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WARNING! Remember The Failed Russian Spacecraft That was suppose to go to Phobos? Would a failed craft be still in perfect orbit?

 
Timetraveler
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12/01/2011 11:03 AM
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WARNING! Remember The Failed Russian Spacecraft That was suppose to go to Phobos? Would a failed craft be still in perfect orbit?
Supposedly, this "failed" craft is keeping a pretty decent orbit and even increasing in altitude in order to keep this orbit. Something is up!

I don't believe for a minute the Russians meant to launch this huge craft to go to Mars. It may be misinformation, an excuse for having this craft orbit the Earth and it has a hidden mission. This may have to do with the increasing tension in the Mideast. It may be a "star wars" weapon ready to strike, and when it does, they can blame it on the so called failed space craft and its tons of hazardous fuel. Something doesn't feel right.

Can anyone dig up any info on this?
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Timetraveler (OP)

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12/01/2011 11:15 AM
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Re: WARNING! Remember The Failed Russian Spacecraft That was suppose to go to Phobos? Would a failed craft be still in perfect orbit?
This has been orbiting since Nov. 9th. Brief contact was made and the signal was picked up by those who are tracking this thing, then silence. Is it possible the Russians changed it's frequency so others couldn't trace it?
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Anonymous Coward
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12/01/2011 11:17 AM
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Re: WARNING! Remember The Failed Russian Spacecraft That was suppose to go to Phobos? Would a failed craft be still in perfect orbit?
Let's taht is teh Russian X-37B version afro if that aint an awsome cloak heck
Timetraveler (OP)

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12/01/2011 11:17 AM
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Re: WARNING! Remember The Failed Russian Spacecraft That was suppose to go to Phobos? Would a failed craft be still in perfect orbit?
This has been orbiting since Nov. 9th. Brief contact was made and the signal was picked up by those who are tracking this thing, then silence. Is it possible the Russians changed it's frequency so others couldn't trace it?
 Quoting: Timetraveler


Here's the link. Any interest? This could be the doom we are looking for.

[link to www.news-about-space.org]
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Timetraveler (OP)

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12/01/2011 11:18 AM
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Re: WARNING! Remember The Failed Russian Spacecraft That was suppose to go to Phobos? Would a failed craft be still in perfect orbit?
Let's taht is teh Russian X-37B version afro if that aint an awsome cloak heck
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 4084781


It sure is a cloak. I am surprised no one has thought too much about this.
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Anonymous Coward
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12/01/2011 11:44 AM
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Re: WARNING! Remember The Failed Russian Spacecraft That was suppose to go to Phobos? Would a failed craft be still in perfect orbit?
think it was on last nights coast about this, not listened to it yet.
Astromut
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12/01/2011 11:49 AM

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Re: WARNING! Remember The Failed Russian Spacecraft That was suppose to go to Phobos? Would a failed craft be still in perfect orbit?
Supposedly, this "failed" craft is keeping a pretty decent orbit and even increasing in altitude in order to keep this orbit. Something is up!
 Quoting: Timetraveler


I wouldn't call 307 km x 209 km a perfect orbit. The orbit is decaying, slowly. That said, you are actually right that it did appear to increase altitude slightly with a low delta-V impulse, about 1.3 to 1.6 m/s, and it may have been doing so as it passed over Baikonur (though the last part is highly uncertain).
[link to satobs.org]
Overall its orbit is still decreasing though, the apparent impulse was too small to completely offset the rate of decay. It is unknown whether this was an intentional manuever or continuous venting.

"Had its orbit continued to decay at the original rate, the payload would be at least 0.9 km lower as of epoch
11316.39501126. The probable cause appears to be manoeuvring or venting. Whether it is continuous or a series of events,
is unclear.

Also less clear is whether the onset correlates with one of the passes within range of Baikonur, as I speculated
yesterday. I will continue to look into that possibility, but it now seems less likely than it did."
[link to satobs.org]
Since then, the rate of decay has returned to normal:
"The three TLEs issued since my post this morning reveal that the rate of decay has returned to approximately its value prior to the recent orbit change. So back to normal, at least for now."
[link to satobs.org]

Why the decay was slowed for a while is a mystery though. How did you find this info, OP (or did you hear it somewhere else)?

Last Edited by Dr. Astro on 12/01/2011 11:49 AM
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12/01/2011 11:49 AM
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Re: WARNING! Remember The Failed Russian Spacecraft That was suppose to go to Phobos? Would a failed craft be still in perfect orbit?
The craft failed because the guidance system was unable to align itself with the proper stars. This must be done in order enter the proper trajectory to intersect with Mars' gravity well and enter Martian orbit. A stable orbit would be required in order for this step to take place before the order to fire the engine to break earth orbit. My understanding is that there was either a software issue with the guidance program or the probe was in a tumble that could not be corrected with the thrusters on the rocket that was to be used for the trans-martian coast trajectory.

There is a narrow window for the probe to leave earth orbit in order to be on a trajectory to intersect with Mars. there are various reasons such as orbital sequences of Earth and Mars, the path intended ( sometimes probes will flyby Venus or even the Earth to gain momentum and align trajectory), as well as the amount of fuel in the booster. If the probe is still viable and they can get a new guidance program uploaded or correct the tumble it could be sent on its way again when the orbits of Mars and Earth are in proper alignment.

