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Tropical Depression AL12 (KATIA)

 
Otherness (OP)

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09/06/2011 02:50 PM
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Re: Tropical Depression AL12 (KATIA)
Update 2 PM EST Tuesday September 6, 2011


Weather Reconnaissance flight through KATIA has reported she it is weaker.

No changes in watches or warnings for Bermuda and rip currents on Eastern seaboard.

KATIA is supposed to remain on path through early tomorrow, northwesterly, and then begin it's more northerly then northeasterly direction on Thursday. Through this time the strength of KATIA will fluctuate with weakening expected.

KATIA is still a category 3 hurricane.

[link to www.nhc.noaa.gov]

Well, we'll see if the East Coast should get out the surfboards or the life rafts by Thursday Night!

I am continuing to monitor my models. It appears the remnants of LEE actually may help the East Coast.

Will keep you posted.

Otherness
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Otherness (OP)

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09/06/2011 09:25 PM
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Re: Tropical Depression AL12 (KATIA)
Update 9:11PM September 6, 2011 (From 5PM noaa update)

Well, some interesting news...

Models are picking up a delay at the 72 hour mark for KATIA picking up the westerly flow that will supposedly steer the hurricane out to the Atlantic.

The storm has weakened slightly but is expected to continue in strength and course for 72 hours.

[link to www.nhc.noaa.gov]

I am really starting to think that the models, which predict that this storm will not make a US landfall are going to be incorrect.

The remnants of LEE are supposedly supposed to create a wall and a subsequent High pressure system in the Atlantic. Add in the upper jetstream, which of course flows from West to East. Forecasters have been using this info to say the storm WILL no make a US East coast landfall.

However, upon close inspection I think LEE will clear out leaving a void for KATIA to push even further WEST before it starts its turn North. I am still looking at a possibility of a Fujiwhara effect as I look at the clockwise rotation in the area of Lower Texas as well as the storm that is developing in the South West Gulf.

IMO it is STILL too early to figure this one out, and it may happen that those on the East Coast will get little warning if my suppositions are true. (which I hope aren't)



Otherness
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Anonymous Coward
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09/06/2011 10:22 PM
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Re: Tropical Depression AL12 (KATIA)
I'm thinking the same thing.

I believe all the projections are wrong.

And what will they say? Oops.. sorry, we were wrong?

TPTB saw what happened when we were prepared in advance, and now they want to see what happens if we're not prepared in advance.
Otherness (OP)

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09/07/2011 08:40 AM
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Re: Tropical Depression AL12 (KATIA)
I'm thinking the same thing.

I believe all the projections are wrong.

And what will they say? Oops.. sorry, we were wrong?

TPTB saw what happened when we were prepared in advance, and now they want to see what happens if we're not prepared in advance.
 Quoting: cnova


We'll see. It would be a shame if something happens that it does actually make landfall and nobody had time.

Update 8:25AM September 7, 2011

No changes in watches or warnings.

KATIA still moving along her previous path (315 degrees) and has maintained intensity. Speed is slowing. We are now moving into a very very critical time for this storm. Currently there is a northwestern sheer over KATIA. An eye wall replacement that started 24-36 hours ago has appeared to be interupted but microwave imagery is showing a much larger outer eye wall. KATIA still remains over warm waters.

RECURVE is to happen in 24-36 hours. This is when she will start to turn to a north, then northeasterly direction.
[link to www.nhc.noaa.gov]

OK..so that's the summation from discussions at 5AM. So it appears that by Thursday 5AM through 5PM we shall see if, by their accounts, this storm turns.

I am still monitoring visible and water vapor models from Texas down into the Gulf as there is activity that the models of the pros at noaa may not be incorporating into their forecast. The remnants of LEE are also a consideration and bear a close watch. Stay tuned for more information as it comes. Thanks for your time...have a good day.


Otherness
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Otherness (OP)

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09/07/2011 10:21 AM
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Re: Tropical Depression AL12 (KATIA)
Update 10:18AM EST September 7th, 2011

With regard to the current atmospheric conditions in Texas, over the East Coast and the Atlantic, here is what I am currently researching:

[link to dx.doi.org]

Abstract

A linear mixed layer model that skillfully reproduces observed surface winds and convergence over the tropical oceans is used to examine the relative influence of boundary layer and free-tropospheric processes on the distribution of climatological surface winds and convergence. The semiempirical model assumes a subcloud-layer momentum force balance between pressure gradients, Coriolis acceleration, linearized friction, and downward momentum mixing, and it utilizes boundary conditions from the 40-yr ECMWF Re-Analysis (ERA-40). Observed pressure gradients are linearly decomposed into boundary layer (defined as the region below 850 hPa) and free-tropospheric components, and the surface winds and convergence associated with these components are computed. Results show that surface zonal winds are predominantly associated with a combination of free-tropospheric pressure gradients and downward momentum mixing, whereas the distribution of convergence is primarily due to boundary layer temperature gradients, which are closely related to SST gradients. The authors conclude that the climatological distribution of boundary layer convergence is primarily a function of the pattern of SST gradients and is better regarded as a cause rather than a consequence of deep convection.


