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# List of false prophets and failed predictions.

TheTruthWorker

User ID: 1307920
United States
04/14/2012 08:38 AM
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Re: List of false prophets and failed predictions.
Quoting: TheTruthWorker

Let me clarify something.
There were 6 earthquakes above 7.0 in 2012. If we count significant ones that made it to mainstream due to the caused damage we can add extra 6. So in total 12 significant EQ within 100 days that can be counted as "confirmed" by your predictions. You also allow plus minus 1 day. So what is the probability that such an event happens in any three given days. You will be surprised but it is 32%. So does your predictions count if their probability to happen is 32%? I don't think so. Giving plenty of predictions you will eventually hit such an event and it will happen sooner than later. Sorry, man. This is just the statistics. So I am going to remove all predictions of such events unless it is MEGA quake that causes devastation.

If I am wrong convince me otherwise.
Quoting: Sergman

You are spot on mate. It didn't happen on the day predicted but the day before, some people may be amazed when they move the goal posts but it doesn't amaze me, it didn't happen on the day and therefore shouldn't be classed as a hit.

Simple.
Quoting: Anonymous Coward 13839937

Goal post never moved. Within a day was part of the forecast in alignment with the historic patterns used.
TheTruthWorker

User ID: 1307920
United States
04/14/2012 08:55 AM
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Re: List of false prophets and failed predictions.
Quoting: TheTruthWorker

Let me clarify something.
There were 6 earthquakes above 7.0 in 2012. If we count significant ones that made it to mainstream due to the caused damage we can add extra 6. So in total 12 significant EQ within 100 days that can be counted as "confirmed" by your predictions. You also allow plus minus 1 day. So what is the probability that such an event happens in any three given days. You will be surprised but it is 32%. So does your predictions count if their probability to happen is 32%? I don't think so. Giving plenty of predictions you will eventually hit such an event and it will happen sooner than later. Sorry, man. This is just the statistics. So I am going to remove all predictions of such events unless it is MEGA quake that causes devastation.

If I am wrong convince me otherwise.
Quoting: Sergman

Thread: GLP effect is in DANGER!

Anonymous Coward
User ID: 14249851
United States
04/14/2012 07:10 PM
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Re: List of false prophets and failed predictions.

2012
Sergman (OP)

User ID: 11883711
04/14/2012 09:01 PM
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Re: List of false prophets and failed predictions.
Quoting: TheTruthWorker

Let me clarify something.
There were 6 earthquakes above 7.0 in 2012. If we count significant ones that made it to mainstream due to the caused damage we can add extra 6. So in total 12 significant EQ within 100 days that can be counted as "confirmed" by your predictions. You also allow plus minus 1 day. So what is the probability that such an event happens in any three given days. You will be surprised but it is 32%. So does your predictions count if their probability to happen is 32%? I don't think so. Giving plenty of predictions you will eventually hit such an event and it will happen sooner than later. Sorry, man. This is just the statistics. So I am going to remove all predictions of such events unless it is MEGA quake that causes devastation.

If I am wrong convince me otherwise.
Quoting: Sergman

Sergman, to me this is an obvious hit. You are saying it is not. We have two opposing OPINIONS.

I thank you for the opportunity to state my case. I will post my reply in several parts starting first with the feedback of the other GLP users. Their majority OPINION seems obvious that this is a rare confirmed hit.

Users following my threads on this prediction seem like what I have been sharing with a surprising few calling is BS.

But this is your thread, and you are the judge of what you do on it. As you know I have been supporting it. Please consider the following replies (parts) from me below in your final decision and do what you think is right.
Quoting: TheTruthWorker

I am trying to be purely objective. That is why I calculated the probability that your predictions happen. Regarding the responses... Many people think that David Copperfield has god power that makes him fly. Does it mean it is true? If you show me that I am wrong in my calculation then I will admit my mistake.
:bdance:
TheTruthWorker

User ID: 14354297
United States
04/14/2012 10:24 PM
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Re: List of false prophets and failed predictions.
Quoting: TheTruthWorker

Let me clarify something.
There were 6 earthquakes above 7.0 in 2012. If we count significant ones that made it to mainstream due to the caused damage we can add extra 6. So in total 12 significant EQ within 100 days that can be counted as "confirmed" by your predictions. You also allow plus minus 1 day. So what is the probability that such an event happens in any three given days. You will be surprised but it is 32%. So does your predictions count if their probability to happen is 32%? I don't think so. Giving plenty of predictions you will eventually hit such an event and it will happen sooner than later. Sorry, man. This is just the statistics. So I am going to remove all predictions of such events unless it is MEGA quake that causes devastation.

If I am wrong convince me otherwise.
Quoting: Sergman

Sergman, to me this is an obvious hit. You are saying it is not. We have two opposing OPINIONS.

I thank you for the opportunity to state my case. I will post my reply in several parts starting first with the feedback of the other GLP users. Their majority OPINION seems obvious that this is a rare confirmed hit.

Users following my threads on this prediction seem like what I have been sharing with a surprising few calling is BS.

But this is your thread, and you are the judge of what you do on it. As you know I have been supporting it. Please consider the following replies (parts) from me below in your final decision and do what you think is right.
Quoting: TheTruthWorker

I am trying to be purely objective. That is why I calculated the probability that your predictions happen. Regarding the responses... Many people think that David Copperfield has god power that makes him fly. Does it mean it is true? If you show me that I am wrong in my calculation then I will admit my mistake.
Quoting: Sergman

1) The original purpose of your thread is to expose failed predictions. Objectivity might be swayed unintentionally.