It is not a conspiracy unless for want to blame Issac Newton!!!

There was a probe to Mars that really did fail because of Newton. I am talking about the unit of force. I am not sure if it was an American probe or British ( Beagle if Brit ) where the calculations for the amount of force needed in the retro-rocket to slow the probe before it descended into the Martian atmosphere was calculated in Lbs of force instead of Newtons.

Now this may be a real conspiracy because in High School Physics class ( the way I teach it ) Day 1 we learn Newton's Laws of Motion. F=MA Day 1 and proper units of Measurement. I am sure that cover this little tidbit in ROCKET SCIENTIST SCHOOL!!!@#$$$

So what do all of you think?
Timetraveler (OP)

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12/01/2011 11:58 AM
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Re: WARNING! Remember The Failed Russian Spacecraft That was suppose to go to Phobos? Would a failed craft be still in perfect orbit?
Supposedly, this "failed" craft is keeping a pretty decent orbit and even increasing in altitude in order to keep this orbit. Something is up!
 Quoting: Timetraveler


I wouldn't call 307 km x 209 km a perfect orbit. The orbit is decaying, slowly. That said, you are actually right that it did appear to increase altitude slightly with a low delta-V impulse, about 1.3 to 1.6 m/s, and it may have been doing so as it passed over Baikonur (though the last part is highly uncertain).
[link to satobs.org]
Overall its orbit is still decreasing though, the apparent impulse was too small to completely offset the rate of decay. It is unknown whether this was an intentional manuever or continuous venting.

"Had its orbit continued to decay at the original rate, the payload would be at least 0.9 km lower as of epoch
11316.39501126. The probable cause appears to be manoeuvring or venting. Whether it is continuous or a series of events,
is unclear.

Also less clear is whether the onset correlates with one of the passes within range of Baikonur, as I speculated
yesterday. I will continue to look into that possibility, but it now seems less likely than it did."
[link to satobs.org]
Since then, the rate of decay has returned to normal:
"The three TLEs issued since my post this morning reveal that the rate of decay has returned to approximately its value prior to the recent orbit change. So back to normal, at least for now."
[link to satobs.org]

Why the decay was slowed for a while is a mystery though. How did you find this info, OP (or did you hear it somewhere else)?
 Quoting: Astromut


I heard it on Coast to Coast last night, so this morning I did some research on my own. In the beginning, the Russian space agency claimed it would come down in weeks to a month. It has almost been a month, and now there is talk that it could continue in orbit till February. That seems highly unusual.

[link to www.theblaze.com]
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Astromut
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User ID: 4211721
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12/01/2011 12:11 PM

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Re: WARNING! Remember The Failed Russian Spacecraft That was suppose to go to Phobos? Would a failed craft be still in perfect orbit?
Supposedly, this "failed" craft is keeping a pretty decent orbit and even increasing in altitude in order to keep this orbit. Something is up!
 Quoting: Timetraveler


I wouldn't call 307 km x 209 km a perfect orbit. The orbit is decaying, slowly. That said, you are actually right that it did appear to increase altitude slightly with a low delta-V impulse, about 1.3 to 1.6 m/s, and it may have been doing so as it passed over Baikonur (though the last part is highly uncertain).
[link to satobs.org]
Overall its orbit is still decreasing though, the apparent impulse was too small to completely offset the rate of decay. It is unknown whether this was an intentional manuever or continuous venting.

"Had its orbit continued to decay at the original rate, the payload would be at least 0.9 km lower as of epoch
11316.39501126. The probable cause appears to be manoeuvring or venting. Whether it is continuous or a series of events,
is unclear.

Also less clear is whether the onset correlates with one of the passes within range of Baikonur, as I speculated
yesterday. I will continue to look into that possibility, but it now seems less likely than it did."
[link to satobs.org]
Since then, the rate of decay has returned to normal:
"The three TLEs issued since my post this morning reveal that the rate of decay has returned to approximately its value prior to the recent orbit change. So back to normal, at least for now."
[link to satobs.org]

Why the decay was slowed for a while is a mystery though. How did you find this info, OP (or did you hear it somewhere else)?
 Quoting: Astromut


I heard it on Coast to Coast last night, so this morning I did some research on my own. In the beginning, the Russian space agency claimed it would come down in weeks to a month. It has almost been a month, and now there is talk that it could continue in orbit till February. That seems highly unusual.

[link to www.theblaze.com]
 Quoting: Timetraveler


In and of itself, that's actually not unusual. Predicting exact decay times is not trivial. The rate of decay is highly dependent on solar activity, which is variable. Solar activity will determine the amount of orbital drag the vehicle experiences from the atmosphere, which in turn will determine when it actually re-enters. It's rather serendipitous then that amateur astronomers actually did detect a temporary reduction in its rate of orbital decay, while the rocket body continued to decay at its previous rate indicating some kind of impulse from the probe itself that kept it from decaying as fast. It's since returned to normal though, and the rocket body's still up there as well, just at a lower altitude (in fact, it should be re-entering practically any minute now).
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Timetraveler (OP)

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12/01/2011 12:20 PM
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Re: WARNING! Remember The Failed Russian Spacecraft That was suppose to go to Phobos? Would a failed craft be still in perfect orbit?
I will certainly be watching for that re entry with great interest. Especially with that payload it's carrying.
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