: ### THE ELECTRIC COMET THEORY ### AN ENCOUNTER WITH A COMETARY TAIL. (Page 5)

according to Dr. Velikovsky’s thesis, did the earth and the comet that came near it in 1500 b.c. They exchanged discharges of electrical potential.

Here is what Dr. Velikovsky’s description of the pageant that took place in the sky:

When the tidal waves reached their highest point, and the seas were torn apart, a tremendous spark flew between the earth and the globe of the comet, which instantly pushed down the miles-high billows. Meanwhile, the tail of the comet and
its head, having become entangled with each other by their close contact with the earth, exchanged violent discharges of electricity. It looked like a battle between the brilliant globe and the dark column of smoke. In the exchange of electrical potentials, the tail and the head were attracted one to the other and repelled one from the other.


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But you still don't understand relative velocity. The 7 km/sec is the orbital velocity relative to the Sun. Since the Earth has a 30 km/sec relative velocity the realtive veleocity along the direction of Earth's orbit is 30-7 km/sec or 23 km/sec.

Since comet Bowell has a higher velocity in the direction of Earth's orbit the relative velocity is 30-21 km/sec or 9 km/sec.

Since the relative velocity of Bowell is lower it spends more time in the shadow, what you insist on calling magnetotail. This negates all of your arguments.





Not suprising really given your track record. You latch onto things you do not understand and atttribute the wrong meaning to them.




Then my lottery example is more valid then your comet theory. There is no evidence that Elenin didn't cause the lottery winnings and I have 10 correlations to your 2.

Not Velikovsky again. He was very unscientific in his publishings and attributed things to the wrong reason and made many errors. His conjectures were based on wishful thinking and cherry picking the evidence. While it is an interesting story, his work holds no scientific merit.

Nope, that is a complete illusion. That is the a projection problem and not something ahead of the comet. It is the trailing dust trail seen edge on

[link to articles.adsabs.harvard.edu]

IT'S YOUR BUSINESS, AS USUAL.

TAKE A BREAK!


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Very interesting that you are unable to see the logical similarities between the two arguments. But then again, you have not demonstrated any ability to make logical arguments.

You just demonstrated you inability to understand the problem we are facing with the lag of the extended magnetotail. Like I said, you are right at the first glance of the relative velocities comet/earth. But what matters is the angle with respect to the magnetotail to "pile up" the particles of the solar wind on the sun-side of the comets. And then the vaccum created ahead of this "pile up" that will allow (ELENIN), or not (BOWELL), the lag of the extended magnetotail. So, Bowell doesn't pass the test.

That's a scientific logic. But since you see the world with glasses which deform my arguments you will keep saying the same truncated statements.

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Let's compute the probability of two occurrences of the EQs in Chile and Japan, respectively 1 day and 3 days from the opposition day (alignement):

8.8+ quakes have occurred at the rate of 7 in the last 300 years (about one every 43 years), so the probability of someone guessing that a 8.8 quake would occur within a +/- 1 day period is 7(3)/365(300) = .000191

9.0+ quakes have occurred at the rate of 4 in the last 300 years (about one every 75 years), so the probability of someone guessing that a 9.0+ quake would occur within a +/- 3 day period is 4(7)/365(300) = .000255

So the probability of someone correctly guessing two of these events +/- 3 days would be .000191 x .000255 = .0000000487, or about one chance in 20.5 millions.

That's an empirical proof!

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So the probability of someone correctly guessing two of these events +/- 1 day and +/- 3 days would be .000191 x .000255 = .0000000487, or about one chance in 20.5 millions.

That's an empirical proof!

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The lag is well known. It is called the Parker sprial and it doesn't match what you want.

The angles do not match what you want either. Elenin in March was at a much steeper angle. But the time spent in you fictional magnetotail is much less than the time spent by Bowell. That is what the relative velocities are saying.

All you are saying is that Bowell doesn't pass the tests you artifically created so Elenin does pass the test. There is no logic or reason for any of the tests. It isn't a scientific argument.




No. That is called special pleading. Your arguments are deformed all by themselves.

The odds to win Mega Millions are around 1 in 175,711,536. The odds to win SuperEnalotto in Italy are around 1 in 622,614,630. Does that mean no one has ever won those lotteries since the probablities are worse then your Elenin odds?

As in lotteries, the probablities are changed by the number of objects. As stargazer99 points out, there are around 11,903 known objects in the solar system with similar orbital characteristics to Elenin. So multiply 0.0000000487 by 11903 and your odds that something would match those dates becomes 1 in 1725. No bad odds at all.

But then your calculation of the odds is wrong also. You introduce artifical earthquake magnitude cutoffs that change depending upon event. It is called how to lie with statistics.

