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Message Subject WARNING! Remember The Failed Russian Spacecraft That was suppose to go to Phobos? Would a failed craft be still in perfect orbit?

Poster Handle Astromut

Post Content

Supposedly, this "failed" craft is keeping a pretty decent orbit and even increasing in altitude in order to keep this orbit. Something is up!

Quoting: Timetraveler

I wouldn't call 307 km x 209 km a perfect orbit. The orbit is decaying, slowly. That said, you are actually right that it did appear to increase altitude slightly with a low delta-V impulse, about 1.3 to 1.6 m/s, and it may have been doing so as it passed over Baikonur (though the last part is highly uncertain).
[link to satobs.org]
Overall its orbit is still decreasing though, the apparent impulse was too small to completely offset the rate of decay. It is unknown whether this was an intentional manuever or continuous venting.

"Had its orbit continued to decay at the original rate, the payload would be at least 0.9 km lower as of epoch
11316.39501126. The probable cause appears to be manoeuvring or venting. Whether it is continuous or a series of events,
is unclear.

Also less clear is whether the onset correlates with one of the passes within range of Baikonur, as I speculated
yesterday. I will continue to look into that possibility, but it now seems less likely than it did."
[link to satobs.org]
Since then, the rate of decay has returned to normal:
"The three TLEs issued since my post this morning reveal that the rate of decay has returned to approximately its value prior to the recent orbit change. So back to normal, at least for now."
[link to satobs.org]

Why the decay was slowed for a while is a mystery though. How did you find this info, OP (or did you hear it somewhere else)?

Quoting: Astromut

I heard it on Coast to Coast last night, so this morning I did some research on my own. In the beginning, the Russian space agency claimed it would come down in weeks to a month. It has almost been a month, and now there is talk that it could continue in orbit till February. That seems highly unusual.

[link to www.theblaze.com]

Quoting: Timetraveler

In and of itself, that's actually not unusual. Predicting exact decay times is not trivial. The rate of decay is highly dependent on solar activity, which is variable. Solar activity will determine the amount of orbital drag the vehicle experiences from the atmosphere, which in turn will determine when it actually re-enters. It's rather serendipitous then that amateur astronomers actually did detect a temporary reduction in its rate of orbital decay, while the rocket body continued to decay at its previous rate indicating some kind of impulse from the probe itself that kept it from decaying as fast. It's since returned to normal though, and the rocket body's still up there as well, just at a lower altitude (in fact, it should be re-entering practically any minute now).

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