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Last minute tips for parents when the SHTF

 
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 1110734
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11/24/2012 08:04 PM
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Re: Last minute tips for parents when the SHTF
Advent

I have deliberately made many postings for many weeks so you have practical information as I am very concerned about Winter survival for all of you. Do some independent study now and try doing some of it. Please allocate some of that Christmas money on that instead of "shiny toys". Makes some gifts instead that might help your family and friends.

Truthfully this period in history is Advent. It comes from the Latin word adventus or “coming”. Imagine that Christ is coming. Imagine that a change is coming.

Today we focus on Christmas and material goods. We forget its true meaning. Now would be a good time to prepare yourself...physically, mentally, spiritually. The birth of Jesus is not a memorial to a great man, and therefore a celebration. It's about keeping the words of Christ close to your heart, feeling the Presence of God moment-by-moment, yielding to God, and then every moment trying to live into an abundant altruistic life with your neighbor.
Anonymous Coward
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11/24/2012 08:51 PM
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Re: Last minute tips for parents when the SHTF
If you really want to save money, buy gifts ahead of time, or buy them discounted after Christmas

When I was younger, I didn't have much money. I worked when I was very young on odd jobs or delivering papers and on and on. I purchased things when they were on sale, and then at Christmas time, I gave those things to my friends and family. Had I waited for times when my parents could drive me with all of the traffic and ruckus, then it would have made them and me...miserable.

We didn't buy tons of things for each other. We bought one thing. We did however do many kind things all year long for each other, and treated each other with respect, and sometimes did buy an inexpensive ice cream cone for one another.

As I got older, my parents wanted to buy things for me, but often bought things I didn't need or desire. They gave me Christmas money instead and saved themselves the hassle, and then sometimes many months later, I'd purchase things on sale that I did need. I bought a very good recurve bow that way. I bought many like new clothes and books at the Salvation Army store.

Maybe on rare occasions, I bought some new shirts to look good. I bought quality merchandise that would hold up, and took care of it. My friends spent a lot of money on clothes, but you know, I dated just as much if not more than them.

How much are frozen turkeys today now that Thanksgiving is past? Who will have money after Christmas? The stores will have to lower prices on some things, not all due to inflation, but in the short term they need that floor space for incoming inventory.

You don't need that thing right now. That's the guaranteed way to spend the most for it. If you're an old fart, you know that calculators, microwave ovens, VCRs, and DVD players were very expensive when they first came out. Why in the world would you teach your children to buy these things the very first day they're first sold. That is lunacy. Have some priorities. I never thought of my parents as “tightwads”. If your kids will think that, then you've taught them something wrong along the way.
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 1110734
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11/24/2012 11:41 PM
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Re: Last minute tips for parents when the SHTF
How much water is currently available in the USA and your particular region?

I think if I was just beginning to think about gardening or small scale farming, I'd look at three forms of data that reported:
How much rainfall does my area get a year and in what seasons?
[link to water.weather.gov]

How low are river levels right now?
[link to waterdata.usgs.gov]

How low are ground water levels (water table)?
[link to groundwaterwatch.usgs.gov]

There are many ways you can do that, but I have included links for each question.

This information will show you something that you already know: we're in the midst of a Great Drought.

36% of US citizens get their water from groundwater sources wells and aquifers. The rest rely upon lakes and rivers that increase or decrease based upon rainfall, snowmelt, humidity, and temperature.

Here's a map of the groundwater aquifers: places in which it collects. A well taps into that aquifer usually in a small way for individual use, but of course large ones for city municipalities.
[link to web.mit.edu]

Now of course there is less rainfall in Winter in most places, though snow will fall offering a fraction of rainfall. So naturally it's dry now.

If you look at the other two pieces of the equation, I think we're in for a very rough Winter season. Even if we had to dig wells in Winter, a terrible situation, and/or gather from local river and lakes, the mass of people doing this with individual efforts would create a major drain of what's there, would be inefficient, would have a human cost, would be a sanitation nightmare, would translate into major health issues, etc.

Those that are served by the Ogallala Aquifer: Colorado,Kansas, Nebraska, New Mexico, Oklahoma, South Dakota, Texas, and Wyoming, they are really getting hammered because they're using far and above what is going into it. They're in serious negative numbers, and it's estimated in a hundred years, at this rate they'll simply run out. They've diminished 197 million acre-feet of it.

I'm not certain that the study at that link took into account the projected human populationgrowth rate either, or industrial and agricultural demands. Livestock and additional crops needed would be the biggest drawdown most likely. I'm not a hydrologist.

If you live in these states and you're not thinking about making modifications to acquire water, altering gardening techniques, having lots and lots of supplies, then really I don't know what else I can say to change your minds.

Looking at the region of the Mississippi, you'll see severe groundwater changes.
[link to www.businessweek.com]

If you look at the link above, it notes that the link between the Ohio River and the Mississippi River is almost at historic lows, and that it may not be possible to navigate it past December 10th. This will create delays which affect grain prices due to delivery issues. How many other things move on this river?

