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Not only has Elenin slowed... according to JPL... ITS TRAJECTORY HAS CHANGED

 
CalmShock

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09/08/2011 03:58 PM

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Not only has Elenin slowed... according to JPL... ITS TRAJECTORY HAS CHANGED
Ok, so I just read through the "Elenin has slowed" thread and the day it crosses the ecliptic has changed from September 11th to September 13-14... here's the video

[link to www.youtube.com]

So I wondered how that would affect the distance from earth on October 17th... I took a look at the JPL simulator and apparently, the distance INCREASED from what used to be 0.232 au, to 0.234 au...

Now the funny thing is that Elenin crosses earths orbit AHEAD of the earth, so if it slowed on its original path, the earth would be CLOSER to it on October 17th...
The only way the distance of Elenin could have INCREASED is if it changed trajectory!!

Here's a video I found that has it at 0.232au from earth on October 17th (skip to 6:13, the rest of the vid is useless)


And here you can see for yourself the closest it comes October 17th is now 0.234au...

[link to ssd.jpl.nasa.gov]

I'm no astrophysicist, but all of a sudden the perihelion changes by nearly 3 days and so does its closest approach to earth, yet the two do not seem to add up with each other...
Astromut, if you pass through here, feel free to explain this to me in terms I can understand.

Last Edited by CalmShock on 09/08/2011 03:59 PM
Patience is a virtue I just can't wait to achieve - CalmShock
Reboot

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09/08/2011 03:59 PM
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Re: Not only has Elenin slowed... according to JPL... ITS TRAJECTORY HAS CHANGED
bump
"Everything that irritates us about others can lead us to an understanding of ourselves."
Erra

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09/08/2011 04:03 PM
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Re: Not only has Elenin slowed... according to JPL... ITS TRAJECTORY HAS CHANGED
It is really strange if this is totally out of the ordinary.

WOuld love to hear astromuts opinion.

Is it completely unheard of? The slowing down etc for a comet....
WiseManOnceSaid

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09/08/2011 04:05 PM
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Re: Not only has Elenin slowed... according to JPL... ITS TRAJECTORY HAS CHANGED
even NASA said when they initially posted on the Buzzroom that its trajectory is always being affected by unknown factors, and that it "wasn't likely to impact earth, but its trajectory is just a projection"
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Anonymous Coward
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09/08/2011 04:06 PM
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Re: Not only has Elenin slowed... according to JPL... ITS TRAJECTORY HAS CHANGED
It is really strange if this is totally out of the ordinary.

WOuld love to hear astromuts opinion.

Is it completely unheard of? The slowing down etc for a comet....
 Quoting: Erra


Well it makes absolutely no sense since objects SPEED UP as they approach perihelion.

Unless they had the original math wrong.
CalmShock (OP)

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09/08/2011 04:08 PM

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Re: Not only has Elenin slowed... according to JPL... ITS TRAJECTORY HAS CHANGED
It is really strange if this is totally out of the ordinary.

WOuld love to hear astromuts opinion.

Is it completely unheard of? The slowing down etc for a comet....
 Quoting: Erra


From what I understand, it's sort of like a slingshot effect. As the comet approaches the sun, its speed increases so that when it circles around it has enough breakaway speed so it doesn't get pulled into the sun itself...slowing down doesn't make much sense.
Patience is a virtue I just can't wait to achieve - CalmShock
CalmShock (OP)

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09/08/2011 04:09 PM

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Re: Not only has Elenin slowed... according to JPL... ITS TRAJECTORY HAS CHANGED
Then again, this thread is more about how its trajectory must have changed for it to be further from the earth October 17th then originally stated...
Patience is a virtue I just can't wait to achieve - CalmShock
HANGFIRE

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09/08/2011 04:11 PM
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Re: Not only has Elenin slowed... according to JPL... ITS TRAJECTORY HAS CHANGED
bump
madfwaz

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09/08/2011 04:14 PM
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Re: Not only has Elenin slowed... according to JPL... ITS TRAJECTORY HAS CHANGED
bump

OP you are correct an object coming around the sun (or any planet for that matter) would slingshot hell, thats how we got all those probes to jupitar and beyond.
CalmShock (OP)

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09/08/2011 04:19 PM

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Re: Not only has Elenin slowed... according to JPL... ITS TRAJECTORY HAS CHANGED
The only thing I can think of is after the comet reaches perihelion, it begins to pick up more speed then originally thought and crosses earths orbit earlier then anticipated... Thus, making the distance from earth further then the original calculations.
Patience is a virtue I just can't wait to achieve - CalmShock
Anonymous Coward
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09/08/2011 05:03 PM
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Re: Not only has Elenin slowed... according to JPL... ITS TRAJECTORY HAS CHANGED
okay I am confused and that does not happen too often.If its original path was to pass ahead of earth, and now it has slowed and yet somehow it is not going to be any closer to earth defeats all logic. If I drive 50 Mph and pass in front of an oncoming train with 50 meters to spare.If I drop my speed to 45 Mph and neither I nor the train change trajectories there is no way I will still have 50 meters to spare.I smell a rat.
Anonymous Coward
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09/08/2011 05:07 PM
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Re: Not only has Elenin slowed... according to JPL... ITS TRAJECTORY HAS CHANGED
Anonymous Coward
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09/08/2011 05:09 PM
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Re: Not only has Elenin slowed... according to JPL... ITS TRAJECTORY HAS CHANGED
Is it possible that solar wind played a part? Is that even possible?
The Chosen One

