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C2010 /X1 IMPACT PROBABLITIES! SIMULATIONS, LINKS UNTIL SOHO ON THE 23!............ UPDATE 9/16/2011 Stereo B HI -1 shows FRAGMENT GROUP

 
rphunter
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C2010 /X1 IMPACT PROBABLITIES! SIMULATIONS, LINKS UNTIL SOHO ON THE 23!............ UPDATE 9/16/2011 Stereo B HI -1 shows FRAGMENT GROUP
ok great researchers .. why havent you found this yet...

[link to www.bautforum.com]

Read it Carefully then project it onto what you have seen.. ok .. I am not really trying to conving anybody anymore..

FROM THE SITE!!!!!!!!!!!!------------------------------
tony873004
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Location:
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This is an interesting question, so I thought I'd set it up in Gravity Simulator to see if there's any chance of a meteor shower or storm from debris shed by Elenin at perihelion. Elenin crosses Earth's orbit on October 19, and Earth crosses Elenin's orbit 12 days later on October 31. Earth passes 4.6 million km below Elenin's orbital path. So any debris shed by Elenin at perihelion will have to have enough velocity to fall 12 days behind Elenin and travel 4.6 million km vertically. The vertical part is easy. It's got about 50 days from perihelion to the point Earth crosses its path. So it needs a velocity of about 1 km/s.

So I created 100 particles exploding from Elenin in random directions, moving away at 1 km/s. But this wasn't enough velocity to create the 12 day lag. So I pumped up the velocity. It took a velocity of 11 km/s for any particles shed from Elenin to come close to Earth. I don't know anything about the dynamics of the surfaces of comets that get superheated, but I would guess that this too high to be realistic.

The first image shows a cloud of particles fleeing Elenin as it gets superheated from the Sun at perihelion. The particles are escaping in random 3D directions at velocities of 11.5 km/s.

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!-------------------------GOOD NEWS OR PARAMETERS FOR CONCERN??!!------

ALSO .. [I HAD TO LOOK FOR THIS ] BUT ITS PRICLESS IF YOU HAVE KIDS!!! LOL

Problem 10 - The Comet Encke Tail Disruption Event
On April 20, 2007 NASA's STEREO satellite captured a rare impact between a comet and the fast-moving gas in a solar coronal mass ejection. In this problem, students analyze a STEREO satellite image to determine the speed of the tail disruption event.
Grade: 8 - 10 !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Topics:Time calculation; finding image scale; calculating speed from distance and time.

[link to spacemath.gsfc.nasa.gov]

HERES THE ANSWER!! GOTTA MAKE SURE YOU CAN READ IT OUT IN PDA LAND

Problem 7 - If the comet's speed was about 40 km/sec and the CME speed was at least several
hundred times faster, based on your answer to Problem 6, was the comet fragment 'left behind' or
did the CME carry it off?


Answer: The speed in Problem 6 is much closer to the CME speed than the comet speed, so
the fragment was carried off by the CME and not ejected by the comet.


This collision was studied in detail by Dr. Angelos Vourlidas and his colleagues at the Naval
Research laboratory in Washington, D.C and the Rutherford Laboratory in England. They deduced
from a more careful analysis that the CME speed was about 500 km/sec and the solar wind speed
was about 420 km/sec. The tail fragment was carried off by the CME. Details can be found in The
Astrophysical Journal (Letters), vol. 668, pp L79-L82 which was published on October 10, 2007. A movie of
the encounter may be seen at the STEREO web site ( [link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov)] in their movie gallery



I hate no one , I quess Im asking .. ARE YOU SURE?

my reading list ...

[link to www.esa.int]

[link to members.westnet.com.au]

[link to www.greatdreams.com]

[link to www.spacetelescope.org]

[link to www.universetoday.com] yes agian! comments!

[link to www.miz.nao.ac.jp]

[link to www.global-rent-a-scope.com]

[link to www.elenin.info]

[link to sydneystargazers.com]

THE GOOD STUFF!! SCIENCE!!!

73P VELOCITY DISTANCE FRAGMENTS

[link to www.icq.eps.harvard.edu]

[link to www.google.com]

[link to www.scopus.com]

[link to iopscience.iop.org]


At least i gIve you something to read..


No IMAGES!!!??? NO NOT TILL THE 23 WHEN ITS SOHO ..

Last Edited by rphunter on 09/16/2011 01:46 AM
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Mulletman

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Re: C2010 /X1 IMPACT PROBABLITIES! SIMULATIONS, LINKS UNTIL SOHO ON THE 23!............ UPDATE 9/16/2011 Stereo B HI -1 shows FRAGMENT GROUP
5* and should be pinned!
BringTheDoom.com - Wake up and smell the Doom!
indigowiz

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Re: C2010 /X1 IMPACT PROBABLITIES! SIMULATIONS, LINKS UNTIL SOHO ON THE 23!............ UPDATE 9/16/2011 Stereo B HI -1 shows FRAGMENT GROUP
Looks good I'll have to read it later I've actually got to get off this fucking computer and do some work...