Yes, railroads are thinking about expanding as a result of it. It will mean more trucks also to cope. The former will take a lot of time. The latter may put some truckers back to work.

Not to mention that, but the reason that some farmers have rich soil is from river silt. The river carries soil down and deposits it, just like ancient Egypt's river delta. These could also cause lower production of any crops grown in those regions. If the rivers is not renewing the soil by depositing it, then only the farmer's actions will increase its fertility. If you're farming in that area, you're going to have to adjust practices too.

I think a good critical thinker would be looking at all of these issues to determine if moving wouldn't be a good option for some people based upon water sources and changes to them.
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 1110734
United States
11/25/2012 02:41 AM
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Re: Last minute tips for parents when the SHTF
I started a new thread called: Human survivability with supply chain disruptions and its effect on populations

I hope that some of you will visit that topic as I'm hoping it will inspire people to comment on how many people will die in the short and long-term, and how that will change preparedness.

It's also a place to challenge the possibility that it will happen at all, for perhaps a collapse is not likely in some people's minds, or they believe that the government could handle managing such a crisis.

I'll hope you'll weigh in. This is not to convince people to prepare whatsoever, but to have a rational dialogue about:
1. What would happen?
2. Is it possible or probable or plausible?
3. What are the ramification?
4. Is preparedness flawed?
5. How well do you think the government would manage resources and people to solve the issue of feeding and watering so many?

ETC.

I hope that if you support prepping, that you'll behave and speak using reason and not prosthelytize. There are benefits to being challenged for it helps us as preppers/homesteaders. A non-prepper may certainly have critical thinking which prove flaws in our thinking. They may think about something that we haven't planned for.
old guard

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11/25/2012 08:31 AM
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Re: Last minute tips for parents when the SHTF
Link to thread?
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 1110734
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11/25/2012 12:25 PM
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Re: Last minute tips for parents when the SHTF
I started a new thread called: Human survivability with supply chain disruptions and its effect on populations

I hope that some of you will visit that topic as I'm hoping it will inspire people to comment on how many people will die in the short and long-term, and how that will change preparedness.

It's also a place to challenge the possibility that it will happen at all, for perhaps a collapse is not likely in some people's minds, or they believe that the government could handle managing such a crisis.

I'll hope you'll weigh in. This is not to convince people to prepare whatsoever, but to have a rational dialogue about:
1. What would happen?
2. Is it possible or probable or plausible?
3. What are the ramification?
4. Is preparedness flawed?
5. How well do you think the government would manage resources and people to solve the issue of feeding and watering so many?

ETC.

I hope that if you support prepping, that you'll behave and speak using reason and not prosthelytize. There are benefits to being challenged for it helps us as preppers/homesteaders. A non-prepper may certainly have critical thinking which prove flaws in our thinking. They may think about something that we haven't planned for.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 1110734

Link:
Thread: Human survivability with supply chain disruptions and its effect on populations

Please detail your answers, not just write some things brief. Let's do an analysis. Most answers at GLP are extremely brief and come off like opinion, and hence not very persuasive. The typical answers do NOT look at many facets of the issue.
Anonymous Coward
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11/25/2012 12:26 PM
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Re: Last minute tips for parents when the SHTF
Christmas Gift Ideas

Here's a couple of ideas for Christmas. They include luxury items. Some are geared toward little gear kits for camping. Other are home-made device.

Most people have a passion of one kind or another. Don't give people prepper things, unless they are a prepper. Give people practical gifts that will help them live easier instead. It's the same thing, but the latter will be more welcomed.

Delicious gifts

Biscotti is a wonderful cookie that is sweet and fulfilling and stores well. It's not difficult to make. It does seem more fancy since it's purchased in specialty stores with European goods.
[link to allrecipes.com]

Every year people get chocolate truffles. They're delicious and fast to make(about an hour actual preparation time). Dark chocolate in moderation, is good for the heart due to antioxidants.
[link to www.foodnetwork.com]

Tea kits. Purchase a small French press. They make ones for camping. Then buy 2-3 boxes of high quality tea for healing from Traditional Medicinals. Their products are quite extraordinary. I have many many of their teas since I've consistently have had good luck with their blends for various illnesses.
[link to www.traditionalmedicinals.com] Other kinds of teas can be purchased like a good Sri Lankan tea, or an excellent smoky tasting tea like Lapsang souchong, or something simple like mint.
[link to en.wikipedia.org] Put in there that black teas can have just as much caffeine if allowed to steep, something most people don't know. That's helpful since many people have leftover tea in their homes because it's not as popular, but don't realize that in an emergency they can deal with a caffeine headache with tea.

You can do the same for unroasted coffee beans with the French press. The kit will include how to roast the beans and illustrate how the beans will stay fresh (2-10 years) versus ground coffee. Get them a hand mechanical grinder, not electric.

Practical gifts
Make a rocket stove of small and medium sizes with used up cans. Very simple. You can do this.
[link to www.youtube.com (secure)]
It produces very intense heat with minimal seasoned wood. It's ideal for camping because big fires are not good for cooking in camping situation. It's a great emergency use stove.

