Iraq an economic Study

Its a ways away. 10 hrs bus ride, maybe 400 miles. sk

[link to dinaralert.webs.com]

Kaperoni looks at the RV, free float, and CBI issues.

I thought I would try and put together something that tells us where we are at…

In recent days, many articles have surfaced that have changed the landscape of the Event. Whether an RV or free float, it appears that changes are in the works.

Here is what I see has happened…

I believe last year, and again this Spring (April), the CBI’s plan was an “overnight” RV at 1 to $1 or thereabouts. This was confirmed in the SIGIR report and various articles. We even had a video from economists in Iraq stating this was a “Staging Rate.” Which makes sense in many ways in order for Iraq to bring their currency to an international level, start the process of de-dollarization, and move the economy and investment forward.

Unfortunately, the GOI, and particularly, the CoM has been adamantly against this plan from the beginning and stopped it. Thanks can go out to Maliki for this as it’s his GOI and his CoM, which also included his economic advisor. They issued many statements as reasons why this should not proceed, which included that it would drain Iraq’s reserves, extensive counterfeiting, corruption, etc. In any event, they got their way despite the CBI’s autonomous independence. I think this plan was pretty much dead within a few weeks after the April incident.

In June 2012, the CBI held a high level Symposium attended by economists, banking experts, the CBI, etc. To come up with a new solution to achieve the same results...which is raising the value of the dinar to move the economy forward. A new plan that would address the complaints from the GOI and CoM and prevent them from stopping monetary policy and progress. That plan was kept under tight wraps until just last month when videos and articles started to surface from the June Symposium.

At DinarAlert, this team was aware of some of the new details, which we shared as we found them out...details which included a change from the RV to a free float. This information was sketchy at best as we don’t know if this is an interbanking (institutional) float or FOREX float, but nontheless we shared what we knew. We discussed how this would occur, which brought in an ECN network, or Market Maker, which was coined “facilitator” by Enorrste – the professor - and boy was he right on! Nobody else in this investment had a clue to the information we had. In fact, many disregarded it...thought we had lost our mind or refused to comment and kept pushing the RV.

In the last few days articles have surfaced, which in my mind no doubt put an end to the RV which would have been part of the “delete 3 zeros” Event. This quote confirms it…“taking into consideration that the Iraqi dinar is covered by more than sixty billion dollars can be increased day by day, which eventually lead to the disappearance of zeros automatically one after another and publicly come back to this topic again after several years of seeing positive returns that emerged due to the prudent policies and legislation.” And this one from the Arab Monetary Fund…“Confirmed the Arab Monetary Fund said Iraq from among the countries which depend on the system flotation orbit currency exchange,” and this final one… “He Alkrasna adopt all of Iraq, Tunisia, Algeria, Mauritania and Sudan system "floating orbit of exchange", where value is determined currency in the market, according to the forces of supply and demand, and the government to intervene when necessary to re-route the exchange rate, in line with a set of criteria including the status of the current account and currency reserves foreign, depends both Egypt and Yemen floating exchange system.”

There is clear indication that the decision was made to put off the new currency change (the one with Kurdish language) to 2014 or even 2015. I no longer think there is any chance that a “staging rate” will occur. For the very reasons the GOI/CoM is against it.

With this new plan came many logistical issues. I believe the Iraqi Banking Conference was a chance to finalize some of those issues with the participants needed to make this "new plan” work. A free float of the dinar to begin in very short order. As for currency in Iraq, the CBI already had smaller denominations from the original set of currency, which can be issued as the dinar rises. And a recent article about the condition of the current state of the dinar in Iraq tells us these two things… “And adds that the benefit the next two months will witness the withdrawal of currency damaged and replaced with new ones from the reservoir replacement and compensation” and “He points out that there are other solutions to include them central part of its future plans in the project to delete the zeros from the currency, which include put metal coins of small denominations as part of a restructuring of coins in Iraq, which are of greater benefit in use among citizens.” So there is a plan to support the currency as the rate rises in value.