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09/08/2011 05:13 PM
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Re: Not only has Elenin slowed... according to JPL... ITS TRAJECTORY HAS CHANGED

 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 1535447


wouldn't this mean that that baby is REAL CLOSE TO US??
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ducati60

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09/08/2011 05:25 PM
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Re: Not only has Elenin slowed... according to JPL... ITS TRAJECTORY HAS CHANGED

 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 1535447


wouldn't this mean that that baby is REAL CLOSE TO US??
 Quoting: The Chosen One


Seems being under intelligent may be gaining more ground.
Go fast or go home
ducati60

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09/08/2011 05:26 PM
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Re: Not only has Elenin slowed... according to JPL... ITS TRAJECTORY HAS CHANGED

 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 1535447


wouldn't this mean that that baby is REAL CLOSE TO US??
 Quoting: The Chosen One


Seems being under intelligent control may be gaining more ground.
 Quoting: ducati60

Go fast or go home
GeekOfTheWeek

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09/08/2011 05:33 PM
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Re: Not only has Elenin slowed... according to JPL... ITS TRAJECTORY HAS CHANGED
Ok, so I just read through the "Elenin has slowed" thread and the day it crosses the ecliptic has changed from September 11th to September 13-14... here's the video

[link to www.youtube.com]

So I wondered how that would affect the distance from earth on October 17th... I took a look at the JPL simulator and apparently, the distance INCREASED from what used to be 0.232 au, to 0.234 au...

Now the funny thing is that Elenin crosses earths orbit AHEAD of the earth, so if it slowed on its original path, the earth would be CLOSER to it on October 17th...
The only way the distance of Elenin could have INCREASED is if it changed trajectory!!

Here's a video I found that has it at 0.232au from earth on October 17th (skip to 6:13, the rest of the vid is useless)


And here you can see for yourself the closest it comes October 17th is now 0.234au...

[link to ssd.jpl.nasa.gov]

I'm no astrophysicist, but all of a sudden the perihelion changes by nearly 3 days and so does its closest approach to earth, yet the two do not seem to add up with each other...
Astromut, if you pass through here, feel free to explain this to me in terms I can understand.
 Quoting: CalmShock


Exactly. I with you on this one. Why would they change it to be further ahead?? I get it, it's the "calm down sheeple, it's slowing yes, but that puts if further out silly" LOL As if we are that dumb. Now either the Sun's gravity has made it turn faster, by slowing down, or we have all the laws of physics totally wrong. Now I'm not the sharpest pencil in the box, but wow, even I can get this one.
OR
It's now under full control of the "galactic federation of light 'cough cough' and is slowing down for a rendezvous". Or we are all insane seeing this.
I love physics. It bonds us eternally, it's what makes our computers work, it's what's in my morning cup of coffee, it's the thing that keeps the universe from vanishing due to lack of belief...
Anonymous Coward
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09/08/2011 05:39 PM
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Re: Not only has Elenin slowed... according to JPL... ITS TRAJECTORY HAS CHANGED
Either way, we will find out soon enough.
AstromutModerator
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09/08/2011 05:40 PM

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Re: Not only has Elenin slowed... according to JPL... ITS TRAJECTORY HAS CHANGED
I hope my reply isn't too technical to understand:
[link to www.godlikeproductions.com]
It applies to the shape of the orbit as well as the timing of any given "event" such as perihelion passage, ascending node passage, perigee distance, etc. A 2-body simulator is an over-simplification of the true orbit, and as the simulator is fed new keplerian elements the results it gives will change.

The keplerian elements at two different epochs may look different, but if you were to account for perturbations from the planets they would actually agree with each other (in fact, you can use more complex software to give accurate keplerian elements at future epochs by taking those perturbations into account; that was the "trick" I used to know months ahead of time that a retrograde double eclipse would happen from SDO's orbital perspective:
[link to www.godlikeproductions.com] ).
astrobanner2
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09/08/2011 05:42 PM
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Re: Not only has Elenin slowed... according to JPL... ITS TRAJECTORY HAS CHANGED

 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 1535447


wouldn't this mean that that baby is REAL CLOSE TO US??
 Quoting: The Chosen One


Seems being under intelligent control may be gaining more ground.
 Quoting: ducati60

 Quoting: ducati60


or bigger than we think...
AstromutModerator
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09/08/2011 05:45 PM