Make a very quickly constructed book safe. This is an inexpensive and useful gift. Find an old book at the Salvation Army store with an interesting cover.
[link to www.youtube.com (secure)]

A Brita filter w/Pitcher makes a good gift that purifies water all in one for someone that drinks a lot of bottled water.

Nalgene bottles for water/food storage

A stainless steel camping pot. Many are included in camping cooking kits.
Purchase a picnic basket and a Coleman enamelware set (about $30). Very practical, helpful to reduce breakage, easy to clean, durable, facilitates family closeness, etc.

A Coleman camp stove and fuel.

A tarp and a blanket. The tarp has a gazillion uses like catching rainwater or being the groundcover for a tent, but illustrate them putting it down and then placing the blanket for sitting outside picnicking or outdoor concerts.

Woven reed beach mats are sooooo practical. They're light; they repel becoming dirty; simple to carry. One of very best things for camping but most people don't use them. Very good kid item for use playing outside.

Kid items
Fresnel lens and case for examining Nature close up and starting fires. Demonstrate how hot it can get. It's way better than a magnifying lens. For people afraid they will start fires....ummm why? It's not like matches. I doubt they'll start and accidental fire this way. Children need to learn how to start a fire and this is a good skill and the easiest means of teaching them.

A blank journal and a kid friendly book on it. It should talk about creating short term practical goals and reading those goals every day in order to work toward achieving them.

A good durable portable chess set and a teaching book. Learning the art of war and strategy is immensely useful.

A good lockblade to prevent the knife from folding back on the user's fingers.
Meadow
User ID: 1560850
United States
11/25/2012 12:50 PM
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Re: Last minute tips for parents when the SHTF
I must admit I didn't read the entire thread. If this has already been posted, it won't hurt to post it again.

I suggest to parents of infants and toddlers still in diapers, you better prepare. For what? Weeks, possibly months with no Pampers.

While you can, buy some flannel sheets, and cut them up in squares. Tuck them in the hundreds of plastic Walmart bags I know everyone collects. While you're at it, pick up a few roles of the best duct tape money can buy.

Flannel sheets - diapers. The plastic bags will serve as water proof pants, and the tape will hold the bags in place.

No jokes, okay. Not unless you think a shitty diaper is funny in the middle of no where, and Mommie is out of Huggies and Pampers.

Better pick plenty of diaper wipes as well. They come in handy.

Wake up !
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 1110734
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11/25/2012 01:24 PM
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Re: Last minute tips for parents when the SHTF
I must admit I didn't read the entire thread. If this has already been posted, it won't hurt to post it again.

I suggest to parents of infants and toddlers still in diapers, you better prepare. For what? Weeks, possibly months with no Pampers.

While you can, buy some flannel sheets, and cut them up in squares. Tuck them in the hundreds of plastic Walmart bags I know everyone collects. While you're at it, pick up a few roles of the best duct tape money can buy.

Flannel sheets - diapers. The plastic bags will serve as water proof pants, and the tape will hold the bags in place.

No jokes, okay. Not unless you think a shitty diaper is funny in the middle of no where, and Mommie is out of Huggies and Pampers.

Better pick plenty of diaper wipes as well. They come in handy.

Wake up !
 Quoting: Meadow 1560850

Meadow,
Thanks for participating, and especially for MacGuyvering and thinking about this issue. Well done.

The main-most issues with diapers are three fold:
1) Not just babies use diapers, but many elderly people and special-need children. In a collapse, many people will be living with you as you'll have aging parents coming to stay, relatives, friends, etc.

When elderly people are relocated, it becomes obvious that they've been dealing with issues that you're not aware of. When an elderly person moves out of their normal environment, then their routine is disrupted, and a result can be incontinence. It's common.

Not only that, but the transitional membranes that makes up the bladder weakens as people age. It's a stretchy form of cellular tissue, and like a ballon that gets stretched too often with strain or age, it weakens.

This often happens to healthy women upon exercise and strain. You might be as young as your 20's and notice it. If you're carrying a lot of firewood or a backpack, and female or elderly, then you might notice minute (or more) amounts of leakage. This will surprise a lot of you.

2)How to sanitize in the absence of lots of hot water, washing machine agitation, dryers, etc? Get a diaper pail now. You can make one in a bucket, but a pail is larger normally. Get some pool shock, not bleach. Bleach goes bad after a set period of time. Pool shock is condensed and made upon demand. Let the diaper material (flannel in this case) plus diaper pants (the covering) if you have them, then sanitie BOTH as a pre-wash.

3)While mostly the issue is urinary, it could be fecal. Stress causes changes in bowel movements. You must carefully treat all fecal matter for diapering because there's a great potential for anaerobic bacterial infections which are DEADLY in a collapse. We're not just worried about diaper rash. This means a lot of soap and hot-water, and the latter takes a lot of time. This means a rocket-stove for certain to save firewood and time, plus a large kettle to make boiling water quickly.