The problem with this plan is it infuriates the GOI, primarily Maliki because he has not been able to stop the progress the CBI wants to implement supporting the economic growth within Iraq. As a result, Maliki has gone on a “witch hunt” to find some sort of corruption within the CBI...even going so far as to create a special committee to investigate the CBI. Maliki’s own party MP Jubouri has stated on numerous occasion he is certain that there is corruption within the CBI and they will expose it. This, in my opinion, is a clear attempt to not only stop the CBI’s plan, but to take over control of the CBI. Which would be disastrous in many ways if they succeed. Over the last few days, they have announced a “final report” was completed in this investigation. And today this quote came out from the White block, which is clearly part of the Maliki’s offensive move to stop the CBI… “Mayahi announced that the Committee's report will waste heads large and influential figures in the central bank, in addition to a number of banks.”

This does not leave us in a real good light. Though a new plan is in place for a free float of the Iraqi dinar, it is clear that Maliki does not want this to proceed and is doing whatever he can to stop it. Will he have success? Only time will tell.

I encourage this post to be shared. The key here is to get this information out. To get the gurus off the high rates and fake dates and convey the facts of what is really happening in this investment. Though it is not the news we all want to hear it is reality, and reality is better than crazy rates, dates, and false promises of substantial wealth overnight. There is huge potential for this to still work out in our best interest as the dinar rises in value over time (1 to $1 is very realistic in short order) in the new “free float” mechanism. As long as Maliki does not interfere.

Kap

Last Edited by ReVbo™ on 10/03/2012 03:09 PM

Enorrste's response to Kaperoni's post:

Thanks, KAP, for a well presented summary of our current situation. I

agree with you 100% on your analysis. Along with the rest of you I

remain concerned about how much influence Maliki has or will have in

restraining Shabibi. However, given the fact that Shabibi has been

astute enough to enlist the support of the entire Parliament plus most

of the influential economists in the country prior to his "going

public" with these various conferences, it seems to me that he is

determined to move ahead with or without GOI approval.

It is also clear that Shabibi does not have the GOI behind him at this

point. This is evident in that he has set back the "remove the three

zeros" and the introduction of the new currency until at least 2014.

However, as we have stated in prior calls, the changing of the rate is

still in play and can occur at any time. Once he releases the

currency to float freely in the market, which is entirely his right to

do, Maliki will have no control over the rise in the value of the IQD.

And for us, that is all that matters. Once the rate is released we

need no longer concern ourselves with the petty rivalries within the

country itself. We must keep this in mind and keep our focus on the

rate change only. Everything else is just politics.

Enorrste

Last Edited by ReVbo™ on 10/03/2012 03:51 PM

good post, Rev!

Appreciate reading a summary of what is going on. thanks Rev.

10-4-2012 Newhound Guru Doc There was a great article that came out of London that was an interview with Allawi...Allawi was quoted as saying "Maliki was put into power to make reforms. He was supported by the US and Iran". Allawi went on to say there were enough votes to have him removed but threats by Iran and pressure from the US changed enough votes for Talibini to stop the process. Allawi is quoted as "pressure from the US was due to the upcoming election". Allawi continued by saying there is enough support to bring Maliki before Parliament for questioning. The jist here was if Maliki didn't play ball it would happen sooner than later. Allawi even mentioned Maliki's attempt to take over the CBI. Allawi summed it up by saying there would not be a National Meeting and he and his bloc would not attend. He said "Ebril was approved and simply needs to be implemented". It was quite clear from the interview that the major political stumbling block are the issues surrounding Ebril. [Post 1 of 2 Stay tuned for the rest of the story....]


10-4-2012 Newshound Guru Doc We are seeing more and more articles talking about a "float" for the currency. We stated in the past we believe this to be a real scenario. It would allow the CBI and Iraq the best economic position. The float would increase the value based on supply/demand and we speculate the CBI would make a ton of money on buy/sell transactions. It would also allow the market to determine the value based on Iraq's fundamental economics and not politics like under Saddam. We would also speculate the CBI would support the dinar at some minimum levels. If the float is reality it pretty well discredits the rumors of a high ($3+) initial or RV rate. We report, you decide.