And no, that is not an "empirical proof". That is a statistical analysis not a direct measurement. You are such an idiot

I don't want to interrupt your discussion, but this reminds me of Spontaneous generation.

You would mix grain with water, wrap it in a rag, and put it for 7 days in a barn. After that time, voila, you would have rats living on it. And can try to relate 2 events, and even if it's a 100% match, doesn't mean they are related.

Another example:
100% of violent criminals drank milk from age 0 to 1. According to the line of thought shown here, milk is the reason violent criminals behave like they do.

You can show all and every alignement comet X does with earth and what not, but until it can be show that event X is responsible for event Y, your out of luck, and credibility.

In fact, I made a mistake because I didn’t take into account the way the values of distances and magnitude decrease and increase respectively. In addition, it's not 4 but 3 EQs above or equal to 9.2 in 300 years. Let's compute the REAL probability of two occurrences of the EQs in Chile and Japan, respectively 1 day and 3 days from the opposition day (alignement), with the decreasing of distances at the same rate of the increasing of the magnitudes:

8.8+ quakes have occurred at the rate of 7 in the last 300 years (about one every 43 years), so the probability of someone guessing that a 8.8 quake would occur within a +/- 1 day period is 7(3)/365(300) = .000191

9.2+ quakes have occurred at the rate of 3 in the last 300 years (about one every 100 years), so the probability of someone guessing that a 9.2+ quake would occur within a +/- 3 day period is 3(7)/365(300) = .000191

The probability that two values of distances (6 AU and 2.1 AU) decrease at a rate of 2.1/6= .35 when the corresponding values of magnitude increase at the same proportion (9.2 is three times the strength of a 8.8 EQ) are grossly…1/2 x 2/2(100) x 2/2(100) =.5 x .01 x .01 = .00005

So the probability of someone correctly guessing two of these events +/- 1 day and +/- 3 days and having values of distances decreasing at the same pace of the increasing of the corresponding magnitude would be .000191 x .000191 x .00005 = .00000000000182, or about one chance in 550 milliards.

That's an empirical proof!


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OOOPS, I was talking in "French". So,

So the probability of someone correctly guessing two of these events +/- 1 day and +/- 3 days and having values of distances decreasing at the same pace of the increasing of the corresponding magnitude would be .000191 x .000191 x .00005 = .00000000000182, or about one chance in 550 billions.

That's an empirical proof!

You are so damned stupid. It is not empirical proof. It is statistical analysis and not a proof at all. Look up the meaning of empirical.

Your magnitude cutoffs are arbitraty. Since 1900 there have been 5 earthquakes above 9.0 Why do you use 9.2? It is clearly a manipulation of the numbers. In other words, you are lying to make your numbers look good. You have no basis to determine a cutoff at all. You have no cause and effect. A correlation of two events is not significant no matter what lies you tell with your statistical numbers. Earlier you said you said 8.5 was your limit. Why not use that? Oh I know, because it makes your number look worse.

And you still have to multiply by the number of possible objects 12,000 to 550,000.

This is more junk science from an idiot.

Your numbers are off a bit, but the gist of what you are saying is correct.

Each of the last three Elenin alignments have coincided with large quakes +/- 3 days :

Feb 25, 2010 (Feb 27 quake in Chile, 8.8)
Sept 3, 2010 (Sept 3 quake in New Zealand 7.0)
Mar 14, 2011 (March 11 quake in Japan: 9.0)

7.0+ quakes occur at the rate of 16 per year, so the probability of some random pattern coinciding with a 7.0+ quake within a +/- 3 day period is 16(7)/365 = .306

8.7+ quakes have occurred at the rate of 10 in the last 110 years, averaging one every 11 years, so the probability of some random pattern coinciding with a 8.8 quake within a +/- 3 day period is 10(7)/365(110) = .00174

9.0+ quakes have occurred at the rate of 6 in the last 110 years, averaging one every 18 years, so the probability of some random pattern coinciding with 9.0+ quake within a +/- 3 day period is 6(7)/365(110) = .00104

So the probability of some random pattern (like Elenin's alignments) coinciding with all three of these events +/- 3 days would be .306 x .00174 x .00104 = .00000055 , or about one chance in 1.8 million.

What do these numbers mean?

If someone was going to randomly pull three dates out of thin air and then check to see if those dates lined up with a 7.0 magnitude quake, an 8.8 magnitude quake, and a 9.0
magnitude quake, they would be likely to be successful only once in 1.8 million tries.

Yet Elenin did this very thing.

The odds are 1.8 million to one against this being a random coincidence. That means that there is, statistically speaking, a 99.9999% likelihood that some sort of relationship exists between Elenin and these quakes.

That doesn't mean that it is a causal relationship. The math does not, can not, tell us anything about the nature of the relationship between them, but it absolutely and unequivocally tells us that this pattern is not, can not be, a mere coincidence.