Expect things like accidental bedwetting by older children from nervousness and FEAR. Very unusual violence could be happening.

Note: on the flipside, there's a high potential for constipation and greatly reduced urine output from dehydration and lack of proteins.
1) Constipation is probably the most common thing I've seen in children and adults while camping. It's messy to use the bathroom when not using toilets. This means most people will go less often, and could result in impactions and simply poor health or a lot of discomfort on long hikes.

2)Less drinking water means concentrated urine. Higher chances of bladder infections. Less protein means reduces amines for the body to scavange to transform into ammonia, so reduced output.
Alexander

User ID: 15635858
United States
11/25/2012 01:39 PM

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Re: Last minute tips for parents when the SHTF
Here is another thread on basic essentials (heat/light/sanitation).

Thread: When the lights go out
The truth is incontrovertible. Malice may attack it, ignorance may deride it, but in the end, there it is.
Winston Churchill
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 1110734
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11/25/2012 01:59 PM
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Re: Last minute tips for parents when the SHTF
Here is another thread on basic essentials (heat/light/sanitation).

Thread: When the lights go out
 Quoting: Alexander


Thanks Alexander!

Common medical complaints in a survival situation: menstrual cramping

Menstrual cramps are caused because of the cyclical shedding of the uterine lining. The body must build up a blood supply to this tissue, so naturally for recycling it closes off this blood supply later since the tissue is being shed. This is called vasoconstriction. Then compounds are released which cause uterine contractions. Everyone knows to have midol, but if you didn't, the active ingredients are comprised of a pain reliever, caffeine to potentate it and to help people void and reduce bloating (fluid retention), and an antihistamine.

Licorice root tea is very fine for menstrual cramps and provides pain relief. It's not hard to grow and has many uses, but use caution with people with heart issues.
[link to www.gardenguides.com]

Valerian is a very good perennial to grow. The roots provide both pain relief and calmness since it causes sedation. “Taking the edge off” is a very helpful herbal property for many things like nervousness. [It does smell bad growing in the garden, and it attracts mice and rats. Since you might need to feed your pets anyway, grow it far from the garden, then trap them.]

Ginger can easily be grown from ginger root remnants and reduces the prostaglins that cause pain in menstrual cramping. So does raspberry leaf tea. It would be wisdom to plant raspberries. Buy some tea for now.

Many many herbs are diuretics, probably most. Black tea stores well and cheaply provide caffeine and diuresis.

See previous postings on stinging nettles made into a tea used as an antihistamine. It's naturally a diuretic. It's one of the best herbs to learn to forage for.
[link to www.naturalnews.com]

I don't know you, but since all women in a household will eventually menstruate at the same time (very interesting phenomena, isn't it?), then knowing how to help them every month is a skill that any shaman with a lick of sense will learn. They'll be grateful, and you'll be a hero.
Anonymous Coward
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11/25/2012 02:04 PM
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Re: Last minute tips for parents when the SHTF
Growing Valerian for calmness

[link to www.motherearthliving.com]

[link to hermionesgarden.blogspot.com]

Remember, don't grow it directly in your main garden, but create a patch on the periphery of you land for this specific purpose. Then trap any mice or rats it attracts as pet food. You don't have to MacGuyver it, use routine store-bought traps, but bucket traps (see previous postings) will catch WAY MORE.
Anonymous Coward
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11/25/2012 02:22 PM
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Re: Last minute tips for parents when the SHTF
Helpful healing exercises: Kegel exercises

All people can benefit from learning Kegel exercises. When urinating, stop and start your voiding, and this action strengthens the bladder muscles that make up the pelvic floor. The health benefits are numerous, but chiefly:
1) it tones the penis and increases the strength of an erection and temporarily increases girth
2) it reduces premature ejaculation, helpful for reducing pregnancies when combined with doing the basal temperature/rhythm/vaginal mucus method of birth control
3) it reduces incontinence
4) the action tones the vaginal walls and vastly increases sexual pleasure

You can do the exercise any time you're sitting by concentrating on that muscle and deliberating tensing and relaxing it.

People are very embarrassed about these issues, and as a shaman you want to be sensitive and supportive. Be relaxed and matter-of-fact. The exercises will seem strange to some, but makes sex very enjoyable, and who doesn't want to improve this wonderful part of the abundant life?
Anonymous Coward
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11/25/2012 05:37 PM
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Re: Last minute tips for parents when the SHTF
The instability created by returning veterans who can't find employment

At one time, many of our nations created things and provided services. In time, many nations decided to enter into Free Trade agreements. This fostered economic investment in nations with lower development, and in time, many industries relocated to these countries. That transferal of jobs resulted in a transformation of many Western nations. The loss of the product producing jobs was countered by a rise in service industry jobs...for a time. Since many corporations were purchased by large corporations that had invested in the relocation of product-producing jobs, it was relatively simple to also create service industry jobs in these new places. Western nations saw a loss of both kinds of jobs and higher unemployment and instability.