Read more: [link to www.dinarguru.com]

Economist: you must apply three zeros deleted project citizen service and local currency

Friday, 05 October 2012 14: 33

The Economist stressed Abdulhasan alshammari, need to apply project delete three zeros currency because it hurt to serve the citizens and national currency by reducing cash large groups of blocks in the local market.

He said Al-shammari (News News Agency): the implementation of the restructuring of the Iraqi currency after deleting three zeros were necessary because it will serve the citizen and national economy as large groups would turn into a small unit, which will facilitate market transactions and accounts for State services.

He added: the project will provide additional financial resources for the country through printed coins (dinar and half quarter dinar, dinar) where the life span of these categories (25), while older paper no later than three months it's quick handling and damage.

He noted: the State printed annually from the limits of banknotes (250-750) million dollars per year, when implementing the project will slash the Federal Government from printing new currencies annually, provided funds can be utilized in projects of the country.

The Central Bank is preparing to implement a project to delete the three zeros national currency after completing all procedures relating to the project, but so far no date has been set because application calls by some officials to postpone it.

The Council demanded that the Prime Minister of the Central Bank to wait to delete the three zeros from the local currency, saying that a large project and needs sufficient time to apply

Read more: [link to 131.253.14.66]

Kaperoni:
Sometimes the best articles are slipped in. Though this is not from the CBI, it is a very good article.

As Bob already said, it clearly says that you have to apply this now because if you don't it will hurt the citizen and the currency because you removed the 3 zero notes (reduced the cash large groups). This also confirms we are right they are removing them. Even though LOPers keep telling everyone they are not. lol There is no reason to remove these notes if they were LOPing the value in advance of the re-denomination.

This is confirmation again, that the CBI removed the larger 3 zero notes. And as we read already this spring, the CBI took trillions of them out of circulation through the auctions. Some 12-16 trillion alone in April-July.

This economist is right on..he is saying you cannot take our currency away, and do nothing and not hurt the people and the currency. It makes sense to me he is right.

Now,. you add the article from the other day about the condition of the currency, and the problem IMO becomes even more serious. They simply cannot do nothing. The country is very dollarized right now and that needs to change. I cannot see the CBI continuing this for weeks, let alone months under the current circumstances.

Admin_Bob:
He (Iraqi economist) makes a very valid point, you have removed the large notes so you must apply this.. "need to apply project delete three zeros currency because it hurt to serve the citizens and national currency by reducing cash large groups of blocks in the local market."

They're talking about HCL on Fox Business now. Maybe something is actually about to happen, as Montana has been mentioning in his chats the last couple weeks.

[link to www.foxbusiness.com]

The federal government in Baghdad and the semi-autonomous region of Kurdistan in northern Iraq could soon reach an agreement on a new draft hydrocarbon law that would help resolve an impasse over who should control oil resources, Iraq's oil minister said Thursday.
Disputes between the federal government in Baghdad and the Kurdistan Regional Government in Erbil have prevented agreement on a draft federal oil and gas law for more than five years.

The law is important for settling a dispute between Baghdad and the regional government in Kurdistan, as the Iraqi government doesn't recognize many deals signed by the Kurds with foreign companies. It wants to review these deals and bring them in line with oil laws valid in Baghdad.

What cha hearing about this article Rev? [link to dinarvets.com]

Just a decimal point in the wrong place. So many people in Dinarland have people in Iraq, there's no way this wouldn't be confirmed by now.

Last Edited by ReVbo™ on 10/05/2012 05:54 PM

K... ty

"Near future" is kind of a new one for them. It sounds like it means something better than "coming days" but who ever knows with these people? I'm just taking it as confirmation that our investment will appreciate and, since he seems to be talking about the current dinar, and not some future dinar yet to be printed, that they aren't planning an l-word.


Incidentally, if you type the l-word now, GLP tells you "you suck."