2) You are calculating probabilities to invalidate my prediction. You should have done that before you added to the watch list, right? You don't post all predictions submitted here. Decide in advance if it is worthy. Deleting it after the fact would suck.

3) I can't fault your calculations as stated. But I could, but won't, point out other elements of probability not being taking into account. I am not trying to make dumb calls. If you don't like the odds -- don't judge it in the first place. I hope to layout future predictions that hit which you can't argue about.

4) I am no magician, prophet or con man. I am not hoping people are stupid, gullible or ignorant. Just looking to have a good time sharing some theories I'v been playing with on my own until now. And I like popcorn.

Sergman (OP)

User ID: 11883711
04/15/2012 03:20 AM
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Re: List of false prophets and failed predictions.
...

Let me clarify something.
There were 6 earthquakes above 7.0 in 2012. If we count significant ones that made it to mainstream due to the caused damage we can add extra 6. So in total 12 significant EQ within 100 days that can be counted as "confirmed" by your predictions. You also allow plus minus 1 day. So what is the probability that such an event happens in any three given days. You will be surprised but it is 32%. So does your predictions count if their probability to happen is 32%? I don't think so. Giving plenty of predictions you will eventually hit such an event and it will happen sooner than later. Sorry, man. This is just the statistics. So I am going to remove all predictions of such events unless it is MEGA quake that causes devastation.

If I am wrong convince me otherwise.
Quoting: Sergman

Sergman, to me this is an obvious hit. You are saying it is not. We have two opposing OPINIONS.

I thank you for the opportunity to state my case. I will post my reply in several parts starting first with the feedback of the other GLP users. Their majority OPINION seems obvious that this is a rare confirmed hit.

Users following my threads on this prediction seem like what I have been sharing with a surprising few calling is BS.

But this is your thread, and you are the judge of what you do on it. As you know I have been supporting it. Please consider the following replies (parts) from me below in your final decision and do what you think is right.
Quoting: TheTruthWorker

I am trying to be purely objective. That is why I calculated the probability that your predictions happen. Regarding the responses... Many people think that David Copperfield has god power that makes him fly. Does it mean it is true? If you show me that I am wrong in my calculation then I will admit my mistake.
Quoting: Sergman

1) The original purpose of your thread is to expose failed predictions. Objectivity might be swayed unintentionally.

2) You are calculating probabilities to invalidate my prediction. You should have done that before you added to the watch list, right? You don't post all predictions submitted here. Decide in advance if it is worthy. Deleting it after the fact would suck.

3) I can't fault your calculations as stated. But I could, but won't, point out other elements of probability not being taking into account. I am not trying to make dumb calls. If you don't like the odds -- don't judge it in the first place. I hope to layout future predictions that hit which you can't argue about.

4) I am no magician, prophet or con man. I am not hoping people are stupid, gullible or ignorant. Just looking to have a good time sharing some theories I'v been playing with on my own until now. And I like popcorn.

Quoting: TheTruthWorker

I include all predictions, failed and confirmed. It is obvious that 90% of them are BS. But I still believe people have ability to sense the future events. Just look how many ppl predicted the EQ in Japan. This is beyond probability. On the other hand I need to exclude trivial claim such as "something is gonna happen tomorrow". I need to consider probability of each prediction. And it is not always easy. The same was with your case. I do not claim that you are a false prophet. But what I imply here is that in your case it is more like analysis of correlation between EQs and asteroids. I will be happy to analyze your data in scientific way if you provide scientific data, lets say excel file with all the cases that hit or missed the predicted event. But it must include the explanation of what data is collected and also be comprehensive. So we can build a distribution function. Once it is done it will be easy to see if the events are randomly predicted or not.
For example, if you guess a side on which a coin will fall you have 50% of success. It is not prediction if you hit it once or twice. But if you are right 19 times and wrong 1, then your theory has solid base.
I hope you understand my point.
:bdance:
TheTruthWorker

User ID: 1307920
United States
04/15/2012 08:41 AM
Report Abusive Post
Re: List of false prophets and failed predictions.
...

Sergman, to me this is an obvious hit. You are saying it is not. We have two opposing OPINIONS.

I thank you for the opportunity to state my case. I will post my reply in several parts starting first with the feedback of the other GLP users. Their majority OPINION seems obvious that this is a rare confirmed hit.

Users following my threads on this prediction seem like what I have been sharing with a surprising few calling is BS.

But this is your thread, and you are the judge of what you do on it. As you know I have been supporting it. Please consider the following replies (parts) from me below in your final decision and do what you think is right.
Quoting: TheTruthWorker

I am trying to be purely objective. That is why I calculated the probability that your predictions happen. Regarding the responses... Many people think that David Copperfield has god power that makes him fly. Does it mean it is true? If you show me that I am wrong in my calculation then I will admit my mistake.
Quoting: Sergman

1) The original purpose of your thread is to expose failed predictions. Objectivity might be swayed unintentionally.

2) You are calculating probabilities to invalidate my prediction. You should have done that before you added to the watch list, right? You don't post all predictions submitted here. Decide in advance if it is worthy. Deleting it after the fact would suck.

3) I can't fault your calculations as stated. But I could, but won't, point out other elements of probability not being taking into account. I am not trying to make dumb calls. If you don't like the odds -- don't judge it in the first place. I hope to layout future predictions that hit which you can't argue about.

4) I am no magician, prophet or con man. I am not hoping people are stupid, gullible or ignorant. Just looking to have a good time sharing some theories I'v been playing with on my own until now. And I like popcorn.