For a large amount of time, many nations have invested in military spending. Now with such high deficit spending, and since defense spending truly produces no income on its own, military cutbacks are inevitable. Investment in defense has always been at the forefront of technology, but without a transferal to civilian use, it has no value as an income producing industry.

In history, the only way defense spending generated wealth was by sacking cities and taking their wealth. Or the rebuilding of their infrastructure post-war was a means of creating stability and generating the sale of products (from the winners) towards that rebuilding effort. The fear was a loss of leadership coupled with a loss of infrastructure would lead to chaos and revolution.

Where will all these returning veterans work with a hammered global economy, and a push for decreasing government spending, and an increase in corporate and business taxes, and an increase in healthcare costs driving a reduction in worker's hours or even a lesser need for workers at all?

Historically, returning veterans without work or an ability to purchase property and begin agriculture, became very problematic for the stability of their nations. Today many returning veterans re-enter the workforce instead. Remember that many who entered military service don't do it as a career, but as a means of getting education and experience for future employment. They sublimated their desire for income by military service, promises of a future, and patriotism. It's certain to create conflict, don't you think?

We already have 46 million in the US on food assistance and other government benefits. Many have had multiple extensions, and now that the elections are over, and benefits are being allowed to lapse. This also will cause instability, and even homelessness. It also will push many to seek employment actively, and put more strain on the job market with employers unlikely to hire folks due to taxes and the health care programs, and many workers competing for the same jobs.

You might not realize it, but many retirees are working and collecting their Social Security benefits plus their pensions. Why? The rate of inflation has diminished the value of these fixed benefits. Those checks don't go as far and purchase smaller amounts of the same things. Likewise many people have lost wealth as a result of a drop in value of their variable investments in the stock market and mutual funds. Since retirees hold major portions of that wealth and lost wealth, many have gone back to work, and younger people are also competing with retirees.

In many cases, traditional youth jobs in the service industry are being done by retirees. In addition 50% of college graduates are working in service jobs and underemployed (not full-time) and not in their area of expertise. Many of these workers are seeing a cut-back in their hours due to Obamacare.

There are major unemployment and underemployment pressures now, and the returning veterans may be the straw that broke the camels back.
[link to www.presstv.ir]
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 1110734
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11/25/2012 05:45 PM
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Re: Last minute tips for parents when the SHTF
Farmers' and Inheritance Taxes

Many folks don't realize it, but laws have changed for farmers and their families. They're rich on paper since they own large tracts of land, but we all know that most farmers don't make much money. In fact recently they're lost quite a bit of money due to the drought. It's hard enough to hang on since it's such a gamble with weather and competition from other countries, but now we really screwing around with any chance that a farmer upon their death could pass along the farm to their families.

Fewer and fewer young people desire this kind of life because it's so difficult and demanding, and yet we pull this stunt to ruin the chances of the few that remain? It's nonsensical.

Since corporations are not likely to sell their farm property since it's appreciating, and corporate farms make up the bulk of farming in the USA, then really you're actually accelerating the transfer from private farming to corporate farming.

It doesn't bode well for food security whatsoever, and destroys wealth.
[link to usatoday30.usatoday.com]
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 1110734
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11/25/2012 06:30 PM
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Re: Last minute tips for parents when the SHTF
Identification

Identification of any species is quite difficult. Lots of people make errors and attempt to consume a species or use it for medicine, and that is very unwise without a mentor. Even still, experts make mistakes, sometimes deadly ones.

I'm not trying to discourage you. Far from it, but I know a couple that were on vacation, and one got a small burn on themselves, perhaps as a result of a curling iron. The man found what he thought was aloe, and she applied it, and ended up getting a very bad chemical burn from whatever fluids it exuded in its stem. Very imprudent.

It takes lots and lots of research to verify and reverify, and compare pictures with standard grow lengths, and climate and known occurance in a area, and microscopic analysis, and blah, blah, blah. Be careful.

For people homeschooling, explore your land and see what you can find that naturally grows there, but first begin purchasing seeds and transplants and then study them well for use on the table,for medicinals, and for educating yourself and your children.

Plants change in appearance based upon maturity, amount of light, moisture, pH, season, etc. Learning what they look like in all seasons is the goal.

If you find a species, take pictures and bring specimens to an expert. You don't just look at one aspect of the plant, but often certain plants have distinquishing features that maybe you didn't notice, or that are unclear in one book. Look at several.

Here's one online source, but I encourage you to be an active researcher. If you know what a species is, then still make your children look it up, that is if the intention is not merely to learn but to KNOW it.
[link to www.first-nature.com]

There's lots of scientific indentification sites. Go find them now...
Anonymous Coward
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11/25/2012 09:12 PM
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Re: Last minute tips for parents when the SHTF
Why I think far more people will die in a collapse in the first few weeks

When I was young, I saw a documentary about fire troopers. They're the brave souls who rush into a forest that's on fire to help control it. They sure can't put it out. I'd never thought of that before. It made sense. There's so much fuel, oxygen, and lots of sparks, how could they hope to haul enough chemicals and water to extinguish it?