Central likely rebound soon dinar

CBI likely improve the Iraqi dinar against foreign currency in the near future. The deputy governor appearance of Dr. Mohammed Saleh, said that the development of the Iraqi dinar began improving in front of the international currency difficult and will improve more during the next few as a result of increased oil production, which Seder substantial financial resources of hard currency, making the country away from the global economic crisis and Saleh pointed out that the inverse relationship between the dollar and gold, when rising dollar lowers the value of gold and vice versa, stressing that the global crisis that hit Europe and America has made the demand for gold is increasing for adoption buffer stock of wealth preservation led to an increase in its price in the world markets with the devaluation of the dollar. He added that some countries when you see the unstable situation of the dollar in trading world they sheltering other alternatives and يتحوطون them are either gold or oil or food viable storage, pointing out that the gold the best alternative to the dollar to maintain the global wealth in the same context confirmed member of the House of Representatives Najiba Najib that the process of smuggling money abroad violating regulations and instructions issued by the Central Bank had a negative impact on the national economy. Najib said the smuggling operation funds reflected the increase in the exchange rate of the U.S. dollar against the Iraqi dinar which affects the country's economy She said Iraq's economy is still economical ريعيا depends 93% on oil, which is sold in dollars, as well as the fact that imports are in hard currency, and these factors played a major role in the exit of hard currency from the country, as well as the fact that a country's political, economic and security has big role in currency smuggling out of Iraq. She pointed out that Iraq's geographical location next to Syria and Iran and what is happening in the region has had a clear influence in the exit of foreign currency abroad, especially since these two countries are suffering from the siege internationalist and a shortage of hard currency resources. Finished / 2





[link to translate.google.com]

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Last Edited by ReVbo™ on 10/08/2012 03:10 PM

So this isn't happening until 2014 now?


.....

there will 1 middle east currency by then,

Wrap it up, this one is done

Put the gun down. Here's Kaperoni's take on it. 2014 is the end of the process, after the zeros have been fully removed. RV or free float is the beginning.

314, GCC common currency is the next part of the plan. They are talking about it, but it's not gonna happen for a while.


Kaperoni: There is a very good chance that Iraq will not introduce the "new currency" till end of 2013 or sometime in 2014. But that has nothing to do with us as they must raise the value first. And it makes no difference in the budget until the value is greater than the USD. Once the value is greater than the USD, that is when they will make it "official" and start a new year with it on a legal level. Example, the dinar could be worth .10, .50, or even .86 all through 2013. Then in Jan 2014, they could declare "we have deleted the zeros" and all transactions and accounting records are adjusted accordingly as Saleh states. Another example could be a RV at a staging rate of 1 to $1 leaving it in place for 6-12 months as they transition from the current currency to the new currency....and then in Jan 2014 declare..."we have deleted the zeros". So you can see, the "actual declaring" is simply a date in which zeros are removed and goes into effect in country and more than likely would be at the beginning of a year but has nothing to do with us as most of us will cash out at some rate we are comfortable with.

Last Edited by ReVbo™ on 10/08/2012 03:50 PM

"currency after deletion of zeros three of them is essential for it would serve the citizen and the national economy, considering that groups large will turn into a thousand small unit,"

[link to dinaralert.webs.com]

i.e. 25000 note becomes a thousand 25 notes in redenomination, not one 25 note.

The question is when....

Well, at least a dialogue is becoming an on going occurrence, that in it self seems positive. Yes, when is the question and has been for quite some time. sk

Do you remember a few pages back that someone said there are no new U.S. bills past 2009. Look at the new $100 dollar bill? Notice the date is 2009. I can't recall what it had to do with Dinars but thought it was interesting.

[link to www.roadtoroota.com]

I've heard a lot of talk about that theory, especially here. The conspiracy side of me wants to believe it's because our currency will be gold-backed in the future. The realist side knows that Ben Bernanke and his crew ain't going anywhere without a fight, though.

I think the 2009 date on the bills is because 2009 is when that series was created, and doesn't represent the year the bills were printed.