Buts there's so much doom around I can almost smell it..
Iam Alpha and Omega
Anonymous Coward
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Re: C2010 /X1 IMPACT PROBABLITIES! SIMULATIONS, LINKS UNTIL SOHO ON THE 23!............ UPDATE 9/16/2011 Stereo B HI -1 shows FRAGMENT GROUP
Looks good I'll have to read it later I've actually got to get off this fucking computer and do some work...

Buts there's so much doom around I can almost smell it..
 Quoting: indigowiz


I am short of doom. Can I have some of yours??
rphunter (OP)

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Re: C2010 /X1 IMPACT PROBABLITIES! SIMULATIONS, LINKS UNTIL SOHO ON THE 23!............ UPDATE 9/16/2011 Stereo B HI -1 shows FRAGMENT GROUP
I KNOW ITS ALLOT OF INFO BUT SERIOUSLY .. I ALWAYS SAID THE MOST DANGEROUS THING ABOUT ME IS THAT I CAN READ AND WRITE !! LOL

RESEARCH WITH KEY WORDS , AND THAT GIVES US THE PARAMETERS OF THE FACTS...

WE BRING IT HERE TO SHARE THE FACTS AND REACH A CONSENSUS

WHERE ARE THE FRAGMENTS OF C2010 /X1 WE CAN SPECULATE UNTIL RADAR ASTRONOMY OR SOHO yield MORE DATA


Ron Paul Hunter

Last Edited by rphunter on 09/13/2011 11:06 PM
Civilization Continuity - PROJECT REVELATION EVENT SEQUENCE: PROJECT GREAT DIVIDE PARTY
IMPACT!Gul fo fAlaska!
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My You Tube Page
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Re: C2010 /X1 IMPACT PROBABLITIES! SIMULATIONS, LINKS UNTIL SOHO ON THE 23!............ UPDATE 9/16/2011 Stereo B HI -1 shows FRAGMENT GROUP
Thanks OP, this is exactly what I have been watching for. Some dude named Astrobob says it completely evaporated, but I posted images from the 11th that shows it still moving forward, though broken up. We won't have to wait long lol, to see who's who and who knows what they are talking about. I'm planning on breaking out the camera and doing so sky watching around then lol.
rphunter (OP)

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Re: C2010 /X1 IMPACT PROBABLITIES! SIMULATIONS, LINKS UNTIL SOHO ON THE 23!............ UPDATE 9/16/2011 Stereo B HI -1 shows FRAGMENT GROUP
THAT SOUNDS GREAT
I cant say enough how important images are when anyone can get them .. and research is often all I can add , im not sure if fragmentation as per Sidney Star Gazers or dissipation better describes the observations , but the CME interaction still looms as an unknown
Civilization Continuity - PROJECT REVELATION EVENT SEQUENCE: PROJECT GREAT DIVIDE PARTY
IMPACT!Gul fo fAlaska!
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My You Tube Page
[link to www.youtube.com]
Anonymous Coward
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Re: C2010 /X1 IMPACT PROBABLITIES! SIMULATIONS, LINKS UNTIL SOHO ON THE 23!............ UPDATE 9/16/2011 Stereo B HI -1 shows FRAGMENT GROUP
I was telling people three-four months ago, it make break up, but everyone was focused on the doom aspect. After awhile, you just sit back and watch lol. I have a suspicion, we may see some nice entries.
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Re: C2010 /X1 IMPACT PROBABLITIES! SIMULATIONS, LINKS UNTIL SOHO ON THE 23!............ UPDATE 9/16/2011 Stereo B HI -1 shows FRAGMENT GROUP
stirovercapstupthrdcupofjoe
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Re: C2010 /X1 IMPACT PROBABLITIES! SIMULATIONS, LINKS UNTIL SOHO ON THE 23!............ UPDATE 9/16/2011 Stereo B HI -1 shows FRAGMENT GROUP
Canadians don't have enough going on up there? Lol, move along, I think I hear you're mom calling, bedtime for you. Time for the adults.
rphunter (OP)

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Re: C2010 /X1 IMPACT PROBABLITIES! SIMULATIONS, LINKS UNTIL SOHO ON THE 23!............ UPDATE 9/16/2011 Stereo B HI -1 shows FRAGMENT GROUP
LOL thanks ... Canada ... oh well ..... you will reap what you sow
Civilization Continuity - PROJECT REVELATION EVENT SEQUENCE: PROJECT GREAT DIVIDE PARTY
IMPACT!Gul fo fAlaska!
[link to web.archive.org]


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[link to www.youtube.com]
TBar1984

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Re: C2010 /X1 IMPACT PROBABLITIES! SIMULATIONS, LINKS UNTIL SOHO ON THE 23!............ UPDATE 9/16/2011 Stereo B HI -1 shows FRAGMENT GROUP
ok great researchers .. why havent you found this yet...