So how did they do it? They deliberately burned a zone in front of the fire's direction. The fire must seek new unburnt fuel to continue. It can't go back, 1)unless it burns roots underground and travels that way, or 2)jumps across a zone like an extinguished match will reignite when above a fire. This deliberately burned area is called a firebreak.
[link to farm6.staticflickr.com]
It doesn't always work, but it works a lot of the time.

Over here, we're talking about urban areas and the need for supply chains to provide food to cities, and supplies to purify water, and supplies to run the utilities or transportation.
Thread: Human survivability with supply chain disruptions and its effect on populations

Now earlier this week, I posted an image of population density and discussing why I felt that the Northeast was particularly in a rough spot for bugging out.
[link to mapcollection.files.wordpress.com]

I want you think about why these areas are so dangerous when the SHTF and moving toward collapse. As people began to realize that the government cannot move fast enough to source water, food, fuel, and generators plus soldiers and technicians to an affected area, then people will either bug in or bug out. The ones who bug in are either a)preppers or b)hardy souls who are trying their best or c)sociopaths hoping to loot enough. The ones who leave (bugging out) are either a)preppers who feel it's hopeless b) refugees c)sociopaths looking for survival and hoping to live off of fleeing people.

Either way, as people leave they can only take enough food, water, supplies, and themselves to perceived safe zones. At some point, they'll run out of some supply, most likely fuel first. Or they might get stuck in the world's worse mass traffic jam. Of course the people ahead of them have also taken their stuff. It's a domino effect for the people in the back. Whoever is in the front of the line, might make it.

Those who stayed will see a lot of brief violence as non-preppers seek loot and survive for a time. I imagine that smart mayors and critical infrastructure folks who are trying to maintain order will commandeer supplies and pay through promissory notes to merchants. This means a lot of things which are very valuable will be taken and unable to be looted. It's the logical thing to do.

Think of supplies as fuel as a metaphor. If the supplies are taken like a fire trooper creates a firebreak, then the fire will burn out. Sociopaths who intend to loot will find less and less, and unless skilled unable to source more. They'll die of dehydration and starvation, not to mention illness and violence. Truthfully the lack of water and fluids will kill most.

Those who bugged out will also be unable to source supplies and that fire (coming from the Horde of refugees) will burn out.

I truthfully think that if you have even a month or two of supplies, that if you can consume them and not have them taken, that most of the unorganized refugees and sociopaths will perish during that period.

That's not enough however, and this is why I've been putting up tips. There are lots of supplies around us, but with current population levels, the areas are not adequate enough...based upon the carrying capacity. Those who bug-in may survive longer than 2 months if they have even more supplies, skills, and seed. As the sixth month mark comes around, very few refugees and sociopaths will still be alive...only the hardest toughest ones, and hence extremely dangerous.
Anonymous Coward
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11/25/2012 09:56 PM
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Re: Last minute tips for parents when the SHTF
Why I don't believe gangs can loot enough to survive

Let's say a gang goes house to house robbing from each apartment owner. They're liable to knock down doors with home-made battering rams (similar to SWAT teams), and merely brandish arms, for to shoot means possible death on both sides and loss of ammunition. Easy pickins' to steal; risky to shoot at close quarters and penetration.

As they accumulate wealth (an abundance of supplies in this case) and valuables, then they'll get loaded down by them. They have to either a)hole up in one of the other apartments, or b)have a wheelman and a vehicle in the form of a truck to haul their loot back to a headquarters.

The former means it's probably not any more defensible than the other apartments, it's just that they have more weapons. This means at some point, when they sleep or are high (both very likely), others will see their wealth and steal from them, because they concentrated all of it in one location.

The latter means transporting it down to the vehicle, at which point it'll probably be stolen as it's being moved to the street, or else as it accumulates at their headquarters, then it's all concentrated at that place....a lot of wealth. Now unless they know strategy and have a bunker with machine guns, it'll be taken, either from any police or soldiers left standing, or another gang since they have the loot they need.

In that case, a large portion of them will be annihilated by the other on either side and huge amounts of ammunition will be used, but tear gas and flash bang grenades are more likely since both sides wish to not waste ammunition. It may be easier to simple burn them out, for there's no rules anymore. It's a loss of supplies, but removing the threat is probably better. It's that or a siege just like medieval times, and this means manning it 24/7.

All of that is contingent upon enough firearms, ammunition, affiliated gang members, a working vehicle, and fuel sources. That's a tall order.

Most won't know how to source water other than stealing it. Even if they have a great location up high such that they can maintain lookouts, then they'll have sewage issues, won't they?They'll be forced to leave. Even at ground level, that will become a major issue, and people will get sick quick, just like they have in the history of warfare in conflict zones.

Highly organized crime families are a different breed altogether. They could survive since they have power structure, connections, more arms, supplies, but they don't have survival skills. They will run into the same issues of clean water and sanitation. In both cases of organized crime or gangs, there's liable to be a coup d'etat to knock out the current boss. Maybe a series of them as conditions deteriorate.