What are you hearing on this Rev?

Seems restrictions on IQD have been loosened. Will likely result in better rates for secondary markets.

[link to www.brecorder...ng]

Read more: [link to dinarvets.com]

I sent that to Kap's admin, who tells me it's an older article and only referring to the difference between the street rate and the official rate.

Ok thanks Rev!

It's rare that I get to dabble in conspiracy in Dinarland, but I got a chance today. Any thoughts?

[link to dinaralert.webs.com]

Haitham al-Jubouri called "central" to raise the value of the Iraqi dinar against the dollar

Special Reports

Baghdad and agencies

Wednesday, October 10 / October 2012 10:10:11 GMT

A member of a coalition of state law, MP Haitham al-Jubouri that the Iraqi currency recent بالآونة witnessed great volatility represented in the low price of the Iraqi dinar against the U.S. dollar and this dire economic damaging of all citizens calling on the central bank to work on raising the value of the Iraqi dinar against the U.S. dollar exchange rate.

Jubouri said the central bank should take its role in this issue as the issue price of the dinar based on supply and demand and therefore must move toward maintaining the value of the Iraqi dinar and the equivalence in U.S. dollars.

Jubouri said it is necessary to do no harm Iraqi dinar and the national economy as a whole. Before the adoption of the budget in 2012 in order to budget properly determined. Adding that currency volatility prices borne by the central bank and traders.



[link to translate.google.com]

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Revbo:
Just thinking out loud here, but this could be Jabouri and Maliki trying to position themselves as the good guys in Iraq against the CBI. So, they attack the CBI as corrupt and, by demanding an increase in the value of the dinar, they're telling the Iraqis that it's the CBI, not GOI, who's keeping them poor. If they're really going to make a run at the CBI, they need the population on their side, and it's been my understanding, for a while, that the average Iraqi likes the central bank and doesn't much care for the government.

Again, just throwing this out there, but follow me down the conspiracy path for a moment. What if Jabouri knows Shabibi is gonna pull the trigger in a few days (Our 17 days is almost up*), and he's trying to get out ahead of it, so he can claim credit when it happens? So, he threatens Shabibi with corruption charges and demands an increase. Then, when Shabibi does it, Jabouri can claim it was because of pressure he applied. Shabiibi ends up looking like he backed down, and Jabouri is the hero.

*The 17 days reference is from Kaperoni mentioning, about two weeks ago, that his contact had told him that there was a "trading platform" established to trade dinar after the float happens, and that they needed 17 days to get the systems online and training done. If you frequent Dinar Vets, you would have seen, yesterday, he told Shredd, of Bondlady's site, that he had seen the trading room.

Kaperoni's post on this article from the thread at DinarAlert:
IMO they are clearly not talking about raising the value from 1200 dinars or so to 1166 when the article talks specifically about the adoption of the budget. The budget articles clearly show 10-20 trillion deficit not to mention an increase in "investment" next year of about 6 trillion dinars. Iraq needs to make the dinar internationally convertible at a rate that will begin to benefit them not only on the budget, but other areas such as the ISX, WTO, etc. They will never prosper and bring any wealth to the people until that occurs. This article is asking the CBI to raise the value...or begin the free float. We are talking about a substantial increase.

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Last Edited by ReVbo™ on 10/10/2012 09:41 PM

Sounds good to me Rev.

How is it that Kap sees the trading room? What does that mean? He is a trader... yes? Can you expand on that?

I do so appreciate your input Rev!

Wish I knew. Some of us think Ali is his guy. Kap was in Vegas a few months ago, and all this talk started around then.

[link to dinarvets.com]

Thoughts on this?

Nice analysis, we can only hope it goes down this way as it would mean we cash in sooner than later. sk

It seems likely that there will be two rates, with both currencies existing side by side. For example, current IQD .00086, new IQD .86, appreciating to $1=1 dinar. It won't make you millionaires, but you'll see a 14% gain and possibly higher if it appreciates from there. How long it will take for the 1=1 rate is anyone's guess.