[link to www.bautforum.com]

Read it Carefully then project it onto what you have seen.. ok .. I am not really trying to conving anybody anymore..

FROM THE SITE!!!!!!!!!!!!------------------------------
tony873004
Established Member
Join Date:
Mar 2005
Location:
San Francisco
Posts:
1,160

This is an interesting question, so I thought I'd set it up in Gravity Simulator to see if there's any chance of a meteor shower or storm from debris shed by Elenin at perihelion. Elenin crosses Earth's orbit on October 19, and Earth crosses Elenin's orbit 12 days later on October 31. Earth passes 4.6 million km below Elenin's orbital path. So any debris shed by Elenin at perihelion will have to have enough velocity to fall 12 days behind Elenin and travel 4.6 million km vertically. The vertical part is easy. It's got about 50 days from perihelion to the point Earth crosses its path. So it needs a velocity of about 1 km/s.

So I created 100 particles exploding from Elenin in random directions, moving away at 1 km/s. But this wasn't enough velocity to create the 12 day lag. So I pumped up the velocity. It took a velocity of 11 km/s for any particles shed from Elenin to come close to Earth. I don't know anything about the dynamics of the surfaces of comets that get superheated, but I would guess that this too high to be realistic.

The first image shows a cloud of particles fleeing Elenin as it gets superheated from the Sun at perihelion. The particles are escaping in random 3D directions at velocities of 11.5 km/s.

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!-------------------------GOOD NEWS OR PARAMETERS FOR CONCERN??!!------

ALSO .. [I HAD TO LOOK FOR THIS ] BUT ITS PRICLESS IF YOU HAVE KIDS!!! LOL

Problem 10 - The Comet Encke Tail Disruption Event
On April 20, 2007 NASA's STEREO satellite captured a rare impact between a comet and the fast-moving gas in a solar coronal mass ejection. In this problem, students analyze a STEREO satellite image to determine the speed of the tail disruption event.
Grade: 8 - 10 !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Topics:Time calculation; finding image scale; calculating speed from distance and time.

[link to spacemath.gsfc.nasa.gov]

HERES THE ANSWER!! GOTTA MAKE SURE YOU CAN READ IT OUT IN PDA LAND

Problem 7 - If the comet's speed was about 40 km/sec and the CME speed was at least several
hundred times faster, based on your answer to Problem 6, was the comet fragment 'left behind' or
did the CME carry it off?


Answer: The speed in Problem 6 is much closer to the CME speed than the comet speed, so
the fragment was carried off by the CME and not ejected by the comet.


This collision was studied in detail by Dr. Angelos Vourlidas and his colleagues at the Naval
Research laboratory in Washington, D.C and the Rutherford Laboratory in England. They deduced
from a more careful analysis that the CME speed was about 500 km/sec and the solar wind speed
was about 420 km/sec. The tail fragment was carried off by the CME. Details can be found in The
Astrophysical Journal (Letters), vol. 668, pp L79-L82 which was published on October 10, 2007. A movie of
the encounter may be seen at the STEREO web site ( [link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov)] in their movie gallery



I hate no one , I quess Im asking .. ARE YOU SURE?

my reading list ...

[link to www.esa.int]

[link to members.westnet.com.au]

[link to www.greatdreams.com]

[link to www.spacetelescope.org]

[link to www.universetoday.com] yes agian! comments!

[link to www.miz.nao.ac.jp]

[link to www.global-rent-a-scope.com]

[link to www.elenin.info]

[link to sydneystargazers.com]

THE GOOD STUFF!! SCIENCE!!!

73P VELOCITY DISTANCE FRAGMENTS

[link to www.icq.eps.harvard.edu]

[link to www.google.com]

[link to www.scopus.com]

[link to iopscience.iop.org]


At least i gIve you something to read..


No IMAGES!!!??? NO NOT TILL THE 23 WHEN ITS SOHO ..
 Quoting: rphunter


I'll copy & paste my same response to this post you left in my thread;
This is the Beef, "So I created 100 particles exploding from Elenin in random directions, moving away at 1 km/s. But this wasn't enough velocity to create the 12 day lag. So I pumped up the velocity. It took a velocity of 11 km/s for any particles shed from Elenin to come close to Earth."