Some good reading!



This sheds light on some interesting possibilities.
Check out some of the recent MPEG's from the East and West CONUS.

[link to www.goes.noaa.gov]
The Infrared shows an interesting region from the lower part of South Carolina down to the top half of Florida. Also pay attention to how the flow as it relates to the movement in the South West Gulf, which is feeding into the movement over Texas.

Tie in KATIA to the picture with the influx of air from the North.

It will be interesting how these boundary layers will coalesce!


Otherness
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Otherness (OP)

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09/07/2011 05:40 PM
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Re: Tropical Depression AL12 (KATIA)
Update 5:25 EST September 7th, 2011

KATIA has done pretty much what the professionals have been saying it would do today...change a little more North..and it has from 315 to 320 degrees (estimate), and slow and it has from 10kt to 9KT however....

The official forecast is being nudged NORTHWARD for the next 36 hour window.


[link to www.nhc.noaa.gov]

I am still monitoring several regions that are affecting this storm and still feel confident that the models they are using are not taking into account a strengthening Fujiwhara effect.
I have been talking about a more northwesterly track then present models have been predicting. Today is the first sign that this MAY be the case. I will give updates as well as observations as they become available.


Otherness
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Otherness (OP)

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09/08/2011 07:54 AM
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Re: Tropical Depression AL12 (KATIA)
Update 7:49 EST September 8th, 2011

TURN DAY! (Let's hope)


Overnight KATIA has gained strength. No changes in watches or warnings. She continues to slide more north and is now expected to make her Easterly turn later tonight.
[link to www.nhc.noaa.gov]


Today is the day folks! We'll see how much and how fast the westerlies pick her up and throw her out into the Atlantic.
I am still keeping an eye on the surrounding pressures and TS.

Will be updating more frequently today...stayed tuned to the "otherness" channel"...



Otherness
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alexisj9

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09/08/2011 07:59 AM

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Re: Tropical Depression AL12 (KATIA)
bump
Otherness (OP)

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09/08/2011 11:00 AM
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Re: Tropical Depression AL12 (KATIA)
bump
 Quoting: alexisj9


Thanks for the BUMP! BTW..Off topic, I'm a HUGE Jenson Button fan!

Update 10:51 EST September 8th, 2011

SHE'S TURNING!


KATIA is now on a North (360) degrees direction. Winds are sustained at 90 mph.

Bouy 41048 is showing 25.9 Ft waves. But it's wind direction is 210 degrees from 200 degrees earlier
[link to www.ndbc.noaa.gov]

No new watches or warnings.

I hope this storm continues to move in the Westerly direction as parts of West PA and Upstate NY are currently being inundated with strong rain creating dangerous flash flooding.

My prayers to all in those areas..

Stay tuned for more info..


Otherness
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Otherness (OP)

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09/08/2011 11:13 AM
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Re: Tropical Depression AL12 (KATIA)
[link to www.goes.noaa.gov]


I really don't like the way this satellite loop looks. I hope and pray that KATIA gets going in a more westerly path. I really hope that KATIA does not get caught up in LEE's remnants and gets steered East.

Last Edited by Otherness on 09/08/2011 11:14 AM
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Otherness (OP)

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09/08/2011 12:11 PM
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Re: Tropical Depression AL12 (KATIA)
Interesting note:

RSOE EDIS currently showing KATIA is traveling at 350 degrees vs. 360 degrees. Curious...

[link to hisz.rsoe.hu]
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Otherness (OP)

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09/08/2011 07:40 PM
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Re: Tropical Depression AL12 (KATIA)
UPDATE: 7:15PM Thursday September 8th, 2011

KATIA has passed BERMUDA and is still heading along a true 5 degrees of North at 16mph. The true turn happened today,by my account, between 6AM and 4PM. She is expected to keep on turning slowly across the pond, grow weaker, and head in the direction of the British Isles.

Estimated timeline to British Isles 5 Days.

[link to www.nhc.noaa.gov]

3 Day Outlook (% chance of being classified as)

Tropical
Depression 25%
Storm 51%
Hurricane 14%

This should ease any worries after 5 days...


I hope that the she tracks more West for the sake of those in Western PA and NY. Hopefully those rain bands won't add to an already bad situation.

So there it is folks. She's a heading out to sea and my friends in the Isles get ready for perhaps a brush of a strong system.

I appreciate the comments and KARMA thus far from each of you. I have had fun doing this. Obviously I've had some time on my hands...and that's always a good thing!

Peace,

Otherness
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