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Nip's solar/quake thread

 
Anonymous Coward
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01/22/2012 06:57 PM
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Re: Nip's solar/quake thread
[link to www2.nict.go.jp] well this puppy just keeps coming...... 3rd bump in progress.
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01/22/2012 10:37 PM
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Re: Nip's solar/quake thread
George Ure had this posted on Urbansurvival.com this morning..

First is the arrival of a big blast from the Sun which resulted in an international "Presto Alert" as follows:

Issued: 2012 Jan 22 0756 UTC

:Product: documentation at [link to www.sidc.be]

#------------------------------------------------------------​--------#

# FAST WARNING 'PRESTO' MESSAGE from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #

#------------------------------------------------------------​--------#

An interplanetary shock wave was detected by ACE at 05:15 UT today. The solar wind speed increased from 330 to 400 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) in the post-shock flow reached 33 nT. However, its north-south component was mostly positive and no geomagnetic storm resulted. Currently the IMF magnitude is still high (around 25 nT), so a minor to moderate geomagnetic storm remains possible. The shock was most probably driven by the complex ICME resulting from interacting CMEs observed on the Sun on January 18 and 19. The ICME itself is expected to have only a glancing blow at the Earth. The SEP flux peaked at the shock arrival, but did not reach the event threshold.

That, in and of itself would not be worth noticing, except that we also happened to get a glance at the latest magnetometer readings off the HAARP site (www.haarp.alaska.edu) which show some major excursions down what looks like the 650-NT kind of range.



I mention this because just prior to the Japan quake in March 2011 we saw a similar large excursion before (and during) the quake period.



So, as a result, I'm half expecting a large quake (thinking 6.5 or larger) in the next few days to a
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01/22/2012 11:31 PM
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Re: Nip's solar/quake thread
[link to www.n3kl.org] well we had a LOT of c flares during Jan 22, utc time (8)and just now I checked, we are a few hours into Jan 23 utc, and there is a flare just short of an X right now. I don't have any idea if this will cme or not. Just noting it before I go to bed.

I think this cme period is finally about over, it has run nearly 24 hours now. At least of ingress anyway on the AE index.

[link to www2.nict.go.jp]

The main island of Hawaii, got a 5!

well the soho and stereo images are not new enough to show if there is a CME with this large M flare. OK good night, hitting the sack.
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01/23/2012 04:06 AM
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Re: Nip's solar/quake thread
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov] I woke up from return from ship, hungry so why a bit of juice settles decided to check on the CME boy it is "gone". About 6 1/2 UTC, the wind just SUDDENLY dropped to under 300. Nict is not reporting right now, you won't see t there, but the ACE data is clear.

and the proton flux is almost off the chart. [link to www.n3kl.org]

and for some reason, this is strange, the electron flux at V=2 dropped to the bottom of the chart same time the wind dropped out. It is normal during solar storms for the electron flux to drop, or be depressed, this is due to simply the sensitivity of the instruments. But to just crap out with the wind like that seems really odd to me. [link to www.n3kl.org]

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov] This is reflecting the 8 C flares and just generally more flaring the last couple days, plus the M8.7 or so flare at 3+utc. [link to www.n3kl.org]

Another thing bothering me, is the TEC are DOWN for the last maybe a week and getting lower. Months ago they were up and they had to raise the red color bar up to 80 from 60 from 50 previously. During "my" daytime hours, it had been mostly red! I will check this in the morning again to compare my daytime hours, I am not normally checked this at 2 am. [link to iono.jpl.nasa.gov]

based just on the AE index this solar storm lasted just about almost exactly 24 hours.

And that sunspot that erupted producing the M 8.7 apparently is sending a high velocity CME, 2200 ks a sec towards earth, or a glancing blow. It will slow down a bit. [link to spaceweather.com]

The last CME clusters were about 800 ks,I think, didn't review my notes. this is faster but we shall see when and IF it hits. I have seen some big CME's never show up at all that were earth directed, that is why I say we shall see. Fleet does interrupt some of them, but Esu told me the last one we just had would not be interrupted. I don't know about this one. This last one we just finished is expected to significantly increase the quakes from their studies of the effects.