There are no indications of an 'explosion'. In fact, just to opposite with some contending that it didn't separate. Then there is Tony873004's own post, just below the one you quoted;
[link to www.bautforum.com]
"I was guessing Earth wouldn't get any debris. For anything to get to us, it needs to be ejected from Elenin at 11 km/s. I'm sure there's going to be lots of popping and fizzing when this comet comes closer to the Sun than Mercury, but I doubt any particles will leave Elenin with that high of a velocity."

In this article the 'explosion' is again dispelled;
Comet Elenin – the final prospect
[link to spaceobs.org]
"I note that this is a breakup, not an explosion. All the pieces continue to move on the comet’s trajectory. The large fragments are likely to continue to disintegrate into smaller ones. It is possible that in October when the comet moves into the morning sky, we will no longer be able to see what once was Comet Elenin. It is possible that something will be visible to large earth-based telescopes..."

Another thought would be about when meteor showers 'peak'. The 'newer' ones are said to peak within a couple days where the ones thousands of years old have longer durations. The pieces drift apart eventually, but it takes a very long time. There will not be very much time between Elenin's separation and it's orbit passage, and what's left will not be back for a very long time...if at all.
"The Leonids are a prolific meteor shower associated with the comet Tempel-Tuttle...The meteoroids left by the comet are organized in trails in orbits similar to though different from that of the comet. They are differentially disturbed by the planets, in particular Jupiter[2] and to a lesser extent by radiation pressure from the sun, the Poynting–Robertson effect, and the Yarkovsky effect.[3] Old trails are spatially not dense and compose the meteor shower with a few meteors per minute. In the case of the Leonids, that tends to peak around November 17, but some are spread through several days on either side and the specific peak changing every year.[4]"
[link to en.wikipedia.org]

Last Edited by TBar1984 on 09/13/2011 11:22 PM
rphunter (OP)

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Re: C2010 /X1 IMPACT PROBABLITIES! SIMULATIONS, LINKS UNTIL SOHO ON THE 23!............ UPDATE 9/16/2011 Stereo B HI -1 shows FRAGMENT GROUP
ok nice Job its a break up and not an explosion ... But it was created by a CME and the aforementioned magnetised gas cloud .... 4 days later

Im not reallty arguing with you on the observation of break up but I am exploring how fast a CME can Accelerate the fragments and dust ..

you really dont address that.. what I cite are examples [ often used in science ] of other breakup events including the one Mr Elenin mentiones with his light curve data..1999 LINNEAR [?]

Whats the problem ?

If you can read tHE math lession for the 8 THROUGH 10 TH GRADERS[!] you will see an actual example from astronomy history of a CME accelerating a comet fragment and tail well past teh 11.5 km/sec [?BARRIER] OF POSSIBLE IMPACT THREAT..!!!

You did read that example didnt you?
Civilization Continuity - PROJECT REVELATION EVENT SEQUENCE: PROJECT GREAT DIVIDE PARTY
IMPACT!Gul fo fAlaska!
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TBar1984

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Re: C2010 /X1 IMPACT PROBABLITIES! SIMULATIONS, LINKS UNTIL SOHO ON THE 23!............ UPDATE 9/16/2011 Stereo B HI -1 shows FRAGMENT GROUP
ok nice Job its a break up and not an explosion ... But it was created by a CME and the aforementioned magnetised gas cloud .... 4 days later

Im not reallty arguing with you on the observation of break up but I am exploring how fast a CME can Accelerate the fragments and dust ..

you really dont address that.. what I cite are examples [ often used in science ] of other breakup events including the one Mr Elenin mentiones with his light curve data..1999 LINNEAR [?]

Whats the problem ?

If you can read tHE math lession for the 8 THROUGH 10 TH GRADERS[!] you will see an actual example from astronomy history of a CME accelerating a comet fragment and tail well past teh 11.5 km/sec [?BARRIER] OF POSSIBLE IMPACT THREAT..!!!

You did read that example didnt you?
 Quoting: rphunter

I haven't seen any evidence that the CME caused the breakup. Even if it did, when that particular CME hit Elenin, the wind wasn't blowing anywhere near Earth's projected path. Furthermore, as far as I know, the only tail Elenin was displaying at that time was an Ion tail [link to spaceobs.org] . Last I checked, Ions aren't that dangerous to Earth in the densities displayed in the tail even if it were Earth directed. Whatever.
rphunter (OP)

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Re: C2010 /X1 IMPACT PROBABLITIES! SIMULATIONS, LINKS UNTIL SOHO ON THE 23!............ UPDATE 9/16/2011 Stereo B HI -1 shows FRAGMENT GROUP
OK I watch/LIKE your U Tube TBAR .. SEE RED REGION HIGHLIGHTED BELOW

Here is the main math page so everyone can read allong and do the math with problem 6 to show better what I am talking about.