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Re: Not only has Elenin slowed... according to JPL... ITS TRAJECTORY HAS CHANGED
By the way, perigee according to JPL is still at about 7:50 pm GMT on the 16th. It's not going to jump days, we know the orbit to a much higher degree of precision than that. A 2 body sim may give you the wrong results, however.
astrobanner2
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09/08/2011 05:45 PM
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Re: Not only has Elenin slowed... according to JPL... ITS TRAJECTORY HAS CHANGED
I hope my reply isn't too technical to understand:
[link to www.godlikeproductions.com]
It applies to the shape of the orbit as well as the timing of any given "event" such as perihelion passage, ascending node passage, perigee distance, etc. A 2-body simulator is an over-simplification of the true orbit, and as the simulator is fed new keplerian elements the results it gives will change.

The keplerian elements at two different epochs may look different, but if you were to account for perturbations from the planets they would actually agree with each other (in fact, you can use more complex software to give accurate keplerian elements at future epochs by taking those perturbations into account; that was the "trick" I used to know months ahead of time that a retrograde double eclipse would happen from SDO's orbital perspective:
[link to www.godlikeproductions.com] ).
 Quoting: Astromut


wtf
alongtimehere

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09/08/2011 05:46 PM
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Re: Not only has Elenin slowed... according to JPL... ITS TRAJECTORY HAS CHANGED
i think that gravity doesnt exist and what we are experiencing is magnetism and thus it finally makes sense.

im sure astromut will agree with me on this one

Last Edited by alongtimehere on 09/08/2011 05:47 PM
CalmShock (OP)

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09/08/2011 05:46 PM

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Re: Not only has Elenin slowed... according to JPL... ITS TRAJECTORY HAS CHANGED
Ok, so I managed to get some info on how the JPL data may not be as consistent as we'd all like to believe. Apparently the JPL simulator doesn't factor in gravitational effects of the planets until the numbers are plugged in, and as more observations are made of the comet, the more the info gets updated....

Now, it seems odd that we only get privy to this info less then a week before the comet reaches perihelion. IF that's even the case.
Patience is a virtue I just can't wait to achieve - CalmShock
Anonymous Coward
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09/08/2011 05:47 PM
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Re: Not only has Elenin slowed... according to JPL... ITS TRAJECTORY HAS CHANGED
Objects slow down slightly at solar perihelion, due to friction with solar winds. At perihelion, it gets slung around. Don't expect a dramatic increase in speed, until it leaves the sun.
Anonymous Coward
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09/08/2011 05:49 PM
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Re: Not only has Elenin slowed... according to JPL... ITS TRAJECTORY HAS CHANGED
Oh boy now there telling their cargo to fasten their seat belts and also secure their monsters before landing.

You will never forget this one.
alongtimehere

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09/08/2011 05:53 PM
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Re: Not only has Elenin slowed... according to JPL... ITS TRAJECTORY HAS CHANGED
Oh boy now there telling their cargo to fasten their seat belts and also secure their monsters before landing.

You will never forget this one.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 1432653


why does this sound plausible?
Anonymous Coward
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09/08/2011 05:54 PM
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Re: Not only has Elenin slowed... according to JPL... ITS TRAJECTORY HAS CHANGED
By the way, perigee according to JPL is still at about 7:50 pm GMT on the 16th. It's not going to jump days, we know the orbit to a much higher degree of precision than that. A 2 body sim may give you the wrong results, however.
 Quoting: Astromut


Is that the 16th of October you are referring to for perigee with the earth?
CalmShock (OP)

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09/08/2011 05:57 PM

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Re: Not only has Elenin slowed... according to JPL... ITS TRAJECTORY HAS CHANGED
Astro, I asked you about Dr. Byron Glenn and Richard Hoagland in the other thread, but since you're on here now I'd like to hear what you think about that. For those of you that have no idea what I'm talking about...

[link to www.youtube.com]

[link to www.facebook.com (secure)]

and here's an interesting interview with Hoagland about Elenin...
[link to www.youtube.com]
Patience is a virtue I just can't wait to achieve - CalmShock
THE Anonymous Coward!

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09/08/2011 07:01 PM
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Re: Not only has Elenin slowed... according to JPL... ITS TRAJECTORY HAS CHANGED
They are manipulating the data. They may be trying to throw us off. If we think it will be three days off, we will not expect it when it arrives.
Have a great day!
Anonymous Coward
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09/08/2011 07:07 PM
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Re: Not only has Elenin slowed... according to JPL... ITS TRAJECTORY HAS CHANGED
Ok, so I managed to get some info on how the JPL data may not be as consistent as we'd all like to believe. Apparently the JPL simulator doesn't factor in gravitational effects of the planets until the numbers are plugged in, and as more observations are made of the comet, the more the info gets updated....

Now, it seems odd that we only get privy to this info less then a week before the comet reaches perihelion. IF that's even the case.
 Quoting: CalmShock


Because that's bullshit.