Actually, I think a lot of gang members will run, for they'll see the handwriting on the wall, and they'll either think a) start my own thing b) get the heck out of Dodge.

The only way I can see sociopaths making it, will be if they locate and seize supplies early from a warehouse or series or warehouses. These are most likely to be commandeered by local governments and law enforcement/soldiers, aren't they?

Is there something I'm not seeing?
Anonymous Coward
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11/25/2012 10:26 PM
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Re: Last minute tips for parents when the SHTF
If you'd like to see what a collapse is like, and the aftermath with martial law imposed, read:

[link to www.cgsc.edu]

It's a long 280+ document on Hurrican Katrina's military response.
Anonymous Coward
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11/25/2012 10:44 PM
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Re: Last minute tips for parents when the SHTF
In Winter, your attic can be your temporary root cellar

Some foods (root crops like potatoes, onions, carrots, beets, etc) plus cold loving crops like cabbage) store extremely well in a root cellar. By definition a root cellar is an underground structure that maintains a constant temperature of 55 degrees F or thereabouts due to the temperature of the Earth. The problem is you have to excavate it, and that's not possible for most folks right now either for time or city codes or whatever.

A lot of people have attics and these can get quite cold in Winter. Too cold without something to insulate these foods, for it can be as cold as 2-3 degrees F higher than the outside temperature. This does mean though that one could store some food items up there. It's not a bad place as long as you watch the temperature closely.

Some people have unfinished attics. Of course there are rafters, but no horizontal flooring. In a pinch, a sheet of plywood can be rapidly screwed down, and as long as you're careful about weight distribution, you can store quite a bit up there.

Oxygen is the enemy of freshness. It allows foods to go stale. It's why burying root crops in sand works.
Thread: THE HOW TOO THREAD FOR SAND STORAGE OF VEGTABLES AND OTHER THINGS. FOOD TO LAST ALL YEAR...!
If course you can vacuum seal things too. Or you put them in buckets throw in an activated hand warmer (they work by oxidation) and they'll use up the oxygen in your bucket.

It's only temporary, but might help some folks. Here's someone using an unheated attic in this way:
[link to www.suntimes.com]

The link below gives temperature ranges for the most common items you could store, and so you'd have to insulate some to achieve best preservation through refrigeration for your items.
[link to extension.missouri.edu]
Anonymous Coward
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11/28/2012 06:40 AM
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Re: Last minute tips for parents when the SHTF
Preparedness is self-directed

Having been caught in a ban recently, I think I'm done. I hope this topic has been helpful to anyone who likes to prepare. I think on average, it took me two hours of every day to create postings that would be genuinely helpful in any disaster, or merely to live life to the fullest by practical skill use. It was my contribution to GLP as a way of paying back mentors and kindness that others showed to me.

Real preparedness is self-directed, isn't it? Don't expect to read something and then by absorption gain knowledge to aid yourself when the SHTF. Instead of reading my posts, and using me as a crutch, or as an idea generator, stop learning and start thinking, experimenting, researching your own ideas.

Become a cook not watch cooks on television. Exercise, don't watch athletes perform sports on TV. Grow a garden, don't buy everything at the grocery store. It's pretty simple.

All people suspect that a disaster can happen to them based upon a loss of resources. Those kinds of doom will happen to you in your lifetime. I guarantee it. Having prepared for them YOURSELF will make a more fully actualized human being.

Hard work and sweat makes muscles, increases dendrites in the brain to realize connections, and brings joy. Only you can do it.
Vic-chick13

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Canada
11/28/2012 11:22 AM

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Re: Last minute tips for parents when the SHTF
Thanks for all the great info. Much appreciated.
wavewave
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12/02/2012 09:19 AM
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Re: Last minute tips for parents when the SHTF
Two quick things:

If you can't put in a well for some reason, there's a good chance you can put in a dew collector (fog fence). It's a little known method of collecting water from the air based upon dew point.
See: Thread: If the drought persists and you must find water, make a dew collector

I posted this in another topic. It's a study of supply chain disruptions in the event of an economic collapse of the EURO. I was surprised that someone else was thinking along the same lines as myself. They also believe such an event would spread disruptions globally.
See:
[link to www.feasta.org]
I urge you to read that report carefully, for any supply chain disruptions will probably be the cause of the initial chaos.
old guard

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12/03/2012 08:39 PM
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Re: Last minute tips for parents when the SHTF
Sad to hear you want to go, AGAIN. Everyone needs to hear your message....repeated over and over.
I have followed from the beginning.bump
Anonymous Coward
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12/03/2012 09:17 PM
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Re: Last minute tips for parents when the SHTF
Sad to hear you want to go, AGAIN. Everyone needs to hear your message....repeated over and over.
I have followed from the beginning.bump
 Quoting: old guard


I'm tired of being banned. I understand banning someone for breaking rules. Since no one has ever bothered to answer my polite requests to unban me, not explain the rules in a single stickied spot, then I'm at a loss as to why I've been banned five times over the course of a year and a half.

I'm guessing that I post too much and most of those long posts are here.