[AS AN ADULT] COncern , if there is any is in remarks like look at the "twisting tail of eleina in the CME" or something like that .. from Mr Elenin Himslef

I guess I'm Asking what got blown away and where is it now? [!]

the site is going down so i downloaded the page...

original
[link to solar-center.stanford.edu]

[I think they are taking it down]
This is Google's cache of [link to solar-center.stanford.edu] It is a snapshot of the page as it appeared on Sep 8, 2011 11:00:57 GMT. The current page could have changed in the meantime. Learn more

Text-only version
These search terms are highlighted: science nasa comet cme linear calculation tail

[link to webcache.googleusercontent.com]

[THERE IS AN IMAGE WITH THIS QUESTION SET ]

TITLE: The Comet Encke Tail Disruption Event

Problem 1 - What is the scale of the images in arcminutes per millimeter? (1 degree=60 arcminutes)

Problem 2 - How many seconds elapsed between the time the two images were taken by the
STEREO-A satellite?

Problem 3 - The left image shows the comet with an intact tail. The right image shows the tail
separated from the head of the comet (the right-most bright feature along the comet’s horizontal axis
which we will call Point A), and flowing to the left. Meanwhile, you can see that the comet has
already begun to reform a new tail. Carefully examine the right-hand image and identify the right-
most end of the ejected tail (Call it Point B). Note that star images do not move, and are more nearly
point-like than the tail gases. How far, in millimeters, is Point B from Point A?

Problem 4 - From the image scale, convert your answer to Problem 3 into arcminutes.

Problem 5 - The distance of the comet was 114 million kilometers, and at that distance, one
arcminute of angular separation corresponds to 33,000 kilometers. How far did the tail fragment
travel between the times of the two images?

Problem 6 - What was the speed of the tail fragment?

Problem 7 - If the comet's speed was about 40 km/sec and the CME speed was at least several
hundred times faster, based on your answer to Problem 6, was the comet fragment 'left behind' or
did the CME carry it off?




[link to spacemath.gsfc.nasa.gov] TRY THIS



Answer Key:

Problem 1 - What is the scale of the images in arcminutes per millimeter? (1 degree=60
arcminutes)

Answer: horizontally, the image span 6.4 degrees x 60 minutes/degree = 384 arcminutes. The
length is 77 millimeters, so the scale is 384/77 = 5.0 arcminutes/mm

Problem 2 - How many seconds elapsed between the time the two images were taken by the
STEREO-A satellite?

Answer: 20:50 - 18:10 = 2 hours and 40 minutes = 160 minutes or 9600 seconds.

Problem 3 - The left image shows the comet with an intact tail. The right image shows the tail
separated from the head of the comet (the right-most bright feature along the comets horizontal axis
which we will call Point A), and flowing to the left. Meanwhile, you can see that the comet has
already begun to reform a new tail. Carefully examine the right-hand image and identify the right-
most end of the ejected tail (Call it Point B). Note that star images do not move, and are more nearly
point-like than the tail gases. How far, in millimeters, is Point B from Point A?

Answer: An answer near 17 millimeters is acceptable, but students may measure from 15 to 20
millimeters as reasonable answers.

Problem 4 - From the image scale, convert your answer to Problem 3 into arcminutes.

Answer: 17 millimeters x 5 arcminutes/mm = 85 arcminutes.

Problem 5 - The distance of the comet was 114 million kilometers, and at that distance, one
arcminute of angular separation corresponds to 33,000 kilometers. How far did the tail fragment
travel between the times of the two images?

Answer: 85 arcminutes x 33,000 kilometers/arcminute = 2.8 million kilometers.

Problem 6 - What was the speed of the tail fragment?


Answer: 2.8 million kilometers/9600 seconds = 292 kilometers/second.

Problem 7 - If the comet's speed was about 40 km/sec and the CME speed was at least several
hundred times faster, based on your answer to Problem 6, was the comet fragment 'left behind' or
did the CME carry it off?
Answer: The speed in Problem 6 is much closer to the CME speed than the comet speed, so
the fragment was carried off by the CME and not ejected by the comet.