Quoting: TheTruthWorker

I include all predictions, failed and confirmed. It is obvious that 90% of them are BS. But I still believe people have ability to sense the future events. Just look how many ppl predicted the EQ in Japan. This is beyond probability. On the other hand I need to exclude trivial claim such as "something is gonna happen tomorrow". I need to consider probability of each prediction. And it is not always easy. The same was with your case. I do not claim that you are a false prophet. But what I imply here is that in your case it is more like analysis of correlation between EQs and asteroids. I will be happy to analyze your data in scientific way if you provide scientific data, lets say excel file with all the cases that hit or missed the predicted event. But it must include the explanation of what data is collected and also be comprehensive. So we can build a distribution function. Once it is done it will be easy to see if the events are randomly predicted or not.
For example, if you guess a side on which a coin will fall you have 50% of success. It is not prediction if you hit it once or twice. But if you are right 19 times and wrong 1, then your theory has solid base.
I hope you understand my point.
Quoting: Sergman

Yes Serman, I see your point. You want predictions that statistically are very unlikely to occur by pure chance. Me too. You want enough specifics so that if the event happens it is verifiable yet and not too vague. I suggest you continue to weed out events that don't meet your criteria before adding to the list, like you have been.

Yes, I am searching for a patterns of asteroid close approach dates that have a corresponding earthquake dates. I search though dozens of objects before finding one that fits. My latest identified pattern for April 18 will have too much probability to meet your criteria so I do not expect you to put it on your list. But I posted my prediction for two reasons.
1) Those following my threads were anxious for another date to watch for, as they find my approach interesting, whether they would like to to see a fail or a win
2) I found two objects with historic patterns closing in on Earth the same day, which could magnify the chances of a big quake.

For my April 12th date I found 4 objects, two on April 10 and two on April 12th. Instead of saying and event would occur from April 9 to April 13, which would have too many probabilities of chance, I choose April 11-13.

After we got several quakes including two over 8 mag, making it a historic quake day, I also started to wonder if multiple objects in the same time frame add fuel to the fire.

As far as analyzing my data, it is all posted in my threads. I clearly late out the patterns and reasoning behind my forecast. I post links to the databases used. I post the relevant data on both the quakes and NEOs in the thread. There is not much more to it.

Besides my newest one for April 18, I have only shared three patterns on GLP: March 20, April 3 and April 12. I do not claim asteroids cause quakes, because no one has yet made that connection logically or scientifically (left-brain process), instead for my pattern recognition (right-brain process) to see if patterns continue or repeat or can be a reliable forecaster.

As far as the other probabilities I did NOT want to bring up, is the effect/chance of having getting a 4th matched date hit after 3 consistent past ones. I am not smart enough with probability math to analysis that. And I do realize a flipped coin that has turned up heads 10 times in a row still has a 50% chance of landing on heads on the 11th throw. But I would still bet on tails on the next throw.

People watch your list. Some like the exploring the confirmed ones best. Some like seeing so many fail. They comeback to check on status. Are you hosting it for your self or more for your visitors? I think you are service oriented. Whatever you do will not change the price of tea in China. Have a good one Sergman.

Anonymous Coward
User ID: 14444493
United States
04/15/2012 09:34 AM
Report Abusive Post
Re: List of false prophets and failed predictions.
...

I am trying to be purely objective. That is why I calculated the probability that your predictions happen. Regarding the responses... Many people think that David Copperfield has god power that makes him fly. Does it mean it is true? If you show me that I am wrong in my calculation then I will admit my mistake.
Quoting: Sergman

1) The original purpose of your thread is to expose failed predictions. Objectivity might be swayed unintentionally.

2) You are calculating probabilities to invalidate my prediction. You should have done that before you added to the watch list, right? You don't post all predictions submitted here. Decide in advance if it is worthy. Deleting it after the fact would suck.

3) I can't fault your calculations as stated. But I could, but won't, point out other elements of probability not being taking into account. I am not trying to make dumb calls. If you don't like the odds -- don't judge it in the first place. I hope to layout future predictions that hit which you can't argue about.

4) I am no magician, prophet or con man. I am not hoping people are stupid, gullible or ignorant. Just looking to have a good time sharing some theories I'v been playing with on my own until now. And I like popcorn.

Quoting: TheTruthWorker

I include all predictions, failed and confirmed. It is obvious that 90% of them are BS. But I still believe people have ability to sense the future events. Just look how many ppl predicted the EQ in Japan. This is beyond probability. On the other hand I need to exclude trivial claim such as "something is gonna happen tomorrow". I need to consider probability of each prediction. And it is not always easy. The same was with your case. I do not claim that you are a false prophet. But what I imply here is that in your case it is more like analysis of correlation between EQs and asteroids. I will be happy to analyze your data in scientific way if you provide scientific data, lets say excel file with all the cases that hit or missed the predicted event. But it must include the explanation of what data is collected and also be comprehensive. So we can build a distribution function. Once it is done it will be easy to see if the events are randomly predicted or not.
For example, if you guess a side on which a coin will fall you have 50% of success. It is not prediction if you hit it once or twice. But if you are right 19 times and wrong 1, then your theory has solid base.
I hope you understand my point.
Quoting: Sergman

Yes Serman, I see your point. You want predictions that statistically are very unlikely to occur by pure chance. Me too. You want enough specifics so that if the event happens it is verifiable yet and not too vague. I suggest you continue to weed out events that don't meet your criteria before adding to the list, like you have been.