The new CME seems pretty good sized with the remnant showing on Stereo A here [link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov] there are no images for the first 5 utc hours.

There are earlier images on Stereo B [link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

[link to sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov] Lasco C2

Lasco c3 [link to sohodata.nascom.nasa.gov]
Anonymous Coward
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01/23/2012 10:55 AM
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Re: Nip's solar/quake thread
well although Nict is not updating the density and wind speed, the other images are, and this is the current one. [link to www2.nict.go.jp] I think that new CME will arrive pretty fast, it lifted off at 2000 ks.

the wind is running around 290, and the protons around 4 or so. A bunch of sites are down, like soho, stereo , SDO and haarp. At least they were last time I checked.
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01/23/2012 06:00 PM
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Re: Nip's solar/quake thread
there are again today more than a couple quakes being ignored by glp. 8 or so now. I sorta lost count and I don't want to list them right now. But libya got a 6.2.
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01/23/2012 09:24 PM
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Re: Nip's solar/quake thread
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov] magnetosphere really "STEADY" doesn't really matter that some stuff is still not working on nict.

This continues to be "odd" from my point of view and a few years watching. I was not watching during the last max so perhaps this is all completely normal.

Right now although the data is steady, the bz is a bit down, NOT unusual though, but the AE index is showing a fair amount of stuff coming in, almost like a mini storm.

[link to www2.nict.go.jp] And on BATS R US the polar caps are pretty open. [link to ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov]

I guess this new storm is so fast and full of particles, we have a particle storm hours now on SOHO.
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01/23/2012 10:39 PM
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Re: Nip's solar/quake thread
Ok going to start a posting to continue for this Jan 24 utc period. they are leaving quakes off like crazy already. And at least 8 as I think I mentioned left off on the 23rd. Ok catching up on the missed quakes. from here [link to www.emsc-csem.org]

21:42 utc 69.66 N 141.36 W 33km mb 5.0 NORTHERN ALASKA

21:34 utc 15.30 S 179.30 W 600km mb 5.7 FIJI REGION

18:22 utc 43.78 N 82.79 E 1km mb 4.1 NORTHERN XINJIANG, CHINA

17:31 utc 37.57 N 141.00 E 33km mb 4.7 NEAR EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN

12:13 utc 56.51 N 161.71 W 190km mb 4.3 ALASKA PENINSULA

12:12 utc 49.63 N 163.24 W 25km mb 4.4 SOUTH OF ALASKA

2:21 utc 6.79 S 72.22 E 2km mb 4.7 CHAGOS ARCHIPELAGO REGION

1:40 utc 47.17 N 152.82 E 60km mb 4.5 KURIL ISLANDS

1:33 utc 6.59 S 146.82 E 99km M 4.7 EASTERN NEW GUINEA REG., P.N.G. GFZ

1:09 utc 33.94 N 4.13 E 158km mb 5.0 NORTHERN ALGERIA

1:07 Utc 52.68 N 40.05 E 10km mb 5.3 WESTERN RUSSIA

1:01 utc 42.14 N 128.89 E 22km mb 5.7 JILIN, CHINA

00:57 utc 26.89 N 152.12 E 18km mb 6.0 NORTH PACIFIC OCEAN also reported at 6.8

00:52 utc 20.12 N 159.52 E 15km mb 5.8 NORTH PACIFIC OCEAN

00:50 utc 47.19 S 177.22 E 25km mb 5.0 SOUTH OF NEW ZEALAND NEWS


00:26 utc 40.31 N 142.30 E 60km mb 4.8 NEAR EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
(:-DeeZe

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01/24/2012 10:56 AM
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Re: Nip's solar/quake thread
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

The proton graph is all red.

Hmmmm.
(:-DeeZe

"The love that you withhold is the pain that you carry"

“To live content with small means; to seek elegance rather than luxury, and refinement rather than fashion, to be worthy, not respectable, and wealthy, not rich; to study hard, think quietly, talk gently, act frankly, to listen to stars and birds, to babes and sages, with open heart, to bear all cheerfully, to all bravely await occasions, hurry never. In a word, to let the spiritual unbidden and unconscious grow up through the common. This is to be my symphony.”
.........William Henry Channing
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01/24/2012 11:06 AM
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Re: Nip's solar/quake thread
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

The proton graph is all red.