This collision was studied in detail by Dr. Angelos Vourlidas and his colleagues at the Naval
Research laboratory in Washington, D.C and the Rutherford Laboratory in England. They deduced
from a more careful analysis that the CME speed was about 500 km/sec and the solar wind speed
was about 420 km/sec. The tail fragment was carried off by the CME. Details can be found in The
Astrophysical Journal (Letters), vol. 668, pp L79-L82 which was published on October 10, 2007. A movie of
the encounter may be seen at the STEREO web site ( [link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov)] in their movie gallery.
Space Math [link to spacemath.gsfc.nasa.gov]

Last Edited by rphunter on 09/14/2011 12:46 AM
Civilization Continuity - PROJECT REVELATION EVENT SEQUENCE: PROJECT GREAT DIVIDE PARTY
IMPACT!Gul fo fAlaska!
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rphunter (OP)

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Re: C2010 /X1 IMPACT PROBABLITIES! SIMULATIONS, LINKS UNTIL SOHO ON THE 23!............ UPDATE 9/16/2011 Stereo B HI -1 shows FRAGMENT GROUP
bump
Civilization Continuity - PROJECT REVELATION EVENT SEQUENCE: PROJECT GREAT DIVIDE PARTY
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TBar1984

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Re: C2010 /X1 IMPACT PROBABLITIES! SIMULATIONS, LINKS UNTIL SOHO ON THE 23!............ UPDATE 9/16/2011 Stereo B HI -1 shows FRAGMENT GROUP
All that math doesn't matter when you consider that the Earth and Elenin where about 90 degrees apart in respect to the Sun when the CME hit. If anything was blown off by the CME, it was directed behind the Earth at about a 90 degree angle. Also, the direction the Solar wind was blowing when the CME hit Elenin was almost 180 degrees off the direction needed to blow anything in direction of where the Earth & Elenin will be at Closest approach.

I really don't see your point. Anything possibly blown off by the CME is headed away from Earth.

1dunno1
rphunter (OP)

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Re: C2010 /X1 IMPACT PROBABLITIES! SIMULATIONS, LINKS UNTIL SOHO ON THE 23!............ UPDATE 9/16/2011 Stereo B HI -1 shows FRAGMENT GROUP
All that math doesn't matter [seriously?]


when you consider that the Earth and Elenin where about 90 degrees apart in respect to the Sun when the CME hit. If anything was blown off by the CME, it was directed behind the Earth at about a 90 degree angle. Also, the direction the Solar wind was blowing when the CME hit Elenin was almost 180 degrees off the direction needed to blow anything in direction of where the Earth & Elenin will be at Closest approach.

I really don't see your point. Anything possibly blown off by the CME is headed away from Earth.

1dunno1
 Quoting: TBar1984


MAN! which is bad because as you point out it is traveling in a cohesive mass! its a vector of its absloute acceleration realtive to the solar primary [the sun] was 4 days from maximum V!.
ANy fragments from this event could have possibly been accelerated to escape velocity from the aug 20 breakup event and thus be on entirely seperate orbits ...

The CME velocity was higher than the 11.5 KM/sec.. those are some tier of facts .

Now to be civil what do we make of them?

Last Edited by rphunter on 09/16/2011 02:29 AM
Civilization Continuity - PROJECT REVELATION EVENT SEQUENCE: PROJECT GREAT DIVIDE PARTY
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rphunter (OP)

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Re: C2010 /X1 IMPACT PROBABLITIES! SIMULATIONS, LINKS UNTIL SOHO ON THE 23!............ UPDATE 9/16/2011 Stereo B HI -1 shows FRAGMENT GROUP
AS am I ...LOL

ok T bar lets hit it in the AM or tommorow afternoon and argue some more .. LAter ...rphunter
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TBar1984

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09/14/2011 01:13 AM
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Re: C2010 /X1 IMPACT PROBABLITIES! SIMULATIONS, LINKS UNTIL SOHO ON THE 23!............ UPDATE 9/16/2011 Stereo B HI -1 shows FRAGMENT GROUP
All that math doesn't matter [seriously?]


when you consider that the Earth and Elenin where about 90 degrees apart in respect to the Sun when the CME hit. If anything was blown off by the CME, it was directed behind the Earth at about a 90 degree angle. Also, the direction the Solar wind was blowing when the CME hit Elenin was almost 180 degrees off the direction needed to blow anything in direction of where the Earth & Elenin will be at Closest approach.

I really don't see your point. Anything possibly blown off by the CME is headed away from Earth.

1dunno1
 Quoting: TBar1984


MAN! which is bad because as you point out it is traveling in a cohesive mass! its a vector of its sbsloute acceleration realtive to teh soalr primary [the sun] was 4 daysd from maximum.

The CME velocity was higher than the 11.5 KM/sec.. those are some tier of facts .

Now to be civil what do we make of them?
 Quoting: rphunter

Why are you so concerned about a few particles that may or may not have been blown away from a 2-4km diameter comet? Whatever may have been blown off would be very small. I think you may have Elenintitis. Why worry about a few 'possible' small particles when there are so many more identified objects much closer than Elenin will ever be? Take a look at just how crowded the space around Earth actually is and try to put into perspective the implications of what a few 'possible' Elenin particles might be.