Yes, I am searching for a patterns of asteroid close approach dates that have a corresponding earthquake dates. I search though dozens of objects before finding one that fits. My latest identified pattern for April 18 will have too much probability to meet your criteria so I do not expect you to put it on your list. But I posted my prediction for two reasons.
1) Those following my threads were anxious for another date to watch for, as they find my approach interesting, whether they would like to to see a fail or a win
2) I found two objects with historic patterns closing in on Earth the same day, which could magnify the chances of a big quake.

For my April 12th date I found 4 objects, two on April 10 and two on April 12th. Instead of saying and event would occur from April 9 to April 13, which would have too many probabilities of chance, I choose April 11-13.

After we got several quakes including two over 8 mag, making it a historic quake day, I also started to wonder if multiple objects in the same time frame add fuel to the fire.

As far as analyzing my data, it is all posted in my threads. I clearly late out the patterns and reasoning behind my forecast. I post links to the databases used. I post the relevant data on both the quakes and NEOs in the thread. There is not much more to it.

Besides my newest one for April 18, I have only shared three patterns on GLP: March 20, April 3 and April 12. I do not claim asteroids cause quakes, because no one has yet made that connection logically or scientifically (left-brain process), instead for my pattern recognition (right-brain process) to see if patterns continue or repeat or can be a reliable forecaster.

As far as the other probabilities I did NOT want to bring up, is the effect/chance of having getting a 4th matched date hit after 3 consistent past ones. I am not smart enough with probability math to analysis that. And I do realize a flipped coin that has turned up heads 10 times in a row still has a 50% chance of landing on heads on the 11th throw. But I would still bet on tails on the next throw.

People watch your list. Some like the exploring the confirmed ones best. Some like seeing so many fail. They comeback to check on status. Are you hosting it for your self or more for your visitors? I think you are service oriented. Whatever you do will not change the price of tea in China. Have a good one Sergman.

Quoting: TheTruthWorker

Ffs give up already, is this thread really that important to you that you have to be recognised as right all the time? the amount of times you post on here I would say so.

Send Serg your data if you are so sure you are right.

TheTruthWorker

User ID: 1307920
United States
04/15/2012 11:00 AM
Report Abusive Post
Re: List of false prophets and failed predictions.
...

1) The original purpose of your thread is to expose failed predictions. Objectivity might be swayed unintentionally.

2) You are calculating probabilities to invalidate my prediction. You should have done that before you added to the watch list, right? You don't post all predictions submitted here. Decide in advance if it is worthy. Deleting it after the fact would suck.

3) I can't fault your calculations as stated. But I could, but won't, point out other elements of probability not being taking into account. I am not trying to make dumb calls. If you don't like the odds -- don't judge it in the first place. I hope to layout future predictions that hit which you can't argue about.

4) I am no magician, prophet or con man. I am not hoping people are stupid, gullible or ignorant. Just looking to have a good time sharing some theories I'v been playing with on my own until now. And I like popcorn.

Quoting: TheTruthWorker

I include all predictions, failed and confirmed. It is obvious that 90% of them are BS. But I still believe people have ability to sense the future events. Just look how many ppl predicted the EQ in Japan. This is beyond probability. On the other hand I need to exclude trivial claim such as "something is gonna happen tomorrow". I need to consider probability of each prediction. And it is not always easy. The same was with your case. I do not claim that you are a false prophet. But what I imply here is that in your case it is more like analysis of correlation between EQs and asteroids. I will be happy to analyze your data in scientific way if you provide scientific data, lets say excel file with all the cases that hit or missed the predicted event. But it must include the explanation of what data is collected and also be comprehensive. So we can build a distribution function. Once it is done it will be easy to see if the events are randomly predicted or not.
For example, if you guess a side on which a coin will fall you have 50% of success. It is not prediction if you hit it once or twice. But if you are right 19 times and wrong 1, then your theory has solid base.
I hope you understand my point.
Quoting: Sergman

Yes Serman, I see your point. You want predictions that statistically are very unlikely to occur by pure chance. Me too. You want enough specifics so that if the event happens it is verifiable yet and not too vague. I suggest you continue to weed out events that don't meet your criteria before adding to the list, like you have been.

Yes, I am searching for a patterns of asteroid close approach dates that have a corresponding earthquake dates. I search though dozens of objects before finding one that fits. My latest identified pattern for April 18 will have too much probability to meet your criteria so I do not expect you to put it on your list. But I posted my prediction for two reasons.
1) Those following my threads were anxious for another date to watch for, as they find my approach interesting, whether they would like to to see a fail or a win
2) I found two objects with historic patterns closing in on Earth the same day, which could magnify the chances of a big quake.

For my April 12th date I found 4 objects, two on April 10 and two on April 12th. Instead of saying and event would occur from April 9 to April 13, which would have too many probabilities of chance, I choose April 11-13.

After we got several quakes including two over 8 mag, making it a historic quake day, I also started to wonder if multiple objects in the same time frame add fuel to the fire.

As far as analyzing my data, it is all posted in my threads. I clearly late out the patterns and reasoning behind my forecast. I post links to the databases used. I post the relevant data on both the quakes and NEOs in the thread. There is not much more to it.

Besides my newest one for April 18, I have only shared three patterns on GLP: March 20, April 3 and April 12. I do not claim asteroids cause quakes, because no one has yet made that connection logically or scientifically (left-brain process), instead for my pattern recognition (right-brain process) to see if patterns continue or repeat or can be a reliable forecaster.