Hmmmm.
 Quoting: (:-DeeZe


this is because of all the c and m flares with the proton flux. proton flux is not counts, but the vibration rate of the protons.
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01/24/2012 11:27 AM
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Re: Nip's solar/quake thread
[link to www.n3kl.org] well the storm is impending. Huge spike on the goes magnetometer. But so far the storm has Not arrived to be detected by ACE. Huge positive bz a little while ago, that may indicate an arrival soon? This happened about the time the storm is predicted to arrive. ODD to me anyway.

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov] bz went up to about 30 visually on the graph.

[link to www2.nict.go.jp] nothing hitting the Goes satellites yet.

bz has just dropped to 0 and perhaps from the graph a tad below, so my guess is maybe the action is starting.
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01/24/2012 03:44 PM
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Re: Nip's solar/quake thread
Please check this thread. If mods do not pin it, I will, since I have enough now. Waiting to see the reactions for a bit before I do.

Thread: OK SOLAR DATA ON TODAYS CME IS BEING MANIPULATED ON ACE
Anonymous Coward
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01/24/2012 08:27 PM
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Re: Nip's solar/quake thread
well, yesterday there were some craft. Here is a couple images of the big puppies in the first two. this will be removed soon, so if you want any of these, save to computer now. these were on my forum.

[link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov] near bottom left

[link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov] right middle

[link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov] 3 craft
PALback
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01/24/2012 09:39 PM

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Re: Nip's solar/quake thread
Thanks for relaying this information, NIP.

I'm always fascinated by the sun's activity!

Last night I was experiencing bouts of slight imbalance/dizziness.

Lasted for about a couple of hours. I also get the ear pressure feeling--in my left ear--like many others.

I don't know if it's related, but I do believe it a possibility for certain individuals to have an extra sensitivity to this type of thing.

Thanks again,
hf
 Quoting: KoFFee_


ditto
1 John 4:18
There is no fear in love; but perfect love casts out fear, because fear involves torment
Peace_Maker

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01/24/2012 09:42 PM
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Re: Nip's solar/quake thread
The ear ringing just picked up too. Left ear. Northern Va.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 1374158


I'm in Northern VA too but nothing in my ears. Hmmmm!
Oh and I the Sun ray's were very beautiful today. Gosh the sun is so bright and it was beautiful out and felt so good.

Last Edited by Peace_Maker on 01/24/2012 09:44 PM
Can't we all just get along?!
Peace_Maker

Thread: GLP memes
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01/25/2012 12:22 AM
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Re: Nip's solar/quake thread
[link to sohodata.nascom.nasa.gov]

Someone please tell me what all the white fuzz means? I have never seen so much. I know some is stars and some may be sun diving comets but I have never seen so much of it. I have been watching SOHO for a while and I just have never seen it look like this. It looks like something exploded around the sun or something.
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01/25/2012 12:30 AM
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Re: Nip's solar/quake thread
[link to sohodata.nascom.nasa.gov]

Someone please tell me what all the white fuzz means? I have never seen so much. I know some is stars and some may be sun diving comets but I have never seen so much of it. I have been watching SOHO for a while and I just have never seen it look like this. It looks like something exploded around the sun or something.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 7106716


basically massive particles from that particular CME. We do get these now and then, its been a particularly long period this time. They just get labeled "particle storms." This CME was a larger than usual particle ejection, a lot of Matter, in general, a deep CME, rather than a surface CME where the plasma is "thinner."

Somebody saw something hit the sun, reported someplace here and said it looked like an earth sized comet. And then found the images cleaned up. So perhaps something of this sort was behind this huge ejection of matter.
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01/27/2012 11:14 AM
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Re: Nip's solar/quake thread
Not sure if I will track non posted quake on usgs today or not.

but Shortly ago, there is this one: 14:52 Utc. 44.37 N 14.34 E 10 mb 6.6 ADRIATIC SEA
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01/27/2012 02:12 PM
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Re: Nip's solar/quake thread
Ok we have a x flare! just coming down from the peak now, looks about an X2. I have no idea if its ejecting a CME, I just was looking at the graphs, hadn't done that yet today. [link to www.n3kl.org]

Ok THERE is a nice sized CME which CNN just announced is not earth faced. However, they did NOT differentiate between a flare and a CME which are not the same animal even if they come from the same sunspot.

The X Flare is obviously earth directed enough to show above for the GOES satellite to detect it. The CME is on the wrong side of Stereo Behind to be earth directed it appears. The X flare came from 1402 which is just about turned away to the back now. Boy that sun spot has surely been "productive" as it crossed the face of the sun.

The proton flux which was moving down took a turn back up [link to www.n3kl.org]
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01/28/2012 09:46 AM
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Re: Nip's solar/quake thread
well that cme with the X2 produced another particle storm. I am going to wager we will catch an edge of the CME but who knows until and if it happens. Spaceweather says the coronal hole is still to arrive but we had a wind jump I think was the day before yesterday and it may have arrived, the wind seems still too high to be left over from the last cme.

the wind here [link to umtof.umd.edu] is running about 450 vs what ACE is suddenly showing again of being in the 300 range and no data on Nict for wind and protons again. will be paying attention to the news in a couple days to see what it says. they failed on cnn the one time I saw discussion to differential between the X flare and the CME.

[link to www.bartol.udel.edu] I pay some attention for a couple years or so here. Last year during the larger but somewhat mitigated WAVE these dropped out in march/april. again the summer and they are now. I don't know if the Wave has some effect on these or not, just an observation of timing. if you click on each one, you will get a 6 month graph. I am in contact with a solar type scientist in another part of the world who says these do reflect the laps of the WAVE as well as what we do on HI 1 and 2.
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01/30/2012 08:09 AM
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Re: Nip's solar/quake thread
[link to www2.nict.go.jp] well figured earth needed protons last night (they are LOW), and provided some. I have never asked why they always do it about 8 utc, except perhaps to prove its them. I guess we are trying to keep that magnetic reversal from happening until we perhaps get to do a short teaching period, which is being planned. sorry no "dates", although I was given a suggestion of when they were working on.
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01/30/2012 07:39 PM
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Re: Nip's solar/quake thread
we have by appearances a small cme going on right now. Perhaps an edge of that one on the 28th? No change in wind, so far its all protons, around 16 to 18
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02/01/2012 09:53 PM
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Re: Nip's solar/quake thread
Alaska is really have a lot of quakes sort of suddenly, even for it. 425. it sometimes goes over 300 for short periods, but the last couple days has really climbed. Southern Cal is having an increase to.
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02/02/2012 09:46 AM
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Re: Nip's solar/quake thread
well this is a busier day of quakes, my page almost full when I got up, but wait! theres more, let my reporting of the unreported on usgs begin. [link to www.emsc-csem.org]
23:13 utc 17.71 S 167.37 E 10km M 4.7 VANUATU

20:36 utc 57.78 N 102.72 E 10km mb 5.3 IRKUTSKAYA OBLAST', RUSSIA

19:50 utc 32.20 N 173.18 E 15km mb 5.6 NORTH PACIFIC OCEAN ZAMG

19:37 utc 19.75 N 126.73 E 33km mb 5.6 EAST OF PHILIPPINE ISLANDS

18:00 Utc 40.20 S 173.63 E 189km M 4.6 COOK STRAIT, NEW ZEALAND

16:19 utc 60.82 N 46.04 E 275 mb 4.6 NORTHWESTERN RUSSIA

15:05 utc 17.76 S 167.57 E 10km M 4.7 VANUATU

14:04 utc 45.50 N 154.94 E 10km mb 5.7 EAST OF KURIL ISLANDS

14:01 utc 45.88 N 127.19 E 10km mb 5.6 HEILONGJIANG, CHINA

14:01 utc 25.20 N 119.47 E 33km mb 5.6 NEAR THE COAST OF FUJIAN, CHINA

13:57 OK removing this one, usgs FINALLY added it VANUATU

13:55 utc 40.09 N 145.56 E 15 mb 5.9 OFF EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN

13:50 utc 17.81 S 167.79 E 10km M 5.1 VANUATU

13:49 utc 14.85 S 169.73 E 600km mb 6.0 VANUATU

13:48 utc 17.49 S 167.48 E 33km mb 5.3 VANUATU

13:35 utc 9.33 N 159.05 E 15km mb 6.7 MARSHALL ISLANDS REGION

12:29 utc 43.44 N 146.78 E 56km mb 4.6 KURIL ISLANDS

9:16 utc 5.29 S 153.55 E 74km mb 5.0 NEW IRELAND REGION, P.N.G.

7:23 utc 50.16 N 92.05 E 10km mb 5.0 RUSSIA-MONGOLIA BORDER REGION

4:42 utc 38.94 N 54.43 E 15km ML 4.0 TURKMENISTAN
Anonymous Coward
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02/03/2012 09:51 AM
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Re: Nip's solar/quake thread
I just finished the above list this morning. 19 not mentioned on usgs just from the euro med site. I did not look on others. today already there are some too, but I got stuff to do, may or may not list them. there are always several every day.
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02/06/2012 04:23 PM
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Re: Nip's solar/quake thread
Hi everyone, I just found a chinese quake site, in chinese but the numbers are in english there have been 11 6+ quakes since Oct 21, of last year and 9 of them are 7+ these are never on usgs.

[link to www.csndmc.ac.cn]

well on editing, I was wrong, I looked at dates to which I can compare to usgs, as to location and the 2/02/2012 is vanuatu so I guess this site is not purely china.
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02/12/2012 10:13 PM
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Re: Nip's solar/quake thread
I forget to mention the apparently earth directed CME a couple days ago. Feb 10. wasn't really large or fast, we shall see what it does.
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02/13/2012 04:34 PM
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Re: Nip's solar/quake thread
well, california just got a 5.5 or so in a kinda strange area near the north coast.

On going to ttp://www.emsc-csem.org/Earthquake/seismologist.php for comparisons, other quakes go unrecorded, usgs doesn't like putting up quakes I suppose nobody cares about, like North Pacific quakes, of which there are two in very different locations at the same time frame . both around 5.6 or so at 21:04 utc

of the reports there, on the caliquake, two stations reported 5.9 and 6.0. Some of the reports are off shore in location.

19:14 utc 11.91 N 141.80 E 100km mb 4.7 STATE OF YAP, MICRONESIA

17:35 utc 11.48 S 119.38 E 10km M 4.9 SOUTH OF SUMBA, INDONESIA

10:55 utc 32.68 N 99.81 W 10km mb 5.3 NORTHERN TEXAS???????

9:14 utc 26.82 N 178.75 E 5km mb 6.0 A HAWAIIAN ISLANDS REGION

9:24 utc 68.61 N 29.42 E 10 mb 4.5 FINLAND-RUSSIA BORDER REGION MSO

9:39 utc 35.06 N 30.45 E 10 mb 4.4 A EASTERN MEDITERRANEAN SEA
Anonymous Coward
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02/15/2012 10:07 AM
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Re: Nip's solar/quake thread
hmmm I made a post here about the low bz last night, where is it? maybe I hit the cancel button accidently.

Anyway, its still low, not obvious solar storm, this is fleet induced, to get energies to momma. Just copying a post I made here.


The pressure and velocity are slightly elevated, but less than they have been recently. The polarity is the bad part, but reverse polarity is not that bad with the fairly low pressure and velocity. The situation is not optimal, but over-all it is better than it has been most of the time in last few months. Situation normal!
 Quoting: Epic Beard Guy


its letting energies in not recorded by wind and proton counts. the only reason the pressure is barely there, is because of the wind, that is part of the equation to determine the pressure.

the magnetometers are picking up something big time though. [link to www.n3kl.org] can't get on Haarp this morning, but it was surely showing it last night. electron flux involved too: [link to www.n3kl.org]

and last night with the low bz, the KP was 5.
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02/15/2012 10:51 AM
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Re: Nip's solar/quake thread
Not real scientific I know but the dogs here are kinda barking crazily also and that is what they do when there is "interesting" solar coming in.

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