Morpheus

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09/14/2011 01:18 AM

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Re: C2010 /X1 IMPACT PROBABLITIES! SIMULATIONS, LINKS UNTIL SOHO ON THE 23!............ UPDATE 9/16/2011 Stereo B HI -1 shows FRAGMENT GROUP
Canadians don't have enough going on up there? Lol, move along, I think I hear you're mom calling, bedtime for you. Time for the adults.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 1318005


Some of us aren't that dumb. I'm Canadian but on a US network right now.

Great post OP!

I've got an 11" scope and can't wait to see elenin first hand in a few weeks. Will post pics on GLP.

Last Edited by Morpheus on 09/14/2011 01:19 AM
rphunter (OP)

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09/14/2011 01:29 AM
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Re: C2010 /X1 IMPACT PROBABLITIES! SIMULATIONS, LINKS UNTIL SOHO ON THE 23!............ UPDATE 9/16/2011 Stereo B HI -1 shows FRAGMENT GROUP
No man PROBABLITY AND CHANCE..REMEMBER THOSE WORDS..

WHY AM I SO CONCERNED .. BECAUSE ..
WE DONT KNOW IF ITS A FEW GRAINS OR A WHOLE NUCELUS FRAGMENT OR WHATS ITS MADE OF .. or for that matter exactly what happened ..

POSSIBLE = YES , Chance = yes
probablity [historically] = low

BUT NOT IMPOSSIBLE THUS WE NEED TO COVER IT

its no joke .. and im not being dramatic.. if a 2.4 to 4 km diameter bunch of nucelar weapons was to suddenly blow off course .. id want to know where they were.. period.

Fragments are at least that dangerious .. I really wan tto do some more reading on this .. the 73p stuff will bend your mind.. they still dont know where all the fragments are to this day.


All that math doesn't matter [seriously?]


when you consider that the Earth and Elenin where about 90 degrees apart in respect to the Sun when the CME hit. If anything was blown off by the CME, it was directed behind the Earth at about a 90 degree angle. Also, the direction the Solar wind was blowing when the CME hit Elenin was almost 180 degrees off the direction needed to blow anything in direction of where the Earth & Elenin will be at Closest approach.

I really don't see your point. Anything possibly blown off by the CME is headed away from Earth.

1dunno1
 Quoting: TBar1984


MAN! which is bad because as you point out it is traveling in a cohesive mass! its a vector of its sbsloute acceleration realtive to teh soalr primary [the sun] was 4 daysd from maximum.

The CME velocity was higher than the 11.5 KM/sec.. those are some tier of facts .

Now to be civil what do we make of them?
 Quoting: rphunter

Why are you so concerned about a few particles that may or may not have been blown away from a 2-4km diameter comet? Whatever may have been blown off would be very small. I think you may have Elenintitis. Why worry about a few 'possible' small particles when there are so many more identified objects much closer than Elenin will ever be? Take a look at just how crowded the space around Earth actually is and try to put into perspective the implications of what a few 'possible' Elenin particles might be.

\\

OH Great U Tube by the way.. it is confusing when they rotate the freaking space platforms..RPH
 Quoting: TBar1984


Last Edited by rphunter on 09/14/2011 01:30 AM
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rphunter (OP)

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09/14/2011 02:04 AM
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Re: C2010 /X1 IMPACT PROBABLITIES! SIMULATIONS, LINKS UNTIL SOHO ON THE 23!............ UPDATE 9/16/2011 Stereo B HI -1 shows FRAGMENT GROUP
Canadians don't have enough going on up there? Lol, move along, I think I hear you're mom calling, bedtime for you. Time for the adults.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 1318005


Some of us aren't that dumb. I'm Canadian but on a US network right now.

Great post OP!

I've got an 11" scope and can't wait to see elenin first hand in a few weeks. Will post pics on GLP.
 Quoting: Morpheus


Right ON .. I have e mailed SETI and the GBT scientist .. if I hear anything I will post it..

Last Edited by rphunter on 09/16/2011 02:31 AM
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rphunter (OP)

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09/14/2011 02:36 AM
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Re: C2010 /X1 IMPACT PROBABLITIES! SIMULATIONS, LINKS UNTIL SOHO ON THE 23!............ UPDATE 9/16/2011 Stereo B HI -1 shows FRAGMENT GROUP
malicious bump to the "offical thread"bump
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rphunter (OP)

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09/16/2011 01:41 AM
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Re: C2010 /X1 IMPACT PROBABLITIES! SIMULATIONS, LINKS UNTIL SOHO ON THE 23!............ UPDATE 9/16/2011 Stereo B HI -1 shows FRAGMENT GROUP
c2010 /x1 fragment pattern on the Processed High Res Stereo B HI -1 ?!!




CME 14-15 AUG
Break UP 20 AUG
fragment decleeration is in question awating sept 23 SOHO Imagery
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TBar1984

User ID: 1537588
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09/16/2011 01:52 AM
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Re: C2010 /X1 IMPACT PROBABLITIES! SIMULATIONS, LINKS UNTIL SOHO ON THE 23!............ UPDATE 9/16/2011 Stereo B HI -1 shows FRAGMENT GROUP
c2010 /x1 fragment pattern on the Processed High Res Stereo B HI -1 ?!!




CME 14-15 AUG
Break UP 20 AUG
fragment decleeration is in question awating sept 23 SOHO Imagery
 Quoting: rphunter


Time mark 7:24 on this video shows you that your 'fragment' is the Pleiades. Elenin left the Stereo B HI1 FOV on Sept 4th. I had posted on that 'tubers comment section telling him that it was the Pleiades the day before. I again posted underneath the above video and he removed the post. So, I included it in a video;

Pangn

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09/16/2011 01:56 AM

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Re: C2010 /X1 IMPACT PROBABLITIES! SIMULATIONS, LINKS UNTIL SOHO ON THE 23!............ UPDATE 9/16/2011 Stereo B HI -1 shows FRAGMENT GROUP
bump
rphunter (OP)

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09/16/2011 02:23 AM
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Re: C2010 /X1 IMPACT PROBABLITIES! SIMULATIONS, LINKS UNTIL SOHO ON THE 23!............ UPDATE 9/16/2011 Stereo B HI -1 shows FRAGMENT GROUP
SWEET OK THATS THE FIRST I HEARD OF IT ..

DID YOUR INSIDE GUY GIVE YOU A ORBITAL PROJECTION FOR C2010 /X1 FRAGMENTS?

WHAT IS THEIR SEPERATION VELOCITY AND ORBITAL RETARDATIO9N?
Civilization Continuity - PROJECT REVELATION EVENT SEQUENCE: PROJECT GREAT DIVIDE PARTY
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rphunter (OP)

User ID: 1283936
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09/16/2011 02:26 AM
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Re: C2010 /X1 IMPACT PROBABLITIES! SIMULATIONS, LINKS UNTIL SOHO ON THE 23!............ UPDATE 9/16/2011 Stereo B HI -1 shows FRAGMENT GROUP
OH PS YUOR TUBE SI TO LONG AND THERE IS NOT MUCH COHESIVE AT 7:23 TO PROVE YOUR POINT.

READ THE FIRST POSTS IN THIS THREAD FOR SOME SIMPLE MATH THAT SHOWS THAT ABSLOUTLY NO ONE CAN COMPLETELY RULE OUT IMPACT FROM FRAGMENTS DUE TO CME INTERACTION

Last Edited by rphunter on 09/16/2011 02:32 AM
Civilization Continuity - PROJECT REVELATION EVENT SEQUENCE: PROJECT GREAT DIVIDE PARTY
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TBar1984

User ID: 1537588
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09/16/2011 02:38 AM
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Re: C2010 /X1 IMPACT PROBABLITIES! SIMULATIONS, LINKS UNTIL SOHO ON THE 23!............ UPDATE 9/16/2011 Stereo B HI -1 shows FRAGMENT GROUP
SWEET OK THATS THE FIRST I HEARD OF IT ..

DID YOUR INSIDE GUY GIVE YOU A ORBITAL PROJECTION FOR C2010 /X1 FRAGMENTS?

WHAT IS THEIR SEPERATION VELOCITY AND ORBITAL RETARDATIO9N?
 Quoting: rphunter


Keep reading this until it sinks in;

"The doomsdayers are just saying that more bad things will happen!” laughed Musgrave. “But you have to remember that when a comet breaks up, the fragments stay in the same orbit. If it evaporates, you’ll have a mass of rubble and gas on the same orbit. People don’t seem to get that space is big, really big, and when a comet breaks up it follows Newtons Laws and the fragments will slowly draw apart, but over the timescale that we see them, the difference will be so miniscule.”
[link to www.universetoday.com]

You can also look at the pictures of comet breakups as well. Please note how the fragments follow the same trajectory even after separation [link to en.wikipedia.org]

The only inside guy I have is that mass of gray matter between my ears...
Zack18257

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09/16/2011 02:40 AM
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Re: C2010 /X1 IMPACT PROBABLITIES! SIMULATIONS, LINKS UNTIL SOHO ON THE 23!............ UPDATE 9/16/2011 Stereo B HI -1 shows FRAGMENT GROUP
DOOM ON mother fuckers!

i can only hope that it finally comes

im tired of waiting

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