The reality is too many people read and don't follow through. I've met tons of would-be preppers who have books on topics as an insurance policy, but then can't show me a common herb in the field. That worries me. The idea is to facilitate learning, not reading....
Anonymous Coward
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12/08/2012 01:04 AM
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Re: Last minute tips for parents when the SHTF
Read and broaden your horizons

Since many people are cutting expenses, I thought I'd pass along a tip. Many public libraries now feature a way that you can temporarily read an ebook from your Kindle or computer by having a state website to download a pdf through Overdrive. You should definitely check that out as it may be the best means of educating yourself in this economy. It saves you the gas to drive to the library, plus the overdue fees.

[link to www.overdrive.com]

Please read:
One Second After by William Forstchen
excerpts:
[link to books.google.com]


A World Made by Hand by James Howard Kunster
excerpts:
[link to books.google.com]


Both books will broaden your horizons. They lay out plausible scenarios. If you read them, I guarantee it will change how you think and prepare.
Anonymous Coward
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12/08/2012 01:22 AM
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Re: Last minute tips for parents when the SHTF
Another book that can be freely read is:

A Will To Survive
[link to awilltosurvive.blogspot.com]

It is impossible to read that ebook without imagining how you yourself would deal with those issues.
Anonymous Coward
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12/08/2012 07:00 AM
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Re: Last minute tips for parents when the SHTF
Staying calm when all around you seem to be losing it

We're approaching a seasonally rough period with Christmas right around the corner, as well as the hyped Mayan 2012 business, Nibiru, etc. You need to be taking good care of yourselves, doing something that energizes but also relaxes you. A lot of people may end up needing your help in the days to come; hopefully not, but it's within the realm of possibility.

Find things that center you. Everyone needs something greater than themselves. It might be a cause or spirituality. Do what works best for you.

Find some quiet time to reflect as well as finish up your planning. Try to wake up 30 minutes early as witness a sunrise, or pay special attention to a sunset. Light some candles to make family time more special. Do things that build you up.

If we have some event, particularly at Christmas and with the Winter, then a lot of people will be especially stressed out. They'll react in a wild manner. You on the other hand will be calm and respond appropriately. Clear headed people are needed most during an emergency when everyone else is running around like chickens who just had their heads cut off.

Don't be infected by their bizarre reactions.

If you do have to respond with strength, don't waste a lot of time trying to convince people, but be decisive. Actions speak louder than words. Imagine what they need, and respond to that need, not to what they are saying.

We are a tribal people at heart, who have altered our natural inclinations of building warm fire with firewood we chopped and raising animals and crops, and become shadows of what we could be. It causes an existential crisis in humanity, and when stressed, that warrior spirit exerts itself for dominance. Be a soldier instead: trained, disciplined, calm, focused.
Anonymous Coward
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12/08/2012 11:50 PM
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Re: Last minute tips for parents when the SHTF
If the SHTF, and you still had some sweetner, you probably could make sassafras mead in small amounts. Sassafras grows all over the USA and the roots are easy to get too.
[link to books.google.com]

Go easy on it, because too much of any herb can be harmful. Creoles commonly drank Sassafras Mead. Quaffing an occasional glass is not going to hurt you.

It might be an excellent trade item.
Anonymous Coward
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12/09/2012 12:51 AM
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Re: Last minute tips for parents when the SHTF
Reports of people maxing out their credit cards

I haven't heard of this happening ...yet, but it's something to expect to happen. Most people don't prepare whatsoever. You've probably been in a grocery store as news hits of an approaching storm, and seen a lot of people begin to act strangely. Some people don't have adequate funds to purchase what they need, so they use the float period on a credit card to purchase emergency items.

If you begin to witness this happening this Christmas season, or hear reports of it from friends or the Internet, then it's a sign. It has more validity if it's happening by reasonable people, particularly if in a critical infrastructure role.

In an emergency, some people in leadership will have a "better safe than sorry" attitude. What could happen is a major tells his staff to "stock up on food or water", or a leader in a utility company, or a hospital administrator says something to staff members. If you see those folks stocking up, then you should carefully think of your supplies, think of deficits in your preparedness, and then buy what you need.

Minimize things that you want versus need. Especially limit perishable or impulsive items.

Remain calm. A lot of people will overeact. Others will notice and a frenzy will overtake more. Then that will get noticed. Already there are reports in Russia and China. The media loves this kind of human interest story as filler. It will happen in Western countries too.

Everyone loves to be suddenly respected for prepping. I urge you to be calm and careful about detailing what you have stored up. Be low-key.

Most probably all of this is hype. Use this time wisely instead by learning skills and checking and rechecking stock. Finish up seed purchases. Check your canning supplies. Think of any gardening equipment that would save you money like inexpensive drip irrigation. Think how you would collect rainwater. Don't waste money.

The more people panic, the more people tense up who have prepared. Find some way to chill out and take the operating tempo down. It's like that scene in Aliens where Ripley is speeding away the Armored Personnel Carrier to save everyone and is grinding down the transmission.

Remain calm and stay frosty.

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