As far as the other probabilities I did NOT want to bring up, is the effect/chance of having getting a 4th matched date hit after 3 consistent past ones. I am not smart enough with probability math to analysis that. And I do realize a flipped coin that has turned up heads 10 times in a row still has a 50% chance of landing on heads on the 11th throw. But I would still bet on tails on the next throw.

People watch your list. Some like the exploring the confirmed ones best. Some like seeing so many fail. They comeback to check on status. Are you hosting it for your self or more for your visitors? I think you are service oriented. Whatever you do will not change the price of tea in China. Have a good one Sergman.

Quoting: TheTruthWorker

Ffs give up already, is this thread really that important to you that you have to be recognised as right all the time? the amount of times you post on here I would say so.

Send Serg your data if you are so sure you are right.

Quoting: Anonymous Coward 14444493

I agree this is getting silly. I am done. All my data has been provided. His replies solicited added details back from me so I obliged.

:done:
Saint Vron

User ID: 14431645
United States
04/15/2012 11:11 PM
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Re: List of false prophets and failed predictions.
Obama the Antichrist will die Monday remember a day is the evening and the morning but not by the hand of man and he will come back to life, tomorrow the evening of April 16th including the morning of the 17th 2012 when that happens read Dan 12:11 and when you count the 1290 days keep in mind the end of the week has been moved up it is no-longer 1260 days even if it were you can see the problem of counting forward you would be surprised how many people devote research into years that do not exist so count backwards to the evening and morning of Oct. 4, 2008 it was the sabbath so beginning Saturday evening and ending at Sunday evening where was Obama on that day? He was at Lake Forrest, California being anointed by Miles McPherson the False Prophet, call Saddleback Church, the John McCain office, Christian Broadcast Network, or the Rock Church to verify.

Last Edited by Saint Vron on 04/17/2012 01:29 AM
Saint Vron
Saint Vron

User ID: 14431645
United States
04/15/2012 11:52 PM
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Re: List of false prophets and failed predictions.
This is the calender of events that I am sure of these dates are the evening and the next morning
April 16, 2012 Mark OF the BEAST
April 16, 2012 The Anointed One is Cut Off
April 16, 2012 Biden takes over as President for Obama
April 16, 2012 The trap catches everyone in the world
April 16, 2012 The Seventh King Is inaugurated
April 16, 2012 The regular offering is caused to cease
April 16, 2012 The middle of the week
April 16, 2012 The cashless society
April 16, 2012 EXILE
April 16, 2012 Captivity
April 16, 2012 The I.R.S. is abolished
April 16, 2012 The 1260th day
Nov. 6, 2012 The eternal Kingdom of our Lord and Savior Jesus Christ is set up.
Nov.13-14, 2012 The rising sun is darkened
Nov.13-14, 2012 The wind from Heaven
Nov,13-14, 2012 The moon turns red
Nov.13-14, 2012 The rapture
Nov.13-14, 2012 The Great Wine Press
Nov.13-14, 2012 The Day of the Lord
Nov.13-14, 2012 Jesus is the first born of the dead
Nov.13-14, 2012 The Father Takes the King of Kings to their throne.
Nov.13-14, 2012 The King of Kings returns to his holy mountains to greet his brothers as they gather he will be the first one there.
Nov.13-14, 2012 The End Of All Things
Day one of 1260 The foster mother of the King of Kings holds him in The Valley that will deliver all of us to Azal.
All the women with her get pregnant with God's Babies, and we are where he is also. And not a hair on our heads has ever or will ever be harmed. We are so precious to him that he counts each hair on our heads.

Last Edited by Saint Vron on 04/17/2012 01:16 AM
Saint Vron
Anonymous Coward
04/16/2012 11:31 PM
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Re: List of false prophets and failed predictions.
TheTruthWorker

User ID: 1307920
United States
04/17/2012 10:00 AM
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Re: List of false prophets and failed predictions.
This prediction fulfillment has to many chances for a hit to make your list

Thread: EARTHQUAKE!!! due to asteroids near Earth on April 18
Thread: HIT! April 17 earthquake was predicted on April 12
Sergman (OP)

User ID: 11883711
04/17/2012 02:13 PM
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Re: List of false prophets and failed predictions.
Quoting: TheTruthWorker

Does not count.
Here is why.

Just for this month this is what we got:

Magnitude 6.8 EASTERN NEW GUINEA REG, PAPUA NEW GUINEA April 17, 2012
Magnitude 6.7 OFFSHORE VALPARAISO, CHILE April 17, 2012
Magnitude 6.5 VANUATU April 14, 2012
Magnitude 6.9 GULF OF CALIFORNIA April 12, 2012
Magnitude 6.5 MICHOACAN, MEXICO April 11, 2012
Magnitude 5.9 OFF THE COAST OF OREGON April 11, 2012
Magnitude 8.2 OFF THE WEST COAST OF NORTHERN SUMATRA April 11, 2012
Magnitude 8.6 OFF THE WEST COAST OF NORTHERN SUMATRA April 11, 2012

11, 12, 14, 17. Plus minus one day we get:

10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18:
9 out of 17 days fall in your statistics which is 53%.
And if you count from April 10, then 100% chance to hit.

In March we had 7 significant EQ. +-1 days gives us 21 day: 70% to hit.

In February 6: 62%

In January 5: 48%

Overall 26 significant EQ from Jan 1. Giving plus/minus 1 day there are 78 days where your predictions hit. That means 72% to hit. So I was previously wrong saying it is around 30%. It is actually fat 72%. It is harder for your predictions not to hit the day. It is pure statistics. Please convince me otherwise.

Last Edited by Sergman on 04/17/2012 02:21 PM
:bdance:
TheTruthWorker

User ID: 1307920
United States
04/17/2012 02:31 PM
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Re: List of false prophets and failed predictions.
Quoting: TheTruthWorker

Does not count.
Here is why.

Just for this month this is what we got:

Magnitude 6.8 EASTERN NEW GUINEA REG, PAPUA NEW GUINEA April 17, 2012
Magnitude 6.7 OFFSHORE VALPARAISO, CHILE April 17, 2012
Magnitude 6.5 VANUATU April 14, 2012
Magnitude 6.9 GULF OF CALIFORNIA April 12, 2012
Magnitude 6.5 MICHOACAN, MEXICO April 11, 2012
Magnitude 5.9 OFF THE COAST OF OREGON April 11, 2012
Magnitude 8.2 OFF THE WEST COAST OF NORTHERN SUMATRA April 11, 2012
Magnitude 8.6 OFF THE WEST COAST OF NORTHERN SUMATRA April 11, 2012

11, 12, 14, 17. Plus minus one day we get:

10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18: 9 out of 17 days fall in your statistics which is 53%. Not really a small chance to hit.
Quoting: Sergman

Yes, understood. It does not count.

Here are the numbers I would use for the chance of a quake hitting on any DATE...

DATES with quakes 6.5 and over on USGS:

Jan 2012
PDE-W 2012 01 01 052755.98 31.46 138.07 365 6.8 MwWCMT 5FM .......
PDE-W 2012 01 10 183659.08 2.43 93.21 19 7.2 MwWCMT 4FM .......
PDE-W 2012 01 15 134019.54 -60.95 -56.11 8 6.6 MwWCMT ..M .......

FEB 2012
PDE-W 2012 02 02 133440.65 -17.83 167.13 23 7.1 MwWCMT 5FM .......
PDE-Q 2012 02 06 034912.52 10.00 123.21 11 6.7 MwWCMT 7CM ......S
PDE-Q 2012 02 26 061719.77 51.71 95.99 12 6.7 MwWCMT 5FM .......

Mar 2012
PDE-Q 2012 03 03 121955.09 -22.14 170.34 14 6.6 MwWCMT ..M .......
PDE-Q 2012 03 09 070950.95 -19.12 169.61 16 6.7 MwWCMT .FM .......
PDE-Q 2012 03 14 090835.14 40.89 144.94 12 6.9 MwWCMT 4FM .......
PDE-Q 2012 03 20 180247.74 16.52 -98.24 20 7.4 MwWCMT 8FM ..S....
PDE-Q 2012 03 21 221506.13 -6.24 145.96 118 6.6 MwWCMT 5FM .......
PDE-Q 2012 03 25 223706.75 -35.18 -71.79 34 7.1 MwWCMT ..M .......

Apr 2012
PDE-Q 2012 04 11 083837.36 2.31 93.06 22 8.6 MwWCMT ..M .......
PDE-Q 2012 04 12 071548.62 28.62 -113.12 13 6.9 MwGS ..M .......
Plus 2012 04 15 -- 6.5

15 QUAKE DATES thru April 16th
divided by 106 days
= one 6.5+ per 7 days
3 days divided by 7.2 = 43% just by chance
Whether 53% or 43%, just to many chances to hit.
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 14267198
04/17/2012 03:29 PM
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Re: List of false prophets and failed predictions.
Just look how many ppl predicted the EQ in Japan. This is beyond probability.
Quoting: Sergman

The prediction of a mega earthquake in Japan was not that impressive due the fact that a mega earthquake has happened in 5 of the 6 years directly prior to March 2011.

If Japan is hit with mega-earthquakes practically more then anywhere else in the world over the last decade, of course some observant internet prophets are going to make earthquake predictions for Japan. They thoughtfully use probability in their favor(nearly 90% to 100% chance of fulfillment within a small number of years or months even.) It's kind of like predicting rain in the first half of May. I don't think anyone would be impressed by the prediction of rain in the first half of May.

To boot, they probably all claimed their prediction or prophecy was fulfilled by the mag7.2 earthquake that hit Japan a few days before the biggest one. In that case they were not really predicting anything more than +7.0MAG quake.

So why would I use success on that prediction as evidence of their claims? Anyone can claim success off their high-probability predictions. The only thing about that prediction I find curious is that the prediction by 3 or 4 of these people were made a month before instead of let's say 9 months before a +7.0MAG quake should have happened based on the odds.
Sergman (OP)

User ID: 11883711
04/17/2012 06:09 PM
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Re: List of false prophets and failed predictions.
Quoting: TheTruthWorker

Does not count.
Here is why.

Just for this month this is what we got:

Magnitude 6.8 EASTERN NEW GUINEA REG, PAPUA NEW GUINEA April 17, 2012
Magnitude 6.7 OFFSHORE VALPARAISO, CHILE April 17, 2012
Magnitude 6.5 VANUATU April 14, 2012
Magnitude 6.9 GULF OF CALIFORNIA April 12, 2012
Magnitude 6.5 MICHOACAN, MEXICO April 11, 2012
Magnitude 5.9 OFF THE COAST OF OREGON April 11, 2012
Magnitude 8.2 OFF THE WEST COAST OF NORTHERN SUMATRA April 11, 2012
Magnitude 8.6 OFF THE WEST COAST OF NORTHERN SUMATRA April 11, 2012

11, 12, 14, 17. Plus minus one day we get:

10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18: 9 out of 17 days fall in your statistics which is 53%. Not really a small chance to hit.
Quoting: Sergman

Yes, understood. It does not count.

Here are the numbers I would use for the chance of a quake hitting on any DATE...

DATES with quakes 6.5 and over on USGS:

Jan 2012
PDE-W 2012 01 01 052755.98 31.46 138.07 365 6.8 MwWCMT 5FM .......
PDE-W 2012 01 10 183659.08 2.43 93.21 19 7.2 MwWCMT 4FM .......
PDE-W 2012 01 15 134019.54 -60.95 -56.11 8 6.6 MwWCMT ..M .......

FEB 2012
PDE-W 2012 02 02 133440.65 -17.83 167.13 23 7.1 MwWCMT 5FM .......
PDE-Q 2012 02 06 034912.52 10.00 123.21 11 6.7 MwWCMT 7CM ......S
PDE-Q 2012 02 26 061719.77 51.71 95.99 12 6.7 MwWCMT 5FM .......

Mar 2012
PDE-Q 2012 03 03 121955.09 -22.14 170.34 14 6.6 MwWCMT ..M .......
PDE-Q 2012 03 09 070950.95 -19.12 169.61 16 6.7 MwWCMT .FM .......
PDE-Q 2012 03 14 090835.14 40.89 144.94 12 6.9 MwWCMT 4FM .......
PDE-Q 2012 03 20 180247.74 16.52 -98.24 20 7.4 MwWCMT 8FM ..S....
PDE-Q 2012 03 21 221506.13 -6.24 145.96 118 6.6 MwWCMT 5FM .......
PDE-Q 2012 03 25 223706.75 -35.18 -71.79 34 7.1 MwWCMT ..M .......

Apr 2012
PDE-Q 2012 04 11 083837.36 2.31 93.06 22 8.6 MwWCMT ..M .......
PDE-Q 2012 04 12 071548.62 28.62 -113.12 13 6.9 MwGS ..M .......
Plus 2012 04 15 -- 6.5

15 QUAKE DATES thru April 16th
divided by 106 days
= one 6.5+ per 7 days
3 days divided by 7.2 = 43% just by chance
Whether 53% or 43%, just to many chances to hit.
Quoting: TheTruthWorker

+1 to your karma for being objective to yourself.
:bdance:
Sergman (OP)

User ID: 11883711
04/17/2012 06:52 PM
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Re: List of false prophets and failed predictions.
I revised confirmed and partially confirmed cases of EQ predictions. I decided to remove from the list those that have high chance of probability.

removed (58% hit chance):
Dec 12, 2011: PARTIALLY CONFIRMED
EQ doom by "Yes I Did !!!!"

changed to BUSTED (actually nothing happened. I don't know why it was listed as partially confirmed):
Dec 31, 2011: PARTIALLY CONFIRMED
by Dreamer11
Thread: Dream of a big earthquake hitting around the New Year

removed (52% hit chance):
Dec 31, 2011: CONFIRMED
by Solarwatch
Thread: Possible large earthquake to strike within the next 24-48 hours

removed (50% hit chance):
March 20, 2012: CONFIRMED
by TheTruthWorker
Thread: HIT! March 20 earthquake in Mexico was predicted on March 14

removed (giving 2 days off means it has 5 days window, thus the hit chance is 100%):
March 22, 2012: PARTIALLY CONFIRMED
Thread: 188 days between major Earthquakes

removed (same as above):
March 22, 2012: PARTIALLY CONFIRMED
Thread: 188 DAY PATTERN of MAJOR QUAKES & ILLUMINATI 322 MARCH 22nd Connected to another date with 223? Webbot Warning, Iran War/Nuke Terrorism?

removed (same as above):
March 17-22, 2012: PARTIALLY CONFIRMED
by Heath loves Earth
Thread: FUTURE THREAT: Massive earthquake and tsunami on the East Coast

removed (around 50% hit chance)
April 12, 2012:
by TheTruthWorker
Thread: EARTHQUAKE!!! due to asteroids near Earth on April 12th

Next time I will be more meticulous to EQ predictions

Last Edited by Sergman on 04/17/2012 07:07 PM
:bdance:
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 14659116
United States
04/18/2012 05:04 PM
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Re: List of false prophets and failed predictions.
Fail
Thread: SOUTHERN HEMESPHERE LARGER QUAKE IN 3-4 HOURS
Anonymous Coward
04/18/2012 10:33 PM
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Re: List of false prophets and failed predictions.
TheTruthWorker

User ID: 14354297
United States
04/18/2012 11:04 PM
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Re: List of false prophets and failed predictions.

What are the odds?
TheTruthWorker

User ID: 14354297
United States
04/18/2012 11:37 PM
Report Abusive Post
Re: List of false prophets and failed predictions.
I revised confirmed and partially confirmed cases of EQ predictions. I decided to remove from the list those that have high chance of probability.

removed (58% hit chance):
Dec 12, 2011: PARTIALLY CONFIRMED
EQ doom by "Yes I Did !!!!"

changed to BUSTED (actually nothing happened. I don't know why it was listed as partially confirmed):
Dec 31, 2011: PARTIALLY CONFIRMED
by Dreamer11
Thread: Dream of a big earthquake hitting around the New Year

removed (52% hit chance):
Dec 31, 2011: CONFIRMED
by Solarwatch
Thread: Possible large earthquake to strike within the next 24-48 hours

removed (50% hit chance):
March 20, 2012: CONFIRMED
by TheTruthWorker
Thread: HIT! March 20 earthquake in Mexico was predicted on March 14

removed (giving 2 days off means it has 5 days window, thus the hit chance is 100%):
March 22, 2012: PARTIALLY CONFIRMED
Thread: 188 days between major Earthquakes

removed (same as above):
March 22, 2012: PARTIALLY CONFIRMED
Thread: 188 DAY PATTERN of MAJOR QUAKES & ILLUMINATI 322 MARCH 22nd Connected to another date with 223? Webbot Warning, Iran War/Nuke Terrorism?

removed (same as above):
March 17-22, 2012: PARTIALLY CONFIRMED
by Heath loves Earth
Thread: FUTURE THREAT: Massive earthquake and tsunami on the East Coast

removed (around 50% hit chance)
April 12, 2012:
by TheTruthWorker
Thread: EARTHQUAKE!!! due to asteroids near Earth on April 12th

Next time I will be more meticulous to EQ predictions
Quoting: Sergman

I've tried to ignore this post. But... your math is way off for date prediction. There are about 30 days in a month, or 30 DATES that a prediction can occur on a date. If 2 quakes hit on day 1 and then 2 quakes hit on day 30, that is 4 quakes on 2 DATES. The chance of hitting a DATE is 2 out of 30, not 4 out of 30.
Sergman (OP)

User ID: 11883711
04/19/2012 01:27 AM
Report Abusive Post
Re: List of false prophets and failed predictions.
I revised confirmed and partially confirmed cases of EQ predictions. I decided to remove from the list those that have high chance of probability.

removed (58% hit chance):
Dec 12, 2011: PARTIALLY CONFIRMED
EQ doom by "Yes I Did !!!!"

changed to BUSTED (actually nothing happened. I don't know why it was listed as partially confirmed):
Dec 31, 2011: PARTIALLY CONFIRMED
by Dreamer11
Thread: Dream of a big earthquake hitting around the New Year

removed (52% hit chance):
Dec 31, 2011: CONFIRMED
by Solarwatch
Thread: Possible large earthquake to strike within the next 24-48 hours

removed (50% hit chance):
March 20, 2012: CONFIRMED
by TheTruthWorker
Thread: HIT! March 20 earthquake in Mexico was predicted on March 14

removed (giving 2 days off means it has 5 days window, thus the hit chance is 100%):
March 22, 2012: PARTIALLY CONFIRMED
Thread: 188 days between major Earthquakes

removed (same as above):
March 22, 2012: PARTIALLY CONFIRMED
Thread: 188 DAY PATTERN of MAJOR QUAKES & ILLUMINATI 322 MARCH 22nd Connected to another date with 223? Webbot Warning, Iran War/Nuke Terrorism?

removed (same as above):
March 17-22, 2012: PARTIALLY CONFIRMED
by Heath loves Earth
Thread: FUTURE THREAT: Massive earthquake and tsunami on the East Coast

removed (around 50% hit chance)
April 12, 2012:
by TheTruthWorker
Thread: EARTHQUAKE!!! due to asteroids near Earth on April 12th

Next time I will be more meticulous to EQ predictions
Quoting: Sergman

I've tried to ignore this post. But... your math is way off for date prediction. There are about 30 days in a month, or 30 DATES that a prediction can occur on a date. If 2 quakes hit on day 1 and then 2 quakes hit on day 30, that is 4 quakes on 2 DATES. The chance of hitting a DATE is 2 out of 30, not 4 out of 30.
Quoting: TheTruthWorker

Most EQs occur in different day. The percentage is average and might fluctuate +/- few percent but not much. It also depends what period of time we count. I calculated by month. If you think I am wrong show me where.
:bdance:
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 12755414
United States
04/20/2012 07:55 PM
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Re: List of false prophets and failed predictions.
*sigh*
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 14249851
United States
04/22/2012 04:33 PM
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Re: List of false prophets and failed predictions.
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 14796594
Argentina
04/23/2012 03:24 PM
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Re: List of false prophets and failed predictions.
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 14796594
Argentina
04/23/2012 03:31 PM
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Re: List of false prophets and failed predictions.
Quoting: Anonymous Coward 14796594

Oh it was already posted sorry.

It's really sad to see how many wrong predictions are published on this site.
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 1548221
Brazil
04/23/2012 03:36 PM
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Re: List of false prophets and failed predictions.
April 23 doom - BUSTED.

Move along.
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 11270410
United States
04/23/2012 03:49 PM
Report Abusive Post
Re: List of false prophets and failed predictions.
April 23 doom - BUSTED.

Move along.
Quoting: Anonymous Coward 1548221

We still have time but i bet your right. lol
Sergman (OP)

User ID: 11883711
04/23/2012 08:37 PM
Report Abusive Post
Re: List of false prophets and failed predictions.
Update

April 17-22, 2012: BUSTED
8+ EQ in West Coast
Thread: Calling it right NOW/West Coast/ Earthquake/This week...

April 23, 2012: BUSTED
Global doom event by Rosy April 23
Thread: Psychic messages for 2012 I was asked to share with all (April & November)

April 23, 2012: BUSTED
Thread: 4-23-12 - Conspiracy Theory (1997) Movie - False Flag?
Thread: This Is It!! Hidden in Movie Conspiracy Theory!!

April 23, 2012: BUSTED
by Hunter of Truth
Thread: Mel Gibson April 23rd significant date from movie Conspiracy Theory.

Last Edited by Sergman on 04/23/2012 08:38 PM
:bdance: