CME Looks ready to burst within the next 36 hours.

11295,96,98 are showing a steady increase in activity 95 and 98 are in relatively close proximity and have potential for magnetic interactions.

It has the potential of getting quite interesting from now to 3 days out (pends if activity continues to climb).

Thanks for the update.

11279 will be popping up around the Eastern limb soon, and is growing rapidly, though the magnetic state is still in alpha which is a mild condition.

The other 3 are all in Beta state, if the develop further we should see at least one perhaps go into Beta-Gamma-Delta and at least a Beta-Gamma configuration.

Ah, its nice to see activity start returning to a period of change and excitement.

As I said months ago, and only from my own observations, is that after a great lull of a minimum there is often a more intensified maximum on the next cycle (which is now).

for keeping us updated.

and thanks for the comment back re update.

I will drop in tomorrow and post here if any previlant changes occur.

Oh, I went far too high on the X flare prediction, jumped the gun on that and thus downgrade probability to (10%, +/-5).

CME remains the same (if not higher)

11295 has an increased growth rate and magnetic configuration has now moved from beta to beta-gamma configuration. The overall size will probably go into the large scale.

11298 (twined with 11295) has slowed its growth and seems to of slightly decayed, magnetic configuration remains in a beta state but I assume this will slide back to Alpha soon.

11296 has decayed growth and overall size has decreased and also appears to be subsiding (though has potential to swell again).

From current observations I would have to forecast an increased probability of an X flare event emanating from 11296, roughly (>20%) which may increase over the next 24 hours, keeping a close eyes on magnetic configuration. Given the consistent increase over the last 48 hours it is also likely this will turn Beta-Gamma-Delta.

Of interest to me is if 11295 turns Beta-Gamma-Delta and doubles in size, what will the prevailing interactive results be on 11298?

Ah,, last paragraph was meant to point to 11295 (re flare activity)

A CME will likely be observed in or about 16 hours from now, give or take a little.

Hmmm, interesting period over the next week I would say.

11299 is growing rapidly and may also change magnetic state to Beta-Gamma

11301 just emerged from the Eastern limb and has already produced a C-flare.

11279 is worth putting on the watch list as it emerges from the Eastern limb in the coming days. Growth is still rapidly climbing.

In 3 days the front side facing will be quite busy resulting in a higher than usual amount of activity.

Stay tuned!!!

we are not all whales or black dolphins ok.

My half vulcan mind cant quite grasp the underlying emotion nor meaning of your statement.

Black dolphins are small, Whales are large both live in the ocean and have a gifted ability to communicate and navigate the globe.

So by deduction of logic this has nothing to do with size and since us humans have equal or better abilities of communication this only leaves navigation. We are superb and navigation (above the sea) so long as we rely on our technology.

Thus the dolphin and whale have a gifted sense and highly advanced method of undersea navigational using internal and natural sensors (not tech).

Now how do I deduce the context of this in relation to the suns activities?

hmmmmm.

Hydra protection?

Ah, there we have it, an earth directed CME had just now emanated from 11296. No data is available yet but will soon follow.

===================

Catania sunspot group 74 (NOAA AR 1296) has produced a C6.2 flare
peaking at 07:37 UT today. The flare region is currently close to the
central meridian. At the moment of writing, no SOHO/LASCO data is
available but from STEREO-A/COR2 data, we can confirm the eruption of an
Earth-directed CME with a speed around 400 km/s. Further analysis will
follow as more data becomes available.

oops, I cut off the top bit of the above message;


:Issued: 2011 Sep 19 0948 UTC
:Product: documentation at [link to www.sidc.be]
#------------------------------------------------------------​--------#
# FAST WARNING 'PRESTO' MESSAGE from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #

11295 is still growing and is looking quite probable at least an M-class flare will prevail in the coming day/s. Probability of an X flare is still quite low and will remain so unless some distinct changes occur.

there are now 26 sunspots in 11295. Looking at data at the moment I'm not seeing any signs of another CME, (not yet anyway).

I'll drop by tomorrow and give another update.

Stay tuned, some interesting activities may be prominent in the next 3-4 days.

Nice work

Ok, as suspected this will be a high active period.

Just now data indicates a very high probability of a rather strong CME (>80%), the best timing I can guess right now is again >12 hours and <36 hours.

Watch out for this one, it may be a spectacular display.

Also of note, is a sharp increase in cosmic ray ground station readings, a spike from 10,000 to 10,400 happen in an instance of time.

the south pole Neutron monitor topped 11,000 just now.

11301 is still growing and has now moved into a Beta_Gamma configuration. Expect more eruptions to follow and perhaps increase in strength.

11295 seams to be stabilizing, the size remains roughly the same but the number of sunspots has decreased marginally.

Certainly going to see a prominent CME, perhaps quite powerful.

Oops, 11301 may still be in Beta state, not sure actually, readings are going a bit haywire at the moment.

I cannot see ANY CME on Stereo a or B today that is earth directed. there are using the imagination perhaps a tiny one NOT earth directed on b.

If you understand cosmic ray readings derived from ground based stations and neutron monitors you may notice there are preliminary indicators (early warning) of such happenings.

So when you say "I can't see", where and what is it your looking at/for?

Oh I it is an almost certainty (>90%) we will see a or few pretty powerful CME's erupt shortly, and by that I mean within around 24 hours.

Mark my words, as I said in the first post, a gateway event. The beginning of the next stage of solar max starts with a song and dance in a glorious fireworks show shortly.

Stay tuned for an epic era :)

Ah ha, cosmic ray count has remained flat from the peek of the spike a few hours ago.

It's at about this stage is where I would initiate preemptive contingency preparations for satellite hibernation. Test runs of protocols and procedures for likeley candidates that may need to go hiber.

During hibernation the sats are still active, though diminished in capacity an electrical throughput. Saves frying the chips.

Now that's a good op that keeps you updated ;-)

hey OP you seem really smart on the sun you should go to Nins solar thread they could use some people over there that are good with sun info

Ah, thanks for a little sunshine but really I'm average when compared to helospheric experts out there.

Keeping this thread alive for the next 7-12 (maybe more, pending on extant) days as a baseline of as much basic fact reporting as I have the time to do.

Hope you enjoy an uncolored fact thread with no unadulterated conspiracy, albeit a little here and there :)

The intensity and time scale of cosmic ray and neutron emissions has been quite extensive (for this early period of maximum) and still continues at the same rate (if not more) since the earlier post.

Mim (OP)
User ID: 1555176
China
09/19/2011 11:11 PM

Oh and there is a gateway timing coincidence in that post, 11:11 - hmmm, a gateway event and I pressed enter on a gateway number, interesting (there is a little conspiracy or bizarreness for you).

To add a little more color to an otherwise black and white thread, I'd go as far to report the sun is going to let off a reverberating fart more akin to the earlier prehistoric giants that once roamed our planet. Thank goodness I wont be standing next to it when it lets loose ;)

I suspect soon after the stroke of midnight on the 21st UTC time the CME/s could begin.

My own certaintly level of CME/s remains >90% timing is difficult but give or take 8-12 hours should be close enough.

Get ready for the fireworks. I think w will see some pleasant pictures of this one.

Don't forget when there is an event like or similar to whats about to occur, there are artifacts in the photos taken by most of the helospheric cameras. This is caused by electron disruption.

Chiming in to give the latest update.

What can I say, neutron activity is still at an elevated constant. Personally I have not been following the sun much in the last 5 years as it was busy having a deep sleep, almost a coma.

From my own recent observations, I have not seen this occur since our last solar maximum, its quite exciting. I'm not expecting a major X flare event, though M flares may. But more to the point in this thread is a prominent CME will ensue as the clock ticks forward.

For now I will base the hunch on the same as last. within 24 hours and probably less but almost certainly > 